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Экономика развития - это отрасль экономического знания о проблемах развития и экономиках тех стран, которые принято называть развивающимися, или странами третьего мира. (подробнее...)

NBER Working Paper Series

Выпуск Nw8282 за 2001 год

Опубликовано на портале: 15-11-2004
Louis K.C. Chan, Jason Karceski, Josef Lakonishok NBER Working Paper Series. 2001.  w8282.
Expected long-term earnings growth rates are crucial inputs to valuation models and for cost of capital estimates. We analyze historical long-term growth rates across a broad cross-section of stocks using several operating performance indicators. We test whether growth persists, and whether it is forecastable. Cases of very high growth have occurred, but are relatively rare. There is scant persistence in growth beyond chance, and limited ability to identify firms with high future long- term growth. IBES forecasts are too optimistic, and have low predictive power for long-term growth. Regressions using a variety of predictors confirm the low predictability in growth. Valuations that assume persistently high growth over prolonged periods rest on shaky foundations.
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