Всего статей в данном разделе : 58
Опубликовано на портале: 05-10-2004Елена Игоревна Панова
Уклонение от уплаты налогов является одним из наиболее серьезных препятствий для экономического роста в России. Данная проблема, в частности проблема существование “теневого” сектора, широко обсуждалась в экономической литературе. Эта работа основана на модели Ковелла и Гордона, построенной ими в . В исходной модели изучается уклонение от налогов и учитывается, что налогоплательщики могут становиться “призраками”, неизвестными налоговой инспекции, полностью уходя в “тень”. В данной работе рассматриваются причины, по которым “призраки” могут не захотеть увеличивать выпуск и инвестировать в производство. Выясняется, что при некоторых условиях фирмы, проводящие исключительно нелегальные операции, могут вовсе не инвестировать в производство. Таким образом, фискальная политика, порождающая расширение теневого сектора, потенциально замедляет экономический рост.
Borders and Growth [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 14-03-2005Enrico Spolaore, Romain Wacziarg NBER Working Paper Series. 2002. No. 9223.
This paper presents a framework to understand and measure the effects of political borders on economic growth and per capita income levels. We present a model providing a theoretical foundation to estimate empirically the effects of political borders on growth. In our model, political integration between two countries results in a positive country size effect and a negative effect through reduced openness vis- -vis the rest of the world. We estimate the growth effects that would have resulted from the hypothetical removal of national borders between pairs of adjacent countries. We also identify country pairs where political integration would have been mutually beneficial.
Опубликовано на портале: 16-04-2007Maria Maher, Thomas Andersson OECD Working Papers. 1999.
This paper examines some of the strengths, weaknesses, and economic implications associated with various corporate governance systems in OECD countries. Each country has through time developed a wide variety of mechanisms to overcome the agency problems arising from the separation of ownership and control. We discuss the various mechanisms employed in different systems (e.g. the market for corporate control, executive remuneration schemes, concentrated ownership, cross-shareholdings amongst firms) and assess the evidence on whether or not they are conducive to firm performance and economic growth. For example, we show how the corporate governance framework can impinge upon the development of equity markets, R&D and innovative activity, and the development of an active SME sector, and thus impinge upon economic growth. Several policy implications are identified.
Опубликовано на портале: 14-03-2005Ricardo J. Caballero, Mohamad L. Hammour NBER Working Paper Series. 2000. No. 7849.
There is increasing empirical evidence that creative destruction, driven by experimentation and the adoption of new products and processes when investment is sunk, is a core mechanism of development. Obstacles to this process are likely to be obstacles to the progress in standards of living. Generically, underdeveloped and politicized institutions are a major impediment to a well-functioning creative destruction process, and result in sluggish creation, technological sclerosis,' and spurious reallocation. Those ills reflect the macroeconomic consequences of contracting failures in the presence of sunk investments. Recurrent crises are another major obstacle to creative destruction. The common inference that increased liquidations during crises result in increased restructuring is unwarranted. Indications are, to the contrary, that crises freeze the restructuring process and that this is associated with the tight financial-market conditions that follow. This productivity cost of recessions adds to the traditional costs of resource under-utilization.
Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 16-11-2004Gernot Doppelhofer, Xavier Sala-i-Martin, Ronald I. Miller NBER Working Paper Series. 2000. w7750.
This paper examines the robustness of explanatory variables in cross-country economic growth regressions. It employs a novel approach, Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE), which constructs estimates as a weighted average of OLS estimates for every possible combination of included variables. The weights applied to individual regressions are justified on Bayesian grounds in a way similar to the well-known Schwarz criterion. Of 32 explanatory variables we find 11 to be robustly partially correlated with long-term growth and another five variables to be marginally related. Of all the variables considered, the strongest evidence is for the initial level of real GDP per capita.
Опубликовано на портале: 16-11-2004Geert Bekaert, Campbell R. Harvey, Christian Lundblad NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. w8245.
