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Макроэкономика - раздел современной экономической теории, в рамках которого изучаются такие феномены как экономический рост, колебания деловой активности, инфляция и безработица, а также вопросы макроэкономической политики. (подробнее...)

Статьи

Всего статей в данном разделе : 153

Опубликовано на портале: 15-07-2004
Gregory N. Mankiw, David Romer, David N. Weil Quarterly Journal of Economics. 1992.  Vol. 107. No. 2. P. 407-437. 
This paper examines whether the Solow growth model is consistent with the international variation in the standard of living. It shows that an augmented Solow model that includes accumulation of human as well as physical capital provides an excellent description of the cross-country data. The paper also examines the implications of the Solow model for convergence in standards of living, that is, for whether poor countries tend to grow faster than rich countries. The evidence indicates that, holding population growth and capital accumulation constant, countries converge at about the rate the augmented Solow model predicts.
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Опубликовано на портале: 02-09-2003
Andrew B. Abel, Gregory N. Mankiw, Lawrence H. Summers, Richard J. Zeckhauser Review of Economic Studies. 1989.  No. 56. P. 1-20. 
The issue of dynamic efficiency is central to analyses of capital accumulation and economic growth. Yet the question of what characteristics should be examined to determine whether actual economies are dynamically efficient is unresolved. This paper develops a criterion for determining whether an economy is dynamically efficient. The criterion, which holds for economies in which technological progress and population growth are stochastic, involves a comparison of the cash flows generated by capital with the level of investment. Its application to the United States economy and the economies of other major OECD nations suggests that they are dynamically efficient.
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Опубликовано на портале: 18-08-2004
Bradford DeLong, Lawrence H. Summers Quarterly Journal of Economics. 1991.  Vol. 106. No. 2. P. 445-502. 
Using data from the United Nations Comparison Project and the Penn World Table, we find that machinery and equipment investment has a strong association with growth: over 1960-1985 each extra percent of GDP invested in equipment is associated with an increase in GDP growth of one third of a percentage point per year. This is a much stronger association than found between growth and any of the other components of investment. A variety of considerations suggest that this association is causal, that higher equipment investment drives faster growth, and that the social return to equipment investment in well-functioning market economies is on the order of 30 percent per year.
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Опубликовано на портале: 14-02-2005
Michele Boldrin, David Knudsen Levine Journal of Economic Theory. 2002.  Vol. 105. No. 1. P. 18-41. 
It has been argued that concave models exhibit less "endogeneity of growth" than models with increasing returns to scale. Here we study a simple model of factor saving technological improvement in a concave framework. Capital can be used either to reproduce itself, or, at some additional cost, to produce a higher quality of capital, which requires less labor input. If better quality capital can be produced quickly, we get a model of exogenous balanced growth as a special case of ours. If, however, better quality capital can be produced slowly, we get a model of "endogenous growth" in which the growth rate of the economy and the rate of adoption of new technologies is determined by preferences, technology and initial conditions. Moreover, in the latter case, the process of growth is necessarily uneven, exhibiting a natural cycle with alternating periods of high and slow growth. Growth paths and technological innovations also exhibit dependence upon initial conditions. The model provides a step toward a theory of endogenous innovation under conditions of perfect competition.
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Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2007
Eswar S. Prasad, Raghuram G. Rajan, Arvind Subramanian Brookings Papers on Economic Activity. 2007.  Vol. 1. No. 2007-1. P. 153-230. 
Nonindustrial countries that have relied more on foreign finance have not grown faster in the long run as standard theoretical models predict. The reason may lie in these countries’ limited ability to absorb foreign capital, especially because their financial systems have difficulty allocating it to productive uses, and because their currencies are prone to appreciation (and often overvaluation) when such inflows occur. The current anomaly of poor countries financing rich countries may not really hurt the former’s growth, at least conditional on their existing institutional and financial structures. Our results do not imply that foreign finance has no role in development or that all types of capital naturally flow “uphill.” Indeed, the patterns associated with foreign direct investment flows have generally been more consistent with theoretical predictions. However, we find no evidence that providing financing in excess of domestic saving is the channel through which financial integration delivers its benefits.
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Опубликовано на портале: 11-11-2004
Nouriel Roubini Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking. 1998.  Vol. 30. No. 4. P. 721-744. 
The effects of income and consumption taxation are examined in the context of models in which the growth process is driven by the accumulation of human and physical capital. The different channels through which these taxes affect economic growth are discussed, and it is shown that in general the taxation of factor incomes (human and physical capital) is growth-reducing. The effects of consumption taxation on growth depend crucially on the elasticity of labor supply, and therefore on the specification of the leisure activity. The paper also derives implications for the optimal intertemporal choice of tax instruments.
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Опубликовано на портале: 31-12-2010
Pekka Sutela Экономический журнал ВШЭ. 2002.  Т. 6. № 3. С. 315-323. 
An earlier version of this paper was presented at the Higher School of Economics (together with the World Bank and the Bureau of Economic Analysis) conference in Moscow, 3-4 April 2002. Most recent discussion on resource-based development has been in terms of a burden of resource abundance (Auty, 2001). Though the measurement of resource abundance is not self-evident at all, there is indeed much empirical evidence that resource-rich countries tend to perform badly both in terms of welfare levels and economic growth. Externally, resource abundance tends to contribute to high inequality. The society at large therefore tends to equate trade with the interests of the rich. There is therefore much ground for populism and – more recently – to antiglobalism as a variant thereof. There is also a tendency towards the Dutch Disease, where large revenue and perhaps investment flows lead to a real exchange rate which is detrimentally high for the competitiveness of the non-resource based part of the economy. A skewed production and export structure tends to associate with volatile export prices, contributing to economic and policy instability.
