Journal of Accounting Research
Выпуск N3 за 2001 год
Forecasting Fed Cattle, Feeder Cattle, and Corn Cash Price Volatility: The Accuracy of Time Series, Implied Volatility, and Composite Approaches [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 21-11-2003Mark R. Manfredo, Raymond M. Leuthold, Scott H. Irwin Journal of Accounting Research. 2001. Vol. 33. No. 3.
Economists and others need estimates of future cash price volatility to use in risk management evaluation and education programs. This paper evaluates the performance of alternative volatility forecasts for fed cattle, feeder cattle, and corn cash price returns. Forecasts include time series (e.g. GARCH), implied volatility from options on future contracts, and composite specifications. The overriding finding from this research, consistent with the existing volatility forecasting literature is that no single method of volatility forecasting provides superior accuracy across alternative data sets and horizons. However, evidence is provided suggesting that risk managers and extension educators use composite methods when both time series and implied volatilities are available.