Всего статей в данном разделе : 10
Опубликовано на портале: 22-06-2006Joseph A. Cherian, Robert A. Jarrow, Eric Jaoquier
The convenience yield differential between on- and off-the-run Treasury securities with identical maturities has two components. A non-cyclical component may arise due to the higher illiquidity of off-the-run bonds. Also, trading in the market for the next issue often causes cyclical shortages of the on-the-runs. When this occurs, owners of the on-the-run bond can earn riskless profits by borrowing money at the special repo rate and lending money at the prevailing risk free market rate. This second component of the convenience yield, induced by the auction, is cyclical. Autors first show that special repo rates and the convenience yield are jointly cyclical over the auction cycle. The patterns are statistically significant and pervasive across bonds and auctions. Repo specials are highest around the announcement date and disappear by the issue date. The off-minus on-the-run yield spread is highest at the beginning of the cycle and collapses near its end. This is consistent with a decreasing present value of profits over a decreasing horizon. We then develop a no-arbitrage continuous-time model, with stochastic interest and special repo rates, that prices the on-the-run bonds that command this convenience yield. A simple implementation of the model generates yields consistent with the evidence.
Опубликовано на портале: 16-04-2007Ricardo P. C. Leal, Andre L. Carvalhal-da-Silva SSRN Working Papers. 2005.
We construct a corporate governance practices index (CGI) from a set of 24 questions that can be objectively answered from publicly available information. Our goal was to measure the overall quality of corporate governance practices of the largest possible number of firms without the biases and low response ratios typical of qualitative surveys. CGI levels have improved over time in Brazil. CGI components demonstrate that Brazilian firms perform much better in disclosure than in other aspects of corporate governance. We find very high concentration levels of voting rights leveraged by the widespread use of indirect control structures and non-voting shares. Control has concentrated between 1998 and 2002. We do not find evidence for either entrenchment or incentives in Brazil using ownership percentages but find that the separation of control from cash flow rights destroys value. The CGI maintains a positive, significant, and robust relationship with corporate value. A worst-to-best improvement in the CGI in 2002 would lead to a .38 increase in Tobin's q. This represents a 95% rise in the stock value of a company with the average leverage and Tobin's q ratios. Considering our lowest CGI coefficient, a one point increase in the CGI score would lead to a 6.8% rise in the stock price of the average firm in 2002. We found no significant relationship between governance and the dividend payout but there are indications that dividend payments are greater when control and cash flow rights concentration are greater. We place our results in context by offering a comparative analysis with Chile. We would offer a sound "yes" if asked whether good corporate governance practices increase corporate value in Brazil.
Day of the Week Effect and Market Efficiency - Evidence from Indian Equity Market Using High Frequency Data of National Stock Exchange [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 22-10-2007Manoj Dalvi, Golaka C. Nath
New Facts in Finance [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 02-10-2003John H. Cochrane Economics Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. 1999. Vol. 23. No. 3. P. 36-58.
The last 15 years have seen a revolution in the way financial economists understand the world around us. We once thought that stock and bond returns were essentially unpredictable. Now we recognize that stock and bond returns have a substantial predictable component at long horizons. We once thought the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) provided a good description of why average returns on some stocks, portfolios, funds or strategies were higher than others. Now we recognize that the average returns of many investment opportunities cannot be explained by the CAPM, and multifactor models' have supplanted the CAPM to explain them. We once thought that long-term interest rates reflected expectations of future short term rates and that interest rate differentials across countries reflected expectations of exchange-rate depreciation. Now, we see time-varying risk premia in bond and foreign exchange markets as well as in stock markets. Once, we thought that mutual fund average returns were well explained by the CAPM. Now, we recognize ``value'' and other high return strategies in funds, and slight persistence in fund performance. In this article, I survey these new facts. I show how they are related. Each case uses price variables to infer market expectations of future returns; each case notices that an offsetting adjustment (to dividends, interest rates, or exchange rates) seems to be absent or sluggish. Each case suggests that financial markets offer rewards in the form of average returns for holding risks related to recessions and financial distress, in addition to the risks represented by overall market movements.
Stock Index Autocorrelation and Cross-Autocorrelations of Size-Sorted Portfolios in the Japanese Market [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 03-11-2007Iwaisako Tokuo Discussion Paper Series of Hitotsubashi University. 2007.