We show that equity market liberalizations, on average, lead to a one percent increase in annual real economic growth over a five-year period. The liberalization effect is not spuriously accounted for by macro-economic reforms and does not reflect a business cycle effect. Although financial liberalizations further financial development, measures of financial development fail to fully drive out the liberalization effect. The investment/GDP ratio increases post liberalization, with the investment partially financed by foreign capital inducing worsened trade balances. Differentiating across liberalizing countries, a large secondary school enrollment, a small government sector and an Anglo-Saxon legal system tend to enhance the liberalization effect. Finally, the conditional convergence effect is larger once financial liberalization is accounted for.
Опубликовано на портале: 05-10-2004Sebastian Edwards
In this paper we analyze the macroeconomic record of dollarized economies. In particular, we investigate whether, as its supporters' claim, dollarization is associated with lower inflation and faster growth. We analyze this issue by using a matching estimator technique developed in the training evaluation literature. Our findings suggest that inflation has been significantly lower in dollarized nations than in non-dollarized ones. We also find that dollarized nations have had a lower rate of economic growth than non-dollarized ones. Finally, we find that macroeconomic volatility is not significantly different across dollarized and non-dollarized economies. We conjecture that the lower rate of economic growth in dollarized countries is due, at least in part, to these countries' difficulties in accommodating external disturbances, such as major term of trade and capital flows shocks.
Dollarization, Inflation and Growth [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 05-10-2004Sebastian Edwards, I. Igal Magendzo NBER Working Paper Series. 2001.
In this paper we analyze the macroeconomic record of dollarized economies. In particular, we investigating whether, as its supporters' claim, dollarization is associated with lower inflation and faster growth. We analyze this issue by using a matching estimator technique developed in the training evaluation literature. Our findings suggest that inflation has been significantly lower in dollarized nations than in non-dollarized ones. We also find that dollarized nations have had a lower rate of economic growth than non-dollarized ones. Finally, we find that macroeconomic volatility is not significantly different across dollarized and non-dollarized economies. We conjecture that the lower rate of economic growth in dollarized countries is due, at least in part, to these countries' difficulties in accommodating external disturbances, such as major term of trade and capital flows shocks.
Опубликовано на портале: 11-08-2004Olivier Jean Blanchard, Philippe Weil NBER Working Paper Series. 1992. w3992.
Can government roll their debt over in dynamically efficient economies, and thus avoid the need to raise taxes? While the answer is a clear "no" under certainty, it depends, under uncertainty, on whether public debt provides intergenerational insurance. When it does not, rollover is not possible, even if the rate of return on one-period bonds is below the growth rate. When it does, debt rollover may be possible if the return on one-period bonds is above the growth rate.
Опубликовано на портале: 26-10-2004Alejandro Ramirez, Gustav Ranis, Frances Stewart QEH Working Paper Series. 1998. No. 18.
This paper explores the links between economic growth and human development, identifying two chains, one from economic growth to human development, and the other, conversely, from human development to economic growth. The various links in each chain are explored, together with a review of some existing empirical material on their importance. The paper examines the significance of the relationships, for the chains as a whole and for particular links in them, with the help of cross-country statistics for the period 1970-92. It finds that there exists a strong positive relationship in both directions and that public expenditure on social services and female education are especially important links determining the strength of the relationship between economic growth and human development, while the investment rate and income distribution are significant links in determining the strength of the relationship between human development and economic growth. The existence of these chains gives rise to the potential for virtuous or vicious cycles of development, with good or bad performance on HD and economic growth reinforcing each other over time. The paper concludes by classifying the actual performance of developing countries into these virtuous and vicious cycles, as well as identifying lop- sided performers, with good performance in one dimension but not the other, and explores how country classification can change over time. We find that lop-sided development almost never persists: countries which are initially lop-sided favoring economic growth always lapse into the vicious category; but countries where HD is favored can move into the virtuous category. This has strong sequencing implications, implying that, while ideally both HD and economic growth should be jointly promoted, HD should be given priority where a choice is necessary.
Опубликовано на портале: 14-03-2005David E. Bloom, David Canning, Jaypee Sevilla NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. No. 8685.
