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В разделе собрана информация о статьях по экономике, социологии и менеджменту. Во многих случаях приводятся полные тексты статей. (подробнее...)

NBER Working Paper Series

Опубликовано на портале: 16-12-2003
Rudiger Dornbusch NBER Working Paper Series. 1980.  No. 0493.
This chapter addresses the question of what contribution finance theory can make to an explanation of exchange rate movements. It is an attempt to integrate ideas of finance theory such as portfolio diversification, efficiency, rationality,and use of information in a reasonably eclectic macroeconomic model and to study in that broadened context the determination of exchange rate.
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Опубликовано на портале: 11-11-2004
Sebastian Edwards, Miguel A. Savastano NBER Working Paper Series. 1999.  w7228.
Exchange rates have been at the center of economic debates in emerging economies. Issues related to the feasibility of flexible exchange rates, the relationship between exchange rate volatility and growth, and the role of exchange rate overvaluation in recent crises, among other, have been extensively discussed during the last few years. In this paper we address some of the most important exchange rate-related issues in emerging economies. In particular, we deal with: (a) the merits of alternative exchange rate regimes: (b) the extent to which purchasing power parity holds in the long run in these countries; and (c) models to assess real exchange rate overvaluation. We also discuss future areas for research on exchange rates in the emerging nations.
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Опубликовано на портале: 05-02-2007
John H. Cochrane, Christopher R. Taber, Lance Lochner NBER Working Paper Series. 1998.  No. 6384.
This paper develops and estimates an overlapping generations general equilibrium model of labor earnings, skill formation and physical capital accumulation with heterogeneous human capital. The model analyzes both schooling choices and post-school on-the-job investment in skills in a framework in which different schooling levels index different skills. A key insight in the model is that accounting for the distinction between skill prices and measured wages is important for analyzing the changing wage structure, as they often move in different directions. New methods are developed and applied to estimate the demand for unobserved human capital and to determine the substitution relationships in aggregate technology among skills and capital. We estimate skill-specific human capital accumulation equations that are consistent with the general equilibrium predictions of the model. Using our estimates, we find that a model of skill-biased technical change with a trend estimated from our aggregate technology is consistent with the central feature of rising wage equality measured by the college-high school wage differential and by the standard deviation of log earnings over the past 15 years. Immigration of low skill workers contributes little to rising wage inequality. When the model is extended to account for the enlarged cohorts of the Baby Boom, we find that the same parameter estimates of the supply functions for human capital that are used the explain the wage history of the last 15 years also explain the last 35 years of wage inequality as documented by Katz and Murphy (1992).
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Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003
Karolina Ekholm, Rikard Forslid, James R. Markusen NBER Working Paper Series. 2003.  w9517.
Export-platform foreign direct investment in which the affiliate's output is (largely) sold in third markets rather than in the parent or host markets has received empirical attention recently, but little theoretical analysis. This paper is an attempt to make some sense of this phenomenon. Autors use a three-region model in which there are two identical, large, high-cost economies and a small low-cost economy. Pure export-platform production arises in a symmetric case, when a firm in each of the high-cost economies has a plant at home, and a plant in the low-cost country (the South) to serve the other high-cost country. This occurs when trade costs for intermediates (components) and plant-fixed costs are moderate and the South has a moderate cost advantage in assembly. Another interesting and empirically important case arises when there is trade liberalization between one of the high-cost countries and the small, low-cost country. The outside high-cost country may wish to build a branch plant inside the free trade area due to market size, but chooses the low-cost country on the basis of cost. Or a firm headquartered in the large country inside the free-trade area might build a single plant in its low-wage partner in order to serve their joint free-trade area and to export to the outside high-cost country.
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Опубликовано на портале: 16-03-2005
Craig A. Burnside, Martin Stewart Eichenbaum NBER Working Paper Series. 1994.  No. 4675.
This paper analyzes the role of variable capital utilization rates in propagating shocks over the business cycle. To this end we formulate and estimate an equilibrium business cycle model in which cyclical capital utilization rates are viewed as a form of factor hoarding. We find that variable capital utilization rates substantially magnify and propagate the impact of shocks to agents' environments. The strength of these propagation effects is evident in the dynamic response functions of various economy wide aggregates to shocks in agents' environments, in the statistics that we construct to summarize the strength of the propagation mechanisms in the model and in the volatility of exogenous technology shocks needed to explain the observed variability in aggregate U.S. output. Other authors have argued that standard Real Business Cycle (RBC) models fail to account for certain features of the data because they do not embody quantitatively important propagation mechanisms. These features include the observed positive serial correlation in the growth rate of output, the shape of the spectrum of the growth rate of real output and the correlation between the forecastable component of real output and various other economic aggregates. Allowing for variable capital utilization rates substantially improves the ability of the model to account for these features of the data.
