Всего статей в данном разделе : 136
Опубликовано на портале: 16-12-2003Christopher Kent, Paul A. Cashin IMF Working Paper Series. 2003. No. 03/143 .
Is the relationship between the current account balance and the terms of trade affected by the persistence of terms of trade shocks? In intertemporal models of the current account that incorporate a consumption-smoothing and an investment response to shocks, the effect of the terms of trade on external balances is predicted to be dependent on the duration of terms of trade shocks. Using a median-unbiased estimator, an unbiased model-selection rule, and terms of trade data for 128 countries over the period 1960-99 we identify two groups of countries-those that typically experience temporary terms of trade shocks and those that typically experience permanent terms of trade shocks. The results from panel-data regressions of the two groups of countries support the theoretical predictions of the intertemporal approach to the current account. We find that the greater (lesser) the persistence of the terms of trade shock, the more (less) the investment effect dominates the consumption-smoothing effect on saving, so that the current account balance moves in the opposite (same) direction as that of the shock.
The Significance of International Tax Rules for Sourcing Income: The Relationship Between Income Taxes and Trade Taxes [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003John Mutti, Harry Grubert NBER Working Paper Series. 1996. w5526.
This paper examines how rules to determine the source of income internationally for tax purposes can have important effects on the form in which taxable income is reported and on the location of economic activity. In the case of U.S. law, two provisions are significant: allowing a portion of export income to be regarded as foreign source and treating royalties received as foreign source. These source rules have become increasingly important due to tax policy changes adopted in the 1980s and to the growing role in U.S. production and trade of goods that require intangible intellectual property. In addition, very similar transactions can be carried out as trade in goods, trade in services or production by a foreign affiliate, and tax incentives can influence that choice. How the source rules operate and the incentives they create are demonstrated in a set of stylized calculations to determine after-tax returns under various assumptions about relevant income and withholding tax rates, tariffs, and the importance of tangible and intangible capital in production. An assessment of the empirical importance of these provisions is based on recent studies of the determinants of trade and investment by U.S. multinational corporations. The treatment of royalty income appears to encourage royalty payments from high-tax countries and to promote real economic activity there.
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003Christopher Blattman, Jason Hwang, Jeffrey G. Williamson NBER Working Paper Series. 2003. w9940.
The contending fundamental determinants of growth - institutions, geography and culture - exhibit far more persistence than do the growth rates they are supposed to explain. So, what exogenous shocks might account for the variance around those persistent fundamentals? The terms of trade seems to be one good place to look. Using a panel data base for 35 countries, this paper estimates the impact of terms of trade volatility and secular change between 1870 and 1938. Authors find that volatility was much more important than secular change. Additionally, both effects were asymmetric between core and periphery, findings that speak directly to the terms of trade debates that have raged since Prebisch and Singer wrote more than 50 years ago.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003Peter J. Klenow, David Hummels NBER Working Paper Series. 2002. w8712.
Not surprisingly, big countries trade more than small countries. In this paper autors use data on shipments by 110 exporters to 59 importers in 5,000 product categories to ask: how? Do big countries trade larger quantities of a common set of goods (the intensive margin), a larger set of goods (the extensive margin), or higher quality goods? Autors find that the extensive margin accounts for two-thirds of the greater exports of larger economies, and one-third of the greater imports of larger economies. Richer countries export more units at higher prices. These calculations are useful for distinguishing features of trade models that correspond more or less well to the data. Models with Armington national product differentiation do not feature the extensive margin, and wrongly predict that greater output will be accompanied by worse terms of trade. "Krugman" style models with firm level product differentation fare better, but must be modified to include quality differentiation and fixed costs of trading to match all of the facts. Estimates based on these modifications imply that differences in goods' quality could be the proximate cause of about 25% of country differences in real income per worker.
Опубликовано на портале: 24-12-2003Douglas A. Irwin NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. w8692.
The United States came close to complete autarky in 1808 as a result of a self-imposed embargo on international shipping from December 1807 to March 1809. Monthly prices of exported and imported goods reveal the embargo's striking effect on commodity markets and allow a calculation of its welfare effects. A simple general equilibrium calculation suggests that the embargo cost about 8 percent of America's 1807 GNP, at a time when the trade share was about 13 percent (domestic exports and shipping earnings). The welfare cost was lower than the trade share because the embargo did not completely eliminate trade and because domestic producers successfully shifted production toward previously imported manufactured goods.
