NBER Working Paper Series
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003Donald R. Davis, David E. Weinstein NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. w8516.
The dominant paradigm of world trade patterns posits two principal features. Trade between North and South arises due to traditional comparative advantage, largely determined by differences in endowment patterns. Trade within the North, much of it intra-industry trade, is based on economies of scale and product differentiation. The paradigm specifically denies an important role for endowment differences in determining North-North trade. This paper provides the first sound empirical examination of this question. We demonstrate that trade in factor services among countries of the North is systematically related to endowment differences and large in economic magnitude. Intra-industry trade, rather than being a puzzle for a factor endowments theory, is instead the conduit for a great deal of this factor service trade.
Опубликовано на портале: 10-12-2003Sebastian Edwards NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. W8274 .
In this paper autor investigate the historical record of countries that have lived under a 'dollarized' monetary system. As it turns out, this is a very small group of counties, most of which have operated under very special circumstances, and for which there are very limited data. The results reported in this paper suggests that, when compared to other countries, the dollarized nations have: (a) have had significantly lower inflation (b) grown at a significantly lower rate(c) have had a similar fiscal record (d) have not been spared from major current account reversals. Additionally, autor's analysis of Panama's case suggests that external shocks result in greater costs - in terms of lower investment and growth - in dollarized than in non-dollarized countries.
Dollarization, Inflation and Growth [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 05-10-2004Sebastian Edwards, I. Igal Magendzo NBER Working Paper Series. 2001.
In this paper we analyze the macroeconomic record of dollarized economies. In particular, we investigating whether, as its supporters' claim, dollarization is associated with lower inflation and faster growth. We analyze this issue by using a matching estimator technique developed in the training evaluation literature. Our findings suggest that inflation has been significantly lower in dollarized nations than in non-dollarized ones. We also find that dollarized nations have had a lower rate of economic growth than non-dollarized ones. Finally, we find that macroeconomic volatility is not significantly different across dollarized and non-dollarized economies. We conjecture that the lower rate of economic growth in dollarized countries is due, at least in part, to these countries' difficulties in accommodating external disturbances, such as major term of trade and capital flows shocks.
Do Rich and Poor Countries Specialize in a Different Mix of Goods? Evidence from Product-Level US Trade Data [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003Peter K. Schott NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. w8492.
Unit values of US imports at the product level reveal a substantial degree of vertical product differentiation among countries exporting to the US. This specialization is not apparent by looking solely at trade flows. Two trends stand out. First, the portion of US import products originating in either rich or poor countries exclusively has fallen dramatically as US trade barriers have fallen, from 41% in 1972 to 17% in 1994. Indeed, by 1994, nearly three quarters the products imported into the US were sourced simultaneously from rich and poor countries. Second, within-product unit value dispersion is positively and significantly correlated with source country income: men's shirts imported from Japan in 1994, for example, are about thirty times as expensive as shirts originating in the Philippines. These unit value premia, and their increase over time, are consistent with the factor proportions framework but convey a stark warning: industry trade flow data alone are too coarse to meet the assumptions underlying most tests of trade theory.
Опубликовано на портале: 11-08-2004Olivier Jean Blanchard, Philippe Weil NBER Working Paper Series. 1992. w3992.
Can government roll their debt over in dynamically efficient economies, and thus avoid the need to raise taxes? While the answer is a clear "no" under certainty, it depends, under uncertainty, on whether public debt provides intergenerational insurance. When it does not, rollover is not possible, even if the rate of return on one-period bonds is below the growth rate. When it does, debt rollover may be possible if the return on one-period bonds is above the growth rate.
Economic Analysis of Accident Law [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 06-10-2003Steven Shavell NBER Working Paper Series. 2003. No. 9483.
Данная статья является частью будущей книги автора по экономическому анализу права и включает в себя первые шесть ее глав. Работа посвящена анализу права, регулирующего несчастные случаи. Сначала рассматривается влияние правил на стимулы снижения риска несчастного случая, затем на компенсацию жертве ущерба и распределение риска, а в финале рассматриваются административные издержки правовой системы.
Опубликовано на портале: 14-03-2005David E. Bloom, David Canning, Jaypee Sevilla NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. No. 8685.
