Всего статей в данном разделе : 745
Опубликовано на портале: 14-12-2006Внешнеэкономические связи. 2004. Т. 12. № 12. С. 58-61.
Интервью Чрезвычайного и Полномочного Посла Королевства Швеция в Российской Федерации Ю. Муландера журналу «Внешнеэкономические связи». В интервью затрагиваются вопросы развития международного сотрудничества России и Швеции, развития внешнеэкономических связей Швеции с Россией, а также развития туристического бизнеса.
«Единое сообщество – наше будущее» [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 14-12-2006Внешнеэкономические связи. 2004. Т. 12. № 12. С. 38-42.
Статья представляет собой Декларацию стран – членов форума «Азиатско-Тихоокеанское экономическое сотрудничество», которая была принята 21 ноября 2004 года в Сантьяго главами государств и правительств. В Декларации поднимаются вопросы ускорения развития путем либерализации торговли и инвестирования, расширения торговли, упрочнения безопасности личности, развития образования, проблемы коллективной и национальной безопасности и т.д.
Опубликовано на портале: 14-12-2006Внешнеэкономические связи. 2004. Т. 11. № 11. С. 28.
В статье рассказывается о 59-ой сессии Генеральной Ассамблеи ООН, прошедшей в сентябре 2004 года в Нью-Йорке. В работе сессии приняли участие делегации всех государств-членов. Поднимались вопросы, касающиеся борьбы с терроризмом, бедностью, ВИЧ, защиты прав человека и окружающей среды, оказания помощи бедным странам, реформирования ООН, восстановления Ирака и Афганистана, а также достижения мира на Ближнем Востоке.
Опубликовано на портале: 10-12-2003Alan M. Taylor NBER Working Paper Series. 2002. W8927 .
Recent globalization trends have refocused attention on the historical evolution of international capital mobility over the long run. The issue is examined here using time-series analysis of current-account dynamics for fifteen countries since circa 1850. The inter-war period emerges as an era of low capital mobility and only recently can we observe a tentative return to the degree of capital mobility witnessed during the late nineteenth century. The analysis of saving and investment dynamics also helps make sense of the frequently observed high correlation of saving and investment rates in historical data.
A Century of Missing Trade? [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003Antoni Estevadeordal, Alan M. Taylor NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. w8301.
In contemporary data, the measured factor content of trade is far smaller than its predicted magnitude in the pure Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek framework, the so-called 'missing trade' mystery. Authors wonder if this problem has been there from the beginning: that is, authors ask if the Heckscher-Ohlin theory was so much at odds with reality at its time of conception. Authors apply contemporary tests to historical data, focusing on the major trading zone that inspired the factor abundance theory, the Old and New Worlds of the pre-1914 'Greater Atlantic' economy. This places autor's analysis in a very different context than contemporary studies: an era with lower trade barriers, higher transport costs, a more skewed global distribution of the relevant factors (especially land), and comparably large productivity divergence. These conditions might seem more favorable to the theory, but the results are still very poor.
Опубликовано на портале: 25-10-2007Philippe Aghion, Philippe Bacchetta, Abhijit Banerjee Journal of Economic Theory. 2004. Vol. 119. No. 1. P. 6-30.
This paper presents a general equilibrium currency crisis model of the 'third generation', in which the possibility of currency crises is driven by the interplay between private firms' credit-constraints and nominal price rigidities. Despite our emphasis on microfoundations, the model remains sufficiently simple that the policy analysis can be conducted graphically. The analysis hinges on four main features: i) ex post deviations from purchasing power parity; ii) credit constraints a la Bernanke-Gertler; iii) foreign currency borrowing by domestic firms; iv) a competitive banking sector lending to firms and holding reserves and a monetary policy conducted either through open market operations or short-term lending facilities. We first show that with a positive likelihood of a currency crisis, firms may indeed find it optimal to borrow in foreign currency, following Chamon (2001). Second, we derive sufficient conditions for the existence of a sunspot equilibrium with currency crises. Third, we show that a reduction in the monetary base through restrictive open market operations is more likely to eliminate the possibility of currency crises if at the same time the central bank does not impose excessive constraints on short-term lending facilities
Addicted to Dollars [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 10-12-2003Kenneth S. Rogoff, Carmen M. Reinhart, Miguel A. Savastano NBER Working Paper Series. 2003. W10015 .
