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A Century of Missing Trade? [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003
Antoni Estevadeordal, Alan M. Taylor
NBER Working Paper Series.
2001.
w8301.
In contemporary data, the measured factor content of trade is far smaller than its
predicted magnitude in the pure Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek framework, the so-called 'missing
trade' mystery. Authors wonder if this problem has been there from the beginning:
that
is, authors ask if the Heckscher-Ohlin theory was so much at odds with reality at
its
time of conception. Authors apply contemporary tests to historical data, focusing
on the
major trading zone that inspired the factor abundance theory, the Old and New Worlds
of the pre-1914 'Greater Atlantic' economy. This places autor's analysis in a very
different
context than contemporary studies: an era with lower trade barriers, higher transport
costs, a more skewed global distribution of the relevant factors (especially land),
and comparably large productivity divergence. These conditions might seem more favorable
to the theory, but the results are still very poor.
Опубликовано на портале: 24-12-2003
Douglas A. Irwin, Nina Pavcnik
NBER Working Paper Series.
2001.
w8648.
This paper examines international competition in the commercial aircraft industry.
We estimate a discrete choice, differentiated products demand system for wide-body
aircraft and examine the Airbus-Boeing rivalry under various assumptions on firm
conduct. We then use this structure to evaluate two trade disputes between the United
States and European Union. Our results suggest that the aircraft prices increased
by about 3 percent after the 1992 U.S. -- E.U. agreement on trade in civil aircraft
that limits subsidies. This price hike is consistent with a 7.5 percent increase
in firms' marginal costs after the subsidy cuts. We also simulate the impact of the
future entry of the Airbus A-380 super-jumbo aircraft on the demand for other wide-bodied
aircraft, notably the Boeing 747. We find that the A-380 could reduce the market
share of the 747 by up to 14 percent in the long range wide-body market segment (depending
upon the discounts offered on the A-380), but would reduce the market for Airbus's
existing wide-bodies by an even greater margin.
Borders, Trade and Welfare [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003
James Anderson, Eric van Wincoop
NBER Working Paper Series.
2001.
w8515.
International economic integration yields large potential welfare effects, even in
a static constant returns competitive world economy. Our method is novel. The effect
of border barriers on trade flows is often inferred from gravity models. But their
rather atheoretic structure precludes welfare analysis. Computable general equilibrium
models are designed for tight welfare analysis, but lack econometric foundation.
Our method combines these approaches. Gravity models based on Anderson's (1979) interpretation
are full general equilibrium models of a special simple sort. In Anderson and van
Wincoop (NBER WP 8079, 2001) we develop and estimate this structure, then calculate
the comparative static effects on trade flows of border barriers. In this paper we
further deploy the model to explore the comparative statics of welfare with respect
to borders, to currency unions and to NAFTA. Our NAFTA exercise does a much better
job of replicating the actual trade flow changes than do computable general equilibrium
models. An interesting implication is that terms of trade changes are very important,
even for small' countries such as Mexico.
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003
Reuven Glick, Andrew K. Rose
NBER Working Paper Series.
2001.
w8396.
Does leaving a currency union reduce international trade? We answer this question
using a large annual panel data set covering 217 countries from 1948 through 1997.
During this sample a large number of countries left currency unions; they experienced
economically and statistically significant declines in bilateral trade, after accounting
for other factors. Assuming symmetry, we estimate that a pair of countries that starts
to use a common currency experiences a doubling in bilateral trade.
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003
Donald R. Davis, David E. Weinstein
NBER Working Paper Series.
2001.
w8516.
The dominant paradigm of world trade patterns posits two principal features. Trade
between North and South arises due to traditional comparative advantage, largely
determined by differences in endowment patterns. Trade within the North, much of
it intra-industry trade, is based on economies of scale and product differentiation.
The paradigm specifically denies an important role for endowment differences in determining
North-North trade. This paper provides the first sound empirical examination of this
question. We demonstrate that trade in factor services among countries of the North
is systematically related to endowment differences and large in economic magnitude.
Intra-industry trade, rather than being a puzzle for a factor endowments theory,
is instead the conduit for a great deal of this factor service trade.
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003
Peter K. Schott
NBER Working Paper Series.
2001.
w8492.
