Всего статей в данном разделе : 136
Major Trade Trends in East Asia: What are their Implications for Regional Cooperation and Growth? [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 16-12-2003Alexander Yeats, Francis Ng World Bank Policy Research Working Papers. 2003. No. 3084.
This study’s empirical findings have positive implications for further efforts to expand East Asian regional trade and cooperation initiatives. Since the mid-1980s regional intra-trade has grown at a rate roughly double that of world trade, and at a rate far higher than the intra-trade of the North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) member countries or the European Union. Evidence based on intra-industry trade ratios or statistics on international production sharing show economic linkages and the interdependence of East Asian economies have considerably strengthened over the past two decades. On a global scale, East Asia (excluding Japan) now originates 19 percent of world trade, which is approximately the same share as the NAFTA member countries.
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003Sanghamitra Das, James R. Tybout, Mark J. Roberts NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. No. 8629.
As the exchange rate, foreign demand, production costs and export promotion policies evolve, manufacturing firms are continually faced with two issues: Whether to be an exporter, and if so, how much to export. Authors develop a dynamic structural model of export supply that characterizes these two decisions and estimate the model using plant-level panel data on Colombian chemical producers. The model embodies uncertainty, plant-level heterogeneity in export profits, and sunk entry costs for plants breaking into foreign markets. Author's estimates, and the simulation exercises that they support, yield several implications. First, entry costs are typically large, but vary greatly across producers. Second, there is substantial cross-plant heterogeneity in gross expected export profit streams. Third, these large entry costs make expectations about future exporting conditions important for many producers, so changes in the exchange rate regime that are credible induce much more entry than those that are not. Fourth, however, most of the entry and exit takes place among marginal exporters who contribute little to aggregate export revenues. Finally, subsidies on export earnings have a much larger impact on export revenues (per dollar spent) than subsidies that reduce the entry costs faced by new exporters.
Measuring the Impact of Distortions in Agricultural Trade in Partial and General Equilibrium [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003Stephen P. Tokarick IMF Working Paper Series. 2003. No. 03/110 .
This paper provides quantitative estimates of the impact of removing agricultural support (both tariffs and subsidies) in partial- and general-equilibrium frameworks. The results show that agricultural support in industrial countries is highly distortionary and tariffs have a larger distortionary impact than subsidies. Removal of agricultural support would likely raise the international prices of food, resulting in an increase in the cost of food for many net-food- importing countries, although the increase is generally small. The results also show that most of the benefits from removing agricultural support accrue to the countries that liberalize.
Опубликовано на портале: 16-12-2003Henrik Horn, James A. Levinsohn NBER Working Paper Series. 1997. No. 6077.
This paper is about the interactions between what is traditionally considered trade policy and a narrow but important aspect of competition policy, namely merger policy. We focus on links between merger policies and trade liberalization. We put special emphasis on the topical issue of the role that international agreements such as the GATT play when merger policies are nationally chosen. Of particular concern is the possibility that liberalization of international trade will induce countries to increasingly use competition policies to promote national interests at the expense of others. We examine the incentives for a welfare maximizing government to make such a substitution. Interpreting merger policy as a choice of degree of industrial concentration, we investigate how the merger policy that is optimal from the point of view of an individual country is affected by restrictions on the use of tariffs and export subsidies.
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003James R. Markusen, Keith E. Maskus NBER Working Paper Series. 1999. w7163.
An important component of Robert Lipsey's work has been his research on multinational firms, and his careful documentation of their behavior in terms of production and intra-firm trade. In this paper, authors extend recent theory referred to as the knowledge-capital model, which simultaneously generates motives for both horizontal and vertical multinational production. Autors use this model to derive predictions about foreign affiliates' pattern of production for local markets versus production for exports as functions of country characteristics such as market sizes, size differences, and relative endowment differences. These predictions are then taken to data on affiliate production and trade. Results confirm several hypotheses. The ratio of production for export sales to production for local sale by affiliates of foreign multinationals depends negatively on market size, investment and trade costs in the host country, and positively on the relative skilled-labor abundance of the parent country (skilled-labor scarcity of the host country).
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003James R. Markusen, Anthony J. Venables NBER Working Paper Series. 1996. w5483.
