Всего статей в данном разделе : 43
A Cure Worse Than the Disease? Currency Crises and the Output Costs of IMF-Supported Stabilization Programs [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 15-11-2004Michael M. Hutchison NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. w8305.
This paper investigates the output effects of IMF-supported stabilization programs, especially those introduced at the time of a severe balance of payments/currency crisis. Using a panel data set over the 1975-97 period and covering 67 developing and emerging-market economies (with 461 IMF stabilization programs and 160 currency crises), we find that currency crises even after controlling for macroeconomic developments, political and regional factors significantly reduce output growth for 1-2 years. Output growth is also lower (0.7 percentage points annually) during IMF-stabilization programs, but it appears that growth generally slows prior to implementation of the program. Moreover, programs coinciding with recent balance of payments or currency crises do not appear to further damage short-run growth prospects. Countries participating in IMF programs significantly reduce domestic credit growth, but no effect is found on budget policy. Applying this model to the collapse of output in East Asia following the 1997 crisis, we find that the unexpected (forecast error) collapse of output in Malaysia where an IMF-program was not followed-- was similar in magnitude to those countries adopting IMF programs (Indonesia, Korea, Philippines and Thailand).
Опубликовано на портале: 11-11-2004Ricardo J. Caballero, Arvind Krishnamurthy NBER Working Paper Series. 2002. w8758.
The last few years have seen a significant re-evaluation of the models used to analyze crises in emerging markets. Recent models typically stress financial constraints or distorted financial incentives. While this certainly represents progress, these models share a weakness with the earlier work: neither is uniquely about emerging markets. Adaptations of the Mundell-Fleming model represent Argentina as a Belgium with larger external shocks. Likewise, emerging market models of financial constraints are adaptations of developed economy ones with tighter financial constraints. In our work, we have advocated a model which distinguishes between the financial constraints affecting borrowing and lending among agents within an emerging economy, and those affecting borrowing from foreign lenders. This 'dual liquidity' model offers a parsimonious description of the behavior of firms, governments, and asset prices during financial crises. It also provides prescriptions for optimal policy responses to these crises.
Опубликовано на портале: 11-11-2004Sebastian Edwards NBER Working Paper Series. 1998. w6800.
This paper deals with some of the most important aspects of Latin America's experience with capital flows during the last twenty-five years. The paper begins with a historical analysis. I then deal with the sequencing of reform and discuss issues related to the relationship between capital flows, real exchange rates, and international competitiveness. I next concentrate on the role of capital controls as a device for isolating emerging economies from the volatility of international capital markets. I begin by reviewing the policy issues and the current debate on the subject. I then present an empirical analysis of Chile's recent experiences with capital controls and make some comparisons to the recent experiences of Columbia. The analysis of the Chilean experience is particularly important since its practice of imposing reserves requirements on capital inflows has been praised by a number of analysts, including senior staff of the multilateral institutions, as an effective and efficient way of reducing the vulnerability associated with capital flows volatility. The results obtained suggest that capital controls in Chile have had mixed results: while they have allowed the Central Bank to have a greater degree of control over short term interest rates, they have failed in avoiding real exchange rate appreciation. The paper ends with some reflections, based on recent Latin American historical episodes, on the role of banks in intermediating capital inflows and on financial crises.
Central Bank Independence, Accountability and Transparency: Complements or Strategic Substitutes? [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 26-10-2007Andrew Hughes Hallett, Jan Libich CEPR Discussion Papers. 2006. No. 5470.
The paper incorporates three institutional design features into a Kydland-Prescott, Barro-Gordon monetary policy game. It shows that goal independence and goal transparency (an explicit inflation target) at the central bank are substitute ‘commitment technologies’ that reduce inflation and build credibility. In addition, goal-transparency is shown to be socially superior as it also lowers public’s monitoring cost. Nevertheless, independent central bankers are less likely to embrace it if they perceive public scrutiny (accountability) as intrusive. Combining these findings implies that both goal-transparency and accountability will be negatively related to goal-independence for which we present empirical support using established indices. Our analysis further suggests that, to avoid an inferior equilibrium with opaque objectives and a ‘democratic deficit’, institutional reforms should follow the Bank of England scenario, in which an explicit inflation target is first legislated and only then instrument (but not goal) independence granted.
