NBER Working Paper Series
Опубликовано на портале: 11-08-2004Frederic S. Mishkin NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. No. 8617.
Статья предлагает обзор механизмов трансмиссии денежно-кредитной политики. Помимо стандартного процентного канала, обсуждается вопрос влияния монетарной политики на экономику через цены различных активов (акций, реального имущества, валюты), которые влияют на решения фирм и домохозяйств относительно уровня инвестиций и потребления. Несмотря активы как каналы трансмиссии играют важную роль в экономике, попытки Центральных банков таргетировать эти показатели могут приводить к негативным результатам.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003Peter J. Klenow, David Hummels NBER Working Paper Series. 2002. w8712.
Not surprisingly, big countries trade more than small countries. In this paper autors use data on shipments by 110 exporters to 59 importers in 5,000 product categories to ask: how? Do big countries trade larger quantities of a common set of goods (the intensive margin), a larger set of goods (the extensive margin), or higher quality goods? Autors find that the extensive margin accounts for two-thirds of the greater exports of larger economies, and one-third of the greater imports of larger economies. Richer countries export more units at higher prices. These calculations are useful for distinguishing features of trade models that correspond more or less well to the data. Models with Armington national product differentiation do not feature the extensive margin, and wrongly predict that greater output will be accompanied by worse terms of trade. "Krugman" style models with firm level product differentation fare better, but must be modified to include quality differentiation and fixed costs of trading to match all of the facts. Estimates based on these modifications imply that differences in goods' quality could be the proximate cause of about 25% of country differences in real income per worker.
Опубликовано на портале: 24-12-2003Douglas A. Irwin NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. w8692.
The United States came close to complete autarky in 1808 as a result of a self-imposed embargo on international shipping from December 1807 to March 1809. Monthly prices of exported and imported goods reveal the embargo's striking effect on commodity markets and allow a calculation of its welfare effects. A simple general equilibrium calculation suggests that the embargo cost about 8 percent of America's 1807 GNP, at a time when the trade share was about 13 percent (domestic exports and shipping earnings). The welfare cost was lower than the trade share because the embargo did not completely eliminate trade and because domestic producers successfully shifted production toward previously imported manufactured goods.
The World Income Distribution [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 16-11-2004Daron K. Acemoglu, Jaume Ventura NBER Working Paper Series. 2001.
We show that even in the absence of diminishing returns in production and techno-logical spillovers, international trade leads to a stable world income distribution. This is because specialization and trade introduce de facto diminishing returns: countries that accumulate capital faster than average experience declining export prices, depressing the rate of return to capital and discouraging further accumulation. Because of constant re-turns to capital accumulation from a global perspective time-series behavior of the world economy is similar to that of existing endogenous growth models, with the world growth rate determined by policies, savings and technologies. Because of diminishing returns to capital accumulation at the country level, the cross-sectional behavior of the world economy is similar to that of existing exogenous growth models: cross-country variation in economic policies, savings and technology translate into cross-country variation in incomes, and country dynamics exhibit conditional convergence as in the Solow-Ramsey model. The dispersion of the world income distribution is determined by the forces that shape the strength of the terms of trade effects the degree of openness to international trade and the extent of specialization. Finally, we provide evidence that countries accumulating faster experience a worsening in their terms of trade. Our estimates imply that, all else equal, a 1 percentage point faster growth is associated with approximately a 0.7 percentage point decline in the terms of trade.
Trade, Growth and the Environment [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003Brian R. Copeland, M. Scott Taylor NBER Working Paper Series. 2003. w9823.
For the last ten years environmentalists and the trade policy community have engaged in a heated debate over the environmental consequences of liberalized trade. The debate was originally fueled by negotiations over the North American Free Trade Agreement and the Uruguay round of GATT negotiations, both of which occurred at a time when concerns over global warming, species extinction and industrial pollution were rising. Recently it has been intensified by the creation of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and proposals for future rounds of trade negotiations. The debate has often been unproductive. It has been hampered by the lack of a common language and also suffered from little recourse to economic theory and empirical evidence. The purpose of this essay is set out what we currently know about the environmental consequences of economic growth and international trade. We critically review both theory and empirical work to answer three basic questions. What do we know about the relationship between international trade, economic growth and the environment? How can this evidence help us evaluate ongoing policy debates? Where do we go from here?
Trade Integration and Risk Sharing [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003Aart Kraay, Jaume Ventura NBER Working Paper Series. 2002. w8804.
