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Экономическая статистика – это глаза и уши аналитика, это инструмент функциональной диагностики, необходимый для принятия адекватных управленческих и политических решений, это - зеркало, в котором отражается живой социально-экономический организм: иногда - в целом, иногда - его отдельные составляющие элементы... (подробнее...)

Статьи

Всего статей в данном разделе : 183

Опубликовано на портале: 12-12-2002
John Greenlees Statistical Journal of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe. 2000.  Vol. 17. No. 1. P. 59-74. 
This paper describes the major methods used by statistical agencies to adjust for differences in the quality of a good or service when one item replaces another in a sample used to construct a Consumer Price Index. The methods are categorized as either direct, including the production-cost and hedonic approaches, or indirect, such as linking or class-mean imputation. The paper also presents simplified example calculations showing how the methods are applied in practice.
Опубликовано на портале: 12-12-2002
Branko Milanovic, Shlomo Yizhaki Review of Income and Wealth. 2002.  Vol. 48. No. 2.
Using the national income/expenditure distribution data from 111 countries, we decompose total inequality between the individuals in the world, by continents and regions. We use Yitzhakis Gini decomposition which allows for an exact breakdown of the Gini. We find t hat Asia is the most heterogeneous continents; between-country inequality is much more important than inequality in incomes within countries. At the other extreme is Latin America where differences between the countries are small, but inequalities within the countries are large. Western Europe/North America is fairly homogeneous both in terms of countries mean incomes and income differences between individuals. If we divided the world population into three groups: The rich (those with incomes greater than Italys mean income), the poor (those with income less than Western countries poverty lie), and the middle class, we find that there are only 11 percent of people who are world middle class; 78 percent are poor, and 11 percent are rich.
Опубликовано на портале: 19-07-2004
David J. Hand Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society). 1994.  Vol. 157. No. 3. P. 317-356. 
Too much current statistical work takes a superficial view of the client's research question, adopting techniques which have a solid history, a sound mathematical basis or readily available software, but without considering in depth whether the questions being answered are in fact those which should be asked. Examples, some familiar and others less so, are given to illustrate this assertion. It is clear that establishing the mapping from the client's domain to a statistical question is one of the most difficult parts of a statistical analysis. It is a part in which the responsibility is shared by both client and statistician. A plea is made for more research effort to go in this direction and some suggestions are made for ways to tackle the problem.
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Опубликовано на портале: 01-07-2004
Peter A.W. Lewis Annals of Mathematical Statistics. 1961.  Vol. 32. P. 1118-1124. 
Anderson and Darling proposed the use of the statistic for testing the hypothesis that a sample of size n has been drawn from a population with a specified continuous cumulative distribution function Gn(x) is the empirical distribution function defined on the sample on the size n Author consider here the problem of determining and tabulating the distribution function of this statistics.
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Опубликовано на портале: 22-09-2003
Peter Rathjens, Russell P. Robins Review of Economics and Statistics. 1995.  Vol. Vol. 77. No. 1. . P. pp. 170-172.. 
In 1991, the U.S.Council of Economic Advisers undertook an initiative to increase the quality of economic statistics. One specific objective was to reduce the size of revisions in GNP estimates. We present evidence that one straightforward and inexpensive way of forwarding this objective is for the Department of Commerce to utilize better publicly available information released by other governmental agencies. An important caveat, however, applies: the relationship appears to be non-linear. Specifically, the inefficient use of information is concentrated in those quarters where the change in the preliminary GNP estimate is large in absolute value.
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Опубликовано на портале: 22-09-2003
Rati Ram Review of Economics and Statistics. 1990.  Vol. Vol. 72. No. 2. . P. pp. 266-274. 
Fairly recent data for about 100 countries indicate that as the average level of schooling increases, educational inequality first increases, and, after reaching a peak, starts declining in later phases of educational expansion. The turning point occurs when average schooling is about seven years. The observed empirical generalization, which seems quite robust, appears to have important implications for educational and distributional policies and for research on the linkage between education and income inequality.
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Опубликовано на портале: 20-07-2004
James Banks, Paul Johnson The Economic Journal. 1994.  Vol. 104. No. 425. P. 883-890. 
Recent studies have assessed the impact of choice of equivalence scale on economists' measurement of the equivalent income distribution. One particular study (Coulter, Cowell and Jenkins (1992)) has found that equivalence scales used in the UK official statistics `provide lower estimates of the extent of inequality and poverty than do other scales'. In this paper we demonstrate that these kind of results are dependent on the particular year of data and equivalence scale specification that is used and are not properties intrinsic to particular methodologies. Results are also not robust to the use of more recent UK microeconomic data.
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Опубликовано на портале: 22-09-2003
Clinton R. Shiells Review of Economics and Statistics. 1993.  Vol. Vol. 73. No. 2. . P. pp. 378-382.. 
Disaggregated import-demand elasticity estimates based on import unit-value indexes are used in virtually all trade policy simulation models. However, unit-value indexes have been criticized especially by Kravis and Lipsey (1974). To examine the effect of using unit-value indexes on estimates of disaggregated import-demand elasticities, this paper compares regression results using unit-value indexes with results using U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics import-price indexes for several detailed trade categories based on quarterly data for 1978-88. Results show that using unit-value indexes does not greatly affect estimated import-demand elasticities.
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Опубликовано на портале: 20-07-2004
Malay Ghosh, Narinder Nangia, Dal Ho Kim Journal of the American Statistical Association. 1996.  Vol. 91. No. 436. P. 1423-1431. 
