Всего статей в данном разделе : 91
A Century of Missing Trade? [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003Antoni Estevadeordal, Alan M. Taylor NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. w8301.
In contemporary data, the measured factor content of trade is far smaller than its predicted magnitude in the pure Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek framework, the so-called 'missing trade' mystery. Authors wonder if this problem has been there from the beginning: that is, authors ask if the Heckscher-Ohlin theory was so much at odds with reality at its time of conception. Authors apply contemporary tests to historical data, focusing on the major trading zone that inspired the factor abundance theory, the Old and New Worlds of the pre-1914 'Greater Atlantic' economy. This places autor's analysis in a very different context than contemporary studies: an era with lower trade barriers, higher transport costs, a more skewed global distribution of the relevant factors (especially land), and comparably large productivity divergence. These conditions might seem more favorable to the theory, but the results are still very poor.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003Robert E. Lipsey NBER Working Paper Series. 1999. No. 7292.
Since 1977, and in some cases starting before that, most East Asian countries’ export patterns in manufacturing have been transformed from industry distributions typical of developing countries to distributions more like those of advanced countries. The process of change in most cases started with inward FDI to produce for export in the new industries, particularly by U.S. firms in electronics and computer-related machinery. The U.S. firms were followed, in electronics, by Japanese multinationals. Over time, in most cases, the U.S.-owned affiliates turned more to sales in host-country market and their share in host country exports declined, although the host countries’ specializations in the new industries continued. U.S. and Japanese firms played somewhat different roles. U.S. firms’ investments were always distributed more along the lines of U.S. export comparative advantage, far from the previous patterns of the host countries. The industry distribution of Japanese investments initially followed more the lines of the host countries’ comparative advantage and Japanese affiliates were less export-oriented than U.S. affiliates. However, Japanese affiliates have become more like U.S. affiliates in both export orientation and industry composition. Their early concentration in textiles and apparel faded and they are more heavily concentrated than U.S. affiliates and more export-oriented in both electrical machinery and transport equipment.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003Andrew K. Rose, Mark M. Spiegel NBER Working Paper Series. 2002. w9285.
One reason why countries service their external debts is the fear that default might lead to shrinkage of international trade. If so, then creditors should systematically lend more to countries with which they share closer trade links. Autors develop a simple theoretical model to capture this intuition, then test and corroborate this idea.
Опубликовано на портале: 24-12-2003Douglas A. Irwin, Nina Pavcnik NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. w8648.
This paper examines international competition in the commercial aircraft industry. We estimate a discrete choice, differentiated products demand system for wide-body aircraft and examine the Airbus-Boeing rivalry under various assumptions on firm conduct. We then use this structure to evaluate two trade disputes between the United States and European Union. Our results suggest that the aircraft prices increased by about 3 percent after the 1992 U.S. -- E.U. agreement on trade in civil aircraft that limits subsidies. This price hike is consistent with a 7.5 percent increase in firms' marginal costs after the subsidy cuts. We also simulate the impact of the future entry of the Airbus A-380 super-jumbo aircraft on the demand for other wide-bodied aircraft, notably the Boeing 747. We find that the A-380 could reduce the market share of the 747 by up to 14 percent in the long range wide-body market segment (depending upon the discounts offered on the A-380), but would reduce the market for Airbus's existing wide-bodies by an even greater margin.
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003Edward E. Leamer NBER Working Paper Series. 1994. w4753.
A free trade agreement supports global free trade since trade barriers tend to divert trade in favor of members, but not reduce imports. The term: 'mutual assured deterrence' is used to refer to a regional free trade association that has the feature that no member can gain individually from the imposition of a barrier against a non- member. Mutual assured deterrence is shown to be possible for a surprisingly rich set of partners. A customs union is compatible with global free trade if the vast majority of trade takes place naturally within the confines of the association. A customs union that is likely to have this property would combine countries to form a nearly exact economic replica of the globe. The economic combination of Mexico and the United States doesn't form a replica of the global economy because, compared with Asia, North America has relatively high capital per worker even after adding the Mexican workforce. However, NAFTA does seem to have the property of mutual assured deterrence, and may for that reason amount to a commitment to global free trade as well as regional free trade.
Опубликовано на портале: 16-12-2003Valerie Cerra, Sweta C. Saxena IMF Working Paper Series. 2002. No. 02/200 .
This paper studies the behavior of China's exports from the mid-1980s through 2001. Extensive quarterly data on values and quantities of major export products have been taken from Chinese customs statistics to form a panel data set. The data are used to estimate export supply price elasticities, including by industry groups. The extensive product level data permits the use of panel estimation techniques in order to increase the power of the testing methodology. Aggregate quarterly export unit price indices are also constructed and thereby provide an input to future research on China's trade.
