Всего статей в данном разделе : 977
Опубликовано на портале: 12-11-2004Benjamin F. King Journal of Business. 1966. Vol. 39. No. 1. P. 139-190.
The analysis of the interdependence of an ensemble of security prices changes carries with it implications for such seemingly diverse financial topics as (1) methods of portfolio selection, (2) the design of index numbers, and (3) the theory of cost of capital. The concluding section of this work will attempt to relate these subjects to the principal statistical results in addition to suggesting further research that can capitalize on the present finding.
Опубликовано на портале: 16-11-2007Eugene F. Fama Journal of Financial Economics. 1998. Vol. 49. P. 283-306.
Market effciency survives the challenge from the literature on long-term return anomalies. Consistent with the market e¦ciency hypothesis that the anomalies are chance results, apparent overreaction to information is about as common as underreaction, and post-event continuation of pre-event abnormal returns is about as frequent as post-event reversal. Most important, consistent with the market effciency prediction that apparent anomalies can be due to methodology, most long-term return anomalies tend to disappear with reasonable changes in technique
Опубликовано на портале: 03-12-2007David L. Ikenberry, Josef Lakonishok, Theo Vermaelen Journal of Financial Economics. 1995. Vol. 39. No. 2-3. P. 181-208.
We examine long-run firm performance following open market share repurchase announcements, 1980–1990. We find that the average abnormal four-year buy-and-hold return measured after the initial announcement is 12.1%. For ‘value’ stocks, companies more likely to be repurchasing shares because of undervaluation, the average abnormal return is 45.3%. For repurchases announced by ‘glamour’ stocks, where undervaluation is less likely to be an important motive, no positive drift in abnormal returns is observed. Thus, at least with respect to value stocks, the market errs in its initial response and appears to ignore much of the information conveyed through repurchase announcements
Опубликовано на портале: 06-10-2004J. Michael Harrison, Stanley R. Pliska Stochastic Processes and their Applications. 1981. Vol. 11. No. 3. P. 215-260.
This paper develops a general stochastic model of a frictionless security market with continuous trading. The vector price process is given by a semimartingale of a certain class, and the general stochastic integral is used to represent capital gains. Within the framework of this model, we discuss the modern theory of contingent claim valuation, including the celebrated option pricing formula of Black and Scholes. It is shown that the security market is complete if and only if its vector price process has a certain martingale representation property. A multidimensional generalization of the Black-Scholes model is examined in some detail, and some other examples are discussed briefly.
Mean Reversion across National Stock Markets and Parametric Contrarian Investment Strategies [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 03-12-2007Ronald Balvers, Yangru Wu, Eric Gilliland Journal of Finance. 2000. Vol. 55. No. 2. P. 745-772.
For U.S. stock prices, evidence of mean reversion over long horizons is mixed, possibly due to lack of a reliable long time series. Using additional cross-sectional power gained from national stock index data of 18 countries during the period 1969 to 1996, we find strong evidence of mean reversion in relative stock index prices. Our findings imply a significantly positive speed of reversion with a half-life of three to three and one-half years. This result is robust to alternative specifications and data. Parametric contrarian investment strategies that fully exploit mean reversion across national indexes outperform buy-and-hold and standard contrarian strategies
Modeling the Relationship between Corporate Strategy and Wealth Creation Using Neural Networks [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 21-06-2006Caron H. St. John, Nagraj Balakrishnan, James O. Fiet Computers & Operations Research. 2000. Vol. 27. No. 11-12.
In this paper, we hypothesize that there is a non-linear relationship between corporate strategy, short-run financial variables, and wealth creation measured as market value added (MVA), and use neural networking to model this relationship. The neural network model accurately categorized over 90% in the training set and nearly 93% of firms in the holdout test sample. Additional analysis revealed that strategy variables were particularly effective predictors of an upward trend in wealth creation whereas short-run financial variables were more effective in predicting a downward trend, or wealth destruction. Neural networks outperformed discriminant analysis in predictive ability in all analyses, suggesting the presence of non-linear effects. This research represents a first attempt to use neural networking to model the relationship between corporate strategy and wealth creation.
Опубликовано на портале: 11-11-2004John D.C. Little Management Science. 1970. Vol. 16. No. 8. P. B466-B485.
A manager tries to put together the various resources under his control into an activity that achieves his objectives. A model of his operation can assist him but probably will not unless it meets certain requirements. A model that is to be used by a manager should be simple, robust, easy to control, adaptive, as complete as possible, and easy to communicate with. By simple is meant easy to understand; by robust, hard to get absurd answers from; by easy to control, that the user knows what input data would be required to produce desired output answers; adaptive means that the model can be adjusted as new information is acquired; completeness implies that important phenomena will be included even if they require judgmental estimates of their effect; and, finally, easy to communicate with means that the manager can quickly and easily change inputs and obtain and understand the outputs. Such a model consists of a set of numerical procedures for processing data and judgments to assist managerial decision making and so will be called a decision calculus. An example from marketing is described. It is an on-line model for use by product managers on advertising budgeting questions. The model is currently in trial use by several product managers.
Momentum Strategies [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 23-11-2007Louis K.C. Chan, Narasimhan Jegadeesh, Josef Lakonishok NBER Working Paper. 1995. No. 5375.
We relate the predictability of future returns from past returns to the market's underreaction to information, focusing on past earnings news. Past return and past earnings surprise each predict large drifts in future returns after controlling for the other. There is little evidence of subsequent reversals in the returns of stocks with high price and earnings momentum. Market risk, size and book-to- market effects do not explain the drifts. Security analysts' earnings forecasts also respond sluggishly to past news, especially in the case of stocks with the worst past performance. The results suggest a market that responds only gradually to new information
Опубликовано на портале: 06-10-2004Phelim P. Boyle, Mark Broadie, Paul Glasserman Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control. 1997. Vol. 21. No. 8-9. P. 1267-1321 .