What are the effects of increased trade in goods and services on the trade balance? Autors study the effects of reducing transport costs in a Ricardian model with complete asset markets. Trade integration has three effects on the structure of the economy: a reduction in the home bias in consumption, an increase in the degree of international competition in goods markets, and a reduction in real exchange rate volatility. The reduction in the home bias increases the volatility of the trade balance regardless of the source of shocks. Except for the case where supply shocks lead to counter-cyclical trade balances, (i) the increase in international competition also increases the volatility of the trade balance; and (ii) the reduction in real exchange rate volatility increases the volatility of the trade balance if risk aversion is low but lowers it if risk aversion is high. The opposite applies when supply shocks lead to counter-cyclical trade balances. Autors calibrate the model to U.S. data and provide a quantitative assessment of the effects of increased trade in services on the trade balance.
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003Anne O. Krueger NBER Working Paper Series. 1997. w5896.
Ideas with regard to trade policy and economic development have changed radically since the 1950s. Then and now, it was recognized that trade policy was central to the overall design of policies for economic development. But in the early days, there was a broad consensus that trade policy for development should be based on `import-substitution.' By this was meant that domestic production of import-competing goods should be started and increased to satisfy the domestic market under incentives provided through whatever level of protection against imports, or even import prohibitions, was necessary to achieve it. It was thought that import substitution in manufactures would be synonymous with industrialization, which in turn was seen as the key to development. The contrast with views today is striking. It is now widely accepted that growth prospects for developing countries are greatly enhanced through an outer-oriented trade regime and fairly uniform incentives (primarily through the exchange rate) for production across exporting and import competing goods. This paper addresses the changes in thought and policy. What was the contribution of economic research to the sea change in thinking, policy prescriptions, and politicians' acceptance of the need for reform? What sorts of economic research best informed the policy process? In a nutshell, how did we learn? In this paper, I first sketch the initial approach to trade policy in early development research and thought. Next, consideration is given to the evolution of thought, research, and experience with respect to trade and development over the next several decades, and to the `conventional wisdom' of the 1990s. Finally, the role of research and the sorts of research that proved most fruitful in guiding policy and changing the consensus is considered.
Trade Policy and Industrial Sector Responses: Using Evolutionary Models to Interpret the Evidence [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003Erkan Erdem, James R. Tybout NBER Working Paper Series. 2003. w9947.
Firm- and plant-level empirical studies typically find that trade liberalization squeezes price-cost margins among import-competing firms, that this heightened competitive pressure induces productivity gains among these same firms, and that further efficiency gains come from market share reallocations. Using a computable industrial evolution model to simulate the dynamic effects of import competition, we demonstrate what types of managerial behavior, long-term transition paths and welfare effects are consistent with this set of stylized facts.
Опубликовано на портале: 24-12-2003Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg, Nina Pavcnik NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. w8575.
Starting in 1985, Colombia experienced gradual trade liberalization that culminated in the drastic tariff reductions of 1990-91. This paper exploits these trade reforms to investigate the relationship between protection and wages. The focus of the analysis is on relative wages, defined as industry wage premiums relative to the economy-wide average wage. Using the June waves of the Colombian National Household Survey, we first compute wage premiums for the period 1984-98, adjusting for a series of worker characteristics, job and firm attributes, and informality. We find that industry wage premiums in Colombia exhibit remarkably less persistence over time than U.S. wage premiums. Similarly, measures of trade protection are less correlated over time than in the U.S. data, indicating that as a result of trade liberalization the structure of protection has changed. Regressions of wage premiums on tariffs, without industry fixed effects, produce a negative relationship between protection and wages; workers in protected sectors earn less than workers with similar observable characteristics in unprotected sectors. With fixed effects the results are reversed: Trade protection is found to increase relative wages. The effect is economically significant: Elimination of tariffs in an industry with an average level of protection in 1984 would lead to a 4% wage decline in this industry. For the most protected industries the effect increases to 7.3%. We also find that - in contrast to the U.S. - sectors with high import penetration in Colombia pay higher wages; nevertheless, regressions with industry fixed effects indicate that an increase of imports in a particular sector is associated with lower wages. The differences between the results with and without fixed effects are indicative of the importance of (time-invariant) political economy factors as determinants of protection. Further issues concerning the effects of trade liberalization, such as the relevance of time-variant political economy factors, the importance of employment guarantees, liberalization induced productivity changes, and the interplay of trade and labor reforms, will be investigated in a sequel paper.
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003Richard B. Freeman NBER Working Paper Series. 2003. w10000.