Опубликовано на портале: 16-12-2003Arvind Subramanian, Shang-Jin Wei IMF Working Paper Series. 2003. No. 03/185.
This paper furnishes robust evidence that the GATT/WTO has had a powerful and positive impact on trade. The impact has, however, been uneven. GATT/WTO membership for industrial countries has been associated with a large increase in imports estimated at about 40 percent of world trade. The same has not been true for developing country members, although those that joined after the Uruguay Round have benefited from increased imports. Similarly, there have been asymmetric effects among sectors, with WTO membership associated with substantially greater imports in sectors where barriers are low. These results are consistent with the history and design of the institution, which presided over significant trade liberalization by the industrial countries except in sectors such as food and clothing; largely exempted developing countries from the obligations to liberalize under the principle of special and differential treatment; but attempted to redress the latter by imposing greater obligations on developing country members that joined after the Uruguay Round.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003Allan D. Brunner, Kanda Naknoi IMF Working Paper Series. 2003. No. 03/54 .
This paper examines the effects of trade costs on macroeconomic volatility. Autors first construct a dynamic, two-country general equilibrium model, where the degree of market integration depends directly on trade costs (transport costs, tariffs, etc.). The model is a extension of Obstfeld and Rogoff (1995). Naturally, a reduction in trade costs leads to more market integration, as the relative price of foreign goods falls and households increase their consumption of imported goods. In addition, with more market integration, the model predicts that the variability of the real exchange rate should fall, while the variability of the trade balance should increase. Trade costs have ambiguous effects on the volatility of other macro variables, such as income and consumption. Finally, autors present some empirical findings that provide mixed support for the model's predictions.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003Claudio A. Paiva IMF Working Paper Series. 2003. No. 03/140 .
This paper provides econometric estimates of trade elasticities for Brazil obtained through cointegration and vector auto regression models and controlling for the effects of exchange rate volatility, capacity utilization, and changes in import tariffs. The results suggest that (i) recent market expectations may have been unduly pessimistic regarding the responsiveness of Brazil's trade flows to the real exchange rate, but (ii) the GDP growth rates targeted by the new government may put downward pressure on the exchange rate and thus render the achievement of official inflation targets considerably more difficult if structural reforms are not implemented.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003Andrew Berg, Anne O. Krueger IMF Working Paper Series. 2003. No. 03/30 .
This survey of the recent literature asks: how important is trade policy for poverty reduction? Autors consider the effects of openness on poverty in two components: the effect of openness on average income growth, and the effect on distribution for a given growth rate. Evidence from a variety of sources (cross-country and panel growth regressions, industry and firm-level research, and case studies) supports the view that trade openness contributes greatly to growth. Moreover, trade openness does not have systematic effects on the poor beyond its effect on overall growth. Trade policy is only one of many determinants of growth and poverty reduction. Trade openness has important positive spillovers on other aspects of reform, however, so that the correlation of trade with other pro-reform policies speaks to the advantages of making openness a primary part of the reform package.
Trade, Growth and the Environment [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003Brian R. Copeland, M. Scott Taylor NBER Working Paper Series. 2003. w9823.
For the last ten years environmentalists and the trade policy community have engaged in a heated debate over the environmental consequences of liberalized trade. The debate was originally fueled by negotiations over the North American Free Trade Agreement and the Uruguay round of GATT negotiations, both of which occurred at a time when concerns over global warming, species extinction and industrial pollution were rising. Recently it has been intensified by the creation of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and proposals for future rounds of trade negotiations. The debate has often been unproductive. It has been hampered by the lack of a common language and also suffered from little recourse to economic theory and empirical evidence. The purpose of this essay is set out what we currently know about the environmental consequences of economic growth and international trade. We critically review both theory and empirical work to answer three basic questions. What do we know about the relationship between international trade, economic growth and the environment? How can this evidence help us evaluate ongoing policy debates? Where do we go from here?
Trade Integration and Risk Sharing [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003Aart Kraay, Jaume Ventura NBER Working Paper Series. 2002. w8804.