The Monte Carlo approach has proved to be a valuable and flexible computational tool in modern finance. This paper discusses some of the recent applications of the Monte Carlo method to security pricing problems, with emphasis on improvements in efficiency. We first review some variance reduction methods that have proved useful in finance. Then we describe the use of deterministic low-discrepancy sequences, also known as quasi-Monte Carlo methods, for the valuation of complex derivative securities. We summarize some recent applications of the Monte Carlo method to the estimation of partial derivatives or risk sensitivities and to the valuation of American options. We conclude by mentioning other applications.
Опубликовано на портале: 14-06-2006Benjamin Maury, Anete Pajuste Journal of Banking & Finance. 2005. Vol. 29. No. 7. P. 1813-1834.
This paper investigates the effects of having multiple large shareholders on the valuation of firms. Using data on Finnish listed firms, we show, consistent with our model, that a more equal distribution of votes among large blockholders has a positive effect on firm value. This result is particularly strong in family-controlled firms suggesting that families (which typically have managerial or board representation) are more prone to private benefit extraction if they are not monitored by another strong blockholder. We also show that the relation between multiple blockholders and firm value is significantly affected by the identity of these blockholders.
Mutual Fund Performance [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 25-09-2007William F. Sharpe Journal of Business. 1966. Vol. 39. No. 1 part 2. P. 119-138.
National Institutions and High Tech Industries: A Varieties of Capitalism Perspective on the Failure of Germany’s “Neuer Markt” [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 17-11-2008Sigurt Vitols, Lutz Engelhardt WZB Discussion Paper. 2005. No. 2005-03.
One of the more prominent recent failures in institutional innovation in Germany was the Neuer Markt (1997-2003), a special segment of the Frankfurt stock exchange designed for high-growth companies. Based in part on insights from the law and economics approach to agency theory, which emphasizes transparency in financial reporting and shareholder rights, the Neuer Markt was an attempt to promote high-tech sectors through increasing the supply of risk capital in Germany. Proponents of the agency approach have suggested that the Neuer Markt failed because reporting requirements and shareholder protection were still inadequate, and have argued for even stricter financial regulation. This paper offers an alternative explanation for the failure of the Neuer Markt based on the Varieties of Capitalism (VOC) approach. This explanation focuses on the complementarities between financial markets and labor markets. Successful entrepreneurial companies require both capital and experienced managers and scientists willing to take higher risks in search of higher returns. Although the supply of risk-friendly capital increased briefly in the late 1990s in Germany, labor markets did not fundamentally change. In particular, mobility in the market for mid-career scientists and managers remains quite low, making it difficult for startups to attract the experienced knowledge workers they need to succeed.
Опубликовано на портале: 02-10-2003Michael J. Barclay, Clifford G. Holderness Journal of Finance. 1991. Vol. 46. No. 3. P. 861-878.
We identify negotiated trades of large-percentage blocks of stock as corporate control transactions. When a block trades and the firm is not fully acquired, cumulative abnormal returns average 5.6%, and 33% of the chief executives are replaced within a year. Stock-price increases are larger when control passes to the new blockholder, when management does not resist the blockholder's effort to influence corporate policy, and when the block purchaser eventually fully acquires the firm. These findings suggest that the specific skills and expertise of blockholders, and not just the concentration of ownership, are important determinants of firm value.
Опубликовано на портале: 26-11-2007John Kambhu, Scott Weidman, Neel Krishnan Economic Policy Review. 2007. Vol. 13. No. 2. P. 1-83.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released a report -- New Directions for Understanding Systemic Risk -- that presents key findings from a cross-disciplinary conference that it cosponsored in May 2006 with the National Academy of Sciences' Board on Mathematical Sciences and Their Applications. The pace of financial innovation over the past decade has increased the complexity and interconnectedness of the financial system. This development is important to central banks, such as the Federal Reserve, because of their traditional role in addressing systemic risks to the financial system. To encourage innovative thinking about systemic issues, the New York Fed partnered with the National Academy of Sciences to bring together more than 100 experts on systemic risk from 22 countries to compare cross-disciplinary perspectives on monitoring, addressing and preventing this type of risk. This report, released as part of the Bank's Economic Policy Review series, outlines some of the key points concerning systemic risk made by the various disciplines represented - including economic research, ecology, physics and engineering - as well as presentations on market-oriented models of financial crises, and systemic risk in the payments system and the interbank funds market. The report concludes with observations gathered from the sessions and a discussion of potential applications to policy. The three papers presented in this conference session highlighted the positive feedback effects that produce herdlike behavior in markets, and the subsequent discussion focused in part on means of encouraging heterogeneous investment strategies to counter such behavior. Participants in the session also discussed the types of models used to study systemic risk and commented on the challenges and trade-offs researchers face in developing their models.
New Normal для России [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 19-12-2012Ксения Валентиновна Юдаева Экономическая политика. 2010. № 6. С. 196-200.
В экономическом плане грядущее десятилетие (2010-е годы), по-видимому, будет кардинально отличаться от предыдущего. Как и в случае Сша, можно говорить о «новой норме» в России, складывающейся под воздействием демографических проблем, глобального замедления, тенденций в инвестиционном климате. В последние годы Россия делала ставку на рост за счет потребительского спроса, и теперь становятся видны ограничения такого пути развития.