Всего статей в данном разделе : 183
Spatial harmonization of economic cycles: statistical confirmation of European-Russian interference in real sectors of economy (Пространственное согласование экономических циклов: статистическое подтверждение российско-европейского взаимовлияния реальных [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 14-11-2012Е.В. Зарова Экономические науки. 2012. № 3. С. 177-186.
Статья посвящена теоретическим и методическим проблемам выявления и оценки циклических процессов в реальном секторе экономики. Представлены результаты анализа и моделирования пространственной гармонизации среднесрочных циклов в европейских и российских промышленных сферах.
Опубликовано на портале: 06-10-2003David J. Hand, W. E. Henley Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. 1997. Vol. 160. No. 3. P. 523-541.
Credit scoring is the term used to describe formal statistical methods used for classifying applicants for credit into "good" and "bad" risk classes. Such methods have become increasingly important with the dramatic growth in consumer credit in recent years. A wide range of statistical methods has been applied, though the literature available to the public is limited for reasons of commercial confidentiality. Particular problems arising in the credit scoring context are examined and the statistical methods which have been applied are reviewed.
Statistical disclosure control (SDC) in practice: some examples in official statistics of Statistics Netherlands [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 12-12-2002Eric Schulte Nordholt Statistical Journal of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe. 2001. Vol. Volume 18. Number 4. P. 321 - 328 .
The paper describes how two related software packages can be applied for producing safe data. The package - ARGUS is used for tabular data and its twin w-ARGUS for microdata. The main techniques used to protect sensitive information are global recoding and local suppression. Bona fide researchers who need more information have the possibility to visit Statistics Netherlands and work on-site in a secure area within Statistics Netherlands. Some examples are given of official statistics that have benefited from statistical disclosure control techniques.
Опубликовано на портале: 03-10-2003John Custanset, Hillary Hillier Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. 1998. Vol. 161. No. 3. P. 281-290.
This paper describes the background to the development of a new offical set of national indicators of sustainable development--one of the first in the world to be published. The paper discusses the role of statisticians in helping to define sustainable development, and the problems of monitoring and reporting progress. The Minister of State for the Environment has announced his ambition of developing a very small set of headline indicators. This paper is intended to help to stimulate the debate over what they should be.
Statistics and Agriculture [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 19-07-2004J. C. Gower Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. 1988. Vol. 151. No. 1. P. 179-200.
The relationship between statistics and agricultural research is reviewed. From the end of the 18th century until the present, three main periods are identified: from the beginnings of scientific agriculture in the Age of Improvement until the first world war, which saw the use of field experiments to give information on plant nutrition and which lead to a recognition of the need to handle variability, the interwar years, dominated by R. A. Fisher, which saw the founding of experimental design as a statistical discipline, the clearer understanding of the different contributions to variability, the application of the new ideas to new areas associated with agriculture (e.g. bioassay and multivariate analysis) and outside agriculture (e.g. medicine and industry) and the development of mathematical statistics, and the post-war years, initially concerned with an elaboration and unification of earlier ideas but, more recently, with new methodology encouraged in response to new directions in agricultural research (e.g. molecular biology, modelling), new forms of measurement provided by novel instrumentation, and by computing developments (agricultural statisticians have been prominent in developing statistical software). Over the 200 years covered by the review, agricultural production of all kinds has dramatically increased and it is held that statistics has played its part, usually indirectly, by encouraging the efficient use of limited research resources and, occasionally, by discouraging unjustified research. Increased production is currently less of a priority but many agricultural research problems remain to which statisticians can and should contribute (e.g. food quality, efficiency, environmental impact, stability of production).
Опубликовано на портале: 22-09-2003David J. Hand Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society). 1996. Vol. 159. No. 3. P. 445-492.
Just as there are different interpretations of probability, leading to different kinds of inferential statements and different conclusions about statistical models and questions, so there are different theories of measurement, which in turn may lead to different kinds of statistical model and possibly different conclusions. This has led to much confusion and a long running debate about when different classes of statistical methods may legitimately be applied. This paper outlines the major theories of measurement and their relationships and describes the different kinds of models and hypotheses which may be formulated within each theory. One general conclusion is that the domains of applicability of the two major theories are typically different, and it is this which helps apparent contradictions to be avoided in most practical applications.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-09-2003Christos Ioannidis, Mick Silver Statistician. 1995. Vol. Vol. 44. No. 3. P. pp. 309-322..
This paper identifies the extent to which price changes for individual product groups within a consumer price index (CPI) are dispersed. This is of importance because of our concern with the differential economic effect of inflation on households, the representativeness of CPIs and the widely held theory in economics that increased dispersion of price changes at higher rates of inflation is symptomatic of a misallocation of resources. Such theory forms the basis of anti-inflationary policies in many countries including the UK. This study provides summary statistics on the extent of such dispersion for nine European countries. The measures benefit from new improvements with regard to the timeliness of the weights and the weighting system. Models of the relationship between dispersion and the mean are developed, the coefficients for each country providing estimates of the extent to which a unit rise in inflation will lead to increased dispersion. The consistency of method, scope and measurement used for these countries allows us to identify for the first time whether, for a unit increase in inflation, the damage to the economy as reflected in the increase in dispersion is similar for different countries, and if not the extent to which such countries are less prone to such damage. The measures of dispersion used include the coefficient of variation, not generally used in such work, which is argued to incorporate a model of perceptions of inflation. The model includes tests for asymmetry of price change for menu cost models, oil shocks and structural shifts. In particular the paper subsequently focuses on the previously unconsidered area of currency realignments under the European Monetary System and their (quite different) effects on variability.
