NBER Working Paper Series
A Century of Missing Trade? [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003
Antoni Estevadeordal, Alan M. Taylor
NBER Working Paper Series.
2001.
w8301.
In contemporary data, the measured factor content of trade is far smaller than its
predicted magnitude in the pure Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek framework, the so-called 'missing
trade' mystery. Authors wonder if this problem has been there from the beginning:
that
is, authors ask if the Heckscher-Ohlin theory was so much at odds with reality at
its
time of conception. Authors apply contemporary tests to historical data, focusing
on the
major trading zone that inspired the factor abundance theory, the Old and New Worlds
of the pre-1914 'Greater Atlantic' economy. This places autor's analysis in a very
different
context than contemporary studies: an era with lower trade barriers, higher transport
costs, a more skewed global distribution of the relevant factors (especially land),
and comparably large productivity divergence. These conditions might seem more favorable
to the theory, but the results are still very poor.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003
Robert E. Lipsey
NBER Working Paper Series.
1999.
No. 7292.
Since 1977, and in some cases starting before that, most East Asian countries’
export patterns in manufacturing have been transformed from industry distributions
typical of developing countries to distributions more like those of advanced countries.
The process of change in most cases started with inward FDI to produce for export
in the new industries, particularly by U.S. firms in electronics and computer-related
machinery. The U.S. firms were followed, in electronics, by Japanese multinationals.
Over time, in most cases, the U.S.-owned affiliates turned more to sales in host-country
market and their share in host country exports declined, although the host countries’
specializations in the new industries continued. U.S. and Japanese firms played somewhat
different roles. U.S. firms’ investments were always distributed more along
the lines of U.S. export comparative advantage, far from the previous patterns of
the host countries. The industry distribution of Japanese investments initially followed
more the lines of the host countries’ comparative advantage and Japanese affiliates
were less export-oriented than U.S. affiliates. However, Japanese affiliates have
become more like U.S. affiliates in both export orientation and industry composition.
Their early concentration in textiles and apparel faded and they are more heavily
concentrated than U.S. affiliates and more export-oriented in both electrical machinery
and transport equipment.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003
Andrew K. Rose, Mark M. Spiegel
NBER Working Paper Series.
2002.
w9285.
One reason why countries service their external debts is the fear that default might
lead to shrinkage of international trade. If so, then creditors should systematically
lend more to countries with which they share closer trade links. Autors develop a simple
theoretical model to capture this intuition, then test and corroborate this idea.
Опубликовано на портале: 24-12-2003
Douglas A. Irwin, Nina Pavcnik
NBER Working Paper Series.
2001.
w8648.
This paper examines international competition in the commercial aircraft industry.
We estimate a discrete choice, differentiated products demand system for wide-body
aircraft and examine the Airbus-Boeing rivalry under various assumptions on firm
conduct. We then use this structure to evaluate two trade disputes between the United
States and European Union. Our results suggest that the aircraft prices increased
by about 3 percent after the 1992 U.S. -- E.U. agreement on trade in civil aircraft
that limits subsidies. This price hike is consistent with a 7.5 percent increase
in firms' marginal costs after the subsidy cuts. We also simulate the impact of the
future entry of the Airbus A-380 super-jumbo aircraft on the demand for other wide-bodied
aircraft, notably the Boeing 747. We find that the A-380 could reduce the market
share of the 747 by up to 14 percent in the long range wide-body market segment (depending
upon the discounts offered on the A-380), but would reduce the market for Airbus's
existing wide-bodies by an even greater margin.
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003
Edward E. Leamer
NBER Working Paper Series.
1994.
w4753.
A free trade agreement supports global free trade since trade barriers tend to divert
trade in favor of members, but not reduce imports. The term: 'mutual assured deterrence'
is used to refer to a regional free trade association that has the feature that no
member can gain individually from the imposition of a barrier against a non- member.
Mutual assured deterrence is shown to be possible for a surprisingly rich set of
partners. A customs union is compatible with global free trade if the vast majority
of trade takes place naturally within the confines of the association. A customs
union that is likely to have this property would combine countries to form a nearly
exact economic replica of the globe. The economic combination of Mexico and the United
States doesn't form a replica of the global economy because, compared with Asia,
North America has relatively high capital per worker even after adding the Mexican
workforce. However, NAFTA does seem to have the property of mutual assured deterrence,
and may for that reason amount to a commitment to global free trade as well as regional
free trade.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003
Philippe Bacchetta, Eric van Wincoop
NBER Working Paper Series.