Adapting our earlier model of multinationals, authors address policy issues involving wages and labor skills. Multinational firms may arise endogenously, exporting their firm-specific knowledge capital to foreign production facilities, and geographically fragmenting production into skilled and unskilled-labor-intensive activities. Multinationals thus alter the nature of trade, from trade in goods (produced with both skilled and unskilled labor) to trade in skilled- labor-intensive producer services. Results shed light on several policy questions. First, multinationals increase the skilled/unskilled wage gap in the high income country and, under some circumstances, in the low income country as well. Second, there is a sense in which multinationals export low skilled jobs to the lower income country. Third, trade barriers do not protect unskilled labor in the high income countries. By inducing a regime shift to multinationals, trade barriers protect the abundant factor, at least in the high income country and possibly in both countries. Fourth, a convergence in country characteristics induces the entry of multinationals and raises the skilled-unskilled wage gap in the initially large and skilled-labor-abundant country, and possibly in the small skilled-labor-scarce country as well.
On the Duration of Trade [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003Tibor Besedes, Thomas J. Prusa NBER Working Paper Series. 2003. w9936.
This paper employs survival analysis to study the duration of US imports. Authors find that the median duration of exporting a product to the US is very short, on the order to two to four years. Author's results also indicate that there is negative duration dependence meaning that if a country is able to survive in the exporting market for the first few years it will face a very small probability of failure and will export the product for a long period of time. This result holds across countries and industries. Authors find that our results are not only robust to aggregation but are strengthened by aggregation. That is, as authors aggregate from product level trade data to SITC industry level trade data the estimated survival increases. They rank countries by their survival experience and show that our rankings are strongly correlated with the rankings in Feenstra and Rose (2002), implying that product cycle followers also experience particularly short duration.
Опубликовано на портале: 24-10-2007Xenia Matschke Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik. 1999. No. 219. P. 438-457.
In a static supergame context, a model is presented in which a foreign and a domestic firm form a cartel for selling a homogeneous good. In order to maximize joint cartel profit, the two firms have agreed to restrict sales to their own home market. Due to transfer costs, this market split paretodominates other cartel solutions. Side payments are assumed to be feasible. The introduction of an import quota may affect cartel stability as measured by a so-called critical interest rate. The two-country setting and the feasibility of side payments lead to results very different from previous findings that mild import regulations foster cartelization whereas severe restrictions destabilize quantity-setting cartels.
Опубликовано на портале: 16-12-2003Oleh Havrylyshyn, Hassan M. Al-Atrash IMF Working Paper Series. 1998. No. 98/22.
During the Soviet period, trade of the economies of the region was highly inward-oriented; this was particularly marked for most of the republics of the USSR, but a bit less so for Russia. Independence and transition to the market should have resulted in two changes: increased external trade relative to GDP as the central planning restrictions on foreign trade were lifted; and strong reorientation of trade to the rest of the world to achieve a more normal geographic distribution as central plan directives were removed, with the extent and speed of such geographic diversification affected by the degree of structural reform achieved. The paper tests these hypotheses. For most countries in central Europe, as well as a few others, one observes a trade openness ratio similar to or at least approaching that of market economies of comparable size and level of development. Using a variant of the gravity model, the study also finds that geographic diversification to the European Union is greater the closer is geographic proximity and the more progress a country makes in structural reforms. The model is used to simulate the effects of more ambitious structural reforms. The results suggest that even for countries most advanced in reforms, one might still expect as much as an 8-10 percentage point increase in the level of exports to the European Union, and more for others. There are several important policy implications from these results. First, much remains to be done in terms of liberalization and structural reform in most transition economies, which will in turn promote further restructuring and resource reallocation and trade diversification. Second, greater access to European Union markets may give an added boost to reorientation of trade. Third, while the results suggest the importance of differentiating competitive exchange rates, the limited period of time precludes differentiating fully the effects of exchange rate stability from those of financial stability.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003Robert E. Baldwin NBER Working Paper Series. 2003. w9578.
There is still disagreement among economists concerning how a country's international economic policies and its rate of economic growth interact, despite a number of multi-country case studies utilizing comparable analytical frameworks, numerous econometric studies using large cross-country data sets, and important theoretical advances in growth theory. This paper briefly surveys this literature and points out the main reasons for the disagreements. Particular attention is given to an important study by Francisco Rodriguez and Dani Rodrik (2001) criticizing the conclusion of a number of recent multi-country statistical studies that openness is associated with higher growth rates. Rodriguez and Rodrik show that openness simply in the sense of liberal trade policies seems to be no guarantee of faster growth. However, the conclusion of most researchers involved in either country studies or multi-country statistical tests that lower trade barriers in combination with a stable and non-discriminatory exchange-rate system, prudent monetary and fiscal policies and corruption-free administration of economic policies promote economic growth still seems to remain valid.
