NBER Working Paper Series
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003Assaf Razin, Chi-Wa Yuen NBER Working Paper Series. 1998. w5433.
Using a human capital based growth model, we show the essential role of labor mobility and cross-country tax harmonization in equalizing income levels of countries that start off from different initial income positions. Knowledge spillovers cum labor mobility are the driving forces behind the income level equalization process. In the absence of tax harmonization within an economic union, equality in income levels is not achievable. Coordination of educational subsidies necessary for the internalization of knowledge spillovers may or may not be necessary. These considerations constitute the basis for our efficient growth agenda for an economic union such as the EU.
Опубликовано на портале: 07-10-2003George A. Akerlof, Paul M. Romer NBER Working Paper Series. 1994. No. 1869.
Акерлоф и Ромер показали, что возможность использования механизма банкротства для получения прибыли одними (собственниками и менеджерами, преследующими единые цели) в ущерб другим (обществу в целом, т.е. происходит снижение общественного благосостояния) при определенных условиях, и назвали такое поведение собственников предприятий мародерством (looting). Авторы используют термин мародерство, потому что собственники и менеджеры принимают решения, осознавая влияние своих действий на общественное благосостояние. Авторы построили трехпериодную модель, описывающую выбор собственника между стратегией мародерства и стратегией максимизации стоимости фирмы в долгосрочной перспективе (true value of the thrift) при отсутствии неопределенности.
Опубликовано на портале: 13-10-2004Olivier Jean Blanchard NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. w8120.
Product and labor market deregulation are fundamentally about reducing and redistributing rents, leading economic players to adjust in turn to this new distribution. Thus, even if deregulation eventually proves beneficial, it comes with strong distribution and dynamic effects. The transition may imply the decline of incumbent firms. Unemployment may increase for a while. Real wages may decrease before recovering, and so on. To study these issues, we build a model based on two central assumptions: Monopolistic competition in the goods market, which determines the size of rents; and bargaining in the labor market, which determines the distribution of rents between workers and firms. We then think of product market regulation as determining both the entry costs faced by firms, and the degree of competition between firms. We think of labor market regulation as determining the bargaining power of workers. Having characterized the effects of labor and product market deregulation, we then use our results to study two specific issues. First, to shed light on macroeconomic evolutions in Europe over the last twenty years, in particular on the behavior of the labor share. Second, to look at political economy interactions between product and labor market deregulation.
Опубликовано на портале: 11-10-2004Alessandro Missale, Francesco Giavazzi, Pierpaolo Benigno NBER Working Paper Series. 1997. No. 6311.
This paper provides evidence on the behavior of public debt managers during fiscal" stabilizations in OECD countries over the last two decades. We find that debt maturity tends to" lengthen the more credible the program, the lower the long-term interest rate and the higher the" volatility of short-term interest rates. We show that this debt issuing strategy is consistent with" optimal debt management if information between the government and private investors is" asymmetric, as is usually the case at the outset of a stabilization attempt when private investors" may lack full confidence in the announced budget cuts.
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003Sanghamitra Das, James R. Tybout, Mark J. Roberts NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. No. 8629.
As the exchange rate, foreign demand, production costs and export promotion policies evolve, manufacturing firms are continually faced with two issues: Whether to be an exporter, and if so, how much to export. Authors develop a dynamic structural model of export supply that characterizes these two decisions and estimate the model using plant-level panel data on Colombian chemical producers. The model embodies uncertainty, plant-level heterogeneity in export profits, and sunk entry costs for plants breaking into foreign markets. Author's estimates, and the simulation exercises that they support, yield several implications. First, entry costs are typically large, but vary greatly across producers. Second, there is substantial cross-plant heterogeneity in gross expected export profit streams. Third, these large entry costs make expectations about future exporting conditions important for many producers, so changes in the exchange rate regime that are credible induce much more entry than those that are not. Fourth, however, most of the entry and exit takes place among marginal exporters who contribute little to aggregate export revenues. Finally, subsidies on export earnings have a much larger impact on export revenues (per dollar spent) than subsidies that reduce the entry costs faced by new exporters.