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Опубликовано на портале: 17-09-2004
Rudiger Dornbusch NBER Working Paper Series. 2001.  w8324.
In the aftermath of emerging market crises from Russia to Asia and Latin America, there is a quest for better monetary arrangements that are more crisis-proof. Fixed rates are out, flexible rates are in with a policy focus on inflation targeting. But there is, of course, the alternative of abolishing exchange rates all together. This paper revisits the issue of dollarization or currency boards to review what arguments in the debate stand up. The case for flexible exchange rates emphasizes the need for a tool to accomplish relative price adjustment. This paper argues that in an intertemporal perspective most shocks require financing in the capital market rather than adjustment. Moreover, countries frequently do not use their flexible rate to play a cyclical role and, as a result, only a pay a premium for the option to depreciate but do not take advantage of the flexibility; on the contrary, they engineer systematic overvaluation in the context of inflation targeting.
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Опубликовано на портале: 14-03-2005
Stephen G. Cecchetti, Stefan Krause NBER Working Paper Series. 2001.  No. 8354.
Over the past twenty years, macroeconomic performance has improved markedly in industrialized and developing countries alike. Both inflation and real growth are more stable now than they were in the 1980s. This stability has been accompanied by dramatic changes in financial structure. We examine the connection between these concurrent events using data from 23 developed and emerging markets countries. There are a number of possible explanations for the widespread improvement in economic outcomes over the past two decades. There is the very real possibility that the world has become a more stable place. Alternatively, monetary policymakers may have become more skillful in carry out their stabilization objectives. That is, the monetary policy of the 1990s may have been more efficient than it was in the 1980s. We provide evidence that policy has in fact improved, suggesting that a rise in the competence of central bankers. But the ability of policymakers to carry out their job depends crucially on their having the tools necessary to reduce inflation and output volatility. The transmission of these interest rate movements to domestic output and prices depends on the structure of the country's banking system and financial markets. We show that a reduction in direct state ownership of banking system assets and the introduction of explicit deposit insurance can help explain the simultaneous improvement in the efficiency of monetary policy and stabilization of the macroeconomy.
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Опубликовано на портале: 17-09-2004
Peter L. Rousseau, Richard Sylla NBER Working Paper Series. 2001.  w8323.
This paper brings together two strands of the economic literature -- that on the finance-growth nexus and that on capital market integration -- and explores key issues surrounding each strand through both institutional/country histories and formal quantitative analysis. We begin with studies of the Dutch Republic, England, the U.S., France, Germany and Japan that span three centuries, detailing how in each case the emergence of a financial system jump-started economic growth. Using a cross-country panel of seventeen countries covering the 1850-1997 period, we then uncover a robust correlation between financial factors and economic growth that is consistent with a leading role for finance, and show that these effects were strongest over the 80 years preceding the Great Depression. Next, we show that countries with more sophisticated financial systems engage in more trade and appear to be better integrated with other economies by identifying roles for both finance and trade in the convergence of interest rates that occurred among the Atlantic economies prior to 1914. Our results suggest that the growth and increasing globalization of these economies might indeed have been 'finance-led.'
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Опубликовано на портале: 15-11-2004
Peter L. Rousseau, Richard Sylla NBER Working Paper Series. 2001.  w8323.
This paper brings together two strands of the economic literature -- that on the finance-growth nexus and that on capital market integration -- and explores key issues surrounding each strand through both institutional/country histories and formal quantitative analysis. We begin with studies of the Dutch Republic, England, the U.S., France, Germany and Japan that span three centuries, detailing how in each case the emergence of a financial system jump-started economic growth. Using a cross-country panel of seventeen countries covering the 1850-1997 period, we then uncover a robust correlation between financial factors and economic growth that is consistent with a leading role for finance, and show that these effects were strongest over the 80 years preceding the Great Depression. Next, we show that countries with more sophisticated financial systems engage in more trade and appear to be better integrated with other economies by identifying roles for both finance and trade in the convergence of interest rates that occurred among the Atlantic economies prior to 1914. Our results suggest that the growth and increasing globalization of these economies might indeed have been 'finance-led.'
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Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003
Jiandong Ju, Kala Krishna NBER Working Paper Series. 1998.  w6857.
Authors develop a model to study the behavior of firms in a Free Trade Area with Rules of Origin and the consequences of this behavior on the market equilibrium and outcome. Authors show that firms will choose to specialize, and that an FTA with strict ROOs on the intermediate good raises imports and hence improves market access in the final good market reduces imports and hence harms market access in the intermediate good market. More restrictive ROOs on the final good first raise and then lower imports of the final good lower than raise imports of the intermediate good. Their turning point is common so that imports of the final good are maximized and imports of the intermediate good are minimized at a common level of restrictiveness of the rules of origin. Authors show that our model can be reinterpreted to show that more restrictive ROOs on the final good first improves and then harms the fortunes of labor, and to cast light on a particular policy to improve market access. Other problems with a similar structure could also be analyzed using our techniques; authors expect similar results.
