NBER Working Paper Series
Опубликовано на портале: 10-12-2003Alan M. Taylor NBER Working Paper Series. 2002. W8927 .
Recent globalization trends have refocused attention on the historical evolution of international capital mobility over the long run. The issue is examined here using time-series analysis of current-account dynamics for fifteen countries since circa 1850. The inter-war period emerges as an era of low capital mobility and only recently can we observe a tentative return to the degree of capital mobility witnessed during the late nineteenth century. The analysis of saving and investment dynamics also helps make sense of the frequently observed high correlation of saving and investment rates in historical data.
A Century of Missing Trade? [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003Antoni Estevadeordal, Alan M. Taylor NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. w8301.
In contemporary data, the measured factor content of trade is far smaller than its predicted magnitude in the pure Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek framework, the so-called 'missing trade' mystery. Authors wonder if this problem has been there from the beginning: that is, authors ask if the Heckscher-Ohlin theory was so much at odds with reality at its time of conception. Authors apply contemporary tests to historical data, focusing on the major trading zone that inspired the factor abundance theory, the Old and New Worlds of the pre-1914 'Greater Atlantic' economy. This places autor's analysis in a very different context than contemporary studies: an era with lower trade barriers, higher transport costs, a more skewed global distribution of the relevant factors (especially land), and comparably large productivity divergence. These conditions might seem more favorable to the theory, but the results are still very poor.
A Cure Worse Than the Disease? Currency Crises and the Output Costs of IMF-Supported Stabilization Programs [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 15-11-2004Michael M. Hutchison NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. w8305.
This paper investigates the output effects of IMF-supported stabilization programs, especially those introduced at the time of a severe balance of payments/currency crisis. Using a panel data set over the 1975-97 period and covering 67 developing and emerging-market economies (with 461 IMF stabilization programs and 160 currency crises), we find that currency crises even after controlling for macroeconomic developments, political and regional factors significantly reduce output growth for 1-2 years. Output growth is also lower (0.7 percentage points annually) during IMF-stabilization programs, but it appears that growth generally slows prior to implementation of the program. Moreover, programs coinciding with recent balance of payments or currency crises do not appear to further damage short-run growth prospects. Countries participating in IMF programs significantly reduce domestic credit growth, but no effect is found on budget policy. Applying this model to the collapse of output in East Asia following the 1997 crisis, we find that the unexpected (forecast error) collapse of output in Malaysia where an IMF-program was not followed-- was similar in magnitude to those countries adopting IMF programs (Indonesia, Korea, Philippines and Thailand).
Addicted to Dollars [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 10-12-2003Kenneth S. Rogoff, Carmen M. Reinhart, Miguel A. Savastano NBER Working Paper Series. 2003. W10015 .
Dollarization, in a broad sense, is increasingly a defining characteristic of many emerging market economies. How important is this trend quantitatively and how important is it for the conduct of monetary policy and the choice of exchange rate regimes? Though these questions have become a hot topic in both the theory and policy literature, most efforts are remarkably uninformed by evidence, in no small part because meaningful data has been lacking, except for a very narrow range of assets. This paper attempts to move the discussion forward and shed light on the critical questions by proposing a measure of dollarization that is broad both conceptually and in terms of country coverage. We use this measure to identify trends in the evolution of dollarization in the developing world in the last two decades, and to ascertain the consequences that dollarization has had on the effectiveness of monetary and exchange rate policy. We find that, contrary to the general presumption in the literature, a high degree of dollarization does not seem to be an obstacle to monetary control or to disinflation. A level of dollarization does, however, appear to increase exchange rate pass-through, reinforcing the claim that 'fear of floating' is a greater problem for highly dollarized economies. We also review the developing countries' record in combating their addiction to dollars. Concretely, we try to explain why some countries have been able to avoid certain forms of the addiction, and examine the evidence on successful de-dollarization.
Опубликовано на портале: 11-11-2004Ricardo J. Caballero, Arvind Krishnamurthy NBER Working Paper Series. 2002. w8758.
The last few years have seen a significant re-evaluation of the models used to analyze crises in emerging markets. Recent models typically stress financial constraints or distorted financial incentives. While this certainly represents progress, these models share a weakness with the earlier work: neither is uniquely about emerging markets. Adaptations of the Mundell-Fleming model represent Argentina as a Belgium with larger external shocks. Likewise, emerging market models of financial constraints are adaptations of developed economy ones with tighter financial constraints. In our work, we have advocated a model which distinguishes between the financial constraints affecting borrowing and lending among agents within an emerging economy, and those affecting borrowing from foreign lenders. This 'dual liquidity' model offers a parsimonious description of the behavior of firms, governments, and asset prices during financial crises. It also provides prescriptions for optimal policy responses to these crises.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003Robert E. Lipsey NBER Working Paper Series. 1999. No. 7292.
