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Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003Andrew K. Rose, Mark M. Spiegel NBER Working Paper Series. 2002. w9285.
One reason why countries service their external debts is the fear that default might lead to shrinkage of international trade. If so, then creditors should systematically lend more to countries with which they share closer trade links. Autors develop a simple theoretical model to capture this intuition, then test and corroborate this idea.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003Philippe Bacchetta, Eric van Wincoop NBER Working Paper Series. 2002. w9039.
Nominal rigidities due to menu costs have become a standard element in closed economy macroeconomic modeling. The "New Open Economy Macroeconomics" literature has investigated the implications of nominal rigidities in an open economy context and found that the currency in which prices are set has significant implications for exchange rate pass-through to import prices, the level of trade and net capital flows, and optimal monetary and exchange rate policy. While the literature has exogenously assumed in which currencies goods are priced, in this paper autors solve for the equilibrium optimal pricing strategies of firms. Autors find that the higher the market share of an exporting country in an industry, and the more differentiated its goods, the more likely its exporters will price in the exporter's currency. Country size and the cyclicality of real wages play a role as well, but are empirically less important. Autors also show that when a set of countries forms a monetary union, the new currency is likely to be used more extensively in trade than the sum of the currencies it replaces.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003Huiwen Lai, Daniel Trefler NBER Working Paper Series. 2002. w9169.
The difficulty of incorporating general equilibrium price effects into econometric estimating equations has deterred most researchers from econometrically estimating the welfare gains from trade liberalization. Using a paired-down CES monopolistic competition example, autors show that this difficulty has been greatly exaggerated. Along the way, we estimate indeed precisely estimate large welfare gains from trade liberalization as measured by compensating variation. Unlike calibration methods, econometric methods allow researchers to isolate the violence done by the model to the data. Autors find that the CES monopolistic competition model horribly mis-specifies behavioural price elasticities and general equilibrium price feedbacks. The model as conceived is therefore of limited value for analysing the effects of trade liberalization. Autors report a number of specification issues that should point the way to better theoretical modeling.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003Robert E. Lipsey, Zadia Feliciano NBER Working Paper Series. 2002. w9122.
Using U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis data for individual foreign acquisitions and new establishments in the U.S from 1988 to 1998, and aggregate data for 1980 to 1998, autors find that acquisitions and establishments of new firms tend to occur in periods of high U.S. growth and take place mainly in industries in which the investing country has some comparative advantage in exporting. New establishments are largely in industries of U.S. comparative disadvantage, and the relation of U.S. comparative advantage to takeovers is also negative, but never significant. High U.S. stock prices, industry profitability, and industry growth discourage takeovers. High U.S interest rates and high investing country growth and currency values encourage takeovers. Direct investments in acquisitions and new establishments thus tend to flow in the same direction as trade. They originate in countries with comparative advantages in particular industries and flow to industries of U.S. comparative disadvantage.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003Kevin O'Rourke, Jeffrey G. Williamson NBER Working Paper Series. 2002. w8955.
A recent endogenous growth literature has focused on the transition from a Malthusian world where real wages were linked to factor endowments, to one where modern growth has broken that link. In this paper autor presents evidence on another, related phenomenon: the dramatic reversal in distributional trends - from a steep secular fall to a steep secular rise in wage-land rent ratios - which occurred some time early in the 19th century. What explains this reversal? While it may seem logical to locate the causes in the Industrial Revolutionary forces emphasized by endogenous growth theorists, we provide evidence that something else mattered just as much: the opening up of the European economy to international trade.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003Alan M. Taylor NBER Working Paper Series. 2002. w9326.
Recent research in international economic history has opened up new lines of enquiry on the origins of globalization, as well as its causes and consequences. Such findings have the potential to inform contemporary debates and this paper considers what lessons this body of historical work has for our current understanding of the linkages between trade and development.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003C. Fritz Foley, Mihir A. Desai, James R. Hines NBER Working Paper Series. 2002. w9115.
This paper analyzes the determinants of partial ownership of the foreign affiliates of U.S. multinational firms and, in particular, why partial ownership has declined markedly over the last 20 years. The evidence indicates that whole ownership is most common when firms coordinate integrated production activities across different locations, transfer technology, and benefit from worldwide tax planning. Since operations and ownership levels are jointly determined, it is necessary to use the liberalization of ownership restrictions by host countries and the imposition of joint venture tax penalties in the U.S. Tax Reform Act of 1986 as instruments for ownership levels in order to identify these effects. Firms responded to these regulatory and tax changes by expanding the volume of their intrafirm trade as well as the extent of whole ownership; four percent greater subsequent sole ownership of affiliates is associated with three percent higher intrafirm trade volumes. The implied complementarity of whole ownership and intrafirm trade suggests that reduced costs of coordinating global operations, together with regulatory and tax changes, gave rise to the sharply declining propensity of American firms to organize their foreign operations as joint ventures over the last two decades. The forces of globalization appear to have increased the desire of multinationals to structure many transactions inside firms rather than through exchanges involving other parties.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003Douglas A. Irwin NBER Working Paper Series. 2002. w8739.
