IMF Working Paper Series
Liberalization of Trade in Financial Services and Financial Sector Stability (Empirical
Approach) [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 16-12-2003
Alexei P. Kireyev
IMF Working Paper Series.
2002.
No. 02/139 .
The paper explores empirically the links between the WTO-driven liberalization of
trade in financial services and the stability of national financial systems. Econometric
testing of indicators intended to proxy financial sector stability-subdivided into
exchange rate and banking sector stability-suggests that opening of the financial
sector is an efficient policy instrument at the disposal of the authorities for achieving
a variety of macroeconomic goals. While liberalization is found to be broadly conducive
to stability, the outcome of liberalization on exchange rate stability is less predictable
than on banking sector stability.
Measuring the Impact of Distortions in Agricultural Trade in Partial and General
Equilibrium [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003
Stephen P. Tokarick
IMF Working Paper Series.
2003.
No. 03/110 .
This paper provides quantitative estimates of the impact of removing agricultural
support (both tariffs and subsidies) in partial- and general-equilibrium frameworks.
The results show that agricultural support in industrial countries is highly distortionary
and tariffs have a larger distortionary impact than subsidies. Removal of agricultural
support would likely raise the international prices of food, resulting in an increase
in the cost of food for many net-food- importing countries, although the increase
is generally small. The results also show that most of the benefits from removing
agricultural support accrue to the countries that liberalize.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-10-2007
Fabio Ghironi, Alessandro Rebucci
IMF Working Paper Series.
2002.
No. 02/34.
We compare the performance of a currency board, inflation targeting, and dollarization
in a small, open developing economy with a liberalized capital account. We focus
on the transmission of shocks to currency and country risk premia and on the role
of fluctuations in premia in the propagation of other shocks. We calibrate our model
on Argentina. The framework matches the second moments of key variables well. Welfare
analysis suggests that dollarization is preferable to alternative regimes because
it removes currency premium volatility. However, a currency board can match dollarization
on welfare grounds if the central bank holds a sufficiently large stock of foreign
reserves
Опубликовано на портале: 10-12-2003
Francisko Nadal-De Simon, W.A Razzak
IMF Working Paper Series.
1999.
No. 99/141.
This paper reexamines some unsettled theoretical and empirical issues regarding the
relationship between nominal exchange rates and interest rate differentials and provides
a model for the behavior of exchange rates in the long run, where interest rates
are determined in the bond market. The model predicts that an increase in the interest
rate differential appreciates the home currency. We test the model for the U.S. dollar
against the Deutsche mark, the British pound, the Japanese yen, and the Canadian
dollar. The first two pairs of exchange rates—for which purchasing power parity
Опубликовано на портале: 16-12-2003
Oleh Havrylyshyn, Hassan M. Al-Atrash
IMF Working Paper Series.
1998.
No. 98/22.
During the Soviet period, trade of the economies of the region was highly inward-oriented;
this was particularly marked for most of the republics of the USSR, but a bit less
so for Russia. Independence and transition to the market should have resulted in
two changes: increased external trade relative to GDP as the central planning restrictions
on foreign trade were lifted; and strong reorientation of trade to the rest of the
world to achieve a more normal geographic distribution as central plan directives
were removed, with the extent and speed of such geographic diversification affected
by the degree of structural reform achieved. The paper tests these hypotheses.
For most countries in central Europe, as well as a few others, one observes a trade
openness ratio similar to or at least approaching that of market economies of comparable
size and level of development. Using a variant of the gravity model, the study also
finds that geographic diversification to the European Union is greater the closer
is geographic proximity and the more progress a country makes in structural reforms.
The model is used to simulate the effects of more ambitious structural reforms. The
results suggest that even for countries most advanced in reforms, one might still
expect as much as an 8-10 percentage point increase in the level of exports to the
European Union, and more for others.
There are several important policy implications from these results. First, much remains
to be done in terms of liberalization and structural reform in most transition economies,
which will in turn promote further restructuring and resource reallocation and trade
diversification. Second, greater access to European Union markets may give an added
boost to reorientation of trade. Third, while the results suggest the importance
of differentiating competitive exchange rates, the limited period of time precludes
differentiating fully the effects of exchange rate stability from those of financial
stability.
