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Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003Karolina Ekholm, Rikard Forslid, James R. Markusen NBER Working Paper Series. 2003. w9517.
Export-platform foreign direct investment in which the affiliate's output is (largely) sold in third markets rather than in the parent or host markets has received empirical attention recently, but little theoretical analysis. This paper is an attempt to make some sense of this phenomenon. Autors use a three-region model in which there are two identical, large, high-cost economies and a small low-cost economy. Pure export-platform production arises in a symmetric case, when a firm in each of the high-cost economies has a plant at home, and a plant in the low-cost country (the South) to serve the other high-cost country. This occurs when trade costs for intermediates (components) and plant-fixed costs are moderate and the South has a moderate cost advantage in assembly. Another interesting and empirically important case arises when there is trade liberalization between one of the high-cost countries and the small, low-cost country. The outside high-cost country may wish to build a branch plant inside the free trade area due to market size, but chooses the low-cost country on the basis of cost. Or a firm headquartered in the large country inside the free-trade area might build a single plant in its low-wage partner in order to serve their joint free-trade area and to export to the outside high-cost country.
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003Pol Antras NBER Working Paper Series. 2003. w9740.
Roughly one-third of world trade is intrafirm trade. This paper starts by unveiling two systematic patterns in the volume of intrafirm trade. In a panel of industries, the share of intrafirm imports in total U.S. imports is significantly higher, the higher the capital intensity of the exporting industry. In a cross-section of countries U.S. imports is significantly higher, the higher the capital-labor ratio of the exporting country. I then show that these patterns can be rationalized in a theoretical framework that combines a Grossman-Hart-Moore view of the firm with a Helpman-Krugman view of international trade. In particular an incomplete-contracting, property-rights model of the boundaries of the firm, which I then incorporate into a standard trade model with imperfect competition and product differentiation. The model pins down the boundaries of multinational firms as well as the international location of production, and it is shown to predict the patterns of intrafirm trade identified above. Econometric evidence reveals that the model is consistent with other qualitative and quantitative features of the data.
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003Kevin O'Rourke NBER Working Paper Series. 2003. w9872.
The aim of the paper is to see whether individuals' attitudes towards globalization are consistent with the predictions of Heckscher-Ohlin theory. The theory predicts that the impact of being skilled or unskilled on attitudes towards trade and immigration should depend on a country's skill endowments, with the skilled being less anti-trade and anti-immigration in more skill-abundant countries (here taken to be richer countries) than in more unskilled-labour-abundant countries (here taken to be poorer countries). These predictions are confirmed, using survey data for 24 countries. Being high-skilled is associated with more pro-globalization attitudes in rich countries; while in some of the very poorest countries in the sample being high-skilled has a negative (if statistically insignificant) impact on pro-globalization sentiment. More generally, an interaction term between skills and GDP per capita has a negative impact in regressions explaining anti-globalization sentiment. Furthermore, individuals view protectionism and anti-immigrant policies as complements rather than as substitutes, which is what simple Heckscher-Ohlin theory predicts.
On the Duration of Trade [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003Tibor Besedes, Thomas J. Prusa NBER Working Paper Series. 2003. w9936.
This paper employs survival analysis to study the duration of US imports. Authors find that the median duration of exporting a product to the US is very short, on the order to two to four years. Author's results also indicate that there is negative duration dependence meaning that if a country is able to survive in the exporting market for the first few years it will face a very small probability of failure and will export the product for a long period of time. This result holds across countries and industries. Authors find that our results are not only robust to aggregation but are strengthened by aggregation. That is, as authors aggregate from product level trade data to SITC industry level trade data the estimated survival increases. They rank countries by their survival experience and show that our rankings are strongly correlated with the rankings in Feenstra and Rose (2002), implying that product cycle followers also experience particularly short duration.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003Robert E. Baldwin NBER Working Paper Series. 2003. w9578.
There is still disagreement among economists concerning how a country's international economic policies and its rate of economic growth interact, despite a number of multi-country case studies utilizing comparable analytical frameworks, numerous econometric studies using large cross-country data sets, and important theoretical advances in growth theory. This paper briefly surveys this literature and points out the main reasons for the disagreements. Particular attention is given to an important study by Francisco Rodriguez and Dani Rodrik (2001) criticizing the conclusion of a number of recent multi-country statistical studies that openness is associated with higher growth rates. Rodriguez and Rodrik show that openness simply in the sense of liberal trade policies seems to be no guarantee of faster growth. However, the conclusion of most researchers involved in either country studies or multi-country statistical tests that lower trade barriers in combination with a stable and non-discriminatory exchange-rate system, prudent monetary and fiscal policies and corruption-free administration of economic policies promote economic growth still seems to remain valid.
