Статьи
Всего статей в данном разделе : 14
A Debt Puzzle [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 25-08-2003
David Laibson, Jeremy Tobacman, Andrea Repetto
Over 60% of US households with credit cards are currently borrowing -- i.e., paying
interest -- on those cards. We attempt to reconcile the high rate of credit card
borrowing with observed levels of life cycle wealth accumulation. We simulate a lifecycle
model with five properties that create demand for credit card borrowing. First, the
calibrated labor income path slopes upward early in life. Second, income has transitory
shocks. Third, consumers invest actively in an illiquid asset, which is sufficiently
illiquid that it can not be used to smooth transitory income shocks. Fourth, consumers
may declare bankruptcy, reducing the effective cost of credit card borrowing. Fifth,
households have relatively more dependents early in the life-cycle. Our calibrated
model predicts that 20% of the population will borrow on their credit card at any
point in time, far less than the observed rate of over 60%. We identify a resolution
to this puzzle: hyperbolic time preferences. Simulated hyperbolic consumers borrow
actively in the revolving credit card market and accumulate relatively large stocks
of illiquid wealth, matching observed data.



Опубликовано на портале: 02-12-2007
Olivier Cadot, Lars-Hendrik Röller, Andreas Stephan
DIW Berlin Discussion Papers.
2004.
No. 458.
This paper proposes a simultaneous-equation approach to the estimation of the contribution
of transport infrastructure accumulation to regional growth. We model explicitly
the political-economy process driving infrastructure investments; in doing so, we
eliminate a potential source of bias in production-function estimates and generate
testable hypotheses on the forces that shape infrastructure policy. Our empirical
findings on a panel of France's regions over 1985-92 suggest that electoral concerns
and influence activities were, indeed, significant determinants of the cross-regional
allocation of transportation infrastructure investments. By contrast, we find little
evidence of concern for the maximization of economic returns to infrastructure spending,
even after controlling for pork-barrel.


Опубликовано на портале: 18-09-2003
Matthew D. Shapiro, Valerie A. Ramey
Changes in government spending often lead to significant shifts in demand across
sectors. This paper analyzes the effects of sector-specific changes in government
spending in a two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model in which the reallocation
of capital across sectors is costly. The two-sector model leads to a richer array
of possible responses of aggregate variables than the one-sector model. The empirical
part of the paper estimates the effects of military buildups on a variety of macroeconomic
variables using a new measure of military shocks. The behavior of macroeconomic aggregates
is consistent with the predictions of a multi-sector neoclassical model. In particular,
consumption, real product wages and manufacturing productivity fall in response to
exogenous military buildups in the post-World War II United States.



Опубликовано на портале: 19-10-2004
Lans Arij Bovenberg, Lawrence H. Goulder
National Tax Journal.
1997.
Vol. 50.
No. 1.
There has been keen interest in recent years in environmentally motivated or 'green'
tax reforms. This paper employs analytical and numerical general equilibrium models
to investigate the costs of such reforms, concentrating on the question of whether
these costs can be eliminated when revenues from new environmental taxes are devoted
to cuts in marginal income tax rates. A distinguishing feature of the analytical
model is its attention to the role of pre-existing inefficiencies in the tax treatment
of labor and capital and the associated role of tax-shifting. This model indicates
how the prospects for a zero- or negative-cost environmental tax reform are enhanced
to the extent that environmental tax reforms shift the tax burden toward the less
efficient (undertaxed) factor. Results from the numerical model are interpreted in
light of the analytical model's findings. These results indicate that the revenue-
neutral substitution of Btu or gasoline taxes for typical income taxes usually entails
positive gross costs to the economy. In the case of the gasoline tax, a significant
tax shifting effect serves to lower the policy's gross costs. This accounts for the
lower gross cost of the gasoline tax compared with the Btu tax. Under neither policy
is tax-shifting substantial enough to eliminate the overall gross costs.


Опубликовано на портале: 18-08-2004
William Easterly, Sergio Rebelo
NBER Working Paper Series.
1994.
w4499.
This paper describes the empirical regularities relating fiscal policy variables,
the level of development and the rate of growth. We employ historical data, recent
cross-section data, and newly constructed public investment series. Our main findings
are: (i) there is a strong association between the development level and the
fiscal
structure: poor countries rely heavily on international trade taxes, while income
taxes are only important in developed economies; (ii) fiscal policy is influenced
by the scale of the economy, measured by its population; (iii) investment in
transport
and communication is consistently correlated with growth while the effects of taxation
are difficult to isolate empirically.


Опубликовано на портале: 01-09-2003
Nouriel Roubini, Gian Maria Milesi-Ferrett
This paper studies the effects of human and physical capital income taxation on growth,
and examines how these effects depend on the technologies for human capital accumulation
and 'leisure'. It then derives the normative implications of the analysis for the
optimal taxation of factor incomes. It is shown that in general both capital and
labor (human capital) taxes are growth-reducing. In these cases, the optimal long-run
tax on both capital and labor income is zero. The optimal taxation plan consists
of taxing both factors in the short run, and financing spending in the long run through
accumulated budget surpluses.



