Статьи
Всего статей в данном разделе : 136
A Century of Missing Trade? [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003
Antoni Estevadeordal, Alan M. Taylor
NBER Working Paper Series.
2001.
w8301.
In contemporary data, the measured factor content of trade is far smaller than its
predicted magnitude in the pure Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek framework, the so-called 'missing
trade' mystery. Authors wonder if this problem has been there from the beginning:
that
is, authors ask if the Heckscher-Ohlin theory was so much at odds with reality at
its
time of conception. Authors apply contemporary tests to historical data, focusing
on the
major trading zone that inspired the factor abundance theory, the Old and New Worlds
of the pre-1914 'Greater Atlantic' economy. This places autor's analysis in a very
different
context than contemporary studies: an era with lower trade barriers, higher transport
costs, a more skewed global distribution of the relevant factors (especially land),
and comparably large productivity divergence. These conditions might seem more favorable
to the theory, but the results are still very poor.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003
Robert E. Lipsey
NBER Working Paper Series.
1999.
No. 7292.
Since 1977, and in some cases starting before that, most East Asian countries’
export patterns in manufacturing have been transformed from industry distributions
typical of developing countries to distributions more like those of advanced countries.
The process of change in most cases started with inward FDI to produce for export
in the new industries, particularly by U.S. firms in electronics and computer-related
machinery. The U.S. firms were followed, in electronics, by Japanese multinationals.
Over time, in most cases, the U.S.-owned affiliates turned more to sales in host-country
market and their share in host country exports declined, although the host countries’
specializations in the new industries continued. U.S. and Japanese firms played somewhat
different roles. U.S. firms’ investments were always distributed more along
the lines of U.S. export comparative advantage, far from the previous patterns of
the host countries. The industry distribution of Japanese investments initially followed
more the lines of the host countries’ comparative advantage and Japanese affiliates
were less export-oriented than U.S. affiliates. However, Japanese affiliates have
become more like U.S. affiliates in both export orientation and industry composition.
Their early concentration in textiles and apparel faded and they are more heavily
concentrated than U.S. affiliates and more export-oriented in both electrical machinery
and transport equipment.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003
Andrew K. Rose, Mark M. Spiegel
NBER Working Paper Series.
2002.
w9285.
One reason why countries service their external debts is the fear that default might
lead to shrinkage of international trade. If so, then creditors should systematically
lend more to countries with which they share closer trade links. Autors develop a simple
theoretical model to capture this intuition, then test and corroborate this idea.
Опубликовано на портале: 24-12-2003
Douglas A. Irwin, Nina Pavcnik
NBER Working Paper Series.
2001.
w8648.
This paper examines international competition in the commercial aircraft industry.
We estimate a discrete choice, differentiated products demand system for wide-body
aircraft and examine the Airbus-Boeing rivalry under various assumptions on firm
conduct. We then use this structure to evaluate two trade disputes between the United
States and European Union. Our results suggest that the aircraft prices increased
by about 3 percent after the 1992 U.S. -- E.U. agreement on trade in civil aircraft
that limits subsidies. This price hike is consistent with a 7.5 percent increase
in firms' marginal costs after the subsidy cuts. We also simulate the impact of the
future entry of the Airbus A-380 super-jumbo aircraft on the demand for other wide-bodied
aircraft, notably the Boeing 747. We find that the A-380 could reduce the market
share of the 747 by up to 14 percent in the long range wide-body market segment (depending
upon the discounts offered on the A-380), but would reduce the market for Airbus's
existing wide-bodies by an even greater margin.
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003
Edward E. Leamer
NBER Working Paper Series.
1994.
w4753.
A free trade agreement supports global free trade since trade barriers tend to divert
trade in favor of members, but not reduce imports. The term: 'mutual assured deterrence'
is used to refer to a regional free trade association that has the feature that no
member can gain individually from the imposition of a barrier against a non- member.
Mutual assured deterrence is shown to be possible for a surprisingly rich set of
partners. A customs union is compatible with global free trade if the vast majority
of trade takes place naturally within the confines of the association. A customs
union that is likely to have this property would combine countries to form a nearly
exact economic replica of the globe. The economic combination of Mexico and the United
States doesn't form a replica of the global economy because, compared with Asia,
North America has relatively high capital per worker even after adding the Mexican
workforce. However, NAFTA does seem to have the property of mutual assured deterrence,
and may for that reason amount to a commitment to global free trade as well as regional
free trade.
