NBER Working Paper Series
Опубликовано на портале: 15-11-2004Dani Rodrik NBER Working Paper Series. 2000. w7540.
This paper opens with a discussion of the types of institutions that allow markets to perform adequately. While we can identify in broad terms what these are, there is no unique mapping between markets and the non-market institutions that underpin them. The paper emphasizes the importance of local knowledge' and argues that a strategy of institution building must not over-emphasize best-practice blueprint' at the expense of experimentation. Participatory political systems are the most effective ones for processing and aggregating local knowledge. Democracy is a meta-institution for building good institutions. A range of evidence indicates that participatory democracies enable higher-quality growth.
Опубликовано на портале: 13-10-2004Ricardo J. Caballero, Mohamad L. Hammour NBER Working Paper Series. 2000.
A growing body of new research has emphasized the macroeconomic consequences of transactional impediments in factor markets, and their role in the recurrent restructuring requirements of modern economies. We first review the function institutional arrangements play in facilitating transactions and explore the macroeconomic consequences of poor institutions. As an application, we discuss the lessons that can be learnt from observed changes in the nature of unemployment in Europe. We then analyze the effect the institutional environment can have on macroeconomic restructuring. In light of this framework we revisit the question of the relationship between recessions and restructuring activity, and review the recent evidence of reduced restructuring following recessions. We also discuss corroborating evidence from merger waves' in the restructuring of corporate assets.
Опубликовано на портале: 07-10-2003Dennis William Carlton, Robert H. Gertner NBER Working Paper Series. 2002. No. 8796.
В работе анализируется противоречие между антимонопольным законодательством, пытающимся обеспечить статическую эффективность рынков, и законом об интеллектуальных правах собственности, связанным с динамическими аспектами конкуренции в научно-исследовательском секторе. Исследование проводится применительно к политике слияния. Поднимается вопрос о необходимости координации применения двух законов.
Опубликовано на портале: 10-12-2003Sebastian Edwards NBER Working Paper Series. 1998. No. 6756.
Current debates on globalization have tended to focus on financial market volatility and contagion. In fact, many proponents of the imposition of some form of capital restrictions in emerging markets have argued that these would help reduce or even eliminate spillover across emerging market. Although this has been an old concern among developing economies, it has become more generalized after the Mexican, East Asian and Russian crises. In this paper I use high frequency data on short term nominal interest rates during the 1990s in three Latin American countries Argentina, Chile and Mexico -- to analyze whether there has been volatility contagion from Mexico to the two South American nations. The results obtained from the estimation of augmented GARCH equations indicate, quite strongly, that while there has been volatility contagion from Mexico to Argentina, there has been no volatility contagion from Mexico to Chile. These results also indicate, however, that with the exception of a brief period in 1995, nominal interest rates have been more volatile in Chile than in Argentina. The results reported in this paper also indicate that interest rate differentials with respect to the US have tended to disappear somewhat slowly in both Chile and Argentina. Moreover, the estimation of rolling regressions for Chile indicate that after capital controls on capital inflows were imposed, interest rate differentials became more sluggish and tended to disappear more slowly than during the free capital mobility period.
Опубликовано на портале: 16-12-2003Giancarlo Corsetti, Paolo Pesenti NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. No. 8230.
This paper provides a baseline general-equilibrium model of optimal monetary policy among interdependent economies, with monopolistic firms that set prices one period in advance. Strict adherence to inward-looking policy objectives such as the stabilization of domestic output cannot be optimal when firms' markups are exposed to currency fluctuations. Such policies induce excessive volatility in exchange rates and foreign sales revenue, leading exporters to set higher prices in response to higher profit risk. In general, optimal rules trade off a larger domestic output gap against lower import prices. Monetary rules in a world Nash equilibrium lead to smaller exchange rate volatility relative to both inward-looking rules and discretionary policies, even when the latter do not suffer from any inflationary (or deflationary) bias. Gains from international monetary cooperation are related in a non-monotonic way to the degree of exchange rate pass-through.
Опубликовано на портале: 14-03-2005Hali J. Edison, Ross Levine, Luca Ricci, Torsten Slok NBER Working Paper Series. 2002. No. 9164.
