Всего статей в данном разделе : 136
Do Rich and Poor Countries Specialize in a Different Mix of Goods? Evidence from Product-Level US Trade Data [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003Peter K. Schott NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. w8492.
Unit values of US imports at the product level reveal a substantial degree of vertical product differentiation among countries exporting to the US. This specialization is not apparent by looking solely at trade flows. Two trends stand out. First, the portion of US import products originating in either rich or poor countries exclusively has fallen dramatically as US trade barriers have fallen, from 41% in 1972 to 17% in 1994. Indeed, by 1994, nearly three quarters the products imported into the US were sourced simultaneously from rich and poor countries. Second, within-product unit value dispersion is positively and significantly correlated with source country income: men's shirts imported from Japan in 1994, for example, are about thirty times as expensive as shirts originating in the Philippines. These unit value premia, and their increase over time, are consistent with the factor proportions framework but convey a stark warning: industry trade flow data alone are too coarse to meet the assumptions underlying most tests of trade theory.
Опубликовано на портале: 16-12-2003Jeffrey J. Reimer World Bank Policy Research Working Papers. 2002. No. 2790.
As a new round of World Trade Organization negotiations is being launched with greater emphasis on developing country participation, a body of literature is emerging which quantifies how international trade affects the poor in developing countries. In this survey of the literature, Reimer summarizes and classifies 35 trade and poverty studies into four methodological categories: cross-country regression, partial-equilibrium and cost-of-living analysis, general-equilibrium simulation, and micro-macro synthesis. These categories include a broad range of methodologies in current use. The continuum of approaches is bounded on one end by econometric analysis of household expenditure data, which is the traditional domain of poverty specialists, and sometimes labeled the “bottom-up” approach. On the other end of the continuum are computable general equilibrium models based on national accounts data, or what might be called the “top-down” approach. Another feature of several recent trade and poverty studies—and one of the primary conclusions to emerge from the October 2000 “Conference on Poverty and the International Economy” sponsored by Globkom and the World Bank—is the recognition that factor markets are perhaps the most important link between trade and poverty, since households tend to be much more specialized in income than they are in consumption. Meanwhile, survey data on the income sources of developing-country households has become increasingly available. As a result, this survey gives particular emphasis to the means by which studies address factor market links between trade and poverty. The general conclusion of Reimer’s survey is that any analysis of trade and poverty needs to be informed by both the bottom-up and top-down perspectives. Indeed, recent “two-step” micro-macro studies sequentially link these two types of frameworks, such that general equilibrium mechanisms are incorporated along with detailed household survey information. Another methodology in a similar spirit and also increasingly used involves incorporating large numbers of surveyed households into a general-equilibrium simulation model. Although most of these studies have so far been limited to a single region, these approaches can be readily adapted for multi-region modeling so that trade and poverty comparisons can be made across countries within a consistent framework.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003Karolina Ekholm, Rikard Forslid, James R. Markusen NBER Working Paper Series. 2003. w9517.
Export-platform foreign direct investment in which the affiliate's output is (largely) sold in third markets rather than in the parent or host markets has received empirical attention recently, but little theoretical analysis. This paper is an attempt to make some sense of this phenomenon. Autors use a three-region model in which there are two identical, large, high-cost economies and a small low-cost economy. Pure export-platform production arises in a symmetric case, when a firm in each of the high-cost economies has a plant at home, and a plant in the low-cost country (the South) to serve the other high-cost country. This occurs when trade costs for intermediates (components) and plant-fixed costs are moderate and the South has a moderate cost advantage in assembly. Another interesting and empirically important case arises when there is trade liberalization between one of the high-cost countries and the small, low-cost country. The outside high-cost country may wish to build a branch plant inside the free trade area due to market size, but chooses the low-cost country on the basis of cost. Or a firm headquartered in the large country inside the free-trade area might build a single plant in its low-wage partner in order to serve their joint free-trade area and to export to the outside high-cost country.
