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В разделе собрана информация о статьях по экономике, социологии и менеджменту. Во многих случаях приводятся полные тексты статей. (подробнее...)

NBER Working Paper Series

Опубликовано на портале: 31-08-2003
Oliver Hart, John Moore NBER Working Paper Series. 1998.  No. 6726.
In the last few years a new area has emerged in economic theory, which goes under the heading of "incomplete contracting." However, almost since its inception, the theory has been under attack for its lack of rigorous foundations. In this paper, authors evaluate some of the criticism that have been made of the theory, in particular, those in Maskin and Tirole (1998a). In doing so, Hart and Moore develop a model that provides a rigorous foundation for the idea that contracts are incomplete.
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Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003
Kevin O'Rourke, Jeffrey G. Williamson NBER Working Paper Series. 2002.  w8955.
A recent endogenous growth literature has focused on the transition from a Malthusian world where real wages were linked to factor endowments, to one where modern growth has broken that link. In this paper autor presents evidence on another, related phenomenon: the dramatic reversal in distributional trends - from a steep secular fall to a steep secular rise in wage-land rent ratios - which occurred some time early in the 19th century. What explains this reversal? While it may seem logical to locate the causes in the Industrial Revolutionary forces emphasized by endogenous growth theorists, we provide evidence that something else mattered just as much: the opening up of the European economy to international trade.
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Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003
James R. Markusen, Keith E. Maskus NBER Working Paper Series. 2001.  w8334.
Beginning in the early 1980s, theoretical analyses have incorporated the multinational firm into the microeconomic, general-equilibrium theory of international trade. Recent advances indicate how vertical and horizontal multinationals arise endogenously as determined by country characteristics, including relative size and relative endowment differences, and trade and investment costs. Results also characterize the relationship between foreign affiliate production and international trade in goods and services. In this paper, we survey some of this recent work, and note the testable predictions generated in the theory. In the second part of the paper, we examine empirical results that relate foreign affiliate production to country characteristics and trade/investment cost factors. We also review findings from analyses of the pattern of substitutability or complementarity between trade and foreign production.
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Опубликовано на портале: 18-08-2004
Michael J. Boskin, Lawrence J. Lau NBER Working Paper Series. 2000.  w8023.
Using revised, updated, and consistent annual post-World War II data from the G-7 countries developed by us, we econometrically estimate and test alternative explanations of the structure of economic growth in a model with three inputs tangible capital, labor, and human capital which permits the identification of the magnitudes of and biases in both returns to scale and technical progress. We find: 1. Technical progress is simultaneously purely tangible capital and human capital augmenting, that is, generalized Solow-neutral.' This finding provides an alternative explanation of the slow pace of convergence in real GDP per capita: the benefits from technical progress depend directly on the levels of tangible and human capital; countries with higher levels of capital realize higher rates of technical progress.2. Technical progress has been capital, not labor, saving and thus is not a cause of systemic structural unemployment. 3. Technical progress accounts for more than 50 percent of the economic growth of the G-7 countries except Canada. Tangible capital input is next most important; together with technical progress, they account for three quarters or more of the growth of real output in the G-7 countries, except Canada. 4. The most important source of the growth slowdown since the mid-1970's decline in the rate of capital (both tangible and human)-augmenting technical progress.
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Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003
Alan M. Taylor NBER Working Paper Series. 2002.  w9326.
Recent research in international economic history has opened up new lines of enquiry on the origins of globalization, as well as its causes and consequences. Such findings have the potential to inform contemporary debates and this paper considers what lessons this body of historical work has for our current understanding of the linkages between trade and development.
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Опубликовано на портале: 15-11-2004
Larry Jones, Rodolfo Manuelli, Henry Siu NBER Working Paper Series. 2000.  w7633.
