Статьи
Всего статей в данном разделе : 183
Опубликовано на портале: 20-07-2004
William Jack Baumol, Edward N. Wolff
Journal of Political Economy.
1984.
Vol. 92.
No. 6.
P. 1017-1034.
In the literature, comparisons between absolute levels of productivity in different
industries occur frequently. This paper explores the meaning and possible significance
of such measures. Prices must be used to permit the required comparison of the outputs
of different industries. It is shown that base-year weights produce a valid measure
of productivity growth but not of absolute productivity level. Current price weights
do yield a valid index of absolute productivity but one that tends to be equal for
all industries because of the general equilibrium mechanism that reallocates resources
from low-productivity to high-productivity industries.
Опубликовано на портале: 26-04-2003
Paul Gregg
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society).
1994.
Vol. Vol. 157.
No. 2.
P. pp. 253-270.
The validity of UK unemployment statistics was the focus of intense debate through
the 1980s and again in 1992. This mainly concerned whether they were open to politically
motivated manipulation. To some extent this argument has missed a wider point. Frequent
changes of coverage and consistency between sources of information which provide
measures of unemployment have led to a paucity of data that are suitable for social
scientific study with its implied costs to our understanding of unemployment over
the last 15 years. It is hoped that an increasing reliance on specifically designed
survey techniques, rather than measures based on benefit administration data, will
overcome many of these problems for the 1990s. The design of the Labour Force Survey
should take on board the questions raised by social scientists. In particular, the
shortage of available work should be measured by the broader indicators of social
distress as well as the identification of excess labour supply in the labour market.
Опубликовано на портале: 20-07-2004
Stephen P. Jenkins, Frank A. Cowell
The Economic Journal.
1994.
Vol. 104.
No. 425.
P. 891-900.
We respond to Banks and Johnson's (1994) Comment on Coulter et al. (1992) drawing
on a more general discussion of parametric equivalence scale and scale relativity
issues and new empirical results. We show that criticisms of our earlier work are
unfounded. When the McClements scale is properly characterised, the scale does indeed
provide lower estimates of poverty and inequality levels than most other scales.
We reiterate our conclusion that relationships between scale relativities and inequality
and poverty indices may be index-specific. Moreover the picture about distributional
trends may differ from that about levels.
Опубликовано на портале: 20-07-2004
Amartya Sen
Econometrica.
1976.
Vol. 44.
No. 2.
P. 219-231.
The primary aim of this paper is to propose a new measure of poverty, which should
avoid some of the shortcomings of the measures currently in use. An axiomatic approach
is used to derive the measure. The conception of welfare in the axiom set is ordinal.
The information requirement for the new measure is quite limited, permitting practical
use.
Опубликовано на портале: 01-07-2004
Russell Davidson, James G. MacKinnon
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics.
1988.
Vol. 50.
No. 2.
P. 203-218.
Recently, applied econometricians have become familiar with the idea that artificial
regressions may offer a convenient way to compute many test statistics. One well-known
family of artificial regressions is the outer product of the gradient (OPG) family.
However, available evidence indicates that using tests based on the OPG regression
can be very misleading. A procedure that often can replace it is the double-length
artificial regression (DLR), which can be considered as a generalization of both
the Gauss-Newton regression and the squared-residuals regression. A discussion includes
applications to the nonlinear regression model as well as tests for functional form.
DLRs potentially are very useful. While they generally have good finite-sample properties,
they are applicable to far more situations than Gauss-Newton and squared-residuals
artificial regressions. They also can be used as part of maximization algorithms
and should be considered to routinely test regression equations for functional form.
Опубликовано на портале: 19-07-2004
Peter G. Moore
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society).
1984.
Vol. 147.
No. 2.
P. 268-277.
The activities of statisticians working in industry or commerce are examined under
three headings: information handling, experimental statistics and risk management.
Some current needs are highlighted and the dilemma between the provision of information
and recommendations for decision explored.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-09-2003
David Steel
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society).
1997.
Vol. Vol. 160.
No. 1. .