Export Profiles of Small Landlocked Countries: A Case Study Focusing on their Implications for Lesotho [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 16-12-2003Alexander Yeats, Francis Ng World Bank Policy Research Working Papers. 2003. No. 3085.
World Bank demographic and country characteristic statistics identify 16 small landlocked countries that are similar to Lesotho. Ng and Yeats attempt to determine what useful policy information can be derived from the recent trade performance of these “comparators.” Among questions they pose are whether the trade profiles of the comparators suggest potentially promising export ventures for Lesotho, do they indicate directions for a geographic diversification of trade, or do they suggest products in which Lesotho might acquire a comparative advantage. The authors also use U.S. partner country statistics to evaluate Lesotho’s export performance in this major market. <> The U.S. data indicate Lesotho lost competitive export shares for about three-quarters of its major clothing products during the late 1990s. The data show these losses were primarily to the North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) countries in the Caribbean. Lesotho was competing on basically equal terms and did not fare well. But it is generally held that the most efficient clothing exporters are in the Far East and not Latin America. Lesotho’s difficulties in competing with the latter have worrisome implications for its ability to compete with East Asian exporters when the Multifiber Arrangement is phased out. The comparative advantage profiles of the landlocked comparator countries suggest Lesotho’s options for a greatly needed export diversification may be wider than is assumed. One or more of the comparator countries developed a comparative advantage in 110 four-digit SITC (non-clothing) manufactures which are generally labor-intensive in production. Many of these goods should also be suitable for production and export by Lesotho. International production sharing often involves the importation and further assembly of components in developing countries. This activity can significantly broaden the range of new products in which a country can diversify. Statistics show many landlocked comparator countries have moved into component assembly operations, and it appears this activity could contribute to Lesotho’s export diversification and industrialization. But the quality problems associated with Lesotho’s trade statistics makes it impossible to determine the extent to which local production sharing is occurring. A special effort is needed to tabulate reliable statistics on Lesotho’s current involvement in this activity. Finally, the authors attempt to determine how the commercial policy environment in Lesotho compares with that in other countries. Policymakers previously had difficulty in addressing this issue, but several recent efforts to compile comprehensive cross-country indices of the quality of governance and commercial policies now provide relevant information. These statistics suggest domestic commercial policies make Lesotho relatively less attractive to foreign investment than many other developing countries. Less than 20 percent of all Latin American countries have a domestic commercial environment judged to be inferior to that in Lesotho, while the corresponding share for East Asia is under 30 percent. Overall, almost 70 percent of all developing countries appear to pursue commercial policies that make them as, or more, attractive to foreign investment than Lesotho.
Опубликовано на портале: 16-12-2003Thorsten Beck World Bank Policy Research Working Papers. 2000. No. 2609.
Does financial development translate into a comparative advantage in industries that use more external finance? Yes, it does. Using industry-level data on firms’ dependence on external finance—data for 36 industries and 56 countries—Beck shows that countries with better developed financial systems have higher export shares and trade balances in industries that use more external finance. These results are robust to the use of alternative measures of external dependence and financial development and are not attributable to reverse causality or simultaneity bias.
Опубликовано на портале: 16-12-2003Thorsten Beck World Bank Policy Research Working Papers. 2001. No. 2608.
Economies with better developed financial sectors have a comparative advantage in manufacturing industries. A two-sector model shows the sector with large scale economies profiting more than the other from a well-developed financial sector. In countries with higher levels of financial development, manufactured exports represent a higher share of GDP and of merchandise exports—and those countries have a higher trade balance in manufactured goods. Beck explores a possible link between financial development and trade in manufactures. His theoretical model focuses on the role of financial intermediaries in facilitating large-scale, high-return projects. Results show that economies with better developed financial sectors have a comparative advantage in manufacturing industries. He provides evidence for this hypothesis, first proposed by Kletzer and Bardhan (1987), using a 30-year panel of data for 65 countries. Controlling for country-specific effects and possible reverse causality, he shows that financial development exerts a large causal impact on the level of both exports and the trade balance of manufactured goods.
