IMF Working Paper Series
Опубликовано на портале: 16-12-2003Valerie Cerra, Sweta C. Saxena IMF Working Paper Series. 2002. No. 02/200 .
This paper studies the behavior of China's exports from the mid-1980s through 2001. Extensive quarterly data on values and quantities of major export products have been taken from Chinese customs statistics to form a panel data set. The data are used to estimate export supply price elasticities, including by industry groups. The extensive product level data permits the use of panel estimation techniques in order to increase the power of the testing methodology. Aggregate quarterly export unit price indices are also constructed and thereby provide an input to future research on China's trade.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003Lorenzo Giorgianni, Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti IMF Working Paper Series. 1997. No. 97/54 .
A distinguishing feature of the strong economic performance enjoyed by Korea and other newly industrializing Asian economies has been the rapid growth of export and import flows. In recent years, the growing weight of East Asian countries in the world economy and their increasing trade integration have been accompanied by a substantial change in the geographical destination of Korea's exports. While growth in Korean exports to member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has slowed down considerably, exports to other East Asian countries have boomed. This paper examines the extent to which the Korean experience can be explained within traditional trade models. It provides evidence on how exports and imports react to changes in relative prices and in foreign and domestic demand, and investigates the determinants of the direction of Korean exports. Two important issues are dealt with differently from previous studies. First, in light of the high weight of raw materials and capital goods in Korea's imports, the hypothesis that investment expenditure is the most important explanatory variable for import demand is examined. Second, export demand and supply elasticities are obtained by estimating a simultaneous structural model in which the long- and short-run dynamic properties of the data are fully specified. Estimation results indicate that real consumption and investment are important determinants of aggregate imports in Korea and that a specification that employs aggregate expenditure implicitly underestimates the relative importance of investment. The demand for Korean exports exhibits high elasticity with respect to foreign income and relative export prices. The decline in the share of exports to industrial countries is linked not only to the decline in the relative importance of OECD countries in world trade, but also to the increased penetration of industrial countries. markets by other Asian developing countries.
Опубликовано на портале: 10-12-2003Evan Tanner IMF Working Paper Series. 1998. No. 98/117 .
Ex-post deviations from uncovered interest parity (UIP)-realized differences between dollar returns on identical assets of different currencies-equal the real interest differencial plus real exchange rate growth. Among industrialized countries, UIP deviations are largely explained by unanticipated real exchange rate growth, but among developing countries, real interest differencial are "where the action is". This observations is due to the greater variabiliti of inflation in developing countries, but may also stem from higher and more variable risks and capital controls in these countries. Also among developing countries with moderate inflation, offsetting comovements of real interest differencials and real exchange rate growth support the sticky-price hypothesis.
Опубликовано на портале: 10-12-2003Kenneth S. Rogoff IMF Working Paper Series. 2002. No. 02/39.
This Mundell Fleming lecture at the International Monetary Fund's 2001 annual research conference marks the 25th anniversary of Rudiger Dornbusch's masterpiece, "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," a seminal contribution to both policy and research in the field of international finance. This essay provides a simple overview of the model as well as some empirics, not only on exchange rates but on measures of the paper's influence. Last, but not least, T offer some personal reflections on how Dornbusch conveyed the ideas in his "overshooting model" to inspire a generation of students.
Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Brazil [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 20-07-2004Agnès Belaisch IMF Working Paper Series. 2003. No. 03/141.
Сегодня в литературе все чаще находит подтверждение тот факт, что степень влияния номинального курса на цены (exchange rate pass-through) в последнее время снизилась. В статье показывается, что снижение эффекта pass-through наблюдалось и в Бразилии. Кроме того, степень проявления этого эффекта в Бразилии ниже, чем в других странах Латинской Америки, но выше по сравнению со странами большой семерки.
Опубликовано на портале: 11-08-2004Ehsan U. Choudhri, Dalia S. Hakura IMF Working Paper Series. 2001. No. 01/194.