For decades, economists and social thinkers have debated the influence of population change on economic growth. Three alternative positions define this debate: that population growth restricts, promotes, or is independent of economic growth. Proponents of each explanation can find evidence to support their cases. All of these explanations, however, focus on population size and growth. In recent years, however, the debate has under-emphasized a critical issue, the age structure of the population (that is, the way in which the population is distributed across different age groups), which can change dramatically as the population grows. Because people's economic behavior varies at different stages of life, changes in a country's age structure can have significant effects on its economic performance. Nations with a high proportion of children are likely to devote a high proportion of resources to their care, which tends to depress the pace of economic growth. By contrast, if most of a nation's population falls within the working ages, the added productivity of this group can produce a 'demographic dividend' of economic growth, assuming that policies to take advantage of this are in place. In fact, the combined effect of this large working-age population and health, family, labor, financial, and human capital policies can create virtuous cycles of wealth creation. And if a large proportion of a nation's population consists of the elderly, the effects can be similar to those of a very young population. A large share of resources is needed by a relatively less productive segment of the population, which likewise can inhibit economic growth. After tracing the history of theories of the effects of population growth, this report reviews evidence on the relevance of changes in age structure for economic growth. It also examines the relationship between population change and economic development in particular regions of the world: East Asia; Japan; OECD, North America and Western Europe; South-central and Southeast Asia; Latin America; Middle East and North Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. Finally, it discusses the key policy variables that, combined with reduced fertility and increases in the working-age population, have contributed to economic growth in some areas of the developing world.
Опубликовано на портале: 17-09-2004Robert J. Barro NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. w8330.
In 1997-98, five east Asian countries - Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea, the Philippines, and Thailand - experienced sharp currency and banking crises. The contraction of real GDP was severe in relation to the previous history and in comparison with five east Asian countries that were less affected by the financial crisis. Recoveries in the five crisis countries in 1999-2000 were strong in most cases, but it is unclear whether the pre-crisis growth paths will be reattained. Indications for permanently depressed prospects come from the sharp reductions in investment ratios, which have recovered only slightly, and the lowered stock-market prices. A panel analysis for a broad group of economies shows that a combined currency and banking crisis typically reduces economic growth over a five-year period by 2% per year, compared with 3% per year for the 1997-98 crisis in east Asia. The broader analysis found no evidence that financial crises had effects on growth that persisted beyond a five-year period.
Опубликовано на портале: 05-10-2004Alan B. Krueger, Mikael Lindahl NBER Working Paper Series. 2000.
This paper tries to reconcile evidence from the microeconometric and empirical macro growth literatures on the effect of schooling on income and GDP growth. Much microeconometric evidence suggest that education is an important causal determinant of income for individuals within countries. At a national level, however, recent studies have found that increases in educational attainment are unrelated to economic growth. This finding appears to be a spurious result of the extremely high rate of measurement error in first-differenced cross-country education data. After accounting for measurement error, the effect of changes in educational attainment on income growth in cross-country data is at least as great as microeconometric estimates of the rate of return to years of schooling. Another finding of the macro growth literature - that economic growth depends positively on the initial stock of human capital - is shown to result from imposing linearity and constant-coefficient assumptions on the estimates. These restrictions are often rejected by the data, and once either assumption is relaxed the initial level of education has little effect on economic growth for the average country.
Опубликовано на портале: 15-11-2004Geert Bekaert, Campbell R. Harvey, Christian Lundblad NBER Working Paper Series. 2000. w7763.
We provide an analysis of real economic growth prospects in emerging markets after financial liberalizations. In contrast with previous research, we identify the financial liberalization dates and examine the influence of liberalizations while controlling for a number of other macroeconomic and financial variables. Our work also introduces an econometric methodology that allows us to use extensive time-series as well as cross-sectional information for our tests. We find across a number of different specifications that financial liberalizations are associated with significant increases in real economic growth.
EMU: Ready, or Not? [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003Maurice Obstfeld NBER Working Paper Series. 1999. w6682.
