IMF Working Paper Series
Опубликовано на портале: 16-12-2003Valerie Cerra, Sweta C. Saxena IMF Working Paper Series. 2002. No. 02/200 .
This paper studies the behavior of China's exports from the mid-1980s through 2001. Extensive quarterly data on values and quantities of major export products have been taken from Chinese customs statistics to form a panel data set. The data are used to estimate export supply price elasticities, including by industry groups. The extensive product level data permits the use of panel estimation techniques in order to increase the power of the testing methodology. Aggregate quarterly export unit price indices are also constructed and thereby provide an input to future research on China's trade.
Опубликовано на портале: 10-12-2003Kenneth S. Rogoff IMF Working Paper Series. 2002. No. 02/39.
This Mundell Fleming lecture at the International Monetary Fund's 2001 annual research conference marks the 25th anniversary of Rudiger Dornbusch's masterpiece, "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," a seminal contribution to both policy and research in the field of international finance. This essay provides a simple overview of the model as well as some empirics, not only on exchange rates but on measures of the paper's influence. Last, but not least, T offer some personal reflections on how Dornbusch conveyed the ideas in his "overshooting model" to inspire a generation of students.
Imperfect Competition and the Design of VAT Regimes: the Case of Energy Trade between Russia and Ukraine [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003Clinton R. Shiells IMF Working Paper Series. 2002. No. 02/235 .
Under imperfect competition, Russia and Ukraine may choose to deviate from optimal tax considerations which suggest use of a destination-based VAT regime. Oil and gas trade is a major source of Russian tax revenue, which is collected partly through an origin-based VAT on intra-CIS energy trade. The paper shows that Ukraine may try to capture part of the tax revenue if it has monopsony power. It is far from clear whether Ukraine would succeed in shifting the rents through taxation, since this depends on the form of imperfect competition and the curvature of Ukraine's import demand function.
Liberalization of Trade in Financial Services and Financial Sector Stability (Analytical Approach) [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 16-12-2003Alexei P. Kireyev IMF Working Paper Series. 2002. No. 02/138 .
The paper seeks to establish a link between the liberalization of trade in financial services undertaken by countries under the WTO and the stability of their financial systems. The paper concludes that liberalization has generally been conducive to stability because of the mutually reinforcing nature of existing international rules and practices. Financial stability and efficiency, which should be ultimate goals of further liberalization, can be ensured by taking advantage of coherent policy advice and the application of existing multilateral mechanisms-in particular, the WTO negotiations and the IMF/World Bank financial sector assessment program
Liberalization of Trade in Financial Services and Financial Sector Stability (Empirical Approach) [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 16-12-2003Alexei P. Kireyev IMF Working Paper Series. 2002. No. 02/139 .
The paper explores empirically the links between the WTO-driven liberalization of trade in financial services and the stability of national financial systems. Econometric testing of indicators intended to proxy financial sector stability-subdivided into exchange rate and banking sector stability-suggests that opening of the financial sector is an efficient policy instrument at the disposal of the authorities for achieving a variety of macroeconomic goals. While liberalization is found to be broadly conducive to stability, the outcome of liberalization on exchange rate stability is less predictable than on banking sector stability.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-10-2007Fabio Ghironi, Alessandro Rebucci IMF Working Paper Series. 2002. No. 02/34.
We compare the performance of a currency board, inflation targeting, and dollarization in a small, open developing economy with a liberalized capital account. We focus on the transmission of shocks to currency and country risk premia and on the role of fluctuations in premia in the propagation of other shocks. We calibrate our model on Argentina. The framework matches the second moments of key variables well. Welfare analysis suggests that dollarization is preferable to alternative regimes because it removes currency premium volatility. However, a currency board can match dollarization on welfare grounds if the central bank holds a sufficiently large stock of foreign reserves
Опубликовано на портале: 10-12-2003Ronald MacDonald, Luca Ricci IMF Working Paper Series. 2002. No. 02/32.
This paper theoretically derives and empirically tests the implications of a new trade theory framework for the systematic movements m the real exchange rate. It focuses on the effect of imperfect substitutability of tradables and on the importance of competitiveness, for which we construct an original proxy. Using a panel dynamic OLS estimation of nine bilateral US dollar real exchange rates, we derive long-run coefficients for relative productivity and competitiveness in the tradable and non-tradable sectors, controlling for standard macroeconomic variables. The implications of imperfect substitutability of tradables fit the data better than the standard neoclassical assumption of price equalization. Our new measure of competitiveness is statistically significant in explaining deviations from PPP.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003Stephen P. Tokarick IMF Working Paper Series. 2002. No. 02/191 .
This paper uses an applied general equilbrium model to decompose the effects of changes in trade and technology-related variables on wages of skilled and unskilled labor between 1982 and 1996 in the United States. The results indicate that trade-related variables (tariff cuts, improvement in the terms of trade, and the increase in the trade deficit) had little impact on the widening wage gap. Also, changes in total factor productivity had a small effect on relative wages. The major factor behind the rise in the skilled wage relative to the unskilled wage was differential rates of growth in skill-biased technical change across sectors. The paper also highlights the role that nontraded goods play in explaining the wage gap. Finally, the paper presents estimates of the effect of trade on wages by calculating what wage rates would be under autarky. The results show that expanding trade could actually reduce wage inequality, rather than increase it. The welfare costs to the U.S economy of moving to autarky (using 1996 as a base) are about 6 percent of GDP.
Опубликовано на портале: 16-12-2003Aaditya Mattoo, Devesh Roy, Arvind Subramanian IMF Working Paper Series. 2002. No. 02/158 .
This paper describes the United States recently enacted Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and assesses its quantitative impact on African exports. The AGOA expands the scope of preferential access of Africa's exports to the United States in key areas such as clothing. However, its medium term benefits estimated at about US$100-$140 million, an 8 11 percent addition to current non-oil exports would have been nearly five times greater (US$540 million) if no restrictive conditions had been imposed on the terms of market access. The most important of these conditions are the rules of origin with which African exporters of clothing must comply to benefit from duty-free access.
Опубликовано на портале: 19-11-2003Jack Diamond IMF Working Paper Series. 2002. Vol. 02. No. 21.
В работе анализируется ход бюджетной реформы в Российской Федерации с 1992 года и, в особенно, в период после принятия нового Бюджетного кодекса. Рассматривается воздействие бюджетной реформы на экономику и функционирование общественного сектора. Автор указывает на ряд задач, которые пока не были решены в процессе реформирования бюджетной системы, и отмечает, что их решение требует комплексного подхода, который не может быть ограничен только изменением бюджетных процедур.