В статье тестируется гипотеза, выдвинутая Джоном Тейлором, которая состоит в том, что связь между колебаниями номинального валютного курса и ценами на внутреннем рынке (pass-through) должна быть слабее при низком уровне инфляции. В качестве базы используется теоретические разработки в области новой макроэкономики в открытой экономике (new open economy macroeconomic models). Расчеты проведены на основе данных по 71 стране за период 1979-2000 гг. Результат исследования показал, что имеет место положительная и статистически значимая связь между эффектом pass-through и уровнем инфляции. При этом инфляция оказалась более значима, чем другие макроэкономические переменные.
Опубликовано на портале: 10-12-2003Peter Clarke, Ronald MacDonald IMF Working Paper Series. 1998. No. 98/67.
This paper compares two approaches for examining the extent to which a country's actual real effective exchange rate is consistent with economic fundamentals: the PEER approach, which involves calculating the real exchange rate that equates the current account at full employment with sustainable net capital flows, and the BEER approach, which uses econometric methods to establish a behavioral link between the real rate and relevant economic variables. An exchange rate model is estimated for the G-3 currencies to provide illustrative comparisons of BEERs and FEERs.
Опубликовано на портале: 19-11-2003Jack Diamond IMF Working Paper Series. 2003. Vol. 03. No. 169.
Многие страны с переходной экономикой пытаются улучшить бюджетный процесс и перейти к бюджетированию, ориентированному на результат. В статье приводится обзор эволюции "новой" модели бюджетирования, ориентированного на результат, которая во все большей степени используется в развитых странах. На основе определения основных компонент этой модели, в работе указываются основные задачи, которые будут стоять перед странами с переходной экономикой при переходе от действующих бюджетных процедур к использованию указанной модели.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003Tito Cordella, Isabel Grilo IMF Working Paper Series. 1998. No. 98/48 .
This paper uses a vertical differentiation duopoly framework to analyze firms. relocation decisions when the removal either of trade barriers or of restrictions on capital outflows or inflows (globalization) allows them to serve the domestic market through foreign plants employing cheaper foreign labor. The paper addresses two issues. First, it tries to explain which firms, within a specific industry, have the stronger incentives in relocating their production facilities in low-wage countries. It shows that such incentives are higher for the firm producing the variety that would have a larger market share if the two goods were sold at their marginal cost. Second, it assesses the welfare consequences of the decision of domestic firms to serve the domestic market through foreign plants. More precisely, it compares domestic welfare under autarchy and under globalization. The recognition of the consequences of relocation on unemployment allows to explicitly take into account the associated variations in workers. surplus, when performing the welfare analysis. In this second-best world, when the complete liberalization of trade and capital flows leads to the relocation of the whole industry, autarchy is strictly better, on domestic welfare terms, than globalization. However, when relocation is a dominant strategy for one (and only one) firm, globalization may unambiguously be welfare improving. Finally, and somehow against the common wisdom, the paper shows that the welfare cost of relocation is lower, the lower is the level of the foreign wage.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003Ayhan Kose, Eswar S. Prasad, Silva Marco E. Terrones IMF Working Paper Series. 2003. No. 03/27 .
This paper examines the impact of rising trade and financial integration on international business cycle comovement among a large group of industrial and developing countries. The results provide at best limited support for the conventional wisdom that globalization has increased the degree of synchronization of business cycles. The evidence that trade and financial integration enhance global spillovers of macroeconomic fluctuations is stronger for industrial countries. One striking result is that, on average, cross-country consumption correlations have not increased in the 1990s, precisely when financial integration would have been expected to result in better risk-sharing opportunities, especially for developing countries.
How Does Industrialization Affect the Structure of International Trade? The Japanese Experience in the Pacific Basin [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 16-12-2003Sayuri Shirai, Dongpei Huang IMF Working Paper Series. 1994. No. 94/95.