This paper uses new data and new econometric techniques to investigate the impact of international financial integration on economic growth and also to assess whether this relationship depends on the level of economic development, financial development, legal system development, government corruption, and macroeconomic policies. Using a wide array of measures of international financial integration on 57 countries and an assortment of statistical methodologies, we are unable to reject the null hypothesis that international financial integration does not accelerate economic growth even when controlling for particular economic, financial, institutional, and policy characteristics.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003C. Fritz Foley, Mihir A. Desai, James R. Hines NBER Working Paper Series. 2002. w9115.
This paper analyzes the determinants of partial ownership of the foreign affiliates of U.S. multinational firms and, in particular, why partial ownership has declined markedly over the last 20 years. The evidence indicates that whole ownership is most common when firms coordinate integrated production activities across different locations, transfer technology, and benefit from worldwide tax planning. Since operations and ownership levels are jointly determined, it is necessary to use the liberalization of ownership restrictions by host countries and the imposition of joint venture tax penalties in the U.S. Tax Reform Act of 1986 as instruments for ownership levels in order to identify these effects. Firms responded to these regulatory and tax changes by expanding the volume of their intrafirm trade as well as the extent of whole ownership; four percent greater subsequent sole ownership of affiliates is associated with three percent higher intrafirm trade volumes. The implied complementarity of whole ownership and intrafirm trade suggests that reduced costs of coordinating global operations, together with regulatory and tax changes, gave rise to the sharply declining propensity of American firms to organize their foreign operations as joint ventures over the last two decades. The forces of globalization appear to have increased the desire of multinationals to structure many transactions inside firms rather than through exchanges involving other parties.
Опубликовано на портале: 11-11-2004Maurice Obstfeld NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. w8369.
This paper presents a broad overview of postwar analytical thinking on international macroeconomics, culminating in a more detailed discussion of very recent progress. Along the way, it reviews important empirical evidence that has inspired alternative modeling approaches, as well as theoretical and policy considerations behind developments in the field. The most recent advances in model building center on the 'new open economy macroeconomics,' which synthesizes Keynesian nominal rigidities, intertemporal approaches to open economy dynamics, and the effects of market structure on international trade.
International Technology Diffusion [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 24-12-2003Wolfgang Keller NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. w8573.
I discuss the concept and empirical importance of international technology diffusion from the point of view of recent work on endogenous technological change. In this literature, technology is viewed as technological knowledge. I first review the major concepts, and how international technology diffusion relates to other factors affecting economic growth in open economies. The following main section of the paper provides a review of recent empirical results on (i) basic results in international technology diffusion; (ii) the importance of specific channels of diffusion, in particular trade and foreign direct investment; (iii) the spatial distribution of technological knowledge, and (iv) other issues.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003Linda Goldberg, Michael W. Klein NBER Working Paper Series. 1999. w7196.
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has been growing rapidly, at a pace far exceeding the growth in international trade. Thus, a full understanding of the relationship between trade in goods and FDI is important for obtaining a complete picture of the extent and sources of international linkages. Autors investigate whether FDI serves as a complement to trade or a substitute for trade based on the effects identified by the Rybczynski theorem whereby an increase in a factor of production used intensively in one sector affects production both in that sector and in other sectors. Using detailed data on bilateral capital and trade flows between the United States and individual Latin American countries, autors examine the linkages between FDI into particular sectors of Latin American economies and the net exports of those and other manufacturing sectors. Autors find that FDI from the United States can lead to significant, and varied, shifts in the composition of activity in many Latin American countries and across many manufacturing industries.
Опубликовано на портале: 16-11-2004Robert J. Gordon NBER Working Paper Series. 2000. w7752.
