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Макроэкономика - раздел современной экономической теории, в рамках которого изучаются такие феномены как экономический рост, колебания деловой активности, инфляция и безработица, а также вопросы макроэкономической политики. (подробнее...)

NBER Working Paper Series

Borders and Growth [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 14-03-2005
Enrico Spolaore, Romain Wacziarg NBER Working Paper Series. 2002.  No. 9223.
This paper presents a framework to understand and measure the effects of political borders on economic growth and per capita income levels. We present a model providing a theoretical foundation to estimate empirically the effects of political borders on growth. In our model, political integration between two countries results in a positive country size effect and a negative effect through reduced openness vis-…-vis the rest of the world. We estimate the growth effects that would have resulted from the hypothetical removal of national borders between pairs of adjacent countries. We also identify country pairs where political integration would have been mutually beneficial.
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Опубликовано на портале: 14-03-2005
Ricardo J. Caballero, Mohamad L. Hammour NBER Working Paper Series. 2000.  No. 7849.
There is increasing empirical evidence that creative destruction, driven by experimentation and the adoption of new products and processes when investment is sunk, is a core mechanism of development. Obstacles to this process are likely to be obstacles to the progress in standards of living. Generically, underdeveloped and politicized institutions are a major impediment to a well-functioning creative destruction process, and result in sluggish creation, technological sclerosis,' and spurious reallocation. Those ills reflect the macroeconomic consequences of contracting failures in the presence of sunk investments. Recurrent crises are another major obstacle to creative destruction. The common inference that increased liquidations during crises result in increased restructuring is unwarranted. Indications are, to the contrary, that crises freeze the restructuring process and that this is associated with the tight financial-market conditions that follow. This productivity cost of recessions adds to the traditional costs of resource under-utilization.
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Опубликовано на портале: 16-11-2004
Gernot Doppelhofer, Xavier Sala-i-Martin, Ronald I. Miller NBER Working Paper Series. 2000.  w7750.
This paper examines the robustness of explanatory variables in cross-country economic growth regressions. It employs a novel approach, Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE), which constructs estimates as a weighted average of OLS estimates for every possible combination of included variables. The weights applied to individual regressions are justified on Bayesian grounds in a way similar to the well-known Schwarz criterion. Of 32 explanatory variables we find 11 to be robustly partially correlated with long-term growth and another five variables to be marginally related. Of all the variables considered, the strongest evidence is for the initial level of real GDP per capita.
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Опубликовано на портале: 16-11-2004
Geert Bekaert, Campbell R. Harvey, Christian Lundblad NBER Working Paper Series. 2001.  w8245.
We show that equity market liberalizations, on average, lead to a one percent increase in annual real economic growth over a five-year period. The liberalization effect is not spuriously accounted for by macro-economic reforms and does not reflect a business cycle effect. Although financial liberalizations further financial development, measures of financial development fail to fully drive out the liberalization effect. The investment/GDP ratio increases post liberalization, with the investment partially financed by foreign capital inducing worsened trade balances. Differentiating across liberalizing countries, a large secondary school enrollment, a small government sector and an Anglo-Saxon legal system tend to enhance the liberalization effect. Finally, the conditional convergence effect is larger once financial liberalization is accounted for.
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Опубликовано на портале: 05-10-2004
Sebastian Edwards, I. Igal Magendzo NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. 
In this paper we analyze the macroeconomic record of dollarized economies. In particular, we investigating whether, as its supporters' claim, dollarization is associated with lower inflation and faster growth. We analyze this issue by using a matching estimator technique developed in the training evaluation literature. Our findings suggest that inflation has been significantly lower in dollarized nations than in non-dollarized ones. We also find that dollarized nations have had a lower rate of economic growth than non-dollarized ones. Finally, we find that macroeconomic volatility is not significantly different across dollarized and non-dollarized economies. We conjecture that the lower rate of economic growth in dollarized countries is due, at least in part, to these countries' difficulties in accommodating external disturbances, such as major term of trade and capital flows shocks.
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Опубликовано на портале: 11-08-2004
Olivier Jean Blanchard, Philippe Weil NBER Working Paper Series. 1992.  w3992.
Can government roll their debt over in dynamically efficient economies, and thus avoid the need to raise taxes? While the answer is a clear "no" under certainty, it depends, under uncertainty, on whether public debt provides intergenerational insurance. When it does not, rollover is not possible, even if the rate of return on one-period bonds is below the growth rate. When it does, debt rollover may be possible if the return on one-period bonds is above the growth rate.