Our purpose in this paper is to present a class of convex endogenous growth models, and to analyze their performance in terms of both growth and business cycle criteria. The models we study have close analogs in the real business cycle literature. In fact, we interpret the exogenous growth rate of productivity as an endogenous growth rate of human capital. This perspective allows us to compare the strengths of both classes of models. In order to highlight the mechanism that gives endogenous growth models the ability to improve upon their exogenous growth relatives, we study models that are symmetric in terms of human and physical capital formation -- our two engines of growth. More precisely, we analyze models in which the technology used to produce human capital is identical to the technologies used to produce consumption and investment goods, and in which the technology shocks in the two sectors are perfectly correlated. We find that endogenous growth models can generate levels of labor volatility close to those observed in the data, as well as positively correlated growth rates of output. We also find that these models outperform a related exogenous growth version in most dimensions.
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Опубликовано на портале: 15-07-2004
Larry Jones, Rodolfo Manuelli, Henry Siu NBER Working Paper Series. 2000.  No. 7633.
Our purpose in this paper is to present a class of convex endogenous growth models, and to analyze their performance in terms of both growth and business cycle criteria. The models we study have close analogs in the real business cycle literature. In fact, we interpret the exogenous growth rate of productivity as an endogenous growth rate of human capital. This perspective allows us to compare the strengths of both classes of models. In order to highlight the mechanism that gives endogenous growth models the ability to improve upon their exogenous growth relatives, we study models that are symmetric in terms of human and physical capital formation -- our two engines of growth. More precisely, we analyze models in which the technology used to produce human capital is identical to the technologies used to produce consumption and investment goods, and in which the technology shocks in the two sectors are perfectly correlated. We find that endogenous growth models can generate levels of labor volatility close to those observed in the data, as well as positively correlated growth rates of output. We also find that these models outperform a related exogenous growth version in most dimensions.
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Growth Theory [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 15-11-2004
Boyan Jovanovic NBER Working Paper Series. 2000.  w7468.
Growth theory offers two plausible explanations of growth. One stresses the supply of productive ideas and holds that the industrial revolution had to wait until we had thought up enough inventions to lift us into the era of modern growth. It says, roughly, that the growth of living standards depends on the growth of science. The other explanation stresses incentives: Growth could begin only when hard work and business enterprise were free of heavy taxation, of social stigma and of other interference by the government and the church. The first branch of theory is well developed; it is the second that now challenges the growth economist to explain not just growth, but the evolution of political and religious institutions and social attitudes as well.
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Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003
Kevin O'Rourke NBER Working Paper Series. 2003.  w9872.
The aim of the paper is to see whether individuals' attitudes towards globalization are consistent with the predictions of Heckscher-Ohlin theory. The theory predicts that the impact of being skilled or unskilled on attitudes towards trade and immigration should depend on a country's skill endowments, with the skilled being less anti-trade and anti-immigration in more skill-abundant countries (here taken to be richer countries) than in more unskilled-labour-abundant countries (here taken to be poorer countries). These predictions are confirmed, using survey data for 24 countries. Being high-skilled is associated with more pro-globalization attitudes in rich countries; while in some of the very poorest countries in the sample being high-skilled has a negative (if statistically insignificant) impact on pro-globalization sentiment. More generally, an interaction term between skills and GDP per capita has a negative impact in regressions explaining anti-globalization sentiment. Furthermore, individuals view protectionism and anti-immigrant policies as complements rather than as substitutes, which is what simple Heckscher-Ohlin theory predicts.
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Опубликовано на портале: 27-10-2004
Peter L. Rousseau NBER Working Paper Series. 2002.  w9333.
This paper uses standard tools of empirical macro economics to examine how well the existing historical time series support a role for financial factors in real sector activity in four economies that experienced what are widely considered to be 'financial revolutions' over the past 400 years. The evidence presented for the Dutch Republic (1600-1794), England (1700-1850), the United States (1790-1850), and Japan (1880-1913) suggests that the emergence of financial instruments, institutions, and markets played a central role in promoting trade, commerce, and industrialization. Cross- section regressions with a wider set of countries for the post-1850 period offer additional support for the Schumpeterian view of finance in growth. Though limitations of the available data argue for a cautious interpretation, the findings are consistent with the traditional and more descriptive analyses of these events in the economic history literature, and with results obtained for the post-1960 period by modern macro economists.