This paper assesses the standard data on output, labor input, and capital input, which imply one big wave' in multi-factor productivity (MFP) growth for the United States since 1870. The wave-like pattern starts with slow MFP growth in the late 19th century, then an acceleration peaking in 1928-50, and then a deceleration to a slow rate after 1972 that returns to the poor performance of 1870-1891. A counterpart of the standard data is a mysterious doubling in the ratio of output to capital input when the postwar era is compared with 1870-1929. Three types of measurement adjustments are applied to the standard input data. Following the lead of Denison and Jorgenson-Griliches, adjustments for the changing composition (or quality') of labor and capital, currently published by the BLS back to 1948, are estimated for 1870-1948. These composition adjustments take into account the shifting mix of the labor force along the dimensions of education and age-sex composition, and of the capital stock between equipment and structures. Further adjustments are made to capital input data to allow retirement to vary with gross investment rather than to follow a fixed pattern depending only on age, and to add types of capital owned by the government that are particularly productive in the private sector. A new MFP series taking account of all these adjustments grows more slowly throughout, and the big wave' phenomenon is both flatter and extends back further in time to 1891. However, there is no solution to the post-1972 productivity slowdown, and in the new data MFP growth during 1972-96 proceeds at a pathetic 0.1 percent per year. A byproduct of the measurement adjustments is to solve completely the previous puzzle of the jump in the output-capital ratio; in the new data this ratio is actually lower in 1996 than in 1870. The primary substantive explanation for the big wave lies in the timing of inventions. MFP growth during the big wave' period benefited from the diffusion of four great clusters of inventions that dwarf today's information technology revolution in their combined importance. A complementary hypothesis is that the partial closing of American labor markets to immigration and of American goods markets to imports during the big wave period gave an artificial and temporary boost to real wages which fed back into boosting productivity growth, followed by a reopening that contributed to the post-1972 productivity slowdown.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003Douglas A. Irwin NBER Working Paper Series. 2002. w8739.
Recent research has documented a positive relationship between tariffs and growth in the late nineteenth century. Such a correlation does not establish a causal relationship between tariffs and growth, but it is tempting to view the correlation as constituting evidence that protectionist or inward-oriented trade strategies were successful during this period. This paper argues that such a conclusion is unwarranted and that the tariff-growth correlation should be interpreted with care. First, several individual country experiences in the late nineteenth century are not consistent with the view that import substitution promoted growth. For example, the two most rapidly expanding, high tariff countries of the period Argentina and Canada grew because capital imports helped stimulate export-led growth in agricultural staples products, not because of protectionist trade policies. Second, most land-abundant countries (such as Argentina and Canada) imposed high tariffs to raise government revenue, and revenue tariffs have a different structure than protective tariffs. The fact that labor-scarce, land-abundant countries had a high potential for growth and also tended to impose high revenue-generating tariffs confounds the inference that high tariffs were responsible for their strong economic performance during this period.
Investment, Fundamentals and Finance [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 17-09-2004Simon Gilchrist, Charles Himmelberg NBER Working Paper Series. 1998. No. 6652.
Financial variables such as cash flow and cash stocks are robust and quantitatively important explanatory variables for investment at the firm-level. A large body of recent empirical work attributes these findings to capital market imperfections. This interpretation is controversial, however, because even in the absence of capital market imperfections, such financial variables may appear as an explanatory variable for investment if they contain information about the expected marginal value of capital. In this paper, we show how structural models of investment with costly external finance can be used to identify and quantify the fundamental' versus the financial' determinants of investment. Our empirical results show that investment responds significantly to both fundamental and financial factors. Point estimates from our structural model imply that, for the average firm in our sample, financial factors raise the overall response of investment to an expansionary shock by 25%, relative to a baseline case where financial frictions are zero. Consistent with theory, small firms and firms without bond ratings show the strongest response to financial factors, while bond-rated firms show little if any response once we control for investment fundamentals.
Опубликовано на портале: 17-09-2004Matthew B. Canzoneri, Robert E. Cumby, Behzad T. Diba NBER Working Paper Series. 1998. No. 6471.
A new theory of price determination suggests that if primary surpluses are independent of the level of debt, the price level has to jump' to assure fiscal solvency. In this regime (which we call Fiscal Dominant), monetary policy has to work through seignorage to control the price level. If on the other hand primary surpluses are expected to respond to the level of debt in a way that assures fiscal solvency (a regime we call Money Dominant), then the price level is determined in more conventional ways. In this paper we develop testable restrictions that differentiate between the two regimes. Using post war data, we present what we think is overwhelming evidence that the United States is in a Money Dominant regime; even the post Reagan data (1980 to 1995) seem to support that contention.
Опубликовано на портале: 07-10-2003Diego Puga, Daniel Trefler NBER Working Paper Series. 2002. No. 9121.
В контексте подхода принципала-агента авторы анализируют процесс стимулирования и контроля над небольшими инновациями в технологии создания сложного продукта. На основе анализа данных ряда отраслей показывается взаимосвязь между организационной формой производства и процессами создания и управления знаниями.