NBER Working Paper Series
A Cure Worse Than the Disease? Currency Crises and the Output Costs of IMF-Supported Stabilization Programs [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 15-11-2004Michael M. Hutchison NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. w8305.
This paper investigates the output effects of IMF-supported stabilization programs, especially those introduced at the time of a severe balance of payments/currency crisis. Using a panel data set over the 1975-97 period and covering 67 developing and emerging-market economies (with 461 IMF stabilization programs and 160 currency crises), we find that currency crises even after controlling for macroeconomic developments, political and regional factors significantly reduce output growth for 1-2 years. Output growth is also lower (0.7 percentage points annually) during IMF-stabilization programs, but it appears that growth generally slows prior to implementation of the program. Moreover, programs coinciding with recent balance of payments or currency crises do not appear to further damage short-run growth prospects. Countries participating in IMF programs significantly reduce domestic credit growth, but no effect is found on budget policy. Applying this model to the collapse of output in East Asia following the 1997 crisis, we find that the unexpected (forecast error) collapse of output in Malaysia where an IMF-program was not followed-- was similar in magnitude to those countries adopting IMF programs (Indonesia, Korea, Philippines and Thailand).
Опубликовано на портале: 11-11-2004Ricardo J. Caballero, Arvind Krishnamurthy NBER Working Paper Series. 2002. w8758.
The last few years have seen a significant re-evaluation of the models used to analyze crises in emerging markets. Recent models typically stress financial constraints or distorted financial incentives. While this certainly represents progress, these models share a weakness with the earlier work: neither is uniquely about emerging markets. Adaptations of the Mundell-Fleming model represent Argentina as a Belgium with larger external shocks. Likewise, emerging market models of financial constraints are adaptations of developed economy ones with tighter financial constraints. In our work, we have advocated a model which distinguishes between the financial constraints affecting borrowing and lending among agents within an emerging economy, and those affecting borrowing from foreign lenders. This 'dual liquidity' model offers a parsimonious description of the behavior of firms, governments, and asset prices during financial crises. It also provides prescriptions for optimal policy responses to these crises.
Опубликовано на портале: 11-11-2004Sebastian Edwards NBER Working Paper Series. 1998. w6800.
This paper deals with some of the most important aspects of Latin America's experience with capital flows during the last twenty-five years. The paper begins with a historical analysis. I then deal with the sequencing of reform and discuss issues related to the relationship between capital flows, real exchange rates, and international competitiveness. I next concentrate on the role of capital controls as a device for isolating emerging economies from the volatility of international capital markets. I begin by reviewing the policy issues and the current debate on the subject. I then present an empirical analysis of Chile's recent experiences with capital controls and make some comparisons to the recent experiences of Columbia. The analysis of the Chilean experience is particularly important since its practice of imposing reserves requirements on capital inflows has been praised by a number of analysts, including senior staff of the multilateral institutions, as an effective and efficient way of reducing the vulnerability associated with capital flows volatility. The results obtained suggest that capital controls in Chile have had mixed results: while they have allowed the Central Bank to have a greater degree of control over short term interest rates, they have failed in avoiding real exchange rate appreciation. The paper ends with some reflections, based on recent Latin American historical episodes, on the role of banks in intermediating capital inflows and on financial crises.
Опубликовано на портале: 14-03-2005Ricardo J. Caballero, Mohamad L. Hammour NBER Working Paper Series. 2000. No. 7849.
There is increasing empirical evidence that creative destruction, driven by experimentation and the adoption of new products and processes when investment is sunk, is a core mechanism of development. Obstacles to this process are likely to be obstacles to the progress in standards of living. Generically, underdeveloped and politicized institutions are a major impediment to a well-functioning creative destruction process, and result in sluggish creation, technological sclerosis,' and spurious reallocation. Those ills reflect the macroeconomic consequences of contracting failures in the presence of sunk investments. Recurrent crises are another major obstacle to creative destruction. The common inference that increased liquidations during crises result in increased restructuring is unwarranted. Indications are, to the contrary, that crises freeze the restructuring process and that this is associated with the tight financial-market conditions that follow. This productivity cost of recessions adds to the traditional costs of resource under-utilization.
Опубликовано на портале: 11-11-2004Sebastian Edwards NBER Working Paper Series. 2002. w8939.