This article develops a general methodology for small domain estimation based on data from repeated surveys. The results are directly applied to the estimation of median income of four-person families for the 50 states and the District of Columbia. These estimates are needed by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) to formulate its energy assistance program for low income families. The U.S. Bureau of the Census, by an informal agreement, has provided such estimates to HHS through a linear regression methodology since the latter part of the 1970s. The current method is an empirical Bayes method (EB) that uses the Current Population Survey (CPS) estimates as well as the most recent decennial census estimates updated by the per capita income estimates of the Bureau of Economic Analysis. However, with the existing methodology, standard errors associated with these estimates are not easy to obtain. The EB estimates, when used naively, can lead to underestimation of standard errors. Moreover, because the sample estimates are collected through the CPS every year, there is a very natural time series aspect of the data that is currently ignored. We have performed a full Bayesian analysis using a hierarchical Bayes (HB) time series model. In addition to providing the median income estimates as the posterior means, we have provided also the posterior standard deviations. Included in our model is the information on the median incomes of three- and five-person families as well. In this way a multivariate HB procedure is used. The Bayesian analysis requires evaluation of high-dimensional integrals. We have overcome this problem by using the Gibbs sampling technique, which has turned out to be a very convenient tool for Monte Carlo integration. Also, we have validated our results by comparing them against the 1989 four-person median income figures obtained from the 1990 census. We used four different criteria for such comparisons. It turns out that the estimates obtained by using a bivariate time-series model are the best overall. We use a criterion based on deviances for model selection and also provide a sensitivity analysis of the proposed hierarchical model.
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Опубликовано на портале: 20-07-2004
Nancy Cleave, Philip J. Brown, Clive D. Payne Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. 1995.  Vol. 158. No. 1. P. 55-72. 
In ecological inference one uses data which are aggregated by areal units to investigate the behaviour of the individuals comprising those units. Aggregated data are readily available in many fields and within a wide variety of data structures. In the structures considered, the aggregate data are characterized by the absence of available data in the internal cells of a cross-classification. The aim of the ecological methods is to estimate the expected frequencies of such internal cells, which may be conditional on chosen covariates. Four methods of ecological inference are reviewed and their properties and appropriateness considered. These methods are then applied to data for which the internal cells are known and their performances compared.
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Опубликовано на портале: 26-04-2003
Nanak Kakwani Review of Economics and Statistics. 1997.  Vol. Vol. 79. No. 2. P. pp. 201-211. 
This paper is concerned with the measurement of aggregate growth rates, where the aggregation is over time. The paper demonstrates that any mechanical procedures for computing aggregate growth rate has welfare implications, and value judgments implicit in various commonly used procedures are not appealing. A new procedure suggested in the paper captures all the essential properties of a welfare function. The methodology of the paper is applied to an analysis of growth rates of per capita GNP of 83 developing countries during the 1970-1987 period.
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Опубликовано на портале: 19-07-2004
David Freedman, Kenneth W. Wachter Statistical Science. 1994.  Vol. 9. No. 4 . P. 476-485. 
Current techniques for census adjustment involve the "synthetic assumption" that undercount rates are constant within "post-strata" across geographical areas. A poststratum is a subgroup of people with given demographic characteristics; poststrata are chosen to minimize heterogeneity in undercount rates. This paper will use 1990 census data to assess the synthetic assumption. We find that heterogeneity within poststrata is quite large, with a corresponding impact on local undercount rates estimated by the synthetic method. Thus, any comparison of error rates between the census and adjusted counts should take heterogeneity into account.
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Опубликовано на портале: 22-10-2007
Peter Dobkin Hall, Colin B. Burke Hauser Center for Nonprofit Organizations. 2002. 
This paper is a draft of the introduction to the chapter on voluntary, nonprofit, and religious entities and activities slated to appear in the Millennial Edition of Historical Statistics of the United States. Conceding the various problematic definitions of the "nonprofit sector," the essay offers a rationale for the broadly inclusive approach to the selection of historical statistics of institutions and activities presented in the chapter. In addition, it reviews the challenges and opportunities for researchers working on the statistical aspects of nonprofit, voluntary, and religious organizations. The essay includes samples of the statistical series that will appear in HSUS.
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Опубликовано на портале: 12-12-2002
Jean Olson Lanjouw, Peter Lanjouw Review of Income and Wealth. 2001.  Vol. 47. No. 2.
Poverty rates calculated on the basis of household consumption expenditures are routinely compared across countries and time. The surveys which underlie these comparisons typically differ in the types of food and non-food expenditures included, often in ways which are easily overlooked by analysts. With several examples we demonstrate that these commonly occurring variations in expenditures definitions can give rise to marked differences in poverty rates where there are no real differences in well-being. We show that one approach to calculating poverty lines, used with headcount measurement of poverty, can allow comparisons based on data with different definitions of consumption. In addition to allowing comparative poverty analysis using existing survey data, the results suggest that poverty monitoring could be done effectively at lower cost by alternating detailed expenditures surveys with far more abbreviated surveys.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-09-2003
Mary F. Kokoski Review of Economics and Statistics. 1987.  Vol. Vol. 69. No. 1. . P. pp. 83-89. 
Leisure-inclusive welfare indices, such as the real wage index, have been previously investigated only with aggregate data. Using micro data, however, these indices show the effects of increasing labor market employment of household members. Real wage, expenditure, and nonlabor income indices are compared across six types of husband/wife households. These indices are also compared to ad hoc real wage and leisure-exclusive index measures. Doubt is cast on past results based upon aggregate data.
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