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Экономическая статистика – это глаза и уши аналитика, это инструмент функциональной диагностики, необходимый для принятия адекватных управленческих и политических решений, это - зеркало, в котором отражается живой социально-экономический организм: иногда - в целом, иногда - его отдельные составляющие элементы... (подробнее...)

Статьи

Всего статей в данном разделе : 183

Опубликовано на портале: 20-07-2004
William Jack Baumol, Edward N. Wolff Journal of Political Economy. 1984.  Vol. 92. No. 6. P. 1017-1034. 
In the literature, comparisons between absolute levels of productivity in different industries occur frequently. This paper explores the meaning and possible significance of such measures. Prices must be used to permit the required comparison of the outputs of different industries. It is shown that base-year weights produce a valid measure of productivity growth but not of absolute productivity level. Current price weights do yield a valid index of absolute productivity but one that tends to be equal for all industries because of the general equilibrium mechanism that reallocates resources from low-productivity to high-productivity industries.
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Опубликовано на портале: 26-04-2003
Paul Gregg Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society). 1994.  Vol. Vol. 157. No. 2. P. pp. 253-270. 
The validity of UK unemployment statistics was the focus of intense debate through the 1980s and again in 1992. This mainly concerned whether they were open to politically motivated manipulation. To some extent this argument has missed a wider point. Frequent changes of coverage and consistency between sources of information which provide measures of unemployment have led to a paucity of data that are suitable for social scientific study with its implied costs to our understanding of unemployment over the last 15 years. It is hoped that an increasing reliance on specifically designed survey techniques, rather than measures based on benefit administration data, will overcome many of these problems for the 1990s. The design of the Labour Force Survey should take on board the questions raised by social scientists. In particular, the shortage of available work should be measured by the broader indicators of social distress as well as the identification of excess labour supply in the labour market.
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Опубликовано на портале: 20-07-2004
Stephen P. Jenkins, Frank A. Cowell The Economic Journal. 1994.  Vol. 104. No. 425. P. 891-900. 
We respond to Banks and Johnson's (1994) Comment on Coulter et al. (1992) drawing on a more general discussion of parametric equivalence scale and scale relativity issues and new empirical results. We show that criticisms of our earlier work are unfounded. When the McClements scale is properly characterised, the scale does indeed provide lower estimates of poverty and inequality levels than most other scales. We reiterate our conclusion that relationships between scale relativities and inequality and poverty indices may be index-specific. Moreover the picture about distributional trends may differ from that about levels.
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Опубликовано на портале: 20-07-2004
Amartya Sen Econometrica. 1976.  Vol. 44. No. 2. P. 219-231. 
The primary aim of this paper is to propose a new measure of poverty, which should avoid some of the shortcomings of the measures currently in use. An axiomatic approach is used to derive the measure. The conception of welfare in the axiom set is ordinal. The information requirement for the new measure is quite limited, permitting practical use.
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Опубликовано на портале: 01-07-2004
Russell Davidson, James G. MacKinnon Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics. 1988.  Vol. 50. No. 2. P. 203-218. 
Recently, applied econometricians have become familiar with the idea that artificial regressions may offer a convenient way to compute many test statistics. One well-known family of artificial regressions is the outer product of the gradient (OPG) family. However, available evidence indicates that using tests based on the OPG regression can be very misleading. A procedure that often can replace it is the double-length artificial regression (DLR), which can be considered as a generalization of both the Gauss-Newton regression and the squared-residuals regression. A discussion includes applications to the nonlinear regression model as well as tests for functional form. DLRs potentially are very useful. While they generally have good finite-sample properties, they are applicable to far more situations than Gauss-Newton and squared-residuals artificial regressions. They also can be used as part of maximization algorithms and should be considered to routinely test regression equations for functional form.
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Опубликовано на портале: 19-07-2004
Peter G. Moore Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society). 1984.  Vol. 147. No. 2. P. 268-277. 
The activities of statisticians working in industry or commerce are examined under three headings: information handling, experimental statistics and risk management. Some current needs are highlighted and the dilemma between the provision of information and recommendations for decision explored.