Optimal Currency Areas [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 25-10-2007Alberto Alesina, Robert J. Barro, Silvana Tenreyro NBER Macroeconomics Annual. 2002. Vol. 17.
As the number of independent countries increases and their economies become more integrated, we would expect to observe more multi-country currency unions. This paper explores the pros and cons for different countries to adopt as an anchor the dollar, the euro, or the yen. Although there appear to be reasonably well-defined euro and dollar areas, there does not seem to be a yen area. We also address the question of how trade and co-movements of outputs and prices would respond to the formation of a currency union. This response is important because the decision of a country to join a union would depend on how the union affects trade and co-movements
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003James R. Tybout NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. w8418.
By relaxing the assumption of perfect competition, the 'new' trade theory has generated a rich body of predictions concerning the effects of commercial policy on price-cost mark-ups, firm sizes, exports, productivity and profitability among domestic producers. This paper critically assesses the plant- and firm-level evidence on these linkages. Several robust findings are identified. First, mark-ups generally fall with import competition, but it is not clear whether this phenomenon reflect the elimination of market power or the creation of negative economic profits. Second, import-competing firms cut back their production levels when foreign competition intensifies, at least in the short run. This suggests that sunk entry or exit costs are important in most sectors. Third, trade rationalizes production in the sense that markets for the most efficient plants are expanded, but large import-competing firms tend to simultaneously contract. Fourth exposure to foreign competition often improves intra-plant efficiency. Fifth, firms that engage in international activities tend to be larger, more productive, and supply higher quality products. However the literature is mixed on whether international activities cause these characteristics or vice versa. Finally, the short-run and long-run effects of commercial policy on exports and market structure can be quite different. Both types of response depend upon initial conditions, sunk entry costs, and the extent of firm heterogeneity.
Product market Competition in Transition Economies: Increasing Varieties and Consumer Loyalty [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003Mitsutoshi M. Adachi Journal of Comparative Economics. 2005. No. 28. P. 700-715.
This paper analyzes product market competition between foreign entrants and former SOEs in transition markets with respect to expansion of product variety and consumer loyalty formation. While the market share motive induces the more efficient foreign entrant to price aggressively, the extent of this behavior depends critically on its relative efficiency vis-a-vis the local incumbent. If the efficiency gap exceeds some threshold value, the entrant exploits increasingly its cost advantages by raising price rather than investing in market share. Our result suggests that immediate restructuring of former SOEs is important to realize fully the competitive benefits of opening local markets.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003Stephen P. Tokarick IMF Working Paper Series. 2002. No. 02/191 .
This paper uses an applied general equilbrium model to decompose the effects of changes in trade and technology-related variables on wages of skilled and unskilled labor between 1982 and 1996 in the United States. The results indicate that trade-related variables (tariff cuts, improvement in the terms of trade, and the increase in the trade deficit) had little impact on the widening wage gap. Also, changes in total factor productivity had a small effect on relative wages. The major factor behind the rise in the skilled wage relative to the unskilled wage was differential rates of growth in skill-biased technical change across sectors. The paper also highlights the role that nontraded goods play in explaining the wage gap. Finally, the paper presents estimates of the effect of trade on wages by calculating what wage rates would be under autarky. The results show that expanding trade could actually reduce wage inequality, rather than increase it. The welfare costs to the U.S economy of moving to autarky (using 1996 as a base) are about 6 percent of GDP.
Опубликовано на портале: 16-12-2003Carsten Fink, Aaditya Mattoo World Bank Policy Research Working Papers. 2002. No. 2852.
Every major regional trade agreement now has a services dimension. Is trade in services so different that there is need to modify the conclusions on preferential agreements pertaining to goods reached so far? Mattoo and Fink first examine the implications of unilateral policy choices in a particular services market. They then explore the economics of international cooperation and identify the circumstances in which a country is more likely to benefit from cooperation in a regional rather than multilateral forum.