In this paper I analyze the relationship between fiscal policy, aggregate public sector debt sustainability, and debt relief. I develop a methodology to compute the fiscal policy path that is compatible with aggregate debt sustainability in the post-HIPC era. The model explicitly considers the role of domestic debt, and quantifies the extent to which future debt sustainability depends on the availability of concessional loans at subsidized interest rates. The working of the model is illustrated for the case of Nicaragua, a country that in 2002 had one of the highest net present value of public external debt to GDP ratios.
Debt Restructuring [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 11-11-2004Benjamin M. Friedman NBER Working Paper Series. 2000. w7722.
What difference does it make, and for whom, whether the nonperforming debts of emerging market borrowers are restructured? This paper begins by positing a set of counterfactual conditions under which restructuring would not matter, and then shows how several ways in which the actual world of international lending departs from these conditions give both lenders and borrowers ample reason to care whether nonperforming debts are restructured. One implication of the way in which debt restructuring matters is that restructuring should not be too' easy. Further, with a greater frequency of defaults, some credit flows to emerging market countries would not be extended in the first place. An important element driving this line of argument is moral hazard, but (unlike in much of the recent literature of emerging market debt problems) what is central here is not the availability of credit from the IMF or other official lenders but the more fundamental moral hazard inherent in all uncollateralized borrower-lender relationships.
Опубликовано на портале: 16-11-2004Geert Bekaert, Campbell R. Harvey, Christian Lundblad NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. w8245.
We show that equity market liberalizations, on average, lead to a one percent increase in annual real economic growth over a five-year period. The liberalization effect is not spuriously accounted for by macro-economic reforms and does not reflect a business cycle effect. Although financial liberalizations further financial development, measures of financial development fail to fully drive out the liberalization effect. The investment/GDP ratio increases post liberalization, with the investment partially financed by foreign capital inducing worsened trade balances. Differentiating across liberalizing countries, a large secondary school enrollment, a small government sector and an Anglo-Saxon legal system tend to enhance the liberalization effect. Finally, the conditional convergence effect is larger once financial liberalization is accounted for.
Опубликовано на портале: 11-08-2004Olivier Jean Blanchard, Philippe Weil NBER Working Paper Series. 1992. w3992.
Can government roll their debt over in dynamically efficient economies, and thus avoid the need to raise taxes? While the answer is a clear "no" under certainty, it depends, under uncertainty, on whether public debt provides intergenerational insurance. When it does not, rollover is not possible, even if the rate of return on one-period bonds is below the growth rate. When it does, debt rollover may be possible if the return on one-period bonds is above the growth rate.
Опубликовано на портале: 11-11-2004Sebastian Edwards, Miguel A. Savastano NBER Working Paper Series. 1999. w7228.
Exchange rates have been at the center of economic debates in emerging economies. Issues related to the feasibility of flexible exchange rates, the relationship between exchange rate volatility and growth, and the role of exchange rate overvaluation in recent crises, among other, have been extensively discussed during the last few years. In this paper we address some of the most important exchange rate-related issues in emerging economies. In particular, we deal with: (a) the merits of alternative exchange rate regimes: (b) the extent to which purchasing power parity holds in the long run in these countries; and (c) models to assess real exchange rate overvaluation. We also discuss future areas for research on exchange rates in the emerging nations.
Опубликовано на портале: 14-03-2005Stephen G. Cecchetti, Stefan Krause NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. No. 8354.
Over the past twenty years, macroeconomic performance has improved markedly in industrialized and developing countries alike. Both inflation and real growth are more stable now than they were in the 1980s. This stability has been accompanied by dramatic changes in financial structure. We examine the connection between these concurrent events using data from 23 developed and emerging markets countries. There are a number of possible explanations for the widespread improvement in economic outcomes over the past two decades. There is the very real possibility that the world has become a more stable place. Alternatively, monetary policymakers may have become more skillful in carry out their stabilization objectives. That is, the monetary policy of the 1990s may have been more efficient than it was in the 1980s. We provide evidence that policy has in fact improved, suggesting that a rise in the competence of central bankers. But the ability of policymakers to carry out their job depends crucially on their having the tools necessary to reduce inflation and output volatility. The transmission of these interest rate movements to domestic output and prices depends on the structure of the country's banking system and financial markets. We show that a reduction in direct state ownership of banking system assets and the introduction of explicit deposit insurance can help explain the simultaneous improvement in the efficiency of monetary policy and stabilization of the macroeconomy.
Опубликовано на портале: 18-08-2004William Easterly, Sergio Rebelo NBER Working Paper Series. 1994. w4499.