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Опубликовано на портале: 22-09-2003
David Steel Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society). 1997.  Vol. Vol. 160. No. 1. . P. pp. 5-46.. 
Monthly unemployment statistics are available in Britain from a monthly count of the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits. There has been considerable debate on the appropriateness of this measure. Unemployment and employment statistics are available quarterly from the Labour Force Survey (LFS), using International Labour Office (ILO) definitions. In this paper various options for producing monthly unemployment estimates according to the ILO definition are examined. Methods considered are a monthly LFS, calculating rolling averages from the quarterly LFS, and methods which combine LFS and claimant count data. It is proposed that a monthly LFS of 60 000 households be introduced which can produce monthly estimates of total unemployment and more detailed estimates quarterly. Such a survey would also fill an important gap by providing monthly employment statistics which are needed to provide a complete picture of the labour market.
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Опубликовано на портале: 22-09-2003
Andrew Linacre Economic Trends. 2004.  No. 582.
Presented in this article are measures of per capita Gross Household Disposable Incomes for various geographic areas within the United Kingdom. Tabulations also describe the level of Total Household Income, as well as the size of components such as employment income, social security income and tax payments.At the regional and sub-regional level of UK geographies, figures cover each calendar year 1995 to 1999. Regional figures update the provisional estimates published in July 2001. At the local area level (UK comprises 133 local areas), income levels and income composition are described for the combined period 1997 to 1999.Income redistributive effects of the social security and taxation systems may be gauged in relation to each areas ratio of social security money received - to the amount of taxes paid. In each of the lowest income Regions in 1999, social security receipts and taxation payments were in near balance. In contrast, in each of the highest income Regions tax payments are over double the level of social security benefits. Differences at local area level are more pronounced e.g. Buckinghamshire households paid taxes equal to more than four times their social security receipts, whereas North of Northern Ireland households paid taxes equal to half their social security receipts.
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Опубликовано на портале: 12-12-2002
Esben Dalgaard, Christopher Eff, Annette Thomsen Review of Income and Wealth. 2001.  Vol. 47. No. 2.
The paper raises three questions. Firstly, it is warranted that a significant part of primary (property) income is not shown in the national accounts as being distributed to the owners of the assets to which it accrues but ends up as capital gains in the revaluation account? Secondly, why has the SNA chosen not to record reinvested earnings of corporations as flows of property income with the exception of foreign direct investment, and thirdly why the asymmetrical recording of stock investments constituting more than 10 percent of equity capital depending on whether domestic or foreign transactions are concerned? Reinvested earnings on domestic equity investment above 10 percent of a corporation are not recorded as property income in the system. The paper looks at these three questions from the perspective of the analytical uses of national accounts. The consequences for the analysis of income distribution both between nations and within nations are examined.
Опубликовано на портале: 24-12-2007
Joachim R. Frick, Markus Michael Grabka, Eva M. Sierminska DIW Berlin Discussion Papers. 2007.  No. 672.
The definition and operationalization of wealth information in population surveys and the corresponding microdata requires a wide range of more or less normative assumptions. However, the decisions made in both the pre- and post-data-collection stage may interfere considerably with the substantive research question. Looking at wealth data from the German SOEP, this paper focuses on the impact of collecting information at the individual rather than household level, and on “imputation and editing” as a means of dealing with measurement error. First, we assess how the choice of unit of aggregation or unit of analysis affects wealth distribution and inequality analysis. Obviously, when measured in “per capita household” terms, wealth is less unequally distributed than at the individual level. This is the result of significant redistribution within households, and also provides evidence of a significant persisting gender wealth gap. Secondly, we find multiple imputation to be an effective means of coping with selective nonresponse. There is a significant impact of imputation on the share of wealth holders (increasing on average by 15%) and also on aggregate wealth (plus 30%). However, with respect to inequality, the results are ambiguous. Looking at the major outcome variable for the whole population—net worth—the Gini coefficient decreases, whereas a top-sensitive measure doubles. The non-random selectivity built into the missing process and the consideration of this selectivity in the imputation process clearly contribute to this finding. Obviously, the treatment of measurement errors after data collection, especially with respect to the imputation of missing values, affects cross-national comparability and thus may require some cross-national harmonization of the imputation strategies applied to the various national datasets.