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Опубликовано на портале: 14-03-2005
David E. Bloom, David Canning, Jaypee Sevilla NBER Working Paper Series. 2001.  No. 8685.
For decades, economists and social thinkers have debated the influence of population change on economic growth. Three alternative positions define this debate: that population growth restricts, promotes, or is independent of economic growth. Proponents of each explanation can find evidence to support their cases. All of these explanations, however, focus on population size and growth. In recent years, however, the debate has under-emphasized a critical issue, the age structure of the population (that is, the way in which the population is distributed across different age groups), which can change dramatically as the population grows. Because people's economic behavior varies at different stages of life, changes in a country's age structure can have significant effects on its economic performance. Nations with a high proportion of children are likely to devote a high proportion of resources to their care, which tends to depress the pace of economic growth. By contrast, if most of a nation's population falls within the working ages, the added productivity of this group can produce a 'demographic dividend' of economic growth, assuming that policies to take advantage of this are in place. In fact, the combined effect of this large working-age population and health, family, labor, financial, and human capital policies can create virtuous cycles of wealth creation. And if a large proportion of a nation's population consists of the elderly, the effects can be similar to those of a very young population. A large share of resources is needed by a relatively less productive segment of the population, which likewise can inhibit economic growth. After tracing the history of theories of the effects of population growth, this report reviews evidence on the relevance of changes in age structure for economic growth. It also examines the relationship between population change and economic development in particular regions of the world: East Asia; Japan; OECD, North America and Western Europe; South-central and Southeast Asia; Latin America; Middle East and North Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. Finally, it discusses the key policy variables that, combined with reduced fertility and increases in the working-age population, have contributed to economic growth in some areas of the developing world.
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Опубликовано на портале: 17-09-2004
Robert J. Barro NBER Working Paper Series. 2001.  w8330.
In 1997-98, five east Asian countries - Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea, the Philippines, and Thailand - experienced sharp currency and banking crises. The contraction of real GDP was severe in relation to the previous history and in comparison with five east Asian countries that were less affected by the financial crisis. Recoveries in the five crisis countries in 1999-2000 were strong in most cases, but it is unclear whether the pre-crisis growth paths will be reattained. Indications for permanently depressed prospects come from the sharp reductions in investment ratios, which have recovered only slightly, and the lowered stock-market prices. A panel analysis for a broad group of economies shows that a combined currency and banking crisis typically reduces economic growth over a five-year period by 2% per year, compared with 3% per year for the 1997-98 crisis in east Asia. The broader analysis found no evidence that financial crises had effects on growth that persisted beyond a five-year period.
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Опубликовано на портале: 05-10-2004
Alan B. Krueger, Mikael Lindahl NBER Working Paper Series. 2000. 
This paper tries to reconcile evidence from the microeconometric and empirical macro growth literatures on the effect of schooling on income and GDP growth. Much microeconometric evidence suggest that education is an important causal determinant of income for individuals within countries. At a national level, however, recent studies have found that increases in educational attainment are unrelated to economic growth. This finding appears to be a spurious result of the extremely high rate of measurement error in first-differenced cross-country education data. After accounting for measurement error, the effect of changes in educational attainment on income growth in cross-country data is at least as great as microeconometric estimates of the rate of return to years of schooling. Another finding of the macro growth literature - that economic growth depends positively on the initial stock of human capital - is shown to result from imposing linearity and constant-coefficient assumptions on the estimates. These restrictions are often rejected by the data, and once either assumption is relaxed the initial level of education has little effect on economic growth for the average country.
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Опубликовано на портале: 15-11-2004
Geert Bekaert, Campbell R. Harvey, Christian Lundblad NBER Working Paper Series. 2000.  w7763.
We provide an analysis of real economic growth prospects in emerging markets after financial liberalizations. In contrast with previous research, we identify the financial liberalization dates and examine the influence of liberalizations while controlling for a number of other macroeconomic and financial variables. Our work also introduces an econometric methodology that allows us to use extensive time-series as well as cross-sectional information for our tests. We find across a number of different specifications that financial liberalizations are associated with significant increases in real economic growth.
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Опубликовано на портале: 17-09-2004
Peter L. Rousseau, Richard Sylla NBER Working Paper Series. 2001.  w8323.