Unit values of US imports at the product level reveal a substantial degree of vertical
product differentiation among countries exporting to the US. This specialization
is not apparent by looking solely at trade flows. Two trends stand out. First, the
portion of US import products originating in either rich or poor countries exclusively
has fallen dramatically as US trade barriers have fallen, from 41% in 1972 to 17%
in 1994. Indeed, by 1994, nearly three quarters the products imported into the US
were sourced simultaneously from rich and poor countries. Second, within-product
unit value dispersion is positively and significantly correlated with source country
income: men's shirts imported from Japan in 1994, for example, are about thirty times
as expensive as shirts originating in the Philippines. These unit value premia, and
their increase over time, are consistent with the factor proportions framework but
convey a stark warning: industry trade flow data alone are too coarse to meet the
assumptions underlying most tests of trade theory.
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003
James R. Markusen, Keith E. Maskus
NBER Working Paper Series.
2001.
w8334.
Beginning in the early 1980s, theoretical analyses have incorporated the multinational
firm into the microeconomic, general-equilibrium theory of international trade. Recent
advances indicate how vertical and horizontal multinationals arise endogenously as
determined by country characteristics, including relative size and relative endowment
differences, and trade and investment costs. Results also characterize the relationship
between foreign affiliate production and international trade in goods and services.
In this paper, we survey some of this recent work, and note the testable predictions
generated in the theory. In the second part of the paper, we examine empirical results
that relate foreign affiliate production to country characteristics and trade/investment
cost factors. We also review findings from analyses of the pattern of substitutability
or complementarity between trade and foreign production.
International Technology Diffusion [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 24-12-2003
Wolfgang Keller
NBER Working Paper Series.
2001.
w8573.
I discuss the concept and empirical importance of international technology diffusion
from the point of view of recent work on endogenous technological change. In this
literature, technology is viewed as technological knowledge. I first review the major
concepts, and how international technology diffusion relates to other factors affecting
economic growth in open economies. The following main section of the paper provides
a review of recent empirical results on (i) basic results in international technology
diffusion; (ii) the importance of specific channels of diffusion, in particular trade
and foreign direct investment; (iii) the spatial distribution of technological knowledge,
and (iv) other issues.
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003
Sanghamitra Das, James R. Tybout, Mark J. Roberts
NBER Working Paper Series.
2001.
No. 8629.
As the exchange rate, foreign demand, production costs and export promotion policies
evolve, manufacturing firms are continually faced with two issues: Whether to be
an exporter, and if so, how much to export. Authors develop a dynamic structural
model
of export supply that characterizes these two decisions and estimate the model using
plant-level panel data on Colombian chemical producers. The model embodies uncertainty,
plant-level heterogeneity in export profits, and sunk entry costs for plants breaking
into foreign markets. Author's estimates, and the simulation exercises that they
support,
yield several implications. First, entry costs are typically large, but vary greatly
across producers. Second, there is substantial cross-plant heterogeneity in gross
expected export profit streams. Third, these large entry costs make expectations
about future exporting conditions important for many producers, so changes in the
exchange rate regime that are credible induce much more entry than those that are
not. Fourth, however, most of the entry and exit takes place among marginal exporters
who contribute little to aggregate export revenues. Finally, subsidies on export
earnings have a much larger impact on export revenues (per dollar spent) than subsidies
that reduce the entry costs faced by new exporters.
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003
James R. Tybout
NBER Working Paper Series.
2001.
w8418.
By relaxing the assumption of perfect competition, the 'new' trade theory has generated
a rich body of predictions concerning the effects of commercial policy on price-cost
mark-ups, firm sizes, exports, productivity and profitability among domestic producers.
This paper critically assesses the plant- and firm-level evidence on these linkages.
Several robust findings are identified. First, mark-ups generally fall with import
competition, but it is not clear whether this phenomenon reflect the elimination
of market power or the creation of negative economic profits. Second, import-competing
firms cut back their production levels when foreign competition intensifies, at least
in the short run. This suggests that sunk entry or exit costs are important in most
sectors. Third, trade rationalizes production in the sense that markets for the most
efficient plants are expanded, but large import-competing firms tend to simultaneously
contract. Fourth exposure to foreign competition often improves intra-plant efficiency.
Fifth, firms that engage in international activities tend to be larger, more productive,
and supply higher quality products. However the literature is mixed on whether international
activities cause these characteristics or vice versa. Finally, the short-run and
long-run effects of commercial policy on exports and market structure can be quite
different. Both types of response depend upon initial conditions, sunk entry costs,
and the extent of firm heterogeneity.