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003Jiandong Ju, Kala Krishna NBER Working Paper Series. 1998. w6857.
Authors develop a model to study the behavior of firms in a Free Trade Area with Rules of Origin and the consequences of this behavior on the market equilibrium and outcome. Authors show that firms will choose to specialize, and that an FTA with strict ROOs on the intermediate good raises imports and hence improves market access in the final good market reduces imports and hence harms market access in the intermediate good market. More restrictive ROOs on the final good first raise and then lower imports of the final good lower than raise imports of the intermediate good. Their turning point is common so that imports of the final good are maximized and imports of the intermediate good are minimized at a common level of restrictiveness of the rules of origin. Authors show that our model can be reinterpreted to show that more restrictive ROOs on the final good first improves and then harms the fortunes of labor, and to cast light on a particular policy to improve market access. Other problems with a similar structure could also be analyzed using our techniques; authors expect similar results.
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003Pol Antras NBER Working Paper Series. 2003. w9740.
Roughly one-third of world trade is intrafirm trade. This paper starts by unveiling two systematic patterns in the volume of intrafirm trade. In a panel of industries, the share of intrafirm imports in total U.S. imports is significantly higher, the higher the capital intensity of the exporting industry. In a cross-section of countries U.S. imports is significantly higher, the higher the capital-labor ratio of the exporting country. I then show that these patterns can be rationalized in a theoretical framework that combines a Grossman-Hart-Moore view of the firm with a Helpman-Krugman view of international trade. In particular an incomplete-contracting, property-rights model of the boundaries of the firm, which I then incorporate into a standard trade model with imperfect competition and product differentiation. The model pins down the boundaries of multinational firms as well as the international location of production, and it is shown to predict the patterns of intrafirm trade identified above. Econometric evidence reveals that the model is consistent with other qualitative and quantitative features of the data.
Food Protection for Sale [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 25-10-2007Rigoberto A. Lopez, Xenia Matschke University of Connecticut, Department of Economics Working Paper. 2005. No. 2005-13R.
This article tests the Protection for Sale (PFS) model using detailed data from U.S. food processing industries from 1978 to 1992 under alternative import demand specifications. All empirical results support the PFS model predictions and previous empirical work qualitatively. Although welfare weights are very sensitive to import demand specification, a surprising result is that we obtain weights between 2.6 and 3.6 for domestic welfare using import slopes or elasticities derived from domestic demand and supply functions. In contrast, results based on import slopes or elasticities from directly specified import demands (including the Armington model) yield the usual, unrealistically large estimates for the domestic welfare weight. We contend that the latter empirical paradox arises mainly because the explanatory variables tend to be extremely large for industries with low import ratios and/or low estimated elasticities or slopes resulting from relatively volatile import prices. The results with derived import parameters point to a much stronger role of campaign contributions within the PFS model than previously found. They also suggest that the commonly-used Armington estimates may not be appropriate for estimating the PFS model.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003Robert E. Lipsey, Zadia Feliciano NBER Working Paper Series. 2002. w9122.
Using U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis data for individual foreign acquisitions and new establishments in the U.S from 1988 to 1998, and aggregate data for 1980 to 1998, autors find that acquisitions and establishments of new firms tend to occur in periods of high U.S. growth and take place mainly in industries in which the investing country has some comparative advantage in exporting. New establishments are largely in industries of U.S. comparative disadvantage, and the relation of U.S. comparative advantage to takeovers is also negative, but never significant. High U.S. stock prices, industry profitability, and industry growth discourage takeovers. High U.S interest rates and high investing country growth and currency values encourage takeovers. Direct investments in acquisitions and new establishments thus tend to flow in the same direction as trade. They originate in countries with comparative advantages in particular industries and flow to industries of U.S. comparative disadvantage.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003Kevin O'Rourke, Jeffrey G. Williamson NBER Working Paper Series. 2002. w8955.