2002.
w9039.
Nominal rigidities due to menu costs have become a standard element in closed economy
macroeconomic modeling. The "New Open Economy Macroeconomics" literature has investigated
the implications of nominal rigidities in an open economy context and found that
the currency in which prices are set has significant implications for exchange rate
pass-through to import prices, the level of trade and net capital flows, and optimal
monetary and exchange rate policy. While the literature has exogenously assumed in
which currencies goods are priced, in this paper autors solve for the equilibrium optimal
pricing strategies of firms. Autors find that the higher the market share of an exporting
country in an industry, and the more differentiated its goods, the more likely its
exporters will price in the exporter's currency. Country size and the cyclicality
of real wages play a role as well, but are empirically less important. Autors also show
that when a set of countries forms a monetary union, the new currency is likely to
be used more extensively in trade than the sum of the currencies it replaces.
Borders, Trade and Welfare [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003
James Anderson, Eric van Wincoop
NBER Working Paper Series.
2001.
w8515.
International economic integration yields large potential welfare effects, even in
a static constant returns competitive world economy. Our method is novel. The effect
of border barriers on trade flows is often inferred from gravity models. But their
rather atheoretic structure precludes welfare analysis. Computable general equilibrium
models are designed for tight welfare analysis, but lack econometric foundation.
Our method combines these approaches. Gravity models based on Anderson's (1979) interpretation
are full general equilibrium models of a special simple sort. In Anderson and van
Wincoop (NBER WP 8079, 2001) we develop and estimate this structure, then calculate
the comparative static effects on trade flows of border barriers. In this paper we
further deploy the model to explore the comparative statics of welfare with respect
to borders, to currency unions and to NAFTA. Our NAFTA exercise does a much better
job of replicating the actual trade flow changes than do computable general equilibrium
models. An interesting implication is that terms of trade changes are very important,
even for small' countries such as Mexico.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003
Huiwen Lai, Daniel Trefler
NBER Working Paper Series.
2002.
w9169.
The difficulty of incorporating general equilibrium price effects into econometric
estimating equations has deterred most researchers from econometrically estimating
the welfare gains from trade liberalization. Using a paired-down CES monopolistic
competition example, autors show that this difficulty has been greatly exaggerated. Along
the way, we estimate indeed precisely estimate large welfare gains from trade liberalization
as measured by compensating variation. Unlike calibration methods, econometric methods
allow researchers to isolate the violence done by the model to the data. Autors find
that the CES monopolistic competition model horribly mis-specifies behavioural price
elasticities and general equilibrium price feedbacks. The model as conceived is therefore
of limited value for analysing the effects of trade liberalization. Autors report a number
of specification issues that should point the way to better theoretical modeling.
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003
Reuven Glick, Andrew K. Rose
NBER Working Paper Series.
2001.
w8396.
Does leaving a currency union reduce international trade? We answer this question
using a large annual panel data set covering 217 countries from 1948 through 1997.
During this sample a large number of countries left currency unions; they experienced
economically and statistically significant declines in bilateral trade, after accounting
for other factors. Assuming symmetry, we estimate that a pair of countries that starts
to use a common currency experiences a doubling in bilateral trade.
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003
Donald R. Davis, David E. Weinstein
NBER Working Paper Series.
2001.
w8516.
The dominant paradigm of world trade patterns posits two principal features. Trade
between North and South arises due to traditional comparative advantage, largely
determined by differences in endowment patterns. Trade within the North, much of
it intra-industry trade, is based on economies of scale and product differentiation.
The paradigm specifically denies an important role for endowment differences in determining
North-North trade. This paper provides the first sound empirical examination of this
question. We demonstrate that trade in factor services among countries of the North
is systematically related to endowment differences and large in economic magnitude.
Intra-industry trade, rather than being a puzzle for a factor endowments theory,
is instead the conduit for a great deal of this factor service trade.
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003
Peter K. Schott
NBER Working Paper Series.
2001.
w8492.
