Journal of Political Economy
1925 1942 1964 1973 1974 1978 1979 1980 1981 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1989 1991 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2004 2007
Опубликовано на портале: 25-10-2007Craig A. Burnside, Martin Stewart Eichenbaum, Sergio Rebelo Journal of Political Economy. 2001. Vol. 109. No. 6. P. 1155–1197.
This paper argues that a principal cause of the 1997 Asian currency crisis was large prospective deficits associated with implicit bailout guarantees to failing banking systems. The expectation that these future deficits would be at least partially financed by seigniorage revenues or an inflation tax on outstanding nominal debt led to a collapse of the fixed exchange rate regimes in Asia. We articulate this view using a simple model whose key feature is that a speculative attack is inevitable once the present value of future government deficits rises. We present empirical evidence in support of the key assumptions underlying our interpretation of the crisis
Опубликовано на портале: 25-10-2007Herminio Blanco, Peter Garber Journal of Political Economy. 1986. Vol. 94. No. 1. P. 148-166.
We generate an empirical method aimed at predicting the timing and magnitude of devaluations forced by speculative attacks on fixed exchange rate systems. Using the Mexican experience as an example, we produce time-series estimates of the one-period-ahead probability of devaluation, the expected value of the new fixed exchange rate, and the confidence interval of the forecasted exchange rate. The results of the empirical exercise are encouraging. Devaluations, both in and out of sample, did occur when "predicted" by the model. Furthermore, the probabilities of devaluation reached relatively high values prior to actual devaluations