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Макроэкономика - раздел современной экономической теории, в рамках которого изучаются такие феномены как экономический рост, колебания деловой активности, инфляция и безработица, а также вопросы макроэкономической политики. (подробнее...)

Journal of Political Economy

Опубликовано на портале: 25-10-2007
Craig A. Burnside, Martin Stewart Eichenbaum, Sergio Rebelo Journal of Political Economy. 2001.  Vol. 109. No. 6. P. 1155–1197. 
This paper argues that a principal cause of the 1997 Asian currency crisis was large prospective deficits associated with implicit bailout guarantees to failing banking systems. The expectation that these future deficits would be at least partially financed by seigniorage revenues or an inflation tax on outstanding nominal debt led to a collapse of the fixed exchange rate regimes in Asia. We articulate this view using a simple model whose key feature is that a speculative attack is inevitable once the present value of future government deficits rises. We present empirical evidence in support of the key assumptions underlying our interpretation of the crisis
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Опубликовано на портале: 25-10-2007
Herminio Blanco, Peter Garber Journal of Political Economy. 1986.  Vol. 94. No. 1. P. 148-166. 
We generate an empirical method aimed at predicting the timing and magnitude of devaluations forced by speculative attacks on fixed exchange rate systems. Using the Mexican experience as an example, we produce time-series estimates of the one-period-ahead probability of devaluation, the expected value of the new fixed exchange rate, and the confidence interval of the forecasted exchange rate. The results of the empirical exercise are encouraging. Devaluations, both in and out of sample, did occur when "predicted" by the model. Furthermore, the probabilities of devaluation reached relatively high values prior to actual devaluations
ресурс содержит полный текст, либо отрывок из него