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Опубликовано на портале: 27-12-2006
Daron K. Acemoglu, Joshua D. Angrist NBER Working Paper Series. 1999.  No. 7444.
Average schooling in US states is highly correlated with state wage levels, even after controlling for the direct effect of schooling on individual wages. We use an instrumental variables strategy to determine whether this relationship is driven by social returns to education. The instrumentals for average schooling are derived from information on the child labor laws and compulsory attendance laws that affected men in our Census samples, while quarter of birth is used as an instrument for individual schooling. This results in precisely estimated private returns to education of about seven percent, and small social returns, typically less than one percent, that are not significantly different from zero.
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Опубликовано на портале: 19-10-2004
Daniel R. Feenberg, James Michael Poterba NBER Working Paper Series. 1993.  No. 4229.
This paper uses tax return data for the period 1951-1990 to investigate the rising share of adjusted gross income (AGI) that is reported on very high income tax returns. We find that most of the increase in the share of AGI reported by high-income taxpayers is due to an increase in reported income for the one quarter of one percent of taxpayers with the highest AGIs. The share of total AGI reported by these taxpayers rose slowly in the early 1980s, and increased sharply in 1987 and 1988. This pattern suggests that at least part of the increase in the income share of high-AGI taxpayers was due to the changing tax incentives that were enacted in the 1986 Tax Reform Act. By lowering marginal tax rates on top-income households from 50% to 28%, TRA86 reduced the incentive for these households to engage in tax avoidance activities. We also find substantial differences in the growth of the income share of the highest one quarter of one percent of taxpayers, and the share of other very high income taxpayers. This suggests that the increasing inequality of reported incomes at very high levels may not be driven by the same factors that have generated widening wage inequality throughout the income distribution and over a longer time period.
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Опубликовано на портале: 16-11-2004
Abhijit Banerjee, Esther Duflo NBER Working Paper Series. 2000.  w7793.
This paper describes the correlations between inequality and the growth rates in cross-country data. Using non-parametric methods, we show that the growth rate is an inverted U-shaped function of net changes in inequality: Changes in inequality (in any direction) are associated with reduced growth in the next period. The estimated relationship is robust to variations in control variables and estimation methods. This inverted U-curve is consistent with a simple political economy model, although, as we point out, efforts to interpret this model causally run into difficult identification problems. We show that this non-linearity is sufficient to explain why previous estimates of the relationship between the level of inequality and growth are so different from one another.
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Опубликовано на портале: 17-09-2004
Michael Bruno, William Easterly NBER Working Paper Series. 1995.  No. 5209.
Recent literature suggests that long-run averages of growth and inflation are only weakly correlated and such correlation is not robust to exclusion of extreme inflation observations; inclusion of time series panel data has improved matters, but an aggregate parametric approach remains inconclusive. We propose a nonparametric definition of high inflation crises as periods when inflation is above 40 percent annually. Excluding countries with high inflation crises, we find no evidence of any consistent relationship between growth and inflation at any frequency. However, we find that growth falls sharply during discrete high inflation crises, then recovers surprisingly strongly after inflation falls. The fall in growth during crisis and recovery of growth after crisis tend to average out to close to zero (even slightly above zero), hence the lack of a robust cross-section correlation. Our findings could be consistent either with trend stationarity of output, in which inflation crises are purely cyclical phenomena, or with models in which crises have a favorable long-run purgative effect. Our findings do not support the view that reduction of high inflation carries heavy short-to-medium run output costs.
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Опубликовано на портале: 07-10-2003
Joshua Aizenman, Mark M. Spiegel NBER Working Paper Series. 2002.  No. 9324.
На основе подхода принципала-агента авторы моделируют использование концепции издержек на принуждение к исполнению прав собственности в анализе прямых иностранных инвестиций. Результаты модели тестируются на основе межстрановых данных для развивающихся стран. Показано, что индикатор степени коррупции (индекс Мауро) имеет обратную связь с уровнем инвестиционной активности.
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