Статьи
Всего статей в данном разделе : 7
Опубликовано на портале: 03-12-2007
Michael Grimm, Kenneth Harttgen, Stephan Klasen, Mark Misselhorn
University of G¨ottingen, Department of Economics: Research Paper.
2007.
One of the most frequent critiques of the HDI is that is does not take into account
inequality within countries. We suggest a relatively easy and intuitive approach
which allows to compute the three components and the overall HDI for quintiles of
the income distribution. This allows comparisons of the level in human development
of the poor and non-poor within and across countries. An empirical illustration shows
large discrepancies in human development within countries especially in Africa. These
discrepancies are lower the higher the HDI, but only weekly so. Inequality in income
is generally higher than inequality in education and life-expectancy.
Опубликовано на портале: 15-11-2004
Peter L. Rousseau, Richard Sylla
NBER Working Paper Series.
2001.
w8323.
This paper brings together two strands of the economic literature -- that on the
finance-growth nexus and that on capital market integration -- and explores key issues
surrounding each strand through both institutional/country histories and formal quantitative
analysis. We begin with studies of the Dutch Republic, England, the U.S., France,
Germany and Japan that span three centuries, detailing how in each case the emergence
of a financial system jump-started economic growth. Using a cross-country panel of
seventeen countries covering the 1850-1997 period, we then uncover a robust correlation
between financial factors and economic growth that is consistent with a leading role
for finance, and show that these effects were strongest over the 80 years preceding
the Great Depression. Next, we show that countries with more sophisticated financial
systems engage in more trade and appear to be better integrated with other economies
by identifying roles for both finance and trade in the convergence of interest rates
that occurred among the Atlantic economies prior to 1914. Our results suggest that
the growth and increasing globalization of these economies might indeed have been
'finance-led.'
Опубликовано на портале: 24-12-2007
Michael Grimm, Stephan Klasen
Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Güttingen 2007.
2007.
No. 9.
There is well-known debate about the respective role of geography versus institutions
in explaining the long term development of countries. These debates have usually
been based on cross country regressions where questions about parameter heterogeneity,
unobserved heterogeneity, and endogeneity cannot easily be controlled for. The innovation
of Acemoglu, Johnson and Robinson (2001) was to address this last point by using
settler morality as an instrument for endegenous institutions and found that this
supported their line of reasoning. We believe there is value-added to consider this
debate at the micro level within a country as particularly questions of parameter
heterogeneity and unobserved heterogeneity are likely to be smaller than between
countries. Hence, we examine the determinants of agricultural growth across villages
on the Indonesian Island of Sulawesi and find technology adoption to play a crucial
role. We show that geography through its effects on migration and institutions is
a valid instrument to establish the causal links between institutions and technology
adoption as well as technology and agricultural growth.
Опубликовано на портале: 27-10-2004
Basil M. H. Sharp
Treasury Working Papers.
2002.
No. 02/20.
Economic theory provides a coherent framework for analysing the elements of growth
and sustainable development. Robust policies and appropriate institutional structures
are essential to achieving sustainable development. Environmental problems are rooted
in failed markets and their resolution requires government taking some kind of action
– to establish property rights, set standards of liability, apply polluter pays
taxes, or regulate. There is ample evidence showing that market based instruments
can achieve the same environmental outcome at considerably less cost relative to
command and control. Rational policy must seriously consider the use of market-based
instruments. A framework for considering the quality of institutional structures
vis-à-vis achieving sustainable development is presented. The framework is applied
to aspects of the Resource Management Act 1991. Although the Act aims to promote
sustainable management it is the primary legal foundation for sustainable development
policy. One result of the Act was to devolve a great deal of environmental management
and policy to local government. To a limited extent the Act is permissive and creates
opportunities for local and regional government to find effective and efficient ways
of achieving environmental outcomes that suit their communities. There is a clear
preference for command and control in situations where statute provides a legal framework
for market based instruments. But the options for using market-based instruments
are limited. There are instances where attempts by regional administrators to implement
market-based instruments are thwarted either by statute or by coordination difficulties
at higher levels of government. Barriers to using market-based instruments are identified
along with suggestions for institutional reform.
Опубликовано на портале: 03-12-2007
Lev Ratnovski, Aditya Narain
IMF ,Working Paper.
2007.
No. 07/227.
While public financial institutions (such as public development banks) are commonly
associated with developing countries, in fact they are prevalent in the developed
world as well. We study a sample of public financial institutions in industrialized
countries and identify dominant trends in their organization and oversight. While
practices in developed countries may be a useful reference point, a more nuanced
approach, accounting for the disparity of institutional environment, regulatory capacity,
and government accountability and effectiveness, may be required in developing countries.
Further investment in the accumulation of evidence and formulation of best practices
in the organization and oversight of public financial institutions seems warranted
and necessary. This paper was prepared while Mr. Ratnovski was working in the Financial
Supervision and Regulation Division during January-April 2006. The authors are grateful
to Jonathan Fiechter, David Marston, and participants of an MCM seminar in April
2006 for their helpful comments.
Опубликовано на портале: 15-11-2004
Louis K.C. Chan, Jason Karceski, Josef Lakonishok
NBER Working Paper Series.
2001.
w8282.
Expected long-term earnings growth rates are crucial inputs to valuation models and
for cost of capital estimates. We analyze historical long-term growth rates across
a broad cross-section of stocks using several operating performance indicators. We
test whether growth persists, and whether it is forecastable. Cases of very high
growth have occurred, but are relatively rare. There is scant persistence in growth
beyond chance, and limited ability to identify firms with high future long- term
growth. IBES forecasts are too optimistic, and have low predictive power for long-term
growth. Regressions using a variety of predictors confirm the low predictability
in growth. Valuations that assume persistently high growth over prolonged periods
rest on shaky foundations.
Опубликовано на портале: 16-03-2005
Игорь Геннадьевич Муравьев
В работе исследуется отклик открытой экономики на внезапный подъем мировых цен ,
экспортируемого данной страной природного ресурса . В рамках стандартной трехсекторной
модели и в предположении сбалансированности внешней торговли приводится анализ изменения
уровня цен и общего выпуска экономики . В работе предлагается две модели для изучения
отклика экономики на положительный шок в ресурсном секторе . Первая модель построена
на предположениях о мгновенном изменении цен и абсолютной мобильности рабочей силы.
В рамках второй модели предполагается, что факторы производства фиксированы и цены
на услуги медленно меняются. Обе модели дают возможность проанализировать случаи
как фиксированного так и плавающего обменных курсов. Основным отличием данной работы
от классического подхода в этом направлении является принятие в рассмотрение реальных
кассовых остатков в производственных функциях. Показано, что если выпуск ресурсного
сектора выступает как экзогенный параметр модели, то выпуск производства в новом
равновесии однозначно уменьшается после внезапного увеличения мировых цен на экспортируемый
ресурс. При этом изменение номинальных переменных – обменного курса и цен на
услуги – может иметь довольно сложный характер и, в частности, зависит от выбора
индекса цен. В работе также исследуется влияние изменения объема денежной массы на
поведение цен и выпусков товаров.
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