Опубликовано на портале: 25-08-2003
Katsunori Watanabe, Takayuki Watanabe, Tsutomu Watanabe
This paper studies the extent to which the impact of tax policy on consumer spending
differs between temporary and permanent, as well as anticipated and unanticipated
tax changes. To discriminate between them, we use institutional information such
as legal distinction between temporary and permanent tax changes, as well as timing
of policy announcement and implementation. We find that the impact of temporary changes
is significantly smaller than the impact of permanent changes. We also find that
more than 80 per cent of Japanese consumers, including those who distinguish between
temporary and permanent tax changes, respond to tax changes at the time of their
implementation and not at the time of a policy announcement. We suggest an interpretation
that these consumers follow a near-rational decision rule.



Опубликовано на портале: 25-08-2003
Andrew B. Abel
This paper develops a tractable stochastic overlapping generations model to analyze
the equilibrium equity premium and growth rate of the capital stock in the presence
of a defined-benefit Social Security system. If the Social Security Trust Fund increases
the share of its portfolio held in risky capital, the equilibrium equity premium
falls in the following period and along a constant growth path. This change in the
portfolio of the Social Security Trust Fund will increase the growth rate of capital
in the following period, and, if a certain sufficient condition is satisfied, will
increase the growth rate of the capital stock along a constant growth path. Calibration
of the model indicates that it can match the historical average equity premium and
the historical average growth rate of the capital stock using plausible values of
the preference parameters. In addition, the sufficient condition for the growth rate
of the capital stock to increase along a constant growth path is satisfied. Quantitatively,
the effects on the riskless interest rate and the growth rate of capital are small.



Опубликовано на портале: 18-08-2004
Ricardo J. Caballero, Robert S. Pindyck
International Economic Review.
1996.
Vol. 37.
No. 3.
P. 641-662.
We study the effects of aggregate and idiosyncratic uncertainty on the entry of firms,
total investment, and prices in a competitive industry with irreversible investment.
We first use standard dynamic programming methods to determine firms' entry decisions,
and we describe the resulting industry equilibrium and its characteristics, emphasizing
the effects of different sources of uncertainty. We then show how the conditional
distribution of prices can be used as an alternative means of determining and understanding
the behavior of firms and the resulting industry equilibrium. Finally, we use four-digit
U.S. manufacturing data to examine some implications of the model.


Опубликовано на портале: 12-11-2004
Александр Александрович Петров
Экономическая наука современной России.
1999.
№ 4.
С. 7-44.
Излагается подход к анализу процессов структурных перестроек в экономике, в котором синтезирована методология математического моделирования сложных систем, развитая в естественных науках, и достижения современной экономической теории. В рамках этого подхода построен ряд замкнутых математических моделей, описывающих механизмы регулирования производства и обращения на последовательных этапах перестройки экономики СССР и реформирования экономики России. Дается обзор результатов исследований моделей, которые помогли глубже понять природу экономических структур, возникавших по ходу перестройки и реформы, достаточно точно воспроизвести временные ряды макроэкономических показателей, характеризующих состояние экономики, а также правильно спрогнозировать последствия важных макроэкономических решений.


Опубликовано на портале: 31-03-2003
Albert Benschop
Избранная библиография работ, выходивших на английском языке по темам: социология
профессий и профессиональная структура общества, теория организации, глобальный рынок
труда, гендерный аспект трудовых отношений, работа и досуг, состав рабочей силы и
т.п. Литература в библиографии сгруппирована по темам.



Опубликовано на портале: 04-04-2011
А.Б. Аюрзанайн
Экономические науки.
2010.
Т. 73.
№ 12.
С. 84-89.
Статья посвящена методике анализа деятельности финансовых институтов современной экономики. Предлагаемый метод опирается на построение графической матричной модели в системе координат. Целью анализа является оценка влияния изменений в структуре деятельности финансовых институтов на трансакционный сектор экономики и экономический рост. Научно-информационный журнал «Экономические науки»


Опубликовано на портале: 12-11-2004
Леонид Иванович Абалкин
Экономическая наука современной России.
2000.
Экспресс-выпуск №1.
С. 52-53.
Статья представляет обсуждение доклада А. Д. Некипелова.
Обсуждаются поставленные докладчиком вопросы: проблемы выбора экономического курса
России, проблемы квазирыночной экономики, проблемы взаимодействия экономической теории
и хозяйственной практики, стратегии экономического развития страны, а также рассматривается
концепция прямолинейной связи между формами собственности и развитием производительных
сил страны.


Опубликовано на портале: 14-03-2005
Сергей Вениаминович Жак
TERRA ECONOMICUS.
2003.
Т. 1.
№ 3.
С. 95-97.
В статье рассмотрены некоторые математические модели и подходы, которые, не претендуя
на роль универсальных моделей анализа экономических процессов, тем не менее демонстрируют
возможности использования даже упрощённых математических моделей при анализе вероятных
последствий принятия решений в области экономики.