Following Lo and MacKinlay's work on the U.S. market (1988, 1990), this paper investigates the autocorrelation of the market index and the cross-autocorrelations of size-sorted portfolios in the Japanese market. The structure of the cross-autocorrelations in the Japanese market is very similar to that of the U.S. in the sense that there are lead-lag relations running from larger stocks to smaller stocks, which will create positive autocorrelation in the market index. Although we have found no autocorrelation in the popular Japanese TOPIX market index, it is because TOPIX puts much more weight on larger stocks compared to the CRSP index for the U.S. market. However, such a cross-autocorrelation structure disappeared during the latter half of the 1990s, as the largest stocks in the Japanese market began to exhibit negative autocorrelation. The possibility of a serious financial crisis during this period provides an explanation for negative autocorrelation. Some empirical evidence is provided for this explanation.
Опубликовано на портале: 03-12-2007Ana Carvajal, Jennifer A. Elliott IMF, Working Paper. 2007.
This paper examines the strengths and weaknesses of securities regulatory systems worldwide with a view to a better understanding of common problems and areas of global concern. We found that a consistent theme emerges regarding the lack of ability of regulators to effectively enforce compliance with existing rules and regulation. In many countries, a combination of factors, including insufficient legal authority, a lack of resources, political will and skills, has undermined the regulator's capacity to effectively execute regulation. This weakness is more acute in areas of increased technical complexity such as standards for and supervision of the valuation of assets and risk management practices.
The Declining U.S. Equity Premium [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 03-10-2003Ravi Jaganathan, Ellen R. McGrattan, Anna Scherbina FRB Quarterly Review. 2000. Vol. 24. No. 4. P. 3-19.
This study demonstrates that the U.S. equity premium has declined significantly during the last three decades. The study calculates the equity premium using a variation of a formula in the classic Gordon stock valuation model. The calculation includes the bond yield, the stock dividend yield, and the expected dividend growth rate, which in this formulation can change over time. The study calculates the premium for several measures of the aggregate U.S. stock portfolio and several assumptions about bond yields and stock dividends and gets basically the same result. The premium averaged about 7 percentage points during 192670 and only about 0.7 of a percentage point after that. This result is shown to be reasonable by demonstrating the roughly equal returns that investments in stocks and consol bonds of the same duration would have earned between 1982 and 1999, years when the equity premium is estimated to have been zero.
Опубликовано на портале: 25-10-2007Jacob Boudoukh, Matthew Richardson, Robert Whitelaw NBER Working Papers. 2005. w11841.
The prevailing view in finance is that the evidence for long-horizon stock return predictability is significantly stronger than that for short horizons. We show that for persistent regressors, a characteristic of most of the predictive variables used in the literature, the estimators are almost perfectly correlated across horizons under the null hypothesis of no predictability. For example, for the persistence levels of dividend yields, the analytical correlation is 99% between the 1- and 2-year horizon estimators and 94% between the 1- and 5-year horizons, due to the combined effects of overlapping returns and the persistence of the predictive variable. Common sampling error across equations leads to ordinary least squares coefficient estimates and R2s that are roughly proportional to the horizon under the null hypothesis. This is the precise pattern found in the data. The asymptotic theory is corroborated, and the analysis extended by extensive simulation evidence. We perform joint tests across horizons for a variety of explanatory variables, and provide an alternative view of the existing evidence.
Опубликовано на портале: 01-11-2007Cheng Hua SSRN Working Papers. 2006.
We develop a dynamic model in which traders have differential information about the true value of the risky asset and trade the risky asset with proportional transaction costs. We show that without additional assumption, trading volume can not totally remove the noise in the pricing equation. However, because trading volume increases in the absolute value of noisy per capita supply change, it provides useful information on the asset fundamental value which cannot be inferred from the equilibrium price. We further investigate the relation between trading volume, price autocorrelation, return volatility and proportional transaction costs. Firstly, trading volume decreases in proportional transaction costs and the influence of proportional transaction costs decreases at the margin. Secondly, price autocorrelation can be generated by proportional transaction costs: under no transaction costs, the equilibrium prices at date 1 and 2 are not correlated; however under proportional transaction costs, they are correlated - the higher (lower) the equilibrium price at date 1, the lower (higher) the equilibrium price at date 2. Thirdly, we show that return volatility may be increasing in proportional transaction costs, which is contrary to Stiglitz 1989, Summers & Summers 1989’s reasoning but is consistent with Umlauf 1993 and Jones & Seguin 1997’s empirical results
Опубликовано на портале: 22-10-2007John C. Coffee Jr. Columbia Law and Economics Working Paper. 2003. No. 214.
Between January 1997 and June 2002, approximately 10% of all listed companies in the United States announced at least one financial statement restatement. The stock prices of restating companies declined 10% on average on the announcement of these restatements, with restating firms losing over $100 billion in market capitalization over a short three day trading window surrounding these restatements. Such generalized financial irregularity requires a more generic causal explanation than can be found in the facts of Enron, WorldCom or other specific case histories.