The Review of Economic Studies
Опубликовано на портале: 11-11-2004James Tobin The Review of Economic Studies. 1958. Vol. 25. No. 2. P. 65-86.
One of basic functional relationships in the Keynesian model of the economy is the liquidity preference schedule, an inverse relationship between the demand for cash balances and the rate of interest. This aggregative function must be derived from some assumptions regarding the behavior of the decision-making units of the economy, and those assumptions are the concern of this paper.
Опубликовано на портале: 16-11-2007John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller The Review of Economic Studies. 1991. Vol. 58. No. 3. P. 495-514.
This paper examines postwar U.S. term structure data and finds that for almost any combination of maturities between one month and ten years, a high yield spread between a longer-term and a shorter-term interest rate forecasts rising shorter-term interest rates over the long term, but a declining yield on the longer-term bond over the short term. This pattern is inconsistent with the expectations theory of the term structure, but is consistent with a model in which the spread is proportional to the value implied by the expectations theory.