A recent endogenous growth literature has focused on the transition from a Malthusian world where real wages were linked to factor endowments, to one where modern growth has broken that link. In this paper autor presents evidence on another, related phenomenon: the dramatic reversal in distributional trends - from a steep secular fall to a steep secular rise in wage-land rent ratios - which occurred some time early in the 19th century. What explains this reversal? While it may seem logical to locate the causes in the Industrial Revolutionary forces emphasized by endogenous growth theorists, we provide evidence that something else mattered just as much: the opening up of the European economy to international trade.
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003James R. Markusen, Keith E. Maskus NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. w8334.
Beginning in the early 1980s, theoretical analyses have incorporated the multinational firm into the microeconomic, general-equilibrium theory of international trade. Recent advances indicate how vertical and horizontal multinationals arise endogenously as determined by country characteristics, including relative size and relative endowment differences, and trade and investment costs. Results also characterize the relationship between foreign affiliate production and international trade in goods and services. In this paper, we survey some of this recent work, and note the testable predictions generated in the theory. In the second part of the paper, we examine empirical results that relate foreign affiliate production to country characteristics and trade/investment cost factors. We also review findings from analyses of the pattern of substitutability or complementarity between trade and foreign production.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003Tito Cordella, Isabel Grilo IMF Working Paper Series. 1998. No. 98/48 .
This paper uses a vertical differentiation duopoly framework to analyze firms. relocation decisions when the removal either of trade barriers or of restrictions on capital outflows or inflows (globalization) allows them to serve the domestic market through foreign plants employing cheaper foreign labor. The paper addresses two issues. First, it tries to explain which firms, within a specific industry, have the stronger incentives in relocating their production facilities in low-wage countries. It shows that such incentives are higher for the firm producing the variety that would have a larger market share if the two goods were sold at their marginal cost. Second, it assesses the welfare consequences of the decision of domestic firms to serve the domestic market through foreign plants. More precisely, it compares domestic welfare under autarchy and under globalization. The recognition of the consequences of relocation on unemployment allows to explicitly take into account the associated variations in workers. surplus, when performing the welfare analysis. In this second-best world, when the complete liberalization of trade and capital flows leads to the relocation of the whole industry, autarchy is strictly better, on domestic welfare terms, than globalization. However, when relocation is a dominant strategy for one (and only one) firm, globalization may unambiguously be welfare improving. Finally, and somehow against the common wisdom, the paper shows that the welfare cost of relocation is lower, the lower is the level of the foreign wage.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003Alan M. Taylor NBER Working Paper Series. 2002. w9326.
Recent research in international economic history has opened up new lines of enquiry on the origins of globalization, as well as its causes and consequences. Such findings have the potential to inform contemporary debates and this paper considers what lessons this body of historical work has for our current understanding of the linkages between trade and development.
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003Kevin O'Rourke NBER Working Paper Series. 2003. w9872.
The aim of the paper is to see whether individuals' attitudes towards globalization are consistent with the predictions of Heckscher-Ohlin theory. The theory predicts that the impact of being skilled or unskilled on attitudes towards trade and immigration should depend on a country's skill endowments, with the skilled being less anti-trade and anti-immigration in more skill-abundant countries (here taken to be richer countries) than in more unskilled-labour-abundant countries (here taken to be poorer countries). These predictions are confirmed, using survey data for 24 countries. Being high-skilled is associated with more pro-globalization attitudes in rich countries; while in some of the very poorest countries in the sample being high-skilled has a negative (if statistically insignificant) impact on pro-globalization sentiment. More generally, an interaction term between skills and GDP per capita has a negative impact in regressions explaining anti-globalization sentiment. Furthermore, individuals view protectionism and anti-immigrant policies as complements rather than as substitutes, which is what simple Heckscher-Ohlin theory predicts.