Recent research has documented a positive relationship between tariffs and growth in the late nineteenth century. Such a correlation does not establish a causal relationship between tariffs and growth, but it is tempting to view the correlation as constituting evidence that protectionist or inward-oriented trade strategies were successful during this period. This paper argues that such a conclusion is unwarranted and that the tariff-growth correlation should be interpreted with care. First, several individual country experiences in the late nineteenth century are not consistent with the view that import substitution promoted growth. For example, the two most rapidly expanding, high tariff countries of the period Argentina and Canada grew because capital imports helped stimulate export-led growth in agricultural staples products, not because of protectionist trade policies. Second, most land-abundant countries (such as Argentina and Canada) imposed high tariffs to raise government revenue, and revenue tariffs have a different structure than protective tariffs. The fact that labor-scarce, land-abundant countries had a high potential for growth and also tended to impose high revenue-generating tariffs confounds the inference that high tariffs were responsible for their strong economic performance during this period.
Testing Trade Theory in Ohlin's Time [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003Antoni Estevadeordal, Alan M. Taylor NBER Working Paper Series. 2002. w8842.
An empirical tradition in international trade seeks to establish whether the predictions of factor abundance theory match present-day data. In the analysis of goods trade and factor endowments, mildly encouraging results were found by Leamer et al. But ever since the appearance of Leontief's paradox, the measured factor content of trade has always been found to be far smaller than its predicted magnitude in the Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek framework, the so-called 'missing trade' mystery. Autors wonder if this problem was there in the theory from the beginning. This seems like a fairer test of its creators' original enterprise. Autors apply contemporary tests to historical data on goods and factor trade from Ohlin's time. Autor's analysis is set in a very different context than contemporary studies - an era with lower trade barriers, higher transport costs, a more skewed global distribution of the relevant factors (especially land), and comparably large productivity divergence. Autors find some support for the theory, but also encounter common problems. Autor's work thus complements the tests applied to today's data and informs our search for improved models of trade.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003Marc J. Melitz NBER Working Paper Series. 2002. w8881.
This paper builds a dynamic industry model with heterogeneous firms that explains why international trade induces reallocations of resources among firms in an industry. The paper shows how the exposure to trade will induce only the more productive firms to enter the export market (while some less productive firms continue to produce only for the domestic market) and will simultaneously force the least productive firms to exit. It then shows how further increases in the industry's exposure to trade lead to additional inter-firm reallocations towards more productive firms. These phenomena have been empirically documented but can not be explained by current general equilibrium trade models, because they rely on a representative firm framework. The paper also shows how the aggregate industry productivity growth generated by the reallocations contributes to a welfare gain, thus highlighting a benefit from trade that has not been examined theoretically before. The paper adapts Hopenhayn's (1992a) dynamic industry model to monopolistic competition in a general equilibrium setting. In so doing, the paper provides an extension of Krugman's (1980) trade model that incorporates firm level productivity differences. Firms with different productivity levels coexist in an industry because each firm faces initial uncertainty concerning its productivity before making an irreversible investment to enter the industry. Entry into the export market is also costly, but the firm's decision to export occurs after it gains knowledge of its productivity.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003Peter J. Klenow, David Hummels NBER Working Paper Series. 2002. w8712.
Not surprisingly, big countries trade more than small countries. In this paper autors use data on shipments by 110 exporters to 59 importers in 5,000 product categories to ask: how? Do big countries trade larger quantities of a common set of goods (the intensive margin), a larger set of goods (the extensive margin), or higher quality goods? Autors find that the extensive margin accounts for two-thirds of the greater exports of larger economies, and one-third of the greater imports of larger economies. Richer countries export more units at higher prices. These calculations are useful for distinguishing features of trade models that correspond more or less well to the data. Models with Armington national product differentiation do not feature the extensive margin, and wrongly predict that greater output will be accompanied by worse terms of trade. "Krugman" style models with firm level product differentation fare better, but must be modified to include quality differentiation and fixed costs of trading to match all of the facts. Estimates based on these modifications imply that differences in goods' quality could be the proximate cause of about 25% of country differences in real income per worker.
Trade Integration and Risk Sharing [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003Aart Kraay, Jaume Ventura NBER Working Paper Series. 2002. w8804.
What are the effects of increased trade in goods and services on the trade balance? Autors study the effects of reducing transport costs in a Ricardian model with complete asset markets. Trade integration has three effects on the structure of the economy: a reduction in the home bias in consumption, an increase in the degree of international competition in goods markets, and a reduction in real exchange rate volatility. The reduction in the home bias increases the volatility of the trade balance regardless of the source of shocks. Except for the case where supply shocks lead to counter-cyclical trade balances, (i) the increase in international competition also increases the volatility of the trade balance; and (ii) the reduction in real exchange rate volatility increases the volatility of the trade balance if risk aversion is low but lowers it if risk aversion is high. The opposite applies when supply shocks lead to counter-cyclical trade balances. Autors calibrate the model to U.S. data and provide a quantitative assessment of the effects of increased trade in services on the trade balance.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003Kala Krishna, Abhiroop Mukhopadhyay, Cemile Yavas NBER Working Paper Series. 2002. w9086.
This paper explains the differential impacts of trade on countries in terms of institutional differences which result in factor market distortions. Autors modify the Ricardian, Specific Factor and Hecksher Ohlin models of trade to capture these. Trade has both terms of trade effects and output effects. Both work to raise welfare in an undistorted economy. In a distorted economy, price effects work to improve welfare, while output effects work to reduce it. Large distorted countries are more likely to lose from trade as beneficial price effects are lower. In addition the greater the substitutability between goods, the more likely it is that welfare rises through trade.