Опубликовано на портале: 16-12-2003Carsten Fink, Aaditya Mattoo, Ileana Cristina Neagu World Bank Policy Research Working Papers. 2002. No. 2929.
Recent research suggests that trade costs have a strong influence on the pattern of specialization and trade, but there is limited empirical research on the determinants of trade costs. The existing literature identifies a range of barriers that separate nations, but then typically focuses only on transport costs. Although communication costs figure prominently in intuitive explanations and casual observations, they have played little role in the formal analysis of trade costs. Fink, Mattoo, and Neagu seek to examine whether this neglect matters, and whether the inclusion of the magnitude and variation of communication costs across partner countries can add value to existing explanations of the pattern of trade. The authors develop a simple multi-sector model of “impeded” trade that generates testable hypotheses in a gravity-type estimation framework. The main proxies for bilateral communication costs are the per-minute country-to-country calling prices charged in the importing and exporting countries. The use of bilateral variations in prices yields estimates that are superior to the ones obtained from country-specific measures of communication infrastructure used in previous studies. The authors find that international variations in communication costs indeed have a significant influence on bilateral trade flows—both at the aggregate level and for most individual sectors disaggregated according to the 2-digit SITC classification. Since information and communication needs are likely to be much greater for differentiated goods, the authors test whether trade in these products is more sensitive to variations in the costs of communication. Using the Rauch classification of product heterogeneity, the estimates suggest that the impact of communication costs on trade in differentiated products is as much as one-third larger than on trade in homogenous products. Finally, the authors verify, to the extent possible, that the significance of communication costs is not driven by their endogeneity or by omitted variables.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003Philippe Bacchetta, Eric van Wincoop NBER Working Paper Series. 2002. w9039.
Nominal rigidities due to menu costs have become a standard element in closed economy macroeconomic modeling. The "New Open Economy Macroeconomics" literature has investigated the implications of nominal rigidities in an open economy context and found that the currency in which prices are set has significant implications for exchange rate pass-through to import prices, the level of trade and net capital flows, and optimal monetary and exchange rate policy. While the literature has exogenously assumed in which currencies goods are priced, in this paper autors solve for the equilibrium optimal pricing strategies of firms. Autors find that the higher the market share of an exporting country in an industry, and the more differentiated its goods, the more likely its exporters will price in the exporter's currency. Country size and the cyclicality of real wages play a role as well, but are empirically less important. Autors also show that when a set of countries forms a monetary union, the new currency is likely to be used more extensively in trade than the sum of the currencies it replaces.
Borders, Trade and Welfare [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003James Anderson, Eric van Wincoop NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. w8515.
International economic integration yields large potential welfare effects, even in a static constant returns competitive world economy. Our method is novel. The effect of border barriers on trade flows is often inferred from gravity models. But their rather atheoretic structure precludes welfare analysis. Computable general equilibrium models are designed for tight welfare analysis, but lack econometric foundation. Our method combines these approaches. Gravity models based on Anderson's (1979) interpretation are full general equilibrium models of a special simple sort. In Anderson and van Wincoop (NBER WP 8079, 2001) we develop and estimate this structure, then calculate the comparative static effects on trade flows of border barriers. In this paper we further deploy the model to explore the comparative statics of welfare with respect to borders, to currency unions and to NAFTA. Our NAFTA exercise does a much better job of replicating the actual trade flow changes than do computable general equilibrium models. An interesting implication is that terms of trade changes are very important, even for small' countries such as Mexico.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003Huiwen Lai, Daniel Trefler NBER Working Paper Series. 2002. w9169.
The difficulty of incorporating general equilibrium price effects into econometric estimating equations has deterred most researchers from econometrically estimating the welfare gains from trade liberalization. Using a paired-down CES monopolistic competition example, autors show that this difficulty has been greatly exaggerated. Along the way, we estimate indeed precisely estimate large welfare gains from trade liberalization as measured by compensating variation. Unlike calibration methods, econometric methods allow researchers to isolate the violence done by the model to the data. Autors find that the CES monopolistic competition model horribly mis-specifies behavioural price elasticities and general equilibrium price feedbacks. The model as conceived is therefore of limited value for analysing the effects of trade liberalization. Autors report a number of specification issues that should point the way to better theoretical modeling.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003Lorenzo Giorgianni, Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti IMF Working Paper Series. 1997. No. 97/54 .