This paper provides a theoretical model to explain how industrialization affects the structure of international trade. Using conventional economic concepts such as economies of scale and monopolistic competition and considering both horizontal and vertical product differentiation, the model explicitly focuses on industrialization and its impact on the volume and share of intra- and inter-industry trade. The paper considers two processes: one that increases the quality of manufactured products and one that shifts labor from the agricultural to the manufacturing sector. The model shows that the volume and share of intra-industry trade increase when the quality of products in a developing country improves and when the difference in relative factor endowments between an industrial and a developing country shrinks. It also suggests that the faster a developing country industrializes, the faster intra-industry trade increases. This paper investigates empirically the structural changes in Japan's international trade with Indonesia and Korea for 1975 and 1985. These countries were chosen because they differ in their relative factor endowments and technology.
Imperfect Competition and the Design of VAT Regimes: the Case of Energy Trade between Russia and Ukraine [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003Clinton R. Shiells IMF Working Paper Series. 2002. No. 02/235 .
Under imperfect competition, Russia and Ukraine may choose to deviate from optimal tax considerations which suggest use of a destination-based VAT regime. Oil and gas trade is a major source of Russian tax revenue, which is collected partly through an origin-based VAT on intra-CIS energy trade. The paper shows that Ukraine may try to capture part of the tax revenue if it has monopsony power. It is far from clear whether Ukraine would succeed in shifting the rents through taxation, since this depends on the form of imperfect competition and the curvature of Ukraine's import demand function.
Опубликовано на портале: 20-07-2004Mark de Broeck, Torsten Slok IMF Working Paper Series. 2001. No. 01/56.
В течение последнего десятилетия в некоторых странах с переходной экономикой наблюдалось значительное укрепление реального курса национальной валюты. В данной статье проверяется следующая гипотеза - укрепление курса является следствием роста производительности в секторе торгуемых благ. Используя панельные данные за период 1993-1998 гг., авторы показали, что в странах Центральной и Восточной Европы, а также странах Балтии укрепление действительно можно объяснить ростом производительности. Авторы полагают, что по мере развития переходные экономики будут испытают еще большее укрепление курса. Однако это укрепление не должно негативно отражаться на международной конкурентоспособности, поскольку является всего лишь сдвигом равновесия в результате роста производительности.
Опубликовано на портале: 16-12-2003Oleh Havrylyshyn, Peter Kunzel IMF Working Paper Series. 1997. No. 97/47.
Arab countries today face prospects of trade liberalization as exemplified by the European Union Association Agreements. Whereas few short-term benefits are anticipated, increased competitiveness is expected to spur improvements to efficiency, stimulate foreign investment, generate growth possibilities, and present access to larger markets. Given that Arab countries face liberalization, this paper makes use of the Grubel-Lloyd intra-industry trade (IIT) index as an indicator of the degree of industrial specialization to study Arab countries' ability to compete in a more open trade setting. The objective thus is to analyze how specialized Arab economies are relative to other countries at present, how well they might adapt in the future what determines the level of specialization and finally in what products Arab countries are competitive. The results of the paper suggest that the Arab region overall does not have a highly advanced industrial base relative to other regions. In fact, the Arab IIT levels tend to be below expected values even in a cross-country regression using various determinants of IIT. Nevertheless, significant improvements in IIT levels over the last decade for most Arab countries and IIT indices in many manufactured products show signs of improved competitiveness and demonstrate Arab countries. ability to compete in specialized commodities. Finally, the paper presents arguments favoring a more multilateral approach to trade liberalization over a bilateral agreement with the EU alone, and suggests that market-oriented and open economy policies could yield significant gains in the form of increased specialization and higher IIT levels.
Liberalization of Trade in Financial Services and Financial Sector Stability (Analytical Approach) [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 16-12-2003Alexei P. Kireyev IMF Working Paper Series. 2002. No. 02/138 .
The paper seeks to establish a link between the liberalization of trade in financial services undertaken by countries under the WTO and the stability of their financial systems. The paper concludes that liberalization has generally been conducive to stability because of the mutually reinforcing nature of existing international rules and practices. Financial stability and efficiency, which should be ultimate goals of further liberalization, can be ensured by taking advantage of coherent policy advice and the application of existing multilateral mechanisms-in particular, the WTO negotiations and the IMF/World Bank financial sector assessment program