Опубликовано на портале: 24-12-2003
James Harrigan
NBER Working Paper Series.
2001.
w8675.
The core subjects of trade theory are the pattern and volume of trade: which goods
are traded by which countries, and how much of those goods are traded. The first
part of the paper discusses evidence on comparative advantage, with an emphasis on
carefully connecting theory models to data analyses. The second part of the chapter
first considers the theoretical foundations of the gravity model, and then reviews
the small number of papers that have tried to test, rather than simply use, the implications
of gravity. Both parts of the paper yield the same conclusion: we are still in the
very early stages of empirically understanding specialization and the volume of trade,
but the work that has been done can serve as a starting point for further research.
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003
Mattias Ganslandt, James R. Markusen
NBER Working Paper Series.
2001.
. w8346.
Standards and technical regulations which govern the admissibility of imported goods
into an economy raise costs of exporters entering new markets, and may have a particularly
high impact on firms seeking to export from developing countries. Yet standards may
also have a positive side, such as certifying product quality and safety for the
consumer. This paper suggests approaches to modeling standards and technical regulations,
with a particular concern that these approaches are at least potentially implementable
in an applied general-equilibrium model with real data.
Опубликовано на портале: 24-12-2003
Douglas A. Irwin
NBER Working Paper Series.
2001.
w8689.
The United States produced about 80 percent of the world's cotton in the decades
prior to the Civil War. How much monopoly power did the United States possess in
the world cotton market and what would have been the effect of an optimal export
tax? This paper estimates the elasticity of foreign demand for U.S. cotton exports
and uses the elasticity in a simple partial equilibrium model to calculate the optimal
export tax and its effect on prices, trade, and welfare. The results indicate that
the export demand elasticity for U.S. cotton was about -1.7 and that the optimal
export tax of about 50 percent would have raised U.S. welfare by about $6 million,
about 0.1 percent of U.S. GDP or about 0.5 percent of the South's GDP.
Опубликовано на портале: 24-12-2003
Douglas A. Irwin
NBER Working Paper Series.
2001.
w8692.
The United States came close to complete autarky in 1808 as a result of a self-imposed
embargo on international shipping from December 1807 to March 1809. Monthly prices
of exported and imported goods reveal the embargo's striking effect on commodity
markets and allow a calculation of its welfare effects. A simple general equilibrium
calculation suggests that the embargo cost about 8 percent of America's 1807 GNP,
at a time when the trade share was about 13 percent (domestic exports and shipping
earnings). The welfare cost was lower than the trade share because the embargo did
not completely eliminate trade and because domestic producers successfully shifted
production toward previously imported manufactured goods.
Опубликовано на портале: 24-12-2003
Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg, Nina Pavcnik
NBER Working Paper Series.
2001.
w8575.
Starting in 1985, Colombia experienced gradual trade liberalization that culminated
in the drastic tariff reductions of 1990-91. This paper exploits these trade reforms
to investigate the relationship between protection and wages. The focus of the analysis
is on relative wages, defined as industry wage premiums relative to the economy-wide
average wage. Using the June waves of the Colombian National Household Survey, we
first compute wage premiums for the period 1984-98, adjusting for a series of worker
characteristics, job and firm attributes, and informality. We find that industry
wage premiums in Colombia exhibit remarkably less persistence over time than U.S.
wage premiums. Similarly, measures of trade protection are less correlated over time
than in the U.S. data, indicating that as a result of trade liberalization the structure
of protection has changed. Regressions of wage premiums on tariffs, without industry
fixed effects, produce a negative relationship between protection and wages; workers
in protected sectors earn less than workers with similar observable characteristics
in unprotected sectors. With fixed effects the results are reversed: Trade protection
is found to increase relative wages. The effect is economically significant: Elimination
of tariffs in an industry with an average level of protection in 1984 would lead
to a 4% wage decline in this industry. For the most protected industries the effect
increases to 7.3%. We also find that - in contrast to the U.S. - sectors with high
import penetration in Colombia pay higher wages; nevertheless, regressions with industry
fixed effects indicate that an increase of imports in a particular sector is associated
with lower wages. The differences between the results with and without fixed effects
are indicative of the importance of (time-invariant) political economy factors as
determinants of protection. Further issues concerning the effects of trade liberalization,
such as the relevance of time-variant political economy factors, the importance of
employment guarantees, liberalization induced productivity changes, and the interplay
of trade and labor reforms, will be investigated in a sequel paper.
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