Consumer Response to Tax Rebates [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 18-09-2003Matthew D. Shapiro, Joel Slemrod
Many households received income tax rebates in 2001 of $300 or $600. These rebates represented advance payments of the tax cut from the new 10 percent tax bracket. Based on a survey of a representative sample of households, this paper finds that only 22 percent of households receiving the rebate would spent it. Instead, they would either save it or use it to pay off debt. This very low rate of spending represents a striking break with past behavior, which would have suggested a much higher rate of spending. The low spending rate implies that the tax rebate provided a very limited stimulus to aggregate demand.
Опубликовано на портале: 14-03-2005Ricardo J. Caballero, Mohamad L. Hammour NBER Working Paper Series. 2000. No. 7849.
There is increasing empirical evidence that creative destruction, driven by experimentation and the adoption of new products and processes when investment is sunk, is a core mechanism of development. Obstacles to this process are likely to be obstacles to the progress in standards of living. Generically, underdeveloped and politicized institutions are a major impediment to a well-functioning creative destruction process, and result in sluggish creation, technological sclerosis,' and spurious reallocation. Those ills reflect the macroeconomic consequences of contracting failures in the presence of sunk investments. Recurrent crises are another major obstacle to creative destruction. The common inference that increased liquidations during crises result in increased restructuring is unwarranted. Indications are, to the contrary, that crises freeze the restructuring process and that this is associated with the tight financial-market conditions that follow. This productivity cost of recessions adds to the traditional costs of resource under-utilization.
Опубликовано на портале: 11-11-2004Sebastian Edwards NBER Working Paper Series. 2002. w8939.
In this paper I analyze the relationship between fiscal policy, aggregate public sector debt sustainability, and debt relief. I develop a methodology to compute the fiscal policy path that is compatible with aggregate debt sustainability in the post-HIPC era. The model explicitly considers the role of domestic debt, and quantifies the extent to which future debt sustainability depends on the availability of concessional loans at subsidized interest rates. The working of the model is illustrated for the case of Nicaragua, a country that in 2002 had one of the highest net present value of public external debt to GDP ratios.
Debt Restructuring [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 11-11-2004Benjamin M. Friedman NBER Working Paper Series. 2000. w7722.
What difference does it make, and for whom, whether the nonperforming debts of emerging market borrowers are restructured? This paper begins by positing a set of counterfactual conditions under which restructuring would not matter, and then shows how several ways in which the actual world of international lending departs from these conditions give both lenders and borrowers ample reason to care whether nonperforming debts are restructured. One implication of the way in which debt restructuring matters is that restructuring should not be too' easy. Further, with a greater frequency of defaults, some credit flows to emerging market countries would not be extended in the first place. An important element driving this line of argument is moral hazard, but (unlike in much of the recent literature of emerging market debt problems) what is central here is not the availability of credit from the IMF or other official lenders but the more fundamental moral hazard inherent in all uncollateralized borrower-lender relationships.
Опубликовано на портале: 16-11-2004Geert Bekaert, Campbell R. Harvey, Christian Lundblad NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. w8245.
We show that equity market liberalizations, on average, lead to a one percent increase in annual real economic growth over a five-year period. The liberalization effect is not spuriously accounted for by macro-economic reforms and does not reflect a business cycle effect. Although financial liberalizations further financial development, measures of financial development fail to fully drive out the liberalization effect. The investment/GDP ratio increases post liberalization, with the investment partially financed by foreign capital inducing worsened trade balances. Differentiating across liberalizing countries, a large secondary school enrollment, a small government sector and an Anglo-Saxon legal system tend to enhance the liberalization effect. Finally, the conditional convergence effect is larger once financial liberalization is accounted for.
Опубликовано на портале: 11-08-2004Olivier Jean Blanchard, Philippe Weil NBER Working Paper Series. 1992. w3992.