Since 1977, and in some cases starting before that, most East Asian countries’ export patterns in manufacturing have been transformed from industry distributions typical of developing countries to distributions more like those of advanced countries. The process of change in most cases started with inward FDI to produce for export in the new industries, particularly by U.S. firms in electronics and computer-related machinery. The U.S. firms were followed, in electronics, by Japanese multinationals. Over time, in most cases, the U.S.-owned affiliates turned more to sales in host-country market and their share in host country exports declined, although the host countries’ specializations in the new industries continued. U.S. and Japanese firms played somewhat different roles. U.S. firms’ investments were always distributed more along the lines of U.S. export comparative advantage, far from the previous patterns of the host countries. The industry distribution of Japanese investments initially followed more the lines of the host countries’ comparative advantage and Japanese affiliates were less export-oriented than U.S. affiliates. However, Japanese affiliates have become more like U.S. affiliates in both export orientation and industry composition. Their early concentration in textiles and apparel faded and they are more heavily concentrated than U.S. affiliates and more export-oriented in both electrical machinery and transport equipment.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003Andrew K. Rose, Mark M. Spiegel NBER Working Paper Series. 2002. w9285.
One reason why countries service their external debts is the fear that default might lead to shrinkage of international trade. If so, then creditors should systematically lend more to countries with which they share closer trade links. Autors develop a simple theoretical model to capture this intuition, then test and corroborate this idea.
Опубликовано на портале: 24-12-2003Douglas A. Irwin, Nina Pavcnik NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. w8648.
This paper examines international competition in the commercial aircraft industry. We estimate a discrete choice, differentiated products demand system for wide-body aircraft and examine the Airbus-Boeing rivalry under various assumptions on firm conduct. We then use this structure to evaluate two trade disputes between the United States and European Union. Our results suggest that the aircraft prices increased by about 3 percent after the 1992 U.S. -- E.U. agreement on trade in civil aircraft that limits subsidies. This price hike is consistent with a 7.5 percent increase in firms' marginal costs after the subsidy cuts. We also simulate the impact of the future entry of the Airbus A-380 super-jumbo aircraft on the demand for other wide-bodied aircraft, notably the Boeing 747. We find that the A-380 could reduce the market share of the 747 by up to 14 percent in the long range wide-body market segment (depending upon the discounts offered on the A-380), but would reduce the market for Airbus's existing wide-bodies by an even greater margin.
Altruism in Law and Economics [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 01-09-2003William N. Landes, Richard A. Posner NBER Working Paper Series. 1997. No. 217.
A classic example of external benefits is the rescue of the person or property of strangers in high transaction cost settings. To illustrate, A sees a flowerpot about to fall on B's (a stranger's) head; if he shouts, B will be saved. A thus has in his power to confer a considerable benefit on B. The standard economic reaction to a situation in which there are substantial potential external benefits and high transaction costs is to propose legal intervention. In the example given, this would mean either giving A a right to a reward or punishing A if he fails to save B. Either method is costly and may result in misallocative effects. These objections to using the law to internalize the external benefits of rescue would be much less imposing were it not for altruism, a factor ignored in most discussion of externalities. Altruism may be an inexpensive substitute for costly legal methods of internalizing external benefits, though this depends on the degree of altruism, the costs of rescue, and the benefits to the rescue. Although the general legal rule is not to reward the rescuer (nor to impose liability), the law recognizes the fragility of altruism and entitles the rescuer to a reward in certain instances. These include rewards to professional rescuers on land (normally a physician) and to rescuers at sea. In both instances the costs of rescue are likely to be sufficiently high to discourage rescue unless the rescuer anticipates compensation.
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003Edward E. Leamer NBER Working Paper Series. 1994. w4753.
A free trade agreement supports global free trade since trade barriers tend to divert trade in favor of members, but not reduce imports. The term: 'mutual assured deterrence' is used to refer to a regional free trade association that has the feature that no member can gain individually from the imposition of a barrier against a non- member. Mutual assured deterrence is shown to be possible for a surprisingly rich set of partners. A customs union is compatible with global free trade if the vast majority of trade takes place naturally within the confines of the association. A customs union that is likely to have this property would combine countries to form a nearly exact economic replica of the globe. The economic combination of Mexico and the United States doesn't form a replica of the global economy because, compared with Asia, North America has relatively high capital per worker even after adding the Mexican workforce. However, NAFTA does seem to have the property of mutual assured deterrence, and may for that reason amount to a commitment to global free trade as well as regional free trade.