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Опубликовано на портале: 14-07-2005
Xavier Sala-i-Martin American Economic Review. 1997.  Vol. 87. No. 2. P. 178-183. 
In this paper I try to move away from the Extreme Bounds method of identifying "robust" empirical relations in the economic growth literature. Instead of analyzing the extreme bounds of the estimates of the coefficient of a particular variable, I analyze the entire distribution. My claim in this paper is that, if we do this, the picture emerging from the empirical growth literature is not the pessimistic "Nothing is Robust" that we get with the extreme bound analysis. Instead, we find that a substantial number of variables can be found to be strongly related to growth.
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Опубликовано на портале: 03-12-2003
Francisco H.G. Ferreira World Bank Poverty Net. 1999. 
Income and wealth distributions can no longer be seen as mere outcomes of the general equilibrium of an economy. The central processes that determine resource allocation – through capital markets, through the political system, and through social circumstances – are influenced by the distribution of wealth in important ways. More unequal societies tend to develop larger groups of people who are excluded from opportunities others enjoy – be they a better education, access to loans, or to insurance – and who therefore do not develop their full productive potentials. Both theory and empirical evidence suggest that these incomplete realizations of economic potential are not of concern only to those who care about equity per se. They also affect aggregate economic potential, and therefore aggregate output and its rate of growth. The inverted-U relationship between growth and inequality suggested by Kuznets has not survived recent empirical scrutiny terribly well. Instead, it is gradually being replaced by a perception that the main flow of causation may be in the other direction, with inequality hampering the rate and quality of economic growth. The debate is not over, either conceptually or empirically. But its very liveliness attests to the importance of the question.
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Опубликовано на портале: 15-01-2006
Michael Bruno, William Easterly Journal of Monetary Economics. 1998.  Vol. 41. No. 1. P. 3-26. 
Недавние экономические исследования показали, что средние значения показателей долгосрочного роста и инфляция имеют слабую корреляцию; исключение наблюдений крайне высокой инфляции несущественно влияет на данную корреляцию; включение панельных данных временных рядов улучшает результаты исследований, однако агрегированный параметрический подход остается неполным. Авторы данной статьи предлагают непараметрическое определение кризисов высокой инфляции как периодов, наблюдаемое значение инфляции в которых превышает годовое значение в 40 %. Исключив данные по странам с кризисом высокой инфляции, они приходят к выводам об отсутствии очевидной взаимосвязи между экономическим ростом и инфляцией.
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Опубликовано на портале: 31-12-2010
Paul J Welfens Экономический журнал ВШЭ. 2003.  Т. 7. № 2. С. 173-220. 
The paper highlights some international differences in fields relevant for growth in selected transition economies, in particular eastern European countries and in Russia. Initial problems of transition were natural in a sense that systemic transition to a market economy has effectively destroyed part of the existing capital stock that was no longer profitable under the new relative prices imported from world markets; and there was a transitory inflationary push as low state-administered prices were replaced by higher market equilibrium prices. The papers focuses in particular on the role of structural change, financial services and the New Economy, analyses how those factors affect economic growth. The paper discusses theoretical aspects of growth in transition countries, presents policy conclusions and some historical data.
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Опубликовано на портале: 03-12-2007
Aaron Tornell, Frank Westermann, Lorenza Martinez Brookings Papers on Economic Activity. 2007.  Vol. 2. No. 2003-2. P. 1-112. 
Although the case for trade liberalization is now well established, the case for financial liberalization is not, because the latter is associated with lending booms and crises. Some critics invoke as evidence the recent weak growth of Mexico, a prominent liberalizer. We argue that liberalization is beneficial despite the occurrence of crises. First, we show that financial liberalization has typically followed trade liberalization, and that both have led to faster growth, despite more frequent booms and busts. Second, we present a model that shows why, in countries with severe credit market imperfections, liberalization leads to faster growth and, as a by-product, to financial fragility. Third, comparing Mexico with this international norm, we show that liberalization and NAFTA have induced faster growth and investment but have not been enough: lack of structural reform and a protracted credit crunch generated bottlenecks that blocked further growth and led to a slowdown in exports.
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Опубликовано на портале: 24-03-2003
Bradford DeLong American Economic Review. 1988.  Vol. 78. No. 5. P. 1138-1154. 
Данная статья построена на критике подхода к анализу проблемы конвергенции, изложенному в статье Baumol (1986). Productivity Growth, Convergence and Welfare: What the Long-Run Data Show. American Economic Review, Vol. 76(5): 1072-1085. Де Лонг подвергает сомнению методологию Баумоля и предлагает свой вариант исследования.
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Опубликовано на портале: 21-12-2007
Bradford DeLong American Economic Review. 1988.  Vol. 78. No. 5. P. 1138-1154. 

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Опубликовано на портале: 25-01-2003
William Jack Baumol American Economic Review. 1986.  No. 76(5). P. 1072-1085. 
Maddison's 1870-1979 data are analyzed, showing the historically unprecedented growth in productivity, gross domestic product per capita and exports and the remarkable convergence of productivities of industrialized market economies, with convergence apparently shared by planned economies but not less developed countries. Productivity lag's relation to "deindustrialization," unemployment, and balance of payments is examined. The data are shown to suggest a tempered view of the slowdown in U.S. productivity growth and its lag behind other countries.
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