P. pp. 5-46..
Monthly unemployment statistics are available in Britain from a monthly count of
the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits. There has been considerable
debate on the appropriateness of this measure. Unemployment and employment statistics
are available quarterly from the Labour Force Survey (LFS), using International Labour
Office (ILO) definitions. In this paper various options for producing monthly unemployment
estimates according to the ILO definition are examined. Methods considered are a
monthly LFS, calculating rolling averages from the quarterly LFS, and methods which
combine LFS and claimant count data. It is proposed that a monthly LFS of 60 000
households be introduced which can produce monthly estimates of total unemployment
and more detailed estimates quarterly. Such a survey would also fill an important
gap by providing monthly employment statistics which are needed to provide a complete
picture of the labour market.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-09-2003
Andrew Linacre
Economic Trends.
2004.
No. 582.
Presented in this article are measures of per capita Gross Household Disposable Incomes
for various geographic areas within the United Kingdom. Tabulations also describe
the level of Total Household Income, as well as the size of components such as employment
income, social security income and tax payments.At the regional and sub-regional
level of UK geographies, figures cover each calendar year 1995 to 1999. Regional
figures update the provisional estimates published in July 2001. At the local area
level (UK comprises 133 local areas), income levels and income composition are described
for the combined period 1997 to 1999.Income redistributive effects of the social
security and taxation systems may be gauged in relation to each areas ratio of social
security money received - to the amount of taxes paid. In each of the lowest income
Regions in 1999, social security receipts and taxation payments were in near balance.
In contrast, in each of the highest income Regions tax payments are over double the
level of social security benefits. Differences at local area level are more pronounced
e.g. Buckinghamshire households paid taxes equal to more than four times their social
security receipts, whereas North of Northern Ireland households paid taxes equal
to half their social security receipts.
Опубликовано на портале: 12-12-2002
Esben Dalgaard, Christopher Eff, Annette Thomsen
Review of Income and Wealth.
2001.
Vol. 47.
No. 2.
The paper raises three questions. Firstly, it is warranted that a significant part
of primary (property) income is not shown in the national accounts as being distributed
to the owners of the assets to which it accrues but ends up as capital gains in the
revaluation account? Secondly, why has the SNA chosen not to record reinvested earnings
of corporations as flows of property income with the exception of foreign direct
investment, and thirdly why the asymmetrical recording of stock investments constituting
more than 10 percent of equity capital depending on whether domestic or foreign transactions
are concerned? Reinvested earnings on domestic equity investment above 10 percent
of a corporation are not recorded as property income in the system.
The paper looks at these three questions from the perspective of the analytical
uses of national accounts. The consequences for the analysis of income distribution
both between nations and within nations are examined.
Опубликовано на портале: 24-12-2007
Joachim R. Frick, Markus Michael Grabka, Eva M. Sierminska
DIW Berlin Discussion Papers.
2007.
No. 672.
The definition and operationalization of wealth information in population surveys
and the corresponding microdata requires a wide range of more or less normative assumptions.
However, the decisions made in both the pre- and post-data-collection stage may interfere
considerably with the substantive research question. Looking at wealth data from
the German SOEP, this paper focuses on the impact of collecting information at the
individual rather than household level, and on “imputation and editing”
as a means of dealing with measurement error. First, we assess how the choice of
unit of aggregation or unit of analysis affects wealth distribution and inequality
analysis. Obviously, when measured in “per capita household” terms, wealth
is less unequally distributed than at the individual level. This is the result of
significant redistribution within households, and also provides evidence of a significant
persisting gender wealth gap. Secondly, we find multiple imputation to be an effective
means of coping with selective nonresponse. There is a significant impact of imputation
on the share of wealth holders (increasing on average by 15%) and also on aggregate
wealth (plus 30%). However, with respect to inequality, the results are ambiguous.
Looking at the major outcome variable for the whole population—net worth—the
Gini coefficient decreases, whereas a top-sensitive measure doubles. The non-random
selectivity built into the missing process and the consideration of this selectivity
in the imputation process clearly contribute to this finding. Obviously, the treatment
of measurement errors after data collection, especially with respect to the imputation
of missing values, affects cross-national comparability and thus may require some
cross-national harmonization of the imputation strategies applied to the various
national datasets.
Опубликовано на портале: 19-07-2004
R. L. Plackett
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society).
1984.