Опубликовано на портале: 06-10-2003Lucian Arye Bebchuk, Andrew T. Guzman NBER Working Paper Series. 1998. w6521.
В статье Бебчака и Газмана проводится анализ эффектов, связанных с законодательством о проведении транснациональных банкротств. Сравниваются два режима: территориальный и универсальный. Территориальный режим подразумевает рассмотрение активов фирмы-должника в соответствии с их юрисдикцией, т. е. применение норм того законодательства, где расположены активы фирмы в момент начала процедуры банкротства. Универсальный же режим предполагает, что независимо от местоположения активов фирм применяется единое законодательство. Территориальный режим ведет к неэффективному распределению капитала между странами. В статье анализируется, кто выигрывает от того, что действует режим территориальный, почему действует именно этот режим, ведь он приводит к потерям в совокупном благосостоянии, и что нужно предпринять, чтобы достичь режима универсальности.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003Philippe Bacchetta, Eric van Wincoop NBER Working Paper Series. 2002. w9039.
Nominal rigidities due to menu costs have become a standard element in closed economy macroeconomic modeling. The "New Open Economy Macroeconomics" literature has investigated the implications of nominal rigidities in an open economy context and found that the currency in which prices are set has significant implications for exchange rate pass-through to import prices, the level of trade and net capital flows, and optimal monetary and exchange rate policy. While the literature has exogenously assumed in which currencies goods are priced, in this paper autors solve for the equilibrium optimal pricing strategies of firms. Autors find that the higher the market share of an exporting country in an industry, and the more differentiated its goods, the more likely its exporters will price in the exporter's currency. Country size and the cyclicality of real wages play a role as well, but are empirically less important. Autors also show that when a set of countries forms a monetary union, the new currency is likely to be used more extensively in trade than the sum of the currencies it replaces.
Опубликовано на портале: 20-07-2004Luis Felipe Cespedes, Roberto Chang, Andres Velasco NBER Working Paper Series. 2000. No. 7840.
В статье анализируется связь между обменным курсом и балансом активов и пассивов и влияние этой связи на макроэкономические показатели в малой открытой экономике. Из-за высокой степени долларизации обязательств, обесценение национальной валюты, с одной стороны, снижает чистую стоимость компаний (net worth), что порождает финансовую хрупкость частного сектора. Это ведет к ограничению инвестиций. С другой стороны, девальвация приводит к расширению выпуска и росту отдачи от инвестиций, что также является компонентом чистой стоимости компании. В работе показывается, что негативный внешний шок может быть усилен эффектом баланса (balance sheet effect). В результате выпуск и инвестиции снижаются. При фиксированном курсе это падение сильнее, чем при плавающем. Таким образом, гибкий курс является лучим "амортизатором" внешних реальных шоков, даже несмотря на значительный эффект баланса.
Опубликовано на портале: 14-03-2005Ross Levine NBER Working Paper Series. 2002. No. 9138.
For over a century, economists and policy makers have debated the relative merits of bank-based versus market-based financial systems. Recent research, however, argues that classifying countries as bank-based or market is not a very fruitful way to distinguish financial systems. This paper represents the first broad, cross-country examination of which view of financial structure is more consistent with the data. The results indicate that although overall financial development is robustly linked with economic growth, there is no support for either the bank-based or market-based view.
Опубликовано на портале: 07-10-2003Jeremy Berkowitz, Michelle J. White NBER Working Paper Series. 2002. No. 9010.
В статье Берковица и Уайта анализируется влияние института банкротства на доступность кредитов для мелких фирм. Законодательство о банкротстве, как правило, разделяет процедуры, применяемые к корпорациям и отдельным индивидам. Согласно американскому законодательству к индивидам и мелким фирмам применяются индивидуальные процедуры банкротства (personal bankruptcy procedures), то есть выдача кредита мелкой фирме эквивалентна выдаче кредита ее владельцу как частному лицу, который в случае банкротства будет отвечать в рамках имущества, превышающего «неприкосновенный» уровень (exemption level). Чем выше этот уровень, тем выше стимулы объявления себя банкротом у мелких фирм, тем ниже предложение кредитов и выше спрос на кредиты, и как следствие частота отказов в выдаче кредитов мелким фирмам. Таким образом, небольшие фирмы будут получать мелкие займы под более высокие проценты. Авторы смоделировали эту ситуацию и протестировали модель для Соединенных Штатов.