A distinguishing feature of the strong economic performance enjoyed by Korea and other newly industrializing Asian economies has been the rapid growth of export and import flows. In recent years, the growing weight of East Asian countries in the world economy and their increasing trade integration have been accompanied by a substantial change in the geographical destination of Korea's exports. While growth in Korean exports to member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has slowed down considerably, exports to other East Asian countries have boomed. This paper examines the extent to which the Korean experience can be explained within traditional trade models. It provides evidence on how exports and imports react to changes in relative prices and in foreign and domestic demand, and investigates the determinants of the direction of Korean exports. Two important issues are dealt with differently from previous studies. First, in light of the high weight of raw materials and capital goods in Korea's imports, the hypothesis that investment expenditure is the most important explanatory variable for import demand is examined. Second, export demand and supply elasticities are obtained by estimating a simultaneous structural model in which the long- and short-run dynamic properties of the data are fully specified. Estimation results indicate that real consumption and investment are important determinants of aggregate imports in Korea and that a specification that employs aggregate expenditure implicitly underestimates the relative importance of investment. The demand for Korean exports exhibits high elasticity with respect to foreign income and relative export prices. The decline in the share of exports to industrial countries is linked not only to the decline in the relative importance of OECD countries in world trade, but also to the increased penetration of industrial countries. markets by other Asian developing countries.
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003Reuven Glick, Andrew K. Rose NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. w8396.
Does leaving a currency union reduce international trade? We answer this question using a large annual panel data set covering 217 countries from 1948 through 1997. During this sample a large number of countries left currency unions; they experienced economically and statistically significant declines in bilateral trade, after accounting for other factors. Assuming symmetry, we estimate that a pair of countries that starts to use a common currency experiences a doubling in bilateral trade.
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003Donald R. Davis, David E. Weinstein NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. w8516.
The dominant paradigm of world trade patterns posits two principal features. Trade between North and South arises due to traditional comparative advantage, largely determined by differences in endowment patterns. Trade within the North, much of it intra-industry trade, is based on economies of scale and product differentiation. The paradigm specifically denies an important role for endowment differences in determining North-North trade. This paper provides the first sound empirical examination of this question. We demonstrate that trade in factor services among countries of the North is systematically related to endowment differences and large in economic magnitude. Intra-industry trade, rather than being a puzzle for a factor endowments theory, is instead the conduit for a great deal of this factor service trade.
Do Rich and Poor Countries Specialize in a Different Mix of Goods? Evidence from Product-Level US Trade Data [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003Peter K. Schott NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. w8492.
Unit values of US imports at the product level reveal a substantial degree of vertical product differentiation among countries exporting to the US. This specialization is not apparent by looking solely at trade flows. Two trends stand out. First, the portion of US import products originating in either rich or poor countries exclusively has fallen dramatically as US trade barriers have fallen, from 41% in 1972 to 17% in 1994. Indeed, by 1994, nearly three quarters the products imported into the US were sourced simultaneously from rich and poor countries. Second, within-product unit value dispersion is positively and significantly correlated with source country income: men's shirts imported from Japan in 1994, for example, are about thirty times as expensive as shirts originating in the Philippines. These unit value premia, and their increase over time, are consistent with the factor proportions framework but convey a stark warning: industry trade flow data alone are too coarse to meet the assumptions underlying most tests of trade theory.
Опубликовано на портале: 16-12-2003Jeffrey J. Reimer World Bank Policy Research Working Papers. 2002. No. 2790.
As a new round of World Trade Organization negotiations is being launched with greater emphasis on developing country participation, a body of literature is emerging which quantifies how international trade affects the poor in developing countries. In this survey of the literature, Reimer summarizes and classifies 35 trade and poverty studies into four methodological categories: cross-country regression, partial-equilibrium and cost-of-living analysis, general-equilibrium simulation, and micro-macro synthesis. These categories include a broad range of methodologies in current use. The continuum of approaches is bounded on one end by econometric analysis of household expenditure data, which is the traditional domain of poverty specialists, and sometimes labeled the “bottom-up” approach. On the other end of the continuum are computable general equilibrium models based on national accounts data, or what might be called the “top-down” approach. Another feature of several recent trade and poverty studies—and one of the primary conclusions to emerge from the October 2000 “Conference on Poverty and the International Economy” sponsored by Globkom and the World Bank—is the recognition that factor markets are perhaps the most important link between trade and poverty, since households tend to be much more specialized in income than they are in consumption. Meanwhile, survey data on the income sources of developing-country households has become increasingly available. As a result, this survey gives particular emphasis to the means by which studies address factor market links between trade and poverty. The general conclusion of Reimer’s survey is that any analysis of trade and poverty needs to be informed by both the bottom-up and top-down perspectives. Indeed, recent “two-step” micro-macro studies sequentially link these two types of frameworks, such that general equilibrium mechanisms are incorporated along with detailed household survey information. Another methodology in a similar spirit and also increasingly used involves incorporating large numbers of surveyed households into a general-equilibrium simulation model. Although most of these studies have so far been limited to a single region, these approaches can be readily adapted for multi-region modeling so that trade and poverty comparisons can be made across countries within a consistent framework.