Can government roll their debt over in dynamically efficient economies, and thus avoid the need to raise taxes? While the answer is a clear "no" under certainty, it depends, under uncertainty, on whether public debt provides intergenerational insurance. When it does not, rollover is not possible, even if the rate of return on one-period bonds is below the growth rate. When it does, debt rollover may be possible if the return on one-period bonds is above the growth rate.
Опубликовано на портале: 11-11-2004Sebastian Edwards, Miguel A. Savastano NBER Working Paper Series. 1999. w7228.
Exchange rates have been at the center of economic debates in emerging economies. Issues related to the feasibility of flexible exchange rates, the relationship between exchange rate volatility and growth, and the role of exchange rate overvaluation in recent crises, among other, have been extensively discussed during the last few years. In this paper we address some of the most important exchange rate-related issues in emerging economies. In particular, we deal with: (a) the merits of alternative exchange rate regimes: (b) the extent to which purchasing power parity holds in the long run in these countries; and (c) models to assess real exchange rate overvaluation. We also discuss future areas for research on exchange rates in the emerging nations.
Опубликовано на портале: 14-03-2005Stephen G. Cecchetti, Stefan Krause NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. No. 8354.
Over the past twenty years, macroeconomic performance has improved markedly in industrialized and developing countries alike. Both inflation and real growth are more stable now than they were in the 1980s. This stability has been accompanied by dramatic changes in financial structure. We examine the connection between these concurrent events using data from 23 developed and emerging markets countries. There are a number of possible explanations for the widespread improvement in economic outcomes over the past two decades. There is the very real possibility that the world has become a more stable place. Alternatively, monetary policymakers may have become more skillful in carry out their stabilization objectives. That is, the monetary policy of the 1990s may have been more efficient than it was in the 1980s. We provide evidence that policy has in fact improved, suggesting that a rise in the competence of central bankers. But the ability of policymakers to carry out their job depends crucially on their having the tools necessary to reduce inflation and output volatility. The transmission of these interest rate movements to domestic output and prices depends on the structure of the country's banking system and financial markets. We show that a reduction in direct state ownership of banking system assets and the introduction of explicit deposit insurance can help explain the simultaneous improvement in the efficiency of monetary policy and stabilization of the macroeconomy.
Опубликовано на портале: 25-08-2003Alberto Alesina, Roberto Perotti
This paper studies how the composition of fiscal adjustments influences their likelihood of success, defined as a long lasting deficit reduction, and their macroeconomic consequences. We find that fiscal adjustments which rely primarily on spending cuts on transfers and the government wage bill have a better chance of being successful and are expansionary. On the contrary fiscal adjustments which rely primarily on tax increases and cuts in public investment tend not to last and are contractionary. We discuss alternate explanations for these findings by studying both a full sample of OECD countries and by focusing on three case studies: Denmark, Ireland and Italy.
Опубликовано на портале: 25-10-2007Giovanni Di Bartolomeo, Debora Di Gioacchino Working Paper (University of Rome "La Sapienza"). 2004. No. 74.
This paper studies the interaction between two autonomous policymakers, the central bank and the government, in managing public debt as the result of a two-stage game. In the first stage the institutional regime is established. This determines the equilibrium solution to be applied in the second stage, in which a differential game is played between the two policymakers. It is shown that, if the policymakers can communicate before the game is played, (multiple-equilibrium) coordination problems can be solved by using the concept of correlated equilibrium. Unlike Nash equilibrium, which only allows for individualistic and independent behavior, a correlated equilibrium allows for the players’ behavior to be coordinated and correlated.
Опубликовано на портале: 18-08-2004William Easterly, Sergio Rebelo NBER Working Paper Series. 1994. w4499.
This paper describes the empirical regularities relating fiscal policy variables, the level of development and the rate of growth. We employ historical data, recent cross-section data, and newly constructed public investment series. Our main findings are: (i) there is a strong association between the development level and the fiscal structure: poor countries rely heavily on international trade taxes, while income taxes are only important in developed economies; (ii) fiscal policy is influenced by the scale of the economy, measured by its population; (iii) investment in transport and communication is consistently correlated with growth while the effects of taxation are difficult to isolate empirically.