NBER Working Paper Series
- Выпуск N за 2001 год
- Выпуск N8096 за 2001 год
- Выпуск N8097 за 2001 год
- Выпуск N8101 за 2001 год
- Выпуск N8149 за 2001 год
- Выпуск N8230 за 2001 год
- Выпуск N8286 за 2001 год
- Выпуск N8354 за 2001 год
- Выпуск N8397 за 2001 год
- Выпуск N8550 за 2001 год
- Выпуск N8587 за 2001 год
- Выпуск N8617 за 2001 год
- Выпуск N8629 за 2001 год
- Выпуск N8685 за 2001 год
- Выпуск Nw8120 за 2001 год
- Выпуск Nw8245 за 2001 год
- Выпуск NW8274 за 2001 год
- Выпуск Nw8282 за 2001 год
- Выпуск Nw8301 за 2001 год
- Выпуск Nw8305 за 2001 год
- Выпуск Nw8323 за 2001 год
- Выпуск Nw8324 за 2001 год
- Выпуск Nw8330 за 2001 год
- Выпуск Nw8334 за 2001 год
- Выпуск N. w8346 за 2001 год
- Выпуск Nw8359 за 2001 год
- Выпуск Nw8369 за 2001 год
- Выпуск Nw8396 за 2001 год
- Выпуск Nw8418 за 2001 год
- Выпуск Nw8421 за 2001 год
- Выпуск Nw8492 за 2001 год
- Выпуск Nw8515 за 2001 год
- Выпуск Nw8516 за 2001 год
- Выпуск Nw8543 за 2001 год
- Выпуск Nw8558 за 2001 год
- Выпуск Nw8573 за 2001 год
- Выпуск Nw8575 за 2001 год
- Выпуск Nw8634 за 2001 год
- Выпуск Nw8645 за 2001 год
- Выпуск Nw8648 за 2001 год
- Выпуск Nw8675 за 2001 год
- Выпуск Nw8689 за 2001 год
- Выпуск Nw8692 за 2001 год
A Century of Missing Trade? [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003Antoni Estevadeordal, Alan M. Taylor NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. w8301.
In contemporary data, the measured factor content of trade is far smaller than its predicted magnitude in the pure Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek framework, the so-called 'missing trade' mystery. Authors wonder if this problem has been there from the beginning: that is, authors ask if the Heckscher-Ohlin theory was so much at odds with reality at its time of conception. Authors apply contemporary tests to historical data, focusing on the major trading zone that inspired the factor abundance theory, the Old and New Worlds of the pre-1914 'Greater Atlantic' economy. This places autor's analysis in a very different context than contemporary studies: an era with lower trade barriers, higher transport costs, a more skewed global distribution of the relevant factors (especially land), and comparably large productivity divergence. These conditions might seem more favorable to the theory, but the results are still very poor.
Опубликовано на портале: 24-12-2003Douglas A. Irwin, Nina Pavcnik NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. w8648.
This paper examines international competition in the commercial aircraft industry. We estimate a discrete choice, differentiated products demand system for wide-body aircraft and examine the Airbus-Boeing rivalry under various assumptions on firm conduct. We then use this structure to evaluate two trade disputes between the United States and European Union. Our results suggest that the aircraft prices increased by about 3 percent after the 1992 U.S. -- E.U. agreement on trade in civil aircraft that limits subsidies. This price hike is consistent with a 7.5 percent increase in firms' marginal costs after the subsidy cuts. We also simulate the impact of the future entry of the Airbus A-380 super-jumbo aircraft on the demand for other wide-bodied aircraft, notably the Boeing 747. We find that the A-380 could reduce the market share of the 747 by up to 14 percent in the long range wide-body market segment (depending upon the discounts offered on the A-380), but would reduce the market for Airbus's existing wide-bodies by an even greater margin.
Borders, Trade and Welfare [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003James Anderson, Eric van Wincoop NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. w8515.
International economic integration yields large potential welfare effects, even in a static constant returns competitive world economy. Our method is novel. The effect of border barriers on trade flows is often inferred from gravity models. But their rather atheoretic structure precludes welfare analysis. Computable general equilibrium models are designed for tight welfare analysis, but lack econometric foundation. Our method combines these approaches. Gravity models based on Anderson's (1979) interpretation are full general equilibrium models of a special simple sort. In Anderson and van Wincoop (NBER WP 8079, 2001) we develop and estimate this structure, then calculate the comparative static effects on trade flows of border barriers. In this paper we further deploy the model to explore the comparative statics of welfare with respect to borders, to currency unions and to NAFTA. Our NAFTA exercise does a much better job of replicating the actual trade flow changes than do computable general equilibrium models. An interesting implication is that terms of trade changes are very important, even for small' countries such as Mexico.