Dollarization, in a broad sense, is increasingly a defining characteristic of many emerging market economies. How important is this trend quantitatively and how important is it for the conduct of monetary policy and the choice of exchange rate regimes? Though these questions have become a hot topic in both the theory and policy literature, most efforts are remarkably uninformed by evidence, in no small part because meaningful data has been lacking, except for a very narrow range of assets. This paper attempts to move the discussion forward and shed light on the critical questions by proposing a measure of dollarization that is broad both conceptually and in terms of country coverage. We use this measure to identify trends in the evolution of dollarization in the developing world in the last two decades, and to ascertain the consequences that dollarization has had on the effectiveness of monetary and exchange rate policy. We find that, contrary to the general presumption in the literature, a high degree of dollarization does not seem to be an obstacle to monetary control or to disinflation. A level of dollarization does, however, appear to increase exchange rate pass-through, reinforcing the claim that 'fear of floating' is a greater problem for highly dollarized economies. We also review the developing countries' record in combating their addiction to dollars. Concretely, we try to explain why some countries have been able to avoid certain forms of the addiction, and examine the evidence on successful de-dollarization.
Опубликовано на портале: 11-11-2004Ricardo J. Caballero, Arvind Krishnamurthy NBER Working Paper Series. 2002. w8758.
The last few years have seen a significant re-evaluation of the models used to analyze crises in emerging markets. Recent models typically stress financial constraints or distorted financial incentives. While this certainly represents progress, these models share a weakness with the earlier work: neither is uniquely about emerging markets. Adaptations of the Mundell-Fleming model represent Argentina as a Belgium with larger external shocks. Likewise, emerging market models of financial constraints are adaptations of developed economy ones with tighter financial constraints. In our work, we have advocated a model which distinguishes between the financial constraints affecting borrowing and lending among agents within an emerging economy, and those affecting borrowing from foreign lenders. This 'dual liquidity' model offers a parsimonious description of the behavior of firms, governments, and asset prices during financial crises. It also provides prescriptions for optimal policy responses to these crises.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003Robert E. Lipsey NBER Working Paper Series. 1999. No. 7292.
Since 1977, and in some cases starting before that, most East Asian countries’ export patterns in manufacturing have been transformed from industry distributions typical of developing countries to distributions more like those of advanced countries. The process of change in most cases started with inward FDI to produce for export in the new industries, particularly by U.S. firms in electronics and computer-related machinery. The U.S. firms were followed, in electronics, by Japanese multinationals. Over time, in most cases, the U.S.-owned affiliates turned more to sales in host-country market and their share in host country exports declined, although the host countries’ specializations in the new industries continued. U.S. and Japanese firms played somewhat different roles. U.S. firms’ investments were always distributed more along the lines of U.S. export comparative advantage, far from the previous patterns of the host countries. The industry distribution of Japanese investments initially followed more the lines of the host countries’ comparative advantage and Japanese affiliates were less export-oriented than U.S. affiliates. However, Japanese affiliates have become more like U.S. affiliates in both export orientation and industry composition. Their early concentration in textiles and apparel faded and they are more heavily concentrated than U.S. affiliates and more export-oriented in both electrical machinery and transport equipment.
Опубликовано на портале: 03-12-2007Helmut Herwart, Fang Xu Economics Working Papers of Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. 2004. No. 2007-14.