Опубликовано на портале: 19-11-2003
Henry R. Lorie
IMF Working Paper Series.
2003.
Vol. 03.
No. 209.
За прошедшие годы в странах СНГ был достигнут существенный прогресс в организации
фискальных систем, соответствующих требованиям рыночной экономики. Настоящая работа
определяет приоритеты проведения дальнейших реформ в фискальной сфере. В частности,
все деятельность с использованием внебюджетных счетов и квази-фискальных инструментов
должна быть интегрирована в бюджетный процесс. Хотя ряд возможностей для улучшения
ситуации с уровнем налоговой нагрузки и уровнем бюдежтных расходов все еще сохраняются,
в целом эти показатели стран СНГ не отличаются существенно от международных норм.
Основные задачи - продолжить адаптацию фискальной системы к требованиям рыночной
экономики и провести структурные реформы в сфере общественных расходов, направленные
на повышение их эффективности.
Опубликовано на портале: 10-12-2003
Ronald MacDonald, Luca Ricci
IMF Working Paper Series.
2002.
No. 02/32.
This paper theoretically derives and empirically tests the implications of a new
trade theory framework for the systematic movements m the real exchange rate. It
focuses on the effect of imperfect substitutability of tradables and on the importance
of competitiveness, for which we construct an original proxy. Using a panel dynamic
OLS estimation of nine bilateral US dollar real exchange rates, we derive long-run
coefficients for relative productivity and competitiveness in the tradable and non-tradable
sectors, controlling for standard macroeconomic variables. The implications of imperfect
substitutability of tradables fit the data better than the standard neoclassical
assumption of price equalization. Our new measure of competitiveness is statistically
significant in explaining deviations from PPP.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003
Stephen P. Tokarick
IMF Working Paper Series.
2002.
No. 02/191 .
This paper uses an applied general equilbrium model to decompose the effects of changes
in trade and technology-related variables on wages of skilled and unskilled labor
between 1982 and 1996 in the United States. The results indicate that trade-related
variables (tariff cuts, improvement in the terms of trade, and the increase in the
trade deficit) had little impact on the widening wage gap. Also, changes in total
factor productivity had a small effect on relative wages. The major factor behind
the rise in the skilled wage relative to the unskilled wage was differential rates
of growth in skill-biased technical change across sectors. The paper also highlights
the role that nontraded goods play in explaining the wage gap. Finally, the paper
presents estimates of the effect of trade on wages by calculating what wage rates
would be under autarky. The results show that expanding trade could actually reduce
wage inequality, rather than increase it. The welfare costs to the U.S economy of
moving to autarky (using 1996 as a base) are about 6 percent of GDP.
Real Exchange Rate Behavior and Economic Growth: Evidence from Egypt, Jordan, Morocco,
and Tunisia [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 20-07-2004
Ilker Domac, Ghiath Shabsigh
IMF Working Paper Series.
1999.
No. 99/40.
В статье оценивается степень влияния отклонения реального курса от своего равновесия
на экономический рост в Египте, Иордании, Марокко и Тунисе. В расчетах участвует
три показателя отклонения, построенных на основе паритета покупательной способности,
цены валюты на "черном" рынке, структурой модели. Все три показателя позволяют подтвердить
негативный эффект отклонения курса. Другие факторы (темп роста капитала и населения)
статистически значимы и имеют знак согласующийся с выводами теории роста.
Опубликовано на портале: 19-11-2003
Vahram Stepanyan
IMF Working Paper Series.
2003.
Vol. 03.
No. 173.
В начале 1990-х гг. страны бывшего Советского Союза приступили к реформе налоговых
систем, причем направления и ход реформ существенно отличались между странами на
более поздних этапах их проведения. Недавно в ряде стран указанной группы начался
новый этап налоговой реформы, основанный на предположение, что снижение предельных
ставок походного налога на высокие доходы благотворно скажется на темпах экономического
развития и собираемости налога. В данной работе проводится анализ опыта различных
стран, который позволяет прийти к следующим выводам: - в целом нет достаточных
доказательств роста поступлений от подоходного налога как результата только лишь
снижения предельных ставок, применяющихся к высоким доходам;
- в странах бывшего СССР незначительна эластичность поведения экономических агентов
(с точки зрения сбережений, инвестиций и предложения труда) по ставке подоходного
налога. Это означает, что возможное воздействие снижения ставок подоходного налога
на экономический рост также будет незначительным.