For decades, economists and social thinkers have debated the influence of population change on economic growth. Three alternative positions define this debate: that population growth restricts, promotes, or is independent of economic growth. Proponents of each explanation can find evidence to support their cases. All of these explanations, however, focus on population size and growth. In recent years, however, the debate has under-emphasized a critical issue, the age structure of the population (that is, the way in which the population is distributed across different age groups), which can change dramatically as the population grows. Because people's economic behavior varies at different stages of life, changes in a country's age structure can have significant effects on its economic performance. Nations with a high proportion of children are likely to devote a high proportion of resources to their care, which tends to depress the pace of economic growth. By contrast, if most of a nation's population falls within the working ages, the added productivity of this group can produce a 'demographic dividend' of economic growth, assuming that policies to take advantage of this are in place. In fact, the combined effect of this large working-age population and health, family, labor, financial, and human capital policies can create virtuous cycles of wealth creation. And if a large proportion of a nation's population consists of the elderly, the effects can be similar to those of a very young population. A large share of resources is needed by a relatively less productive segment of the population, which likewise can inhibit economic growth. After tracing the history of theories of the effects of population growth, this report reviews evidence on the relevance of changes in age structure for economic growth. It also examines the relationship between population change and economic development in particular regions of the world: East Asia; Japan; OECD, North America and Western Europe; South-central and Southeast Asia; Latin America; Middle East and North Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. Finally, it discusses the key policy variables that, combined with reduced fertility and increases in the working-age population, have contributed to economic growth in some areas of the developing world.
Опубликовано на портале: 17-09-2004Robert J. Barro NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. w8330.
In 1997-98, five east Asian countries - Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea, the Philippines, and Thailand - experienced sharp currency and banking crises. The contraction of real GDP was severe in relation to the previous history and in comparison with five east Asian countries that were less affected by the financial crisis. Recoveries in the five crisis countries in 1999-2000 were strong in most cases, but it is unclear whether the pre-crisis growth paths will be reattained. Indications for permanently depressed prospects come from the sharp reductions in investment ratios, which have recovered only slightly, and the lowered stock-market prices. A panel analysis for a broad group of economies shows that a combined currency and banking crisis typically reduces economic growth over a five-year period by 2% per year, compared with 3% per year for the 1997-98 crisis in east Asia. The broader analysis found no evidence that financial crises had effects on growth that persisted beyond a five-year period.
Опубликовано на портале: 05-10-2004Alan B. Krueger, Mikael Lindahl NBER Working Paper Series. 2000.
This paper tries to reconcile evidence from the microeconometric and empirical macro growth literatures on the effect of schooling on income and GDP growth. Much microeconometric evidence suggest that education is an important causal determinant of income for individuals within countries. At a national level, however, recent studies have found that increases in educational attainment are unrelated to economic growth. This finding appears to be a spurious result of the extremely high rate of measurement error in first-differenced cross-country education data. After accounting for measurement error, the effect of changes in educational attainment on income growth in cross-country data is at least as great as microeconometric estimates of the rate of return to years of schooling. Another finding of the macro growth literature - that economic growth depends positively on the initial stock of human capital - is shown to result from imposing linearity and constant-coefficient assumptions on the estimates. These restrictions are often rejected by the data, and once either assumption is relaxed the initial level of education has little effect on economic growth for the average country.
Опубликовано на портале: 15-11-2004Geert Bekaert, Campbell R. Harvey, Christian Lundblad NBER Working Paper Series. 2000. w7763.
We provide an analysis of real economic growth prospects in emerging markets after financial liberalizations. In contrast with previous research, we identify the financial liberalization dates and examine the influence of liberalizations while controlling for a number of other macroeconomic and financial variables. Our work also introduces an econometric methodology that allows us to use extensive time-series as well as cross-sectional information for our tests. We find across a number of different specifications that financial liberalizations are associated with significant increases in real economic growth.
Опубликовано на портале: 26-10-2004Shankha Chakraborty UO Economics Department Working Papers. 2002.
Conventional wisdom attributes the severity of mortality in poorer countries to widespread poverty and inadequate living conditions. This paper considers the possibility that persistent poverty may arise, in turn, from a high incidence of mortality. Endogenous mortality risk is introduced in a two-period overlapping generations model: probability of survival from the first period to the next depends upon health capital that can be augmented through public investment. High mortality societies do not grow fast since shorter lifespans discourage saving and investment; multiple steady-states are possible. High mortality also reduces returns on investments, like education, where risks are undiversifiable. When human capital drives economic growth, countries differing in only health capital do not converge to similar living standards; 'threshold effects' may also result.