The rules governing trade and capital flows have been at the center of controversy as globalization has proceeded. One reason is the belief that trade and capital flows have massive effects on the labor market -either positive, per the claims of international financial institutions and free trade enthusiasts, or negative, per the ubiquitous protestors at WTO, IMF, and World Bank meetings demanding global labor standards. Comparing the claims made in this debate with the outcomes of trade agreements, this paper finds that the debate has exaggerated the effects of trade on economies and the labor market. Changes in trade policy have had modest impacts on labour market. Other aspects of globalization -immigration, capital flows, and technology transfer -- have greater impacts, with volatile capital flows creating great risk for the well-being of workers. As for labor standards, global standards do not threaten the comparative advantage of developing countries nor do poor labor standards create a race to the bottom.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003Kala Krishna, Abhiroop Mukhopadhyay, Cemile Yavas NBER Working Paper Series. 2002. w9086.
This paper explains the differential impacts of trade on countries in terms of institutional differences which result in factor market distortions. Autors modify the Ricardian, Specific Factor and Hecksher Ohlin models of trade to capture these. Trade has both terms of trade effects and output effects. Both work to raise welfare in an undistorted economy. In a distorted economy, price effects work to improve welfare, while output effects work to reduce it. Large distorted countries are more likely to lose from trade as beneficial price effects are lower. In addition the greater the substitutability between goods, the more likely it is that welfare rises through trade.
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003Gordon H. Hanson, Raymond J. Mataloni, Matthew J. Slaughter NBER Working Paper Series. 2003. w9723.
In recent decades, growth of overall world trade has been driven in large part by the rapid growth of trade in intermediate inputs. Much of this input trade involves multinational firms locating input processing in their foreign affiliates, thereby creating global vertical production networks. In this paper, authors use firm-level data on U.S. multinationals to examine trade in intermediate inputs for further processing between parent firms and their foreign affiliates. Authors estimate affiliate demand for imported inputs as a function of host-country and industry trade costs, factor prices, and other variables. Among author's main findings are that demand for imported inputs is higher when affiliates face lower trade costs, lower wages for less-skilled labor (both in absolute terms and relative to wages for more-skilled labor), and lower corporate income taxes. These results contrast with many findings in previous research.
Опубликовано на портале: 17-09-2004Olivier Jean Blanchard NBER Working Paper Series. 2000. No. 7550.
The answer to the question in the title is: A lot. In this essay, I argue that the history of macroeconomics during the 20th century can be divided in three epochs: Pre 1940. A period of exploration, where macroeconomics was not macroeconomics yet, but monetary theory on one side, business cycle theory on the other. A period during which all the right ingredients, and quite a few more, were developed. But also a period where confusion reigned, because of the lack of an integrated framework. From 1940 to 1980. A period of consolidation. A period during which an integrated framework was developed starting with the IS-LM, all the way to dynamic general equilibrium models and used to clarify the role of shocks and propagation mechanisms in fluctuations. But a construction with an Achille's heel, namely too casual a treatment of imperfections, leading to a crisis in the late 1970s. Since 1980. A new period of exploration, focused on the role of imperfections in macroeconomics, from the relevance of nominal price setting, to incompleteness of markets, to asymmetric information, to search and bargaining in decentralized markets. Exploration often feels like confusion. But behind it may be one of the most productive periods of research in macroeconomics.
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003Donald R. Davis, David E. Weinstein NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. w8543.
In the field of international trade, data analysis has traditionally had quite modest influence relative to that of pure theory. At one time, this might have been rationalized by the paucity of empirics in the field or its weak theoretical foundations. In recent years empirical research has begun to provide an increasingly detailed view of the determinants of trade relations. Yet the field as a whole has been slow to incorporate these findings in its fundamental worldview. In this paper, we outline and extend what we view as key robust findings from the empirical literature that should be part of every international economists working knowledge.
Опубликовано на портале: 24-12-2003Philippe Bacchetta, Eric van Wincoop NBER Working Paper Series. 2002. No. 9352.
Тот факт, что потребительские цены реагируют на изменение номинального курса в меньшей степени, чем цены импорта имеет несколько объяснений в экономической теории. Одно из них базируется на допущении, что издержки распространения занимают существенную долю в цене. Данная статья предлагает другое объяснение, которое является дополнением к уже существующим. В работе рассматривается модель, в которой фирмы импортируют товары промежуточного потребления и создают из них товары конечного пользования. Если эти фирмы начинают конкурировать между собой на внутреннем рынке, их оптимальная стратегия – устанавливать цены в национальной валюте, в то время как поставщикам промежуточных товаров оптимальней устанавливать цены в своей валюте. В этом случае изменение номинального курса полностью отражается на динамике цен импорта и никак не влияет на потребительские цены.