Опубликовано на портале: 16-12-2003
Valerie Cerra, Sweta C. Saxena
IMF Working Paper Series.
2002.
No. 02/200 .
This paper studies the behavior of China's exports from the mid-1980s through 2001.
Extensive quarterly data on values and quantities of major export products have been
taken from Chinese customs statistics to form a panel data set. The data are used
to estimate export supply price elasticities, including by industry groups. The extensive
product level data permits the use of panel estimation techniques in order to increase
the power of the testing methodology. Aggregate quarterly export unit price indices
are also constructed and thereby provide an input to future research on China's trade.
Опубликовано на портале: 16-12-2003
Carsten Fink, Aaditya Mattoo, Ileana Cristina Neagu
World Bank Policy Research Working Papers.
2002.
No. 2929.
Recent research suggests that trade costs have a strong influence on the pattern
of specialization and trade, but there is limited empirical research on the determinants
of trade costs. The existing literature identifies a range of barriers that separate
nations, but then typically focuses only on transport costs. Although communication
costs figure prominently in intuitive explanations and casual observations, they
have played little role in the formal analysis of trade costs. Fink, Mattoo, and
Neagu seek to examine whether this neglect matters, and whether the inclusion of
the magnitude and variation of communication costs across partner countries can add
value to existing explanations of the pattern of trade.
The authors develop a simple multi-sector model of “impeded” trade that
generates testable hypotheses in a gravity-type estimation framework. The main proxies
for bilateral communication costs are the per-minute country-to-country calling prices
charged in the importing and exporting countries. The use of bilateral variations
in prices yields estimates that are superior to the ones obtained from country-specific
measures of communication infrastructure used in previous studies. The authors find
that international variations in communication costs indeed have a significant influence
on bilateral trade flows—both at the aggregate level and for most individual
sectors disaggregated according to the 2-digit SITC classification.
Since information and communication needs are likely to be much greater for differentiated
goods, the authors test whether trade in these products is more sensitive to variations
in the costs of communication. Using the Rauch classification of product heterogeneity,
the estimates suggest that the impact of communication costs on trade in differentiated
products is as much as one-third larger than on trade in homogenous products. Finally,
the authors verify, to the extent possible, that the significance of communication
costs is not driven by their endogeneity or by omitted variables.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003
Philippe Bacchetta, Eric van Wincoop
NBER Working Paper Series.
2002.
w9039.
Nominal rigidities due to menu costs have become a standard element in closed economy
macroeconomic modeling. The "New Open Economy Macroeconomics" literature has investigated
the implications of nominal rigidities in an open economy context and found that
the currency in which prices are set has significant implications for exchange rate
pass-through to import prices, the level of trade and net capital flows, and optimal
monetary and exchange rate policy. While the literature has exogenously assumed in
which currencies goods are priced, in this paper autors solve for the equilibrium optimal
pricing strategies of firms. Autors find that the higher the market share of an exporting
country in an industry, and the more differentiated its goods, the more likely its
exporters will price in the exporter's currency. Country size and the cyclicality
of real wages play a role as well, but are empirically less important. Autors also show
that when a set of countries forms a monetary union, the new currency is likely to
be used more extensively in trade than the sum of the currencies it replaces.
Borders, Trade and Welfare [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003
James Anderson, Eric van Wincoop
NBER Working Paper Series.
2001.
w8515.
International economic integration yields large potential welfare effects, even in
a static constant returns competitive world economy. Our method is novel. The effect
of border barriers on trade flows is often inferred from gravity models. But their
rather atheoretic structure precludes welfare analysis. Computable general equilibrium
models are designed for tight welfare analysis, but lack econometric foundation.
Our method combines these approaches. Gravity models based on Anderson's (1979) interpretation
are full general equilibrium models of a special simple sort. In Anderson and van
Wincoop (NBER WP 8079, 2001) we develop and estimate this structure, then calculate
the comparative static effects on trade flows of border barriers. In this paper we
further deploy the model to explore the comparative statics of welfare with respect
to borders, to currency unions and to NAFTA. Our NAFTA exercise does a much better
job of replicating the actual trade flow changes than do computable general equilibrium
models. An interesting implication is that terms of trade changes are very important,
even for small' countries such as Mexico.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003
Huiwen Lai, Daniel Trefler
NBER Working Paper Series.
2002.
w9169.
