Economics Working Papers of Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra
Alternative Use Systems for the Remaining Cloud Forest in Ethiopia and the Role of Arabica Coffee - A Cost-Benefit Analysis [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 26-11-2007Anke Reichhuber, Till Requate Economics Working Papers of Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. 2007. No. 2007-07.
This paper presents a cost-benefit analysis of three different use systems for the remaining cloud forests in Ethiopia which at present are being depleted at a rate of 8% per year. These use systems are traditional conversion to crop land, sustainable management of the forest (e.g. by growing high-quality semi-forest coffee), and strict protection. We find that conversion to cropland yields the highest net present income value for the local population, and at discount rates of 10% is even in the best interests of the country. For discount rates of at 5% or lower, sustainable forest use is in the best interests of the country. Taking into account the global benefits of biodiversity conservation and carbon storage, sustainable forest management yields the highest total economic value.
An Efficient Filtering Approach to Likelihood Approximation for State-Space Representations [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 26-11-2007David N. DeJong, Hariharan Dharmarajan, Roman Liesenfeld, Jean-Francois Richard Economics Working Papers of Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. 2007. No. 2007-25.
We develop a numerical filtering procedure that facilitates efficient likelihood evaluation in applications involving non-linear and non-gaussian state-space models. The procedure approximates necessary integrals using continuous or piecewise-continuous approximations of target densities. Construction is achieved via efficient importance sampling, and approximating densities are adapted to fully incorporate current information.
A Note on Model Selection in (Time Series) Regression Models - General-to-Specific or Specific-to-General? [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 26-11-2007Helmut Herwartz Economics Working Papers of Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. 2007. No. 2007-09.
The paper provides Monte Carlo evidence on the performance of general-to-specific and specific-to-general selection of explanatory variables in linear (auto)regressions. In small samples the former is markedly inefficient in terms of ex-ante forecasting performance.