Статьи
Всего статей в данном разделе : 136
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003
Peter K. Schott
NBER Working Paper Series.
2001.
w8492.
Unit values of US imports at the product level reveal a substantial degree of vertical
product differentiation among countries exporting to the US. This specialization
is not apparent by looking solely at trade flows. Two trends stand out. First, the
portion of US import products originating in either rich or poor countries exclusively
has fallen dramatically as US trade barriers have fallen, from 41% in 1972 to 17%
in 1994. Indeed, by 1994, nearly three quarters the products imported into the US
were sourced simultaneously from rich and poor countries. Second, within-product
unit value dispersion is positively and significantly correlated with source country
income: men's shirts imported from Japan in 1994, for example, are about thirty times
as expensive as shirts originating in the Philippines. These unit value premia, and
their increase over time, are consistent with the factor proportions framework but
convey a stark warning: industry trade flow data alone are too coarse to meet the
assumptions underlying most tests of trade theory.
Опубликовано на портале: 16-12-2003
Jeffrey J. Reimer
World Bank Policy Research Working Papers.
2002.
No. 2790.
As a new round of World Trade Organization negotiations is being launched with greater
emphasis on developing country participation, a body of literature is emerging which
quantifies how international trade affects the poor in developing countries. In this
survey of the literature, Reimer summarizes and classifies 35 trade and poverty studies
into four methodological categories: cross-country regression, partial-equilibrium
and cost-of-living analysis, general-equilibrium simulation, and micro-macro synthesis.
These categories include a broad range of methodologies in current use. The continuum
of approaches is bounded on one end by econometric analysis of household expenditure
data, which is the traditional domain of poverty specialists, and sometimes labeled
the “bottom-up” approach. On the other end of the continuum are computable
general equilibrium models based on national accounts data, or what might be called
the “top-down” approach.
Another feature of several recent trade and poverty studies—and one of the
primary conclusions to emerge from the October 2000 “Conference on Poverty
and the International Economy” sponsored by Globkom and the World Bank—is
the recognition that factor markets are perhaps the most important link between trade
and poverty, since households tend to be much more specialized in income than they
are in consumption. Meanwhile, survey data on the income sources of developing-country
households has become increasingly available. As a result, this survey gives particular
emphasis to the means by which studies address factor market links between trade
and poverty.
The general conclusion of Reimer’s survey is that any analysis of trade and
poverty needs to be informed by both the bottom-up and top-down perspectives. Indeed,
recent “two-step” micro-macro studies sequentially link these two types
of frameworks, such that general equilibrium mechanisms are incorporated along with
detailed household survey information. Another methodology in a similar spirit and
also increasingly used involves incorporating large numbers of surveyed households
into a general-equilibrium simulation model. Although most of these studies have
so far been limited to a single region, these approaches can be readily adapted for
multi-region modeling so that trade and poverty comparisons can be made across countries
within a consistent framework.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003
Karolina Ekholm, Rikard Forslid, James R. Markusen
NBER Working Paper Series.
2003.
w9517.
Export-platform foreign direct investment in which the affiliate's output is (largely)
sold in third markets rather than in the parent or host markets has received empirical
attention recently, but little theoretical analysis. This paper is an attempt to
make some sense of this phenomenon. Autors use a three-region model in which there are
two identical, large, high-cost economies and a small low-cost economy. Pure export-platform
production arises in a symmetric case, when a firm in each of the high-cost economies
has a plant at home, and a plant in the low-cost country (the South) to serve the
other high-cost country. This occurs when trade costs for intermediates (components)
and plant-fixed costs are moderate and the South has a moderate cost advantage in
assembly. Another interesting and empirically important case arises when there is
trade liberalization between one of the high-cost countries and the small, low-cost
country. The outside high-cost country may wish to build a branch plant inside the
free trade area due to market size, but chooses the low-cost country on the basis
of cost. Or a firm headquartered in the large country inside the free-trade area
might build a single plant in its low-wage partner in order to serve their joint
free-trade area and to export to the outside high-cost country.