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Опубликовано на портале: 26-10-2004
Benoit Mulkay, Bronwyn H. Hall, Jacques Mairesse NBER Working Paper Series. 2000.  w8038.
This paper is a contribution to the small but growing literature that compares the investment and R&D behavior of manufacturing firms in large developed countries that have varying financial and capital market institutions. Specifically, we look at two similar samples of French and United States firms during the period 1982-1993. We estimate a dynamic specification of a simple error-corrected investment model for both ordinary investment and for R&D investment, a model that incorporates both output (sales or turnover) and cash flow as predictors for investment. Our focus is on two comparisons: France versus United States and physical investment versus R&D investment. In general, we do not find any significant differences between the two countries in the long run effects of demand (output) on investment. However, we do find that cash flow or profits appear to have a much larger impact on both R&D and investment in the U.S. Except for the well-known difference in the serial correlation of the two types of capital spending, we reject any significant differences between investment and R&D behavior for each country; the major differences are between countries.
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Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003
Pol Antras NBER Working Paper Series. 2003.  w9740.
Roughly one-third of world trade is intrafirm trade. This paper starts by unveiling two systematic patterns in the volume of intrafirm trade. In a panel of industries, the share of intrafirm imports in total U.S. imports is significantly higher, the higher the capital intensity of the exporting industry. In a cross-section of countries U.S. imports is significantly higher, the higher the capital-labor ratio of the exporting country. I then show that these patterns can be rationalized in a theoretical framework that combines a Grossman-Hart-Moore view of the firm with a Helpman-Krugman view of international trade. In particular an incomplete-contracting, property-rights model of the boundaries of the firm, which I then incorporate into a standard trade model with imperfect competition and product differentiation. The model pins down the boundaries of multinational firms as well as the international location of production, and it is shown to predict the patterns of intrafirm trade identified above. Econometric evidence reveals that the model is consistent with other qualitative and quantitative features of the data.
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Опубликовано на портале: 18-08-2004
William Easterly, Sergio Rebelo NBER Working Paper Series. 1994.  w4499.
This paper describes the empirical regularities relating fiscal policy variables, the level of development and the rate of growth. We employ historical data, recent cross-section data, and newly constructed public investment series. Our main findings are: (i) there is a strong association between the development level and the fiscal structure: poor countries rely heavily on international trade taxes, while income taxes are only important in developed economies; (ii) fiscal policy is influenced by the scale of the economy, measured by its population; (iii) investment in transport and communication is consistently correlated with growth while the effects of taxation are difficult to isolate empirically.
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Опубликовано на портале: 24-12-2003
Sebastian Edwards, Eduardo Levy-Yeyati NBER Working Paper Series. 2003.  W9867 .
In this paper we analyze empirically the effect of terms of trade shocks on economic performance under alternative exchange rate regimes. We are particularly interested in investigating whether terms of trade disturbances have a smaller effect on growth in countries with a flexible exchange rate regime, than in countries with a more rigid exchange rate arrangement. We also analyze whether negative and positive terms of trade shocks have asymmetric effects on growth, and whether the magnitude of these asymmetries depends on the exchange rate regime. We find evidence suggesting that terms of trade shocks get amplified in countries that have more rigid exchange rate regimes. We also find evidence of an asymmetric response to terms of trade shocks: the output response is larger for negative than for positive shocks. Finally, we find evidence supporting the view that, after controlling for other factors, countries with more flexible exchange rate regimes grow faster than countries with fixed exchange rates.
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Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003
Robert E. Lipsey, Zadia Feliciano NBER Working Paper Series. 2002.  w9122.
Using U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis data for individual foreign acquisitions and new establishments in the U.S from 1988 to 1998, and aggregate data for 1980 to 1998, autors find that acquisitions and establishments of new firms tend to occur in periods of high U.S. growth and take place mainly in industries in which the investing country has some comparative advantage in exporting. New establishments are largely in industries of U.S. comparative disadvantage, and the relation of U.S. comparative advantage to takeovers is also negative, but never significant. High U.S. stock prices, industry profitability, and industry growth discourage takeovers. High U.S interest rates and high investing country growth and currency values encourage takeovers. Direct investments in acquisitions and new establishments thus tend to flow in the same direction as trade. They originate in countries with comparative advantages in particular industries and flow to industries of U.S. comparative disadvantage.
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