The Effects of Multinational Production on Wages and Working Conditions in Developing Countries [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003Drusilla K. Brown, Alan V. Deardorff, Robert M. Stern NBER Working Paper Series. 2003. w9669.
This paper assesses the evidence regarding the effects of multinational production on wages and working conditions in developing countries. It is motivated by recent controversies concerning whether multinational firms in developing countries exploit workers by paying low wages and subjecting them to substandard conditions. Authors first address efforts of activist groups, universities, and colleges in the Anti-Sweatshop' Campaign in the United States, the social accountability of multinational firms, and the role of such international institutions as the International Labor Organization and World Trade Organization in dealing with labor standards and trade. Authors then consider conceptually how foreign direct investment might affect host-country wages. Available theories yield ambiguous predictions, leaving the effects to be examined empirically. Authors therefore, finally, review empirical evidence on multinational firm wages in developing countries, and the relationship between foreign direct investment and labor rights. This evidence indicates that multinational firms routinely provide higher wages and better working conditions than their local counterparts, and they are typically not attracted preferentially to countries with weak labor standards.
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003Christopher Blattman, Jason Hwang, Jeffrey G. Williamson NBER Working Paper Series. 2003. w9940.
The contending fundamental determinants of growth - institutions, geography and culture - exhibit far more persistence than do the growth rates they are supposed to explain. So, what exogenous shocks might account for the variance around those persistent fundamentals? The terms of trade seems to be one good place to look. Using a panel data base for 35 countries, this paper estimates the impact of terms of trade volatility and secular change between 1870 and 1938. Authors find that volatility was much more important than secular change. Additionally, both effects were asymmetric between core and periphery, findings that speak directly to the terms of trade debates that have raged since Prebisch and Singer wrote more than 50 years ago.
Trade, Growth and the Environment [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003Brian R. Copeland, M. Scott Taylor NBER Working Paper Series. 2003. w9823.
For the last ten years environmentalists and the trade policy community have engaged in a heated debate over the environmental consequences of liberalized trade. The debate was originally fueled by negotiations over the North American Free Trade Agreement and the Uruguay round of GATT negotiations, both of which occurred at a time when concerns over global warming, species extinction and industrial pollution were rising. Recently it has been intensified by the creation of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and proposals for future rounds of trade negotiations. The debate has often been unproductive. It has been hampered by the lack of a common language and also suffered from little recourse to economic theory and empirical evidence. The purpose of this essay is set out what we currently know about the environmental consequences of economic growth and international trade. We critically review both theory and empirical work to answer three basic questions. What do we know about the relationship between international trade, economic growth and the environment? How can this evidence help us evaluate ongoing policy debates? Where do we go from here?
Trade Policy and Industrial Sector Responses: Using Evolutionary Models to Interpret the Evidence [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003Erkan Erdem, James R. Tybout NBER Working Paper Series. 2003. w9947.
Firm- and plant-level empirical studies typically find that trade liberalization squeezes price-cost margins among import-competing firms, that this heightened competitive pressure induces productivity gains among these same firms, and that further efficiency gains come from market share reallocations. Using a computable industrial evolution model to simulate the dynamic effects of import competition, we demonstrate what types of managerial behavior, long-term transition paths and welfare effects are consistent with this set of stylized facts.
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003Richard B. Freeman NBER Working Paper Series. 2003. w10000.
The rules governing trade and capital flows have been at the center of controversy as globalization has proceeded. One reason is the belief that trade and capital flows have massive effects on the labor market -either positive, per the claims of international financial institutions and free trade enthusiasts, or negative, per the ubiquitous protestors at WTO, IMF, and World Bank meetings demanding global labor standards. Comparing the claims made in this debate with the outcomes of trade agreements, this paper finds that the debate has exaggerated the effects of trade on economies and the labor market. Changes in trade policy have had modest impacts on labour market. Other aspects of globalization -immigration, capital flows, and technology transfer -- have greater impacts, with volatile capital flows creating great risk for the well-being of workers. As for labor standards, global standards do not threaten the comparative advantage of developing countries nor do poor labor standards create a race to the bottom.
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003Gordon H. Hanson, Raymond J. Mataloni, Matthew J. Slaughter NBER Working Paper Series. 2003. w9723.
In recent decades, growth of overall world trade has been driven in large part by the rapid growth of trade in intermediate inputs. Much of this input trade involves multinational firms locating input processing in their foreign affiliates, thereby creating global vertical production networks. In this paper, authors use firm-level data on U.S. multinationals to examine trade in intermediate inputs for further processing between parent firms and their foreign affiliates. Authors estimate affiliate demand for imported inputs as a function of host-country and industry trade costs, factor prices, and other variables. Among author's main findings are that demand for imported inputs is higher when affiliates face lower trade costs, lower wages for less-skilled labor (both in absolute terms and relative to wages for more-skilled labor), and lower corporate income taxes. These results contrast with many findings in previous research.