Journal of Political Economy
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Опубликовано на портале: 05-02-2007Joseph G. Altonji Journal of Political Economy. 1986. Vol. 94. No. 3. P. 176-215.
The sensitivity of the supply of labor to intertemporal variation in the wage is an important issue in macroeconomics, the analysis of social security and pensions, and the study of life-cycle patterns of work. This paper explores two approaches to the measurement of intertemporal substitution that have appeared in the literature. The first approach is to use consumption to control for wealth and unobserved expectations about future wages in the labor supply equation. The second approach is to estimate a first-difference equation for hours in which labor supply from the previous period serves as a control for wealth and wage expectations. The results indicate that the intertemporal substitution elasticity for married men is positive but small.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-01-2007Paul Robert Milgrom, Donald John Roberts Journal of Political Economy. 1986. Vol. 94. No. 4. P. 796-821.
We present a signaling model, based on ideas of Phillip Nelson, in which both the introductory price and the level of directly "uninformative" advertising or other dissipative marketing expenditures are choice variables and may be used as signals for the initially unobservable quality of a newly introduced experience good. Repeat purchases play a crucial role in our model. A second focus of the paper is on illustrating an approach to refining the set of equilibria in signaling games with multiple potential signals.
Опубликовано на портале: 25-10-2007Herminio Blanco, Peter Garber Journal of Political Economy. 1986. Vol. 94. No. 1. P. 148-166.
We generate an empirical method aimed at predicting the timing and magnitude of devaluations forced by speculative attacks on fixed exchange rate systems. Using the Mexican experience as an example, we produce time-series estimates of the one-period-ahead probability of devaluation, the expected value of the new fixed exchange rate, and the confidence interval of the forecasted exchange rate. The results of the empirical exercise are encouraging. Devaluations, both in and out of sample, did occur when "predicted" by the model. Furthermore, the probabilities of devaluation reached relatively high values prior to actual devaluations