What are the effects of increased trade in goods and services on the trade balance? Autors study the effects of reducing transport costs in a Ricardian model with complete asset markets. Trade integration has three effects on the structure of the economy: a reduction in the home bias in consumption, an increase in the degree of international competition in goods markets, and a reduction in real exchange rate volatility. The reduction in the home bias increases the volatility of the trade balance regardless of the source of shocks. Except for the case where supply shocks lead to counter-cyclical trade balances, (i) the increase in international competition also increases the volatility of the trade balance; and (ii) the reduction in real exchange rate volatility increases the volatility of the trade balance if risk aversion is low but lowers it if risk aversion is high. The opposite applies when supply shocks lead to counter-cyclical trade balances. Autors calibrate the model to U.S. data and provide a quantitative assessment of the effects of increased trade in services on the trade balance.
Trade Liberalization, Macroeconomic Adjustment, and Welfare: Unifying Trade and Macro Models [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2007Ehsan U. Choudhri, Hamid Faruqee, Stephen P. Tokarick IMF, Working Paper. 2006. No. 6/304.
Trade liberalization leads to long-run gains, but it can also involve costly short-run macroeconomic adjustment. The paper explores the relative importance of these effects within a dynamic general equilibrium model that captures key elements of both international trade and macroeconomic models. The welfare effect of trade liberalization is decomposed into a steady-state efficiency gain and a transitional loss associated with wage-price stickiness. Our estimates show that the transitional loss is small relative to the steady-state gain, and tends to be lower under flexible as compared to fixed exchange rates. We also show that the loss can be reduced further by a flexible price-level targeting policy rule.
Trade Policy and Industrial Sector Responses: Using Evolutionary Models to Interpret the Evidence [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003Erkan Erdem, James R. Tybout NBER Working Paper Series. 2003. w9947.
Firm- and plant-level empirical studies typically find that trade liberalization squeezes price-cost margins among import-competing firms, that this heightened competitive pressure induces productivity gains among these same firms, and that further efficiency gains come from market share reallocations. Using a computable industrial evolution model to simulate the dynamic effects of import competition, we demonstrate what types of managerial behavior, long-term transition paths and welfare effects are consistent with this set of stylized facts.
Опубликовано на портале: 24-12-2003Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg, Nina Pavcnik NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. w8575.
Starting in 1985, Colombia experienced gradual trade liberalization that culminated in the drastic tariff reductions of 1990-91. This paper exploits these trade reforms to investigate the relationship between protection and wages. The focus of the analysis is on relative wages, defined as industry wage premiums relative to the economy-wide average wage. Using the June waves of the Colombian National Household Survey, we first compute wage premiums for the period 1984-98, adjusting for a series of worker characteristics, job and firm attributes, and informality. We find that industry wage premiums in Colombia exhibit remarkably less persistence over time than U.S. wage premiums. Similarly, measures of trade protection are less correlated over time than in the U.S. data, indicating that as a result of trade liberalization the structure of protection has changed. Regressions of wage premiums on tariffs, without industry fixed effects, produce a negative relationship between protection and wages; workers in protected sectors earn less than workers with similar observable characteristics in unprotected sectors. With fixed effects the results are reversed: Trade protection is found to increase relative wages. The effect is economically significant: Elimination of tariffs in an industry with an average level of protection in 1984 would lead to a 4% wage decline in this industry. For the most protected industries the effect increases to 7.3%. We also find that - in contrast to the U.S. - sectors with high import penetration in Colombia pay higher wages; nevertheless, regressions with industry fixed effects indicate that an increase of imports in a particular sector is associated with lower wages. The differences between the results with and without fixed effects are indicative of the importance of (time-invariant) political economy factors as determinants of protection. Further issues concerning the effects of trade liberalization, such as the relevance of time-variant political economy factors, the importance of employment guarantees, liberalization induced productivity changes, and the interplay of trade and labor reforms, will be investigated in a sequel paper.
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003Richard B. Freeman NBER Working Paper Series. 2003. w10000.
The rules governing trade and capital flows have been at the center of controversy as globalization has proceeded. One reason is the belief that trade and capital flows have massive effects on the labor market -either positive, per the claims of international financial institutions and free trade enthusiasts, or negative, per the ubiquitous protestors at WTO, IMF, and World Bank meetings demanding global labor standards. Comparing the claims made in this debate with the outcomes of trade agreements, this paper finds that the debate has exaggerated the effects of trade on economies and the labor market. Changes in trade policy have had modest impacts on labour market. Other aspects of globalization -immigration, capital flows, and technology transfer -- have greater impacts, with volatile capital flows creating great risk for the well-being of workers. As for labor standards, global standards do not threaten the comparative advantage of developing countries nor do poor labor standards create a race to the bottom.