Unit values of US imports at the product level reveal a substantial degree of vertical
product differentiation among countries exporting to the US. This specialization
is not apparent by looking solely at trade flows. Two trends stand out. First, the
portion of US import products originating in either rich or poor countries exclusively
has fallen dramatically as US trade barriers have fallen, from 41% in 1972 to 17%
in 1994. Indeed, by 1994, nearly three quarters the products imported into the US
were sourced simultaneously from rich and poor countries. Second, within-product
unit value dispersion is positively and significantly correlated with source country
income: men's shirts imported from Japan in 1994, for example, are about thirty times
as expensive as shirts originating in the Philippines. These unit value premia, and
their increase over time, are consistent with the factor proportions framework but
convey a stark warning: industry trade flow data alone are too coarse to meet the
assumptions underlying most tests of trade theory.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003
Karolina Ekholm, Rikard Forslid, James R. Markusen
NBER Working Paper Series.
2003.
w9517.
Export-platform foreign direct investment in which the affiliate's output is (largely)
sold in third markets rather than in the parent or host markets has received empirical
attention recently, but little theoretical analysis. This paper is an attempt to
make some sense of this phenomenon. Autors use a three-region model in which there are
two identical, large, high-cost economies and a small low-cost economy. Pure export-platform
production arises in a symmetric case, when a firm in each of the high-cost economies
has a plant at home, and a plant in the low-cost country (the South) to serve the
other high-cost country. This occurs when trade costs for intermediates (components)
and plant-fixed costs are moderate and the South has a moderate cost advantage in
assembly. Another interesting and empirically important case arises when there is
trade liberalization between one of the high-cost countries and the small, low-cost
country. The outside high-cost country may wish to build a branch plant inside the
free trade area due to market size, but chooses the low-cost country on the basis
of cost. Or a firm headquartered in the large country inside the free-trade area
might build a single plant in its low-wage partner in order to serve their joint
free-trade area and to export to the outside high-cost country.
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003
Jiandong Ju, Kala Krishna
NBER Working Paper Series.
1998.
w6857.
Authors develop a model to study the behavior of firms in a Free Trade Area with Rules
of Origin and the consequences of this behavior on the market equilibrium and outcome.
Authors show that firms will choose to specialize, and that an FTA with strict ROOs
on
the intermediate good raises imports and hence improves market access in the final
good market reduces imports and hence harms market access in the intermediate good
market. More restrictive ROOs on the final good first raise and then lower imports
of the final good lower than raise imports of the intermediate good. Their turning
point is common so that imports of the final good are maximized and imports of the
intermediate good are minimized at a common level of restrictiveness of the rules
of origin. Authors show that our model can be reinterpreted to show that more restrictive
ROOs on the final good first improves and then harms the fortunes of labor, and to
cast light on a particular policy to improve market access. Other problems with a
similar structure could also be analyzed using our techniques; authors expect similar
results.
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003
Pol Antras
NBER Working Paper Series.
2003.
w9740.
Roughly one-third of world trade is intrafirm trade. This paper starts by unveiling
two systematic patterns in the volume of intrafirm trade. In a panel of industries,
the share of intrafirm imports in total U.S. imports is significantly higher, the
higher the capital intensity of the exporting industry. In a cross-section of countries
U.S. imports is significantly higher, the higher the capital-labor ratio of the exporting
country. I then show that these patterns can be rationalized in a theoretical framework
that combines a Grossman-Hart-Moore view of the firm with a Helpman-Krugman view
of international trade. In particular an incomplete-contracting, property-rights
model of the boundaries of the firm, which I then incorporate into a standard trade
model with imperfect competition and product differentiation. The model pins down
the boundaries of multinational firms as well as the international location of production,
and it is shown to predict the patterns of intrafirm trade identified above. Econometric
evidence reveals that the model is consistent with other qualitative and quantitative
features of the data.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003
Robert E. Lipsey, Zadia Feliciano
NBER Working Paper Series.
2002.
w9122.
Using U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis data for individual foreign acquisitions and
new establishments in the U.S from 1988 to 1998, and aggregate data for 1980 to 1998,
autors find that acquisitions and establishments of new firms tend to occur in periods
of high U.S. growth and take place mainly in industries in which the investing country
has some comparative advantage in exporting. New establishments are largely in industries
of U.S. comparative disadvantage, and the relation of U.S. comparative advantage
to takeovers is also negative, but never significant. High U.S. stock prices, industry
profitability, and industry growth discourage takeovers. High U.S interest rates
and high investing country growth and currency values encourage takeovers. Direct
investments in acquisitions and new establishments thus tend to flow in the same
direction as trade. They originate in countries with comparative advantages in particular
industries and flow to industries of U.S. comparative disadvantage.
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