Опубликовано на портале: 16-12-2003
Alexander Yeats, Francis Ng
World Bank Policy Research Working Papers.
2003.
No. 3085.
World Bank demographic and country characteristic statistics identify 16 small landlocked
countries that are similar to Lesotho. Ng and Yeats attempt to determine what useful
policy information can be derived from the recent trade performance of these “comparators.”
Among questions they pose are whether the trade profiles of the comparators suggest
potentially promising export ventures for Lesotho, do they indicate directions for
a geographic diversification of trade, or do they suggest products in which Lesotho
might acquire a comparative advantage. The authors also use U.S. partner country
statistics to evaluate Lesotho’s export performance in this major market.
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The U.S. data indicate Lesotho lost competitive export shares for about three-quarters
of its major clothing products during the late 1990s. The data show these losses
were primarily to the North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) countries in the
Caribbean. Lesotho was competing on basically equal terms and did not fare well.
But it is generally held that the most efficient clothing exporters are in the Far
East and not Latin America. Lesotho’s difficulties in competing with the latter
have worrisome implications for its ability to compete with East Asian exporters
when the Multifiber Arrangement is phased out.
The comparative advantage profiles of the landlocked comparator countries suggest
Lesotho’s options for a greatly needed export diversification may be wider
than is assumed. One or more of the comparator countries developed a comparative
advantage in 110 four-digit SITC (non-clothing) manufactures which are generally
labor-intensive in production. Many of these goods should also be suitable for production
and export by Lesotho.
International production sharing often involves the importation and further assembly
of components in developing countries. This activity can significantly broaden the
range of new products in which a country can diversify. Statistics show many landlocked
comparator countries have moved into component assembly operations, and it appears
this activity could contribute to Lesotho’s export diversification and industrialization.
But the quality problems associated with Lesotho’s trade statistics makes it
impossible to determine the extent to which local production sharing is occurring.
A special effort is needed to tabulate reliable statistics on Lesotho’s current
involvement in this activity.
Finally, the authors attempt to determine how the commercial policy environment in
Lesotho compares with that in other countries. Policymakers previously had difficulty
in addressing this issue, but several recent efforts to compile comprehensive cross-country
indices of the quality of governance and commercial policies now provide relevant
information. These statistics suggest domestic commercial policies make Lesotho relatively
less attractive to foreign investment than many other developing countries. Less
than 20 percent of all Latin American countries have a domestic commercial environment
judged to be inferior to that in Lesotho, while the corresponding share for East
Asia is under 30 percent. Overall, almost 70 percent of all developing countries
appear to pursue commercial policies that make them as, or more, attractive to foreign
investment than Lesotho.
Опубликовано на портале: 16-12-2003
Thorsten Beck
World Bank Policy Research Working Papers.
2000.
No. 2609.
Does financial development translate into a comparative advantage in industries that
use more external finance? Yes, it does.
Using industry-level data on firms’ dependence on external finance—data
for 36 industries and 56 countries—Beck shows that countries with better developed
financial systems have higher export shares and trade balances in industries that
use more external finance.
These results are robust to the use of alternative measures of external dependence
and financial development and are not attributable to reverse causality or simultaneity
bias.
Опубликовано на портале: 16-12-2003
Thorsten Beck
World Bank Policy Research Working Papers.
2001.
No. 2608.
Economies with better developed financial sectors have a comparative advantage in
manufacturing industries. A two-sector model shows the sector with large scale economies
profiting more than the other from a well-developed financial sector. In countries
with higher levels of financial development, manufactured exports represent a higher
share of GDP and of merchandise exports—and those countries have a higher trade
balance in manufactured goods.
Beck explores a possible link between financial development and trade in manufactures.
His theoretical model focuses on the role of financial intermediaries in facilitating
large-scale, high-return projects. Results show that economies with better developed
financial sectors have a comparative advantage in manufacturing industries.
He provides evidence for this hypothesis, first proposed by Kletzer and Bardhan (1987),
using a 30-year panel of data for 65 countries. Controlling for country-specific
effects and possible reverse causality, he shows that financial development exerts
a large causal impact on the level of both exports and the trade balance of manufactured
goods.