This paper describes the empirical regularities relating fiscal policy variables, the level of development and the rate of growth. We employ historical data, recent cross-section data, and newly constructed public investment series. Our main findings are: (i) there is a strong association between the development level and the fiscal structure: poor countries rely heavily on international trade taxes, while income taxes are only important in developed economies; (ii) fiscal policy is influenced by the scale of the economy, measured by its population; (iii) investment in transport and communication is consistently correlated with growth while the effects of taxation are difficult to isolate empirically.
Опубликовано на портале: 15-11-2004Dani Rodrik NBER Working Paper Series. 2000. w7540.
This paper opens with a discussion of the types of institutions that allow markets to perform adequately. While we can identify in broad terms what these are, there is no unique mapping between markets and the non-market institutions that underpin them. The paper emphasizes the importance of local knowledge' and argues that a strategy of institution building must not over-emphasize best-practice blueprint' at the expense of experimentation. Participatory political systems are the most effective ones for processing and aggregating local knowledge. Democracy is a meta-institution for building good institutions. A range of evidence indicates that participatory democracies enable higher-quality growth.
Опубликовано на портале: 13-10-2004Ricardo J. Caballero, Mohamad L. Hammour NBER Working Paper Series. 2000.
A growing body of new research has emphasized the macroeconomic consequences of transactional impediments in factor markets, and their role in the recurrent restructuring requirements of modern economies. We first review the function institutional arrangements play in facilitating transactions and explore the macroeconomic consequences of poor institutions. As an application, we discuss the lessons that can be learnt from observed changes in the nature of unemployment in Europe. We then analyze the effect the institutional environment can have on macroeconomic restructuring. In light of this framework we revisit the question of the relationship between recessions and restructuring activity, and review the recent evidence of reduced restructuring following recessions. We also discuss corroborating evidence from merger waves' in the restructuring of corporate assets.
Опубликовано на портале: 16-11-2004Robert J. Gordon NBER Working Paper Series. 2000. w7752.
This paper assesses the standard data on output, labor input, and capital input, which imply one big wave' in multi-factor productivity (MFP) growth for the United States since 1870. The wave-like pattern starts with slow MFP growth in the late 19th century, then an acceleration peaking in 1928-50, and then a deceleration to a slow rate after 1972 that returns to the poor performance of 1870-1891. A counterpart of the standard data is a mysterious doubling in the ratio of output to capital input when the postwar era is compared with 1870-1929. Three types of measurement adjustments are applied to the standard input data. Following the lead of Denison and Jorgenson-Griliches, adjustments for the changing composition (or quality') of labor and capital, currently published by the BLS back to 1948, are estimated for 1870-1948. These composition adjustments take into account the shifting mix of the labor force along the dimensions of education and age-sex composition, and of the capital stock between equipment and structures. Further adjustments are made to capital input data to allow retirement to vary with gross investment rather than to follow a fixed pattern depending only on age, and to add types of capital owned by the government that are particularly productive in the private sector. A new MFP series taking account of all these adjustments grows more slowly throughout, and the big wave' phenomenon is both flatter and extends back further in time to 1891. However, there is no solution to the post-1972 productivity slowdown, and in the new data MFP growth during 1972-96 proceeds at a pathetic 0.1 percent per year. A byproduct of the measurement adjustments is to solve completely the previous puzzle of the jump in the output-capital ratio; in the new data this ratio is actually lower in 1996 than in 1870. The primary substantive explanation for the big wave lies in the timing of inventions. MFP growth during the big wave' period benefited from the diffusion of four great clusters of inventions that dwarf today's information technology revolution in their combined importance. A complementary hypothesis is that the partial closing of American labor markets to immigration and of American goods markets to imports during the big wave period gave an artificial and temporary boost to real wages which fed back into boosting productivity growth, followed by a reopening that contributed to the post-1972 productivity slowdown.
Опубликовано на портале: 17-09-2004Matthew B. Canzoneri, Robert E. Cumby, Behzad T. Diba NBER Working Paper Series. 1998. No. 6471.
A new theory of price determination suggests that if primary surpluses are independent of the level of debt, the price level has to jump' to assure fiscal solvency. In this regime (which we call Fiscal Dominant), monetary policy has to work through seignorage to control the price level. If on the other hand primary surpluses are expected to respond to the level of debt in a way that assures fiscal solvency (a regime we call Money Dominant), then the price level is determined in more conventional ways. In this paper we develop testable restrictions that differentiate between the two regimes. Using post war data, we present what we think is overwhelming evidence that the United States is in a Money Dominant regime; even the post Reagan data (1980 to 1995) seem to support that contention.