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Опубликовано на портале: 19-07-2004
R. L. Plackett Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society). 1984.  Vol. 147. No. 2. P. 140-150. 
The progress of the Royal Statistical Society is recorded from 1934 to 1984. After a sketch of the statistical background before 1945, subsequent developments are divided into sections: professional matters, meetings, publications, public policy, management, organization. Finally, a retrospective view is taken over the whole period.
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Опубликовано на портале: 19-07-2004
Juha M. Alho Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society). 1997.  Vol. 160. No. 1. P. 71-85. 
Current official population forecasts differ little from those that Whelpton made 50 years ago either in the cohort-component methodology used or in the arguments used to motivate the assumptions. However, Whelpton produced some of the most erroneous forecasts of this century. This suggests that current forecasters should ensure that they give users an assessment of the uncertainty of their forecasts. We show how simple statistical methods can be combined with expert judgment to arrive at an overall predictive distribution for the future population. We apply the methods to a world population forecast that was made in 1994. Accepting that point forecast, we find that the probability is only about 2% that the world population in the year 2030 will be less than the low scenario of 8317 million. The probability that the world population will exceed the high scenario of 10736 million is about 13%. Similarly, the probability is only about 51% that the high-low interval of a recent United Nations (UN) forecast will contain the true population in the year 2025. Even if we consider the UN high-low intervals as conditional on the possible future policies of its member states, they appear to have a relatively small probability of encompassing the future population.
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Опубликовано на портале: 11-09-2003
Jeroen Boelhouwer Social Indicators Research. 2002.  Vol. 60. No. 1-3. P. 89-113. 
The Dutch Social en Cultural Planning Office (SCP) monitors social changes and social services, evaluates social policies, gives information about expected developments in the future and gives recommendations for further policy. Key issues are the assessment of economic, demographic and social changes and the influence of these factors on the social and living conditions of the population. The SCP uses social and economic indicators to examine these developments. Besides researching specific themes (such as social exclusion, the consequences of long-term unemployment, the social position of the elderly and use, costs and productivity of social services) the SCP has developed an overall monitoring tool for the living conditions: the living conditions index (LCI). Nowadays the index is composed of indicators which reflect conditions in eight areas: housing, health, consumer durables, leisure activity, sport activity, social participation, mobility and holiday. In the future, the SCP will attempt to develop a conceptual model that will link the living conditions index to other social indices like livability (housing and level of services), poverty and socioeconomic deprivation.
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Опубликовано на портале: 20-07-2004
Larry S. Corder, Kenneth G. Manton Journal of the American Statistical Association. 1991.  Vol. 86. No. 414. P. 513-525. 
The rapid growth of the U.S. elderly (age 65+) and oldest-old (age 85+) populations, combined with their high per capita acute health and long-term care (LTC) service needs, raises concerns about existing health care payment systems. Adapting and designing new types of health insurance and existing health policies require accurate data on the elderly's health and functional characteristics. Strengths and weaknesses of five national health surveys in providing such data are evaluated. Methodological issues arising in surveying elderly populations and analyzing data from those surveys are discussed, with implications for designing private LTC insurance and for reducing future LTC service burden.
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Опубликовано на портале: 01-07-2004
George Tauchen Journal of Business and Economic Statistics. 1990.  Vol. 8. No. 1. P. 49-51. 
Solution algorithm that uses value-function iterations on a discrete state space is presented for the capital growth model set forth by Taylor and Uhlig (1990). The grid for the exogenous process is set using the quadrature technique, and the grid for the endogenous capital process is set using a simple equispaced scheme in logarithms. The discretized model is then solved with value-function iterations. The algorithm is coded in GAUSS and run on a Compaq 386-25 computer. It appears to be very successful. When applied to a slightly different version of the problem in which the exact solution is known, the algorithm can approximate the exact solution with 4-digit accuracy and with a computational time of about 40 to 45 minutes. While the algorithm approximates the decision rule closely, it still might appear to do poorly on criteria that test for statistical violations of orthogonality conditions implied by the Euler equation. This is because a value-function approach does not impose the Euler equation explicitly on the discrete model.
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