Опубликовано на портале: 31-12-2010Экономический журнал ВШЭ. 2006. Т. 10. № 2. С. 349-350.
Опубликовано на портале: 31-12-2010Экономический журнал ВШЭ. 2005. Т. 9. № 2. С. 285-287.
Опубликовано на портале: 03-10-2003Roger Levett Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B (Methodological). 1998. Vol. 161. No. 3. . P. 291-302..
The struggle to find and use indicators of sustainable development is intimately bound up with the process of deciding what we mean by sustainable development and what we shall do about it. In this field at least, indicators are intrinsically and unavoidably normative and political. The paper proposes an approach to indicators which reflects, and can further clarify and help to achieve, an important aspect of sustainable development. The paper is written from a practical, instrumental interest in indicators as a tool to put sustainable development principles into practice in public policy. The author is not a statistician and makes no claim to technical expertise but hopes that this `barefoot' practitioner perspective may be of some interest to the professionals. The main argument is introduced by a discussion of some of the pitfalls and limitations of sustainability indicators to date.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-09-2003Robert C. Feenstra Review of Economics and Statistics. 1995. Vol. 77. No. 4. P. 634-653..
Using the marginal value of characteristics, we show how to construct bounds on the exact hedonic price index. When prices are above marginal costs then our bounds still apply, but the value of characteristics cannot be measured so easily from a hedonic regression. Since the price--cost markups are an omitted variable, they will bias the coefficients obtained. For a special class of utility functions, we argue that a linear regression will still provide a measure of the marginal value of characteristics, but a log-linear regression will overstate these values.
Опубликовано на портале: 01-07-2004Michael A. Stephens, Pedro Puig Technometrics. 2000. Vol. 42. No. 4. P. 417-424.
Tests are given for Laplace or double exponential distribution. The test statistics are based on the empirical distribution function and include and the families of Cramer-von Mises and Kolmogorov-Smirnov. Asymptotic theory is given, and asymptotic points are calculated, for the Cramer-von Mises family, and Monte Carlo points for finite samples are given for all the statistics. Power studies suggest that the Watson statistic is the most powerful for the common problem of testing Laplace against other symmetric distributions. An application of the Laplace distribution is in LAD (or L1) regression. This is also discussed in the article, with two examples.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-09-2003Eric J. Thompson Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society). 1995. Vol. Vol. 158. No. 2. . P. pp. 203-240..
This paper describes the 1991 census in England and Wales: how it was planned and implemented and how its results are being assessed. The description brings out the trade-offs that are necessary in undertaking a census, and some respects in which plans for a census in 2001 will need to take account of experience of that in 1991.
The Economic Costs of the Iraq War: An Appraisal Three Years After the Beginning of the Conflict [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 28-10-2007Joseph E. Stiglitz, Linda Bilmes NBER Working Papers. 2006. No. 12054.
This paper attempts to provide a more complete reckoning of the costs of the Iraq War, using standard economic and accounting/ budgetary frameworks. As of December 30, 2005, total spending for combat and support operations in Iraq is $251bn, and the CBO's estimates put the projected total direct costs at around $500bn. These figures, however, greatly underestimate the War's true costs. The authors estimate a range of present and future costs, by including expenditures not in the $500bn CBO projection, such as lifetime healthcare and disability payments to returning veterans, replenishment of military hardware, and increased recruitment costs. They then make adjustments to reflect the social costs of the resources deployed, (e.g. reserve pay is less than the opportunity wage and disability pay is less than forgone earnings). Finally, they estimate the effects of the war on the overall performance of the economy. Even taking a conservative approach and assuming all US troops return by 2010, the authors believe the true costs exceed a trillion dollars. Using the CBO's projection of maintaining troops in Iraq through 2015, the true costs may exceed $2 trillion. In either case, the cost is much larger than the administration's original estimate of $50-$60bn. The costs estimated do not include those borne by other countries, either directly (military expenditures) or indirectly (the increased price of oil). Most importantly, they have not included the costs to Iraq, either in terms of destruction of infrastructure or the loss of lives. These would all clearly raise the costs significantly.
The Measurement and Interpretation of Real Consumption and Purchasing Power Parity for a Quantity-Constrained Economy: The Case of East and West Germany [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 20-07-2004Irwin L. Collier Economica, New Series. 1989. Vol. 56. No. 221. P. 109-120.
When households are subject to quantity constraints, conventional measures of real consumption and purchasing power parity for cross-national comparisons suffer from a new type of index number problem. Additional information on preferences taken from a demand system estimated for a similar economy without quantity constraints can be employed to calculate distance function and money-metric indexes of relative real consumption and corresponding measures of purchasing power parity. The procedure is illustrated in a comparison of East and West German consumer prices and consumption expenditures for 1977.