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003
Jiandong Ju, Kala Krishna
NBER Working Paper Series.
1998.
w6857.
Authors develop a model to study the behavior of firms in a Free Trade Area with Rules
of Origin and the consequences of this behavior on the market equilibrium and outcome.
Authors show that firms will choose to specialize, and that an FTA with strict ROOs
on
the intermediate good raises imports and hence improves market access in the final
good market reduces imports and hence harms market access in the intermediate good
market. More restrictive ROOs on the final good first raise and then lower imports
of the final good lower than raise imports of the intermediate good. Their turning
point is common so that imports of the final good are maximized and imports of the
intermediate good are minimized at a common level of restrictiveness of the rules
of origin. Authors show that our model can be reinterpreted to show that more restrictive
ROOs on the final good first improves and then harms the fortunes of labor, and to
cast light on a particular policy to improve market access. Other problems with a
similar structure could also be analyzed using our techniques; authors expect similar
results.
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003
Pol Antras
NBER Working Paper Series.
2003.
w9740.
Roughly one-third of world trade is intrafirm trade. This paper starts by unveiling
two systematic patterns in the volume of intrafirm trade. In a panel of industries,
the share of intrafirm imports in total U.S. imports is significantly higher, the
higher the capital intensity of the exporting industry. In a cross-section of countries
U.S. imports is significantly higher, the higher the capital-labor ratio of the exporting
country. I then show that these patterns can be rationalized in a theoretical framework
that combines a Grossman-Hart-Moore view of the firm with a Helpman-Krugman view
of international trade. In particular an incomplete-contracting, property-rights
model of the boundaries of the firm, which I then incorporate into a standard trade
model with imperfect competition and product differentiation. The model pins down
the boundaries of multinational firms as well as the international location of production,
and it is shown to predict the patterns of intrafirm trade identified above. Econometric
evidence reveals that the model is consistent with other qualitative and quantitative
features of the data.
Food Protection for Sale [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 25-10-2007
Rigoberto A. Lopez, Xenia Matschke
University of Connecticut, Department of Economics Working Paper.
2005.
No. 2005-13R.
This article tests the Protection for Sale (PFS) model using detailed data
from
U.S. food processing industries from 1978 to 1992 under alternative import demand
specifications. All empirical results support the PFS model predictions and
previous empirical work qualitatively. Although welfare weights are very sensitive
to import demand specification, a surprising result is that we obtain weights
between 2.6 and 3.6 for domestic welfare using import slopes or elasticities derived
from domestic demand and supply functions. In contrast, results based on
import slopes or elasticities from directly specified import demands (including the
Armington model) yield the usual, unrealistically large estimates for the domestic
welfare weight. We contend that the latter empirical paradox arises mainly because
the explanatory variables tend to be extremely large for industries with low
import ratios and/or low estimated elasticities or slopes resulting from relatively
volatile import prices. The results with derived import parameters point to a much
stronger role of campaign contributions within the PFS model than previously
found. They also suggest that the commonly-used Armington estimates may not
be appropriate for estimating the PFS model.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003
Robert E. Lipsey, Zadia Feliciano
NBER Working Paper Series.
2002.
w9122.
Using U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis data for individual foreign acquisitions and
new establishments in the U.S from 1988 to 1998, and aggregate data for 1980 to 1998,
autors find that acquisitions and establishments of new firms tend to occur in periods
of high U.S. growth and take place mainly in industries in which the investing country
has some comparative advantage in exporting. New establishments are largely in industries
of U.S. comparative disadvantage, and the relation of U.S. comparative advantage
to takeovers is also negative, but never significant. High U.S. stock prices, industry
profitability, and industry growth discourage takeovers. High U.S interest rates
and high investing country growth and currency values encourage takeovers. Direct
investments in acquisitions and new establishments thus tend to flow in the same
direction as trade. They originate in countries with comparative advantages in particular
industries and flow to industries of U.S. comparative disadvantage.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003
Kevin O'Rourke, Jeffrey G. Williamson
NBER Working Paper Series.