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003Reuven Glick, Andrew K. Rose NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. w8396.
Does leaving a currency union reduce international trade? We answer this question using a large annual panel data set covering 217 countries from 1948 through 1997. During this sample a large number of countries left currency unions; they experienced economically and statistically significant declines in bilateral trade, after accounting for other factors. Assuming symmetry, we estimate that a pair of countries that starts to use a common currency experiences a doubling in bilateral trade.
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003Donald R. Davis, David E. Weinstein NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. w8516.
The dominant paradigm of world trade patterns posits two principal features. Trade between North and South arises due to traditional comparative advantage, largely determined by differences in endowment patterns. Trade within the North, much of it intra-industry trade, is based on economies of scale and product differentiation. The paradigm specifically denies an important role for endowment differences in determining North-North trade. This paper provides the first sound empirical examination of this question. We demonstrate that trade in factor services among countries of the North is systematically related to endowment differences and large in economic magnitude. Intra-industry trade, rather than being a puzzle for a factor endowments theory, is instead the conduit for a great deal of this factor service trade.
Do Rich and Poor Countries Specialize in a Different Mix of Goods? Evidence from Product-Level US Trade Data [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003Peter K. Schott NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. w8492.
Unit values of US imports at the product level reveal a substantial degree of vertical product differentiation among countries exporting to the US. This specialization is not apparent by looking solely at trade flows. Two trends stand out. First, the portion of US import products originating in either rich or poor countries exclusively has fallen dramatically as US trade barriers have fallen, from 41% in 1972 to 17% in 1994. Indeed, by 1994, nearly three quarters the products imported into the US were sourced simultaneously from rich and poor countries. Second, within-product unit value dispersion is positively and significantly correlated with source country income: men's shirts imported from Japan in 1994, for example, are about thirty times as expensive as shirts originating in the Philippines. These unit value premia, and their increase over time, are consistent with the factor proportions framework but convey a stark warning: industry trade flow data alone are too coarse to meet the assumptions underlying most tests of trade theory.
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003James R. Markusen, Keith E. Maskus NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. w8334.
Beginning in the early 1980s, theoretical analyses have incorporated the multinational firm into the microeconomic, general-equilibrium theory of international trade. Recent advances indicate how vertical and horizontal multinationals arise endogenously as determined by country characteristics, including relative size and relative endowment differences, and trade and investment costs. Results also characterize the relationship between foreign affiliate production and international trade in goods and services. In this paper, we survey some of this recent work, and note the testable predictions generated in the theory. In the second part of the paper, we examine empirical results that relate foreign affiliate production to country characteristics and trade/investment cost factors. We also review findings from analyses of the pattern of substitutability or complementarity between trade and foreign production.
International Technology Diffusion [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 24-12-2003Wolfgang Keller NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. w8573.
I discuss the concept and empirical importance of international technology diffusion from the point of view of recent work on endogenous technological change. In this literature, technology is viewed as technological knowledge. I first review the major concepts, and how international technology diffusion relates to other factors affecting economic growth in open economies. The following main section of the paper provides a review of recent empirical results on (i) basic results in international technology diffusion; (ii) the importance of specific channels of diffusion, in particular trade and foreign direct investment; (iii) the spatial distribution of technological knowledge, and (iv) other issues.
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003Sanghamitra Das, James R. Tybout, Mark J. Roberts NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. No. 8629.
As the exchange rate, foreign demand, production costs and export promotion policies evolve, manufacturing firms are continually faced with two issues: Whether to be an exporter, and if so, how much to export. Authors develop a dynamic structural model of export supply that characterizes these two decisions and estimate the model using plant-level panel data on Colombian chemical producers. The model embodies uncertainty, plant-level heterogeneity in export profits, and sunk entry costs for plants breaking into foreign markets. Author's estimates, and the simulation exercises that they support, yield several implications. First, entry costs are typically large, but vary greatly across producers. Second, there is substantial cross-plant heterogeneity in gross expected export profit streams. Third, these large entry costs make expectations about future exporting conditions important for many producers, so changes in the exchange rate regime that are credible induce much more entry than those that are not. Fourth, however, most of the entry and exit takes place among marginal exporters who contribute little to aggregate export revenues. Finally, subsidies on export earnings have a much larger impact on export revenues (per dollar spent) than subsidies that reduce the entry costs faced by new exporters.
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003James R. Tybout NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. w8418.