This paper brings together two strands of the economic literature -- that on the finance-growth nexus and that on capital market integration -- and explores key issues surrounding each strand through both institutional/country histories and formal quantitative analysis. We begin with studies of the Dutch Republic, England, the U.S., France, Germany and Japan that span three centuries, detailing how in each case the emergence of a financial system jump-started economic growth. Using a cross-country panel of seventeen countries covering the 1850-1997 period, we then uncover a robust correlation between financial factors and economic growth that is consistent with a leading role for finance, and show that these effects were strongest over the 80 years preceding the Great Depression. Next, we show that countries with more sophisticated financial systems engage in more trade and appear to be better integrated with other economies by identifying roles for both finance and trade in the convergence of interest rates that occurred among the Atlantic economies prior to 1914. Our results suggest that the growth and increasing globalization of these economies might indeed have been 'finance-led.'
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Опубликовано на портале: 15-11-2004
Peter L. Rousseau, Richard Sylla NBER Working Paper Series. 2001.  w8323.
This paper brings together two strands of the economic literature -- that on the finance-growth nexus and that on capital market integration -- and explores key issues surrounding each strand through both institutional/country histories and formal quantitative analysis. We begin with studies of the Dutch Republic, England, the U.S., France, Germany and Japan that span three centuries, detailing how in each case the emergence of a financial system jump-started economic growth. Using a cross-country panel of seventeen countries covering the 1850-1997 period, we then uncover a robust correlation between financial factors and economic growth that is consistent with a leading role for finance, and show that these effects were strongest over the 80 years preceding the Great Depression. Next, we show that countries with more sophisticated financial systems engage in more trade and appear to be better integrated with other economies by identifying roles for both finance and trade in the convergence of interest rates that occurred among the Atlantic economies prior to 1914. Our results suggest that the growth and increasing globalization of these economies might indeed have been 'finance-led.'
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Опубликовано на портале: 18-08-2004
William Easterly, Sergio Rebelo NBER Working Paper Series. 1994.  w4499.
This paper describes the empirical regularities relating fiscal policy variables, the level of development and the rate of growth. We employ historical data, recent cross-section data, and newly constructed public investment series. Our main findings are: (i) there is a strong association between the development level and the fiscal structure: poor countries rely heavily on international trade taxes, while income taxes are only important in developed economies; (ii) fiscal policy is influenced by the scale of the economy, measured by its population; (iii) investment in transport and communication is consistently correlated with growth while the effects of taxation are difficult to isolate empirically.
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Опубликовано на портале: 18-08-2004
Michael J. Boskin, Lawrence J. Lau NBER Working Paper Series. 2000.  w8023.
Using revised, updated, and consistent annual post-World War II data from the G-7 countries developed by us, we econometrically estimate and test alternative explanations of the structure of economic growth in a model with three inputs tangible capital, labor, and human capital which permits the identification of the magnitudes of and biases in both returns to scale and technical progress. We find: 1. Technical progress is simultaneously purely tangible capital and human capital augmenting, that is, generalized Solow-neutral.' This finding provides an alternative explanation of the slow pace of convergence in real GDP per capita: the benefits from technical progress depend directly on the levels of tangible and human capital; countries with higher levels of capital realize higher rates of technical progress.2. Technical progress has been capital, not labor, saving and thus is not a cause of systemic structural unemployment. 3. Technical progress accounts for more than 50 percent of the economic growth of the G-7 countries except Canada. Tangible capital input is next most important; together with technical progress, they account for three quarters or more of the growth of real output in the G-7 countries, except Canada. 4. The most important source of the growth slowdown since the mid-1970's decline in the rate of capital (both tangible and human)-augmenting technical progress.
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Опубликовано на портале: 15-11-2004
Larry Jones, Rodolfo Manuelli, Henry Siu NBER Working Paper Series. 2000.  w7633.
Our purpose in this paper is to present a class of convex endogenous growth models, and to analyze their performance in terms of both growth and business cycle criteria. The models we study have close analogs in the real business cycle literature. In fact, we interpret the exogenous growth rate of productivity as an endogenous growth rate of human capital. This perspective allows us to compare the strengths of both classes of models. In order to highlight the mechanism that gives endogenous growth models the ability to improve upon their exogenous growth relatives, we study models that are symmetric in terms of human and physical capital formation -- our two engines of growth. More precisely, we analyze models in which the technology used to produce human capital is identical to the technologies used to produce consumption and investment goods, and in which the technology shocks in the two sectors are perfectly correlated. We find that endogenous growth models can generate levels of labor volatility close to those observed in the data, as well as positively correlated growth rates of output. We also find that these models outperform a related exogenous growth version in most dimensions.
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