2002.
w8955.
A recent endogenous growth literature has focused on the transition from a Malthusian
world where real wages were linked to factor endowments, to one where modern growth
has broken that link. In this paper autor presents evidence on another, related phenomenon:
the dramatic reversal in distributional trends - from a steep secular fall to a
steep secular rise in wage-land rent ratios - which occurred some time early in
the 19th century. What explains this reversal? While it may seem logical to locate
the causes in the Industrial Revolutionary forces emphasized by endogenous growth
theorists, we provide evidence that something else mattered just as much: the opening
up of the European economy to international trade.
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003
James R. Markusen, Keith E. Maskus
NBER Working Paper Series.
2001.
w8334.
Beginning in the early 1980s, theoretical analyses have incorporated the multinational
firm into the microeconomic, general-equilibrium theory of international trade. Recent
advances indicate how vertical and horizontal multinationals arise endogenously as
determined by country characteristics, including relative size and relative endowment
differences, and trade and investment costs. Results also characterize the relationship
between foreign affiliate production and international trade in goods and services.
In this paper, we survey some of this recent work, and note the testable predictions
generated in the theory. In the second part of the paper, we examine empirical results
that relate foreign affiliate production to country characteristics and trade/investment
cost factors. We also review findings from analyses of the pattern of substitutability
or complementarity between trade and foreign production.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003
Tito Cordella, Isabel Grilo
IMF Working Paper Series.
1998.
No. 98/48 .
This paper uses a vertical differentiation duopoly framework to analyze firms. relocation
decisions when the removal either of trade barriers or of restrictions on capital
outflows or inflows (globalization) allows them to serve the domestic market through
foreign plants employing cheaper foreign labor.
The paper addresses two issues. First, it tries to explain which firms, within a
specific industry, have the stronger incentives in relocating their production facilities
in low-wage countries. It shows that such incentives are higher for the firm producing
the variety that would have a larger market share if the two goods were sold at their
marginal cost.
Second, it assesses the welfare consequences of the decision of domestic firms to
serve the domestic market through foreign plants. More precisely, it compares domestic
welfare under autarchy and under globalization. The recognition of the consequences
of relocation on unemployment allows to explicitly take into account the associated
variations in workers. surplus, when performing the welfare analysis. In this second-best
world, when the complete liberalization of trade and capital flows leads to the relocation
of the whole industry, autarchy is strictly better, on domestic welfare terms, than
globalization. However, when relocation is a dominant strategy for one (and only
one) firm, globalization may unambiguously be welfare improving. Finally, and somehow
against the common wisdom, the paper shows that the welfare cost of relocation is
lower, the lower is the level of the foreign wage.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003
Alan M. Taylor
NBER Working Paper Series.
2002.
w9326.
Recent research in international economic history has opened up new lines of enquiry
on the origins of globalization, as well as its causes and consequences. Such findings
have the potential to inform contemporary debates and this paper considers what lessons
this body of historical work has for our current understanding of the linkages between
trade and development.
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003
Kevin O'Rourke
NBER Working Paper Series.
2003.
w9872.
The aim of the paper is to see whether individuals' attitudes towards globalization
are consistent with the predictions of Heckscher-Ohlin theory. The theory predicts
that the impact of being skilled or unskilled on attitudes towards trade and immigration
should depend on a country's skill endowments, with the skilled being less anti-trade
and anti-immigration in more skill-abundant countries (here taken to be richer countries)
than in more unskilled-labour-abundant countries (here taken to be poorer countries).
These predictions are confirmed, using survey data for 24 countries. Being high-skilled
is associated with more pro-globalization attitudes in rich countries; while in some
of the very poorest countries in the sample being high-skilled has a negative (if
statistically insignificant) impact on pro-globalization sentiment. More generally,
an interaction term between skills and GDP per capita has a negative impact in regressions
explaining anti-globalization sentiment. Furthermore, individuals view protectionism
and anti-immigrant policies as complements rather than as substitutes, which is what
simple Heckscher-Ohlin theory predicts.
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