Vol. 147.
No. 2.
P. 140-150.
The progress of the Royal Statistical Society is recorded from 1934 to 1984. After
a sketch of the statistical background before 1945, subsequent developments are divided
into sections: professional matters, meetings, publications, public policy, management,
organization. Finally, a retrospective view is taken over the whole period.
Опубликовано на портале: 19-07-2004
Juha M. Alho
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society).
1997.
Vol. 160.
No. 1.
P. 71-85.
Current official population forecasts differ little from those that Whelpton made
50 years ago either in the cohort-component methodology used or in the arguments
used to motivate the assumptions. However, Whelpton produced some of the most erroneous
forecasts of this century. This suggests that current forecasters should ensure that
they give users an assessment of the uncertainty of their forecasts. We show how
simple statistical methods can be combined with expert judgment to arrive at an overall
predictive distribution for the future population. We apply the methods to a world
population forecast that was made in 1994. Accepting that point forecast, we find
that the probability is only about 2% that the world population in the year 2030
will be less than the low scenario of 8317 million. The probability that the world
population will exceed the high scenario of 10736 million is about 13%. Similarly,
the probability is only about 51% that the high-low interval of a recent United Nations
(UN) forecast will contain the true population in the year 2025. Even if we consider
the UN high-low intervals as conditional on the possible future policies of its member
states, they appear to have a relatively small probability of encompassing the future
population.
Опубликовано на портале: 11-09-2003
Jeroen Boelhouwer
Social Indicators Research.
2002.
Vol. 60.
No. 1-3.
P. 89-113.
The Dutch Social en Cultural Planning Office (SCP) monitors social changes and social
services, evaluates social policies, gives information about expected developments
in the future and gives recommendations for further policy. Key issues are the assessment
of economic, demographic and social changes and the influence of these factors on
the social and living conditions of the population. The SCP uses social and economic
indicators to examine these developments. Besides researching specific themes (such
as social exclusion, the consequences of long-term unemployment, the social position
of the elderly and use, costs and productivity of social services) the SCP has developed
an overall monitoring tool for the living conditions: the living conditions index
(LCI). Nowadays the index is composed of indicators which reflect conditions in eight
areas: housing, health, consumer durables, leisure activity, sport activity, social
participation, mobility and holiday. In the future, the SCP will attempt to develop
a conceptual model that will link the living conditions index to other social indices
like livability (housing and level of services), poverty and socioeconomic deprivation.
Опубликовано на портале: 20-07-2004
Larry S. Corder, Kenneth G. Manton
Journal of the American Statistical Association.
1991.
Vol. 86.
No. 414.
P. 513-525.
The rapid growth of the U.S. elderly (age 65+) and oldest-old (age 85+) populations,
combined with their high per capita acute health and long-term care (LTC) service
needs, raises concerns about existing health care payment systems. Adapting and designing
new types of health insurance and existing health policies require accurate data
on the elderly's health and functional characteristics. Strengths and weaknesses
of five national health surveys in providing such data are evaluated. Methodological
issues arising in surveying elderly populations and analyzing data from those surveys
are discussed, with implications for designing private LTC insurance and for reducing
future LTC service burden.
Solving the Stochastic Growth Model by Using Quadrature Methods and Value-Function
Iterations [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 01-07-2004
George Tauchen
Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.
1990.
Vol. 8.
No. 1.
P. 49-51.
Solution algorithm that uses value-function iterations on a discrete state space
is presented for the capital growth model set forth by Taylor and Uhlig (1990). The
grid for the exogenous process is set using the quadrature technique, and the grid
for the endogenous capital process is set using a simple equispaced scheme in logarithms.
The discretized model is then solved with value-function iterations. The algorithm
is coded in GAUSS and run on a Compaq 386-25 computer. It appears to be very successful.
When applied to a slightly different version of the problem in which the exact solution
is known, the algorithm can approximate the exact solution with 4-digit accuracy
and with a computational time of about 40 to 45 minutes. While the algorithm approximates
the decision rule closely, it still might appear to do poorly on criteria that test
for statistical violations of orthogonality conditions implied by the Euler equation.
This is because a value-function approach does not impose the Euler equation explicitly
on the discrete model.
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