What does the saving-investment (SI) relation really measure and how should the (SI) relation be measured? These are two of the most discussed issues triggered by the so called Feldstein-Horioka puzzle. Based on panel data we introduce a new variant of functional coefficient models that allow to separate long and short to medium run parameter dependence. We apply the latter to uncover the determinants of the SI relation. Macroeconomic state variables such as openness, the age dependency ratio, government current and consumption expenditures are found to affect the SI relation significantly in the long run.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003Andrew K. Rose, Mark M. Spiegel NBER Working Paper Series. 2002. w9285.
One reason why countries service their external debts is the fear that default might lead to shrinkage of international trade. If so, then creditors should systematically lend more to countries with which they share closer trade links. Autors develop a simple theoretical model to capture this intuition, then test and corroborate this idea.
Опубликовано на портале: 24-12-2003Douglas A. Irwin, Nina Pavcnik NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. w8648.
This paper examines international competition in the commercial aircraft industry. We estimate a discrete choice, differentiated products demand system for wide-body aircraft and examine the Airbus-Boeing rivalry under various assumptions on firm conduct. We then use this structure to evaluate two trade disputes between the United States and European Union. Our results suggest that the aircraft prices increased by about 3 percent after the 1992 U.S. -- E.U. agreement on trade in civil aircraft that limits subsidies. This price hike is consistent with a 7.5 percent increase in firms' marginal costs after the subsidy cuts. We also simulate the impact of the future entry of the Airbus A-380 super-jumbo aircraft on the demand for other wide-bodied aircraft, notably the Boeing 747. We find that the A-380 could reduce the market share of the 747 by up to 14 percent in the long range wide-body market segment (depending upon the discounts offered on the A-380), but would reduce the market for Airbus's existing wide-bodies by an even greater margin.
Опубликовано на портале: 24-12-2007Elena Schneider, Pu Chen, Joachim Frohn Economics Discussion Papers. 2007. No. 2007-47.
The objective of this paper is to apply the method developed in Garratt, Lee, Pesaran, and Shin (2000) to build a structural model for Germany with a transparent and theoretically coherent foundation. The modelling strategy consists of a set of long-run structural relationships suggested by economic theory and an otherwise unrestricted VAR model. It turns out that we can rebuild the structure of the model in Garratt, Lee, Pesaran, and Shin (2003b) for German data. Five long run relations : PPP, UIP, production function, trade balance, and real money balance characterize the equilibrium state of Germany as an open economy in our structural model.
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003Edward E. Leamer NBER Working Paper Series. 1994. w4753.
A free trade agreement supports global free trade since trade barriers tend to divert trade in favor of members, but not reduce imports. The term: 'mutual assured deterrence' is used to refer to a regional free trade association that has the feature that no member can gain individually from the imposition of a barrier against a non- member. Mutual assured deterrence is shown to be possible for a surprisingly rich set of partners. A customs union is compatible with global free trade if the vast majority of trade takes place naturally within the confines of the association. A customs union that is likely to have this property would combine countries to form a nearly exact economic replica of the globe. The economic combination of Mexico and the United States doesn't form a replica of the global economy because, compared with Asia, North America has relatively high capital per worker even after adding the Mexican workforce. However, NAFTA does seem to have the property of mutual assured deterrence, and may for that reason amount to a commitment to global free trade as well as regional free trade.
A Model of an Optimum Currency Area [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 24-12-2007Luca Ricci Economics Discussion Papers. 2007. No. 2007-45.
This paper develops a model of the circumstances under which it is beneficial to participate in a currency area. The proposed two-country monetary model of trade with nominal rigidities encompasses the real and monetary arguments suggested by the optimum currency area literature: correlation of real and monetary shocks, international factor mobility, fiscal adjustment, openness, difference in national inflationary biases, and transactions costs. The effect of openness on the net benefits is ambiguous, contrary to the usual argument that more open economies are better candidates for a currency area. Also, prospective member countries do not necessarily agree on whether a given currency union should be created.