The difficulty of incorporating general equilibrium price effects into econometric
estimating equations has deterred most researchers from econometrically estimating
the welfare gains from trade liberalization. Using a paired-down CES monopolistic
competition example, autors show that this difficulty has been greatly exaggerated. Along
the way, we estimate indeed precisely estimate large welfare gains from trade liberalization
as measured by compensating variation. Unlike calibration methods, econometric methods
allow researchers to isolate the violence done by the model to the data. Autors find
that the CES monopolistic competition model horribly mis-specifies behavioural price
elasticities and general equilibrium price feedbacks. The model as conceived is therefore
of limited value for analysing the effects of trade liberalization. Autors report a number
of specification issues that should point the way to better theoretical modeling.
Опубликовано на портале: 25-10-2007
Reuven Glick, Andrew K. Rose
Journal of Intrernational Money and Finance.
1999.
Vol. 18.
No. 4.
P. 603-617.
Currency crises tend to be regional; they affect countries in geographic proximity.
This suggests that patterns of international trade are important in understanding
how currency crises spread, above and beyond any macroeconomic phenomena. We provide
empirical support for this hypothesis. Using data for five different currency crises
(in 1971, 1973, 1992, 1994, and 1997) we show that currency crises affect clusters
of countries tied together by international trade. By way of contrast, macroeconomic
and financial influences are not closely associated with the cross-country incidence
of speculative attacks. We also show that trade linkages help explain cross-country
correlations in exchange market pressure during crisis episodes, even after controlling
for macroeconomic factors
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003
Lorenzo Giorgianni, Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti
IMF Working Paper Series.
1997.
No. 97/54 .
A distinguishing feature of the strong economic performance enjoyed by Korea and
other newly industrializing Asian economies has been the rapid growth of export and
import flows. In recent years, the growing weight of East Asian countries in the
world economy and their increasing trade integration have been accompanied by a substantial
change in the geographical destination of Korea's exports. While growth in Korean
exports to member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
(OECD) has slowed down considerably, exports to other East Asian countries have boomed.
This paper examines the extent to which the Korean experience can be explained within
traditional trade models. It provides evidence on how exports and imports react to
changes in relative prices and in foreign and domestic demand, and investigates the
determinants of the direction of Korean exports.
Two important issues are dealt with differently from previous studies. First, in
light of the high weight of raw materials and capital goods in Korea's imports, the
hypothesis that investment expenditure is the most important explanatory variable
for import demand is examined. Second, export demand and supply elasticities are
obtained by estimating a simultaneous structural model in which the long- and short-run
dynamic properties of the data are fully specified.
Estimation results indicate that real consumption and investment are important determinants
of aggregate imports in Korea and that a specification that employs aggregate expenditure
implicitly underestimates the relative importance of investment. The demand for Korean
exports exhibits high elasticity with respect to foreign income and relative export
prices. The decline in the share of exports to industrial countries is linked not
only to the decline in the relative importance of OECD countries in world trade,
but also to the increased penetration of industrial countries. markets by other Asian
developing countries.
Опубликовано на портале: 02-11-2012
G. Fainstein, A. Netsunajev
Экономические науки.
2012.
№ 2.
С. 348-352.
Trade with the EU has been a priority for Estonian foreign trade since the early 1990s. Inthis paper, authors investigate development of Estonian trade commodity flows into theEU market in 1991-2007. Three main issues are analysed: first, changes in commoditycomposition of export and import; second, development of Estonian comparativeadvantage; third, intra-industry trade and some of its most relevant aspects.
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003
Reuven Glick, Andrew K. Rose
NBER Working Paper Series.
2001.
w8396.
Does leaving a currency union reduce international trade? We answer this question
using a large annual panel data set covering 217 countries from 1948 through 1997.
During this sample a large number of countries left currency unions; they experienced
economically and statistically significant declines in bilateral trade, after accounting
for other factors. Assuming symmetry, we estimate that a pair of countries that starts
to use a common currency experiences a doubling in bilateral trade.
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003
Donald R. Davis, David E. Weinstein
NBER Working Paper Series.
2001.
w8516.
The dominant paradigm of world trade patterns posits two principal features. Trade
between North and South arises due to traditional comparative advantage, largely
determined by differences in endowment patterns. Trade within the North, much of
it intra-industry trade, is based on economies of scale and product differentiation.
The paradigm specifically denies an important role for endowment differences in determining
North-North trade. This paper provides the first sound empirical examination of this
question. We demonstrate that trade in factor services among countries of the North
is systematically related to endowment differences and large in economic magnitude.
Intra-industry trade, rather than being a puzzle for a factor endowments theory,
is instead the conduit for a great deal of this factor service trade.
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