Journal of Political Economy
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Опубликовано на портале: 05-02-2007
Joseph G. Altonji
Journal of Political Economy.
1986.
Vol. 94.
No. 3.
P. 176-215.
The sensitivity of the supply of labor to intertemporal variation in the wage is
an important issue in macroeconomics, the analysis of social security and pensions,
and the study of life-cycle patterns of work. This paper explores two approaches
to the measurement of intertemporal substitution that have appeared in the literature.
The first approach is to use consumption to control for wealth and unobserved expectations
about future wages in the labor supply equation. The second approach is to estimate
a first-difference equation for hours in which labor supply from the previous period
serves as a control for wealth and wage expectations. The results indicate that the
intertemporal substitution elasticity for married men is positive but small.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-01-2007
Paul Robert Milgrom, Donald John Roberts
Journal of Political Economy.
1986.
Vol. 94.
No. 4.
P. 796-821.
We present a signaling model, based on ideas of Phillip Nelson, in which both the
introductory price and the level of directly "uninformative" advertising or other
dissipative marketing expenditures are choice variables and may be used as signals
for the initially unobservable quality of a newly introduced experience good. Repeat
purchases play a crucial role in our model. A second focus of the paper is on illustrating
an approach to refining the set of equilibria in signaling games with multiple potential
signals.
Опубликовано на портале: 25-10-2007
Herminio Blanco, Peter Garber
Journal of Political Economy.
1986.
Vol. 94.
No. 1.
P. 148-166.
We generate an empirical method aimed at predicting the timing and magnitude of devaluations forced by speculative attacks on fixed exchange rate systems. Using the Mexican experience as an example, we produce time-series estimates of the one-period-ahead probability of devaluation, the expected value of the new fixed exchange rate, and the confidence interval of the forecasted exchange rate. The results of the empirical exercise are encouraging. Devaluations, both in and out of sample, did occur when "predicted" by the model. Furthermore, the probabilities of devaluation reached relatively high values prior to actual devaluations
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