In this paper I focus on two specific hazard areas in the transition from Stage Two to Stage Three of European economic and monetary union (EMU), as well as on some key problems of Stage Three that EMU's monetary and fiscal structures appear ill-prepared to handle. The transitional hazards are of considerable theoretical as well as policy interest: the best way to coordinate monetary stances and lock exchange parties for a smooth switch from eleven national currencies to a single joint currency. A third problems, one that is central for EMU and to any currency union, lies behind the difficulty of the transition: the possibility of nationally asymmetric real shocks. I review that topic in the context of Ireland's recent experience. The paper goes on to discuss weaknesses in the structure of Stage Three, already much noted, connected with the provision of lender of last resort facilities in the euro zone and the framework for supervising financial institutions. The deficit and debt limits embodies in the excessive deficits procedure of the Maastrich treaty and the subsequent Stability and Growth Pact have been justified by the threat high debts might pose to the stability of the euro zone's financial markets. I consider the past and prospective fiscal adjustments of the EMU 11, and suggest these might pose future difficulties for macroeconomic policy and growth.
Endogenous Political Institutions [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 07-10-2003Philippe Aghion, Alberto Alesina, Francesco Trebbi NBER Working Paper Series. 2002. No. 9006.
Цель работы состоит в выявлении ряда характеристик общества, определяющих его эндогенный выбор политических институтов. В контексте риска «тирании большинства» авторы анализируют оптимальное конституционное устройство, обеспечивающее для меньшинства возможность блокировать законы.
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003Jeffrey A. Frankel, Andrew K. Rose NBER Working Paper Series. 2000. w7857.
Gravity-based cross-sectional evidence indicates that currency unions stimulate trade; cross-sectional evidence indicates that trade stimulates output. This paper estimates the effect that currency union has, via trade, on output per capita. Authors use economic and geographic data for over 200 countries to quantify the implications of currency unions for trade and output, pursuing a two-state approach. Author's estimates at the first stage suggest that belonging to a currency union more than triples trade with the other members of the zone. Moreover, there is no evidence of trade-diversion. Our estimates at the second stage suggest that every one percent increase in trade (relative to GDP) raises income per capita by roughly 1/3 of a percent over twenty years. Authors combine the two estimates to quantify the effect of currency union on output. Author's results support the hypothesis that the beneficial effects of currency unions on economic performance come through the promotion of trade, rather than through a commitment to non-inflationary monetary policy, or other macroeconomic influences.
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003Junichi Goto, Koichi Hamada NBER Working Paper Series. 1995. w5325.
This paper assesses the economic conditions for Asian countries to cope with the formation of EU and NAFTA. Is it desirable for them to form their own trading area? And, if desirable, is it better to have a closed one like the EAEC or a more open one like the APEC? Relying on public economics and the calculus of participation combined with the Dixit-Stiglitz-Krugman framework, we find the following: (i) the development of the EAEC by the leadership of Malaysia would be a natural response of Asian countries against two big blocs in the world, EU and NAFTA; (ii) it is natural for the United States to discourage this move because the formation of an economic bloc in Asia will have a negative economic impact on the non- Asian countries; (iii) it is natural for the U.S. to propose an opposing coalition like the APEC to nullify the possible economic impact of the EAEC; but (iv) perhaps the APEC will be a good roundabout way towards international free trade.
Опубликовано на портале: 11-08-2004José Manuel Campa, Linda Goldberg NBER Working Paper Series. 2002. No. 8934.
Оптимальность режима обменного курса, равно как и эффективность монетарной политики, зависит от тесноты связи между колебаниями валютного курса и ценами импорта. В литературе часто рассматриваются следующие вопросы: какой механизм формирования цен импорта превалирует – в валюте страны-производителя (PCP – producer-currency pricing) или в валюте потребителей (LCP – local-currency pricing); является ли эффект переноса изменений курса на цены товаров (exchange rate pass-through) эндогенным по отношению к макроэкономическим условиям. В статье делается попытка ответить на эти вопросы путем эмпирической проверки на межстрановых данных и данных временных рядов двадцати пяти стран ОЭСР. Анализ выявил наличие частичного эффекта pass-through. В долгосрочном периоде механизм PCP является более распространенным для большей части импортных товаров. В работе также показано, что более высокая инфляция и волатильность обменного курса не являются основными факторами усиления эффекта pass-through. Таким факторами являются микроэкономическая среда и структура импорта.