Опубликовано на портале: 19-10-2004George J. Borjas, Valerie A. Ramey NBER Working Paper Series. 2000. No. 7799.
This paper examines the link between interindustry wage differentials and subsequent growth of industry variables such as employment, GDP and labor productivity. We find that industries that paid higher than average wages in 1959 experienced significantly lower employment growth and GDP growth in the subsequent 30 to 40 years, while at the same time experiencing higher-than-average growth in the capital-labor ratio and in labor productivity. We argue that the evidence is best explained by a non-competitive model of the interindustry wage structure, as both firms and the market respond to the wage rigidity implied by the long-run persistence of the interindustry wage structure.
Опубликовано на портале: 16-12-2003Henrik Horn, James A. Levinsohn NBER Working Paper Series. 1997. No. 6077.
This paper is about the interactions between what is traditionally considered trade policy and a narrow but important aspect of competition policy, namely merger policy. We focus on links between merger policies and trade liberalization. We put special emphasis on the topical issue of the role that international agreements such as the GATT play when merger policies are nationally chosen. Of particular concern is the possibility that liberalization of international trade will induce countries to increasingly use competition policies to promote national interests at the expense of others. We examine the incentives for a welfare maximizing government to make such a substitution. Interpreting merger policy as a choice of degree of industrial concentration, we investigate how the merger policy that is optimal from the point of view of an individual country is affected by restrictions on the use of tariffs and export subsidies.
Опубликовано на портале: 07-10-2003John Philip Rust, George Hall NBER Working Paper Series. 2002. No. 8883.
Авторами рассматривается модель, согласно которой структура торговли за товар или актив эндогенно задана. Продавцы и покупатели имеют возможность выбрать между двумя видами посредников: технический посредник (дилер или брокер) и рыночный посредник (специалист). Показывается, что оптимальный по Парето результат достигается в случае, когда рыночный посредник «выкидывает» технического посредника с рынка и монополизирует свою деятельность.
Modern Hyper- and High Inflations [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 16-12-2005Stanley Fisher, Ratna Sahay, Carlos A. Vegh NBER Working Paper Series. 2002. P. 8930.
Since 1947, hyperinflations (by Cagan's definition) in market economies have been rare. Much more common have been longer inflationary processes with inflation rates above 100 percent per annum. Based on a sample of 133 countries, and using the 100 percent threshold as the basis for a definition of very high inflation episodes, this paper examines the main characteristics of such inflations. Among other things, we find that (i) close to 20 percent of countries have experienced inflation above 100 percent per annum; (ii) higher inflation tends to be more unstable; (iii) in high inflation countries, the relationship between the fiscal balance and seigniorage is strong both in the short and long-run; (iv) inflation inertia decreases as average inflation rises; (v) high inflation is associated with poor macroeconomic performance; and (vi) stabilizations from high inflation that rely on the exchange rate as the nominal anchor are expansionary.
Опубликовано на портале: 11-11-2004Frederic S. Mishkin, Miguel A. Savastano NBER Working Paper Series. 2000. w7617.
The paper examines possible monetary policy strategies for Latin America that may help lock-in the gains in the fight against inflation attained by the region during the 1990s. We start by calling for a refocus of the debate about the conduct of monetary policy away from thinking that it is about whether the nominal exchange rate should be fixed or flexible. Instead we argue that the focus should be on whether the monetary policy regime appropriately constrains discretion in monetary policymaking. This focus suggest that there are three basic frameworks that deserve serious discussion as possible, long-run strategies for monetary policy in Latin America: a hard exchange-rate peg, monetary targeting, and inflation targeting. We look at the advantages and disadvantages of each of these strategies and then examine the recent track record of monetary policy in some Latin American countries for clues as to which of the three strategies might be best suited to economies in the region.