Shock Versus Gradualism in Models of Rational Expectations: The Case of Trade Liberalization [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 16-12-2003
Leonardo Auernheimer, Susan Mary George
IMF Working Paper Series.
1997.
No. 97/122.
This paper presents another argument in favor of "shock versus gradualism" when implementing
trade liberalization policies. In a small open economy in which agents have rational
expectations, all policies are credible, and all gains from trade are production
gains (an assumption made for simplicity), we show that gradually removing a tariff
is in itself distortionary. A temporary, nonzero rate of change in the policy variable
the falling tariff rate introduces an intertemporal relative price distortion between
consumption and asset accumulation for the duration of the policy.
An unanticipated, immediate removal of the tariff is always superior to a gradual
removal. If the shock approach of reform is precluded, a gradualist program must
be evaluated by comparing the usual permanent gains from free trade with the transitory
welfare losses generated from the intertemporal distortion. For certain parameters,
if the duration of liberalization is extended over too long a time period, gradualist
policies may be worse from a welfare standpoint than not removing the tariff at all.
An immediate implication is that a third policy option removing the tariff at once
at a future date, without a previous announcement may be better than gradually removing
the tariff starting at the present date. Such a policy delays the benefits of the
intratemporal production gains but avoids the intertemporal distortion of a gradualist
policy. In some cases the gains from avoiding these costs dominate the costs of delay.
Опубликовано на портале: 16-12-2003
Aaditya Mattoo, Devesh Roy, Arvind Subramanian
IMF Working Paper Series.
2002.
No. 02/158 .
This paper describes the United States recently enacted Africa Growth and Opportunity
Act (AGOA) and assesses its quantitative impact on African exports. The AGOA expands
the scope of preferential access of Africa's exports to the United States in key
areas such as clothing. However, its medium term benefits estimated at about US$100-$140
million, an 8 11 percent addition to current non-oil exports would have been nearly
five times greater (US$540 million) if no restrictive conditions had been imposed
on the terms of market access. The most important of these conditions are the rules
of origin with which African exporters of clothing must comply to benefit from duty-free
access.
Опубликовано на портале: 16-12-2003
Allan D. Brunner
IMF Working Paper Series.
2003.
No. 03/37.
This paper examines the dynamic relationship between trade and income. While most
economists agree that increased trade leads to an increase in average income, economic
theory is ambiguous about the possible effects on the long-run growth rate of the
economy. Using a dynamic panel data model, the hypotheses of no long-run effects
of trade on income and on income growth are tested explicitly. The possibility of
endogeneity is addressed by constructing an instrument for trade by extending Frankel
and Romer's (1999) cross-sectional approach to the case of a panel data model. The
empirical results indicate that trade has a large and significant effect on the level
of income, but the effect on income growth is small and non-robust to model specification.
Опубликовано на портале: 10-12-2003
Ronald MacDonald, Jun Nagayasu
IMF Working Paper Series.
1999.
No. 99/37.
This paper empirically examines the long-run relationship between real exchange rates
and real interest rate differentials over the recent floating exchange rate period,
using a panel cointegration method, with data for a set of industrialized countries.
The paper finds evidence of statistically significant long-run relationships and
plausible point estimates, which contrasts with much existing evidence. The failure
of others to establish such relationships may reflect the estimation method they
use rather than any inherent deficiency of the fundamentals-based models.
Опубликовано на портале: 19-11-2003
Jack Diamond
IMF Working Paper Series.
2002.
Vol. 02.
No. 21.
В работе анализируется ход бюджетной реформы в Российской Федерации с 1992 года и,
в особенно, в период после принятия нового Бюджетного кодекса. Рассматривается воздействие
бюджетной реформы на экономику и функционирование общественного сектора. Автор указывает
на ряд задач, которые пока не были решены в процессе реформирования бюджетной системы,
и отмечает, что их решение требует комплексного подхода, который не может быть ограничен
только изменением бюджетных процедур.
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