By relaxing the assumption of perfect competition, the 'new' trade theory has generated a rich body of predictions concerning the effects of commercial policy on price-cost mark-ups, firm sizes, exports, productivity and profitability among domestic producers. This paper critically assesses the plant- and firm-level evidence on these linkages. Several robust findings are identified. First, mark-ups generally fall with import competition, but it is not clear whether this phenomenon reflect the elimination of market power or the creation of negative economic profits. Second, import-competing firms cut back their production levels when foreign competition intensifies, at least in the short run. This suggests that sunk entry or exit costs are important in most sectors. Third, trade rationalizes production in the sense that markets for the most efficient plants are expanded, but large import-competing firms tend to simultaneously contract. Fourth exposure to foreign competition often improves intra-plant efficiency. Fifth, firms that engage in international activities tend to be larger, more productive, and supply higher quality products. However the literature is mixed on whether international activities cause these characteristics or vice versa. Finally, the short-run and long-run effects of commercial policy on exports and market structure can be quite different. Both types of response depend upon initial conditions, sunk entry costs, and the extent of firm heterogeneity.
Опубликовано на портале: 24-12-2003James Harrigan NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. w8675.
The core subjects of trade theory are the pattern and volume of trade: which goods are traded by which countries, and how much of those goods are traded. The first part of the paper discusses evidence on comparative advantage, with an emphasis on carefully connecting theory models to data analyses. The second part of the chapter first considers the theoretical foundations of the gravity model, and then reviews the small number of papers that have tried to test, rather than simply use, the implications of gravity. Both parts of the paper yield the same conclusion: we are still in the very early stages of empirically understanding specialization and the volume of trade, but the work that has been done can serve as a starting point for further research.
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003Mattias Ganslandt, James R. Markusen NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. . w8346.
Standards and technical regulations which govern the admissibility of imported goods into an economy raise costs of exporters entering new markets, and may have a particularly high impact on firms seeking to export from developing countries. Yet standards may also have a positive side, such as certifying product quality and safety for the consumer. This paper suggests approaches to modeling standards and technical regulations, with a particular concern that these approaches are at least potentially implementable in an applied general-equilibrium model with real data.
Опубликовано на портале: 24-12-2003Douglas A. Irwin NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. w8689.
The United States produced about 80 percent of the world's cotton in the decades prior to the Civil War. How much monopoly power did the United States possess in the world cotton market and what would have been the effect of an optimal export tax? This paper estimates the elasticity of foreign demand for U.S. cotton exports and uses the elasticity in a simple partial equilibrium model to calculate the optimal export tax and its effect on prices, trade, and welfare. The results indicate that the export demand elasticity for U.S. cotton was about -1.7 and that the optimal export tax of about 50 percent would have raised U.S. welfare by about $6 million, about 0.1 percent of U.S. GDP or about 0.5 percent of the South's GDP.
Опубликовано на портале: 24-12-2003Douglas A. Irwin NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. w8692.
The United States came close to complete autarky in 1808 as a result of a self-imposed embargo on international shipping from December 1807 to March 1809. Monthly prices of exported and imported goods reveal the embargo's striking effect on commodity markets and allow a calculation of its welfare effects. A simple general equilibrium calculation suggests that the embargo cost about 8 percent of America's 1807 GNP, at a time when the trade share was about 13 percent (domestic exports and shipping earnings). The welfare cost was lower than the trade share because the embargo did not completely eliminate trade and because domestic producers successfully shifted production toward previously imported manufactured goods.
Опубликовано на портале: 24-12-2003Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg, Nina Pavcnik NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. w8575.
Starting in 1985, Colombia experienced gradual trade liberalization that culminated in the drastic tariff reductions of 1990-91. This paper exploits these trade reforms to investigate the relationship between protection and wages. The focus of the analysis is on relative wages, defined as industry wage premiums relative to the economy-wide average wage. Using the June waves of the Colombian National Household Survey, we first compute wage premiums for the period 1984-98, adjusting for a series of worker characteristics, job and firm attributes, and informality. We find that industry wage premiums in Colombia exhibit remarkably less persistence over time than U.S. wage premiums. Similarly, measures of trade protection are less correlated over time than in the U.S. data, indicating that as a result of trade liberalization the structure of protection has changed. Regressions of wage premiums on tariffs, without industry fixed effects, produce a negative relationship between protection and wages; workers in protected sectors earn less than workers with similar observable characteristics in unprotected sectors. With fixed effects the results are reversed: Trade protection is found to increase relative wages. The effect is economically significant: Elimination of tariffs in an industry with an average level of protection in 1984 would lead to a 4% wage decline in this industry. For the most protected industries the effect increases to 7.3%. We also find that - in contrast to the U.S. - sectors with high import penetration in Colombia pay higher wages; nevertheless, regressions with industry fixed effects indicate that an increase of imports in a particular sector is associated with lower wages. The differences between the results with and without fixed effects are indicative of the importance of (time-invariant) political economy factors as determinants of protection. Further issues concerning the effects of trade liberalization, such as the relevance of time-variant political economy factors, the importance of employment guarantees, liberalization induced productivity changes, and the interplay of trade and labor reforms, will be investigated in a sequel paper.