Monitoring, Motivation and Management: The Determinants of Opportunistic Behavior in a Field Experiment [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 07-10-2003Daniel Nagin, James Rebitzer, Seth Sanders, Lowell Taylor NBER Working Paper Series. 2002. No. 8811.
В статье рассматривается модель рационального обманщика (“rational cheater model”), отражающая оппортунистическое поведение работников. Модель была протестирована с помощью двойного эксперимента вслепую, который позволяет наблюдать эффект от изменений в объеме мониторинга оппортунистического поведения работников. Авторы пришли к выводу, что значительная часть работников ведет себя согласно модели рационального обманщика.
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003James R. Markusen, Keith E. Maskus NBER Working Paper Series. 1999. w7163.
An important component of Robert Lipsey's work has been his research on multinational firms, and his careful documentation of their behavior in terms of production and intra-firm trade. In this paper, authors extend recent theory referred to as the knowledge-capital model, which simultaneously generates motives for both horizontal and vertical multinational production. Autors use this model to derive predictions about foreign affiliates' pattern of production for local markets versus production for exports as functions of country characteristics such as market sizes, size differences, and relative endowment differences. These predictions are then taken to data on affiliate production and trade. Results confirm several hypotheses. The ratio of production for export sales to production for local sale by affiliates of foreign multinationals depends negatively on market size, investment and trade costs in the host country, and positively on the relative skilled-labor abundance of the parent country (skilled-labor scarcity of the host country).
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003James R. Markusen, Anthony J. Venables NBER Working Paper Series. 1996. w5483.
Adapting our earlier model of multinationals, authors address policy issues involving wages and labor skills. Multinational firms may arise endogenously, exporting their firm-specific knowledge capital to foreign production facilities, and geographically fragmenting production into skilled and unskilled-labor-intensive activities. Multinationals thus alter the nature of trade, from trade in goods (produced with both skilled and unskilled labor) to trade in skilled- labor-intensive producer services. Results shed light on several policy questions. First, multinationals increase the skilled/unskilled wage gap in the high income country and, under some circumstances, in the low income country as well. Second, there is a sense in which multinationals export low skilled jobs to the lower income country. Third, trade barriers do not protect unskilled labor in the high income countries. By inducing a regime shift to multinationals, trade barriers protect the abundant factor, at least in the high income country and possibly in both countries. Fourth, a convergence in country characteristics induces the entry of multinationals and raises the skilled-unskilled wage gap in the initially large and skilled-labor-abundant country, and possibly in the small skilled-labor-scarce country as well.
Опубликовано на портале: 14-03-2005William D. Nordhaus NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. No. 8097.
The present study is the second is a series of three papers devoted to issues in the measurement of productivity and productivity growth. The contributions of the present paper are three. First, it introduces a new approach to measuring industrial productivity based on income-side data that are published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The data are internally consistent in that both inputs and outputs are income-side measures of value added, whereas the usual productivity measures combine expenditure-side output measures with income-side input measures. Second, because of interest in the 'new economy,' we have also constructed a set of new-economy accounts. For the purpose of this study, we define the new economy as machinery, electric equipment, telephone and telegraph, and software. Finally, because of concerns about poor deflation in the current output measures, this study constructs a new output concept called 'well-measured output,' which includes only those sectors for which output is relatively well measured. We present a brief summary of the behavior of the alternative measures.
Norms and the Theory of the Firm [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 05-02-2003Oliver Hart NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. No. 8286.
This paper discusses some of the attempts economists have made in the last ten years or so to integrate norms into the theory of the firm. The paper argues that (a) although norms are undoubtedly very important both inside and between firms, incorporating them into the theory has been very difficult and is likely to continue to be so in the near future; (b) so far norms have not added a great deal to our understanding of such issues as the determinants of firm boundaries (the make-or-buy decision) that is, at this point a norm-free of the firm and a norm-rich theory of the firm dont seem to have very different predictions.