NBER Working Paper Series
One Decade of Inflation Targeting in the World: What Do We Know and What Do We Need to Know? [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 11-08-2004Frederic S. Mishkin, Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. No. 8397.
В работе изучается опыт разработки и применения политики инфляционного таргетирования в некоторых странах, рассматриваются результаты политики с точки зрения состояния экономики. Также анализируются структурные различия экономик, которые вели и тех, которые не вели подобную политику. Отдельное внимание уделяется некоторым нерешенным вопросам разработки и применения политики инфляционного таргетирования и их роль в монетарной политике.
Опубликовано на портале: 07-10-2003Oliver Hart, John Moore NBER Working Paper Series. 1999. No. 7388.
Авторы предложили модель иерархии, основанную на распределении власти. Собственники фирмы имеют неограниченную власть в принятии решений, но они ограничены временем и способностью использовать данную власть. Таким образом, рождается цепочка делегирования власти на более низкие ступени организации, т. е. получается, что часть агентов будет вовлечена в координацию, а часть в специализацию. Выдвинутая теория проливает свет на природу организации, оптимальную степень демократии и границы фирмы.
On the Duration of Trade [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003Tibor Besedes, Thomas J. Prusa NBER Working Paper Series. 2003. w9936.
This paper employs survival analysis to study the duration of US imports. Authors find that the median duration of exporting a product to the US is very short, on the order to two to four years. Author's results also indicate that there is negative duration dependence meaning that if a country is able to survive in the exporting market for the first few years it will face a very small probability of failure and will export the product for a long period of time. This result holds across countries and industries. Authors find that our results are not only robust to aggregation but are strengthened by aggregation. That is, as authors aggregate from product level trade data to SITC industry level trade data the estimated survival increases. They rank countries by their survival experience and show that our rankings are strongly correlated with the rankings in Feenstra and Rose (2002), implying that product cycle followers also experience particularly short duration.
Опубликовано на портале: 05-10-2004Charles M. Engel NBER Working Paper Series. 1999. No. 7067.
This paper investigates the behavior of the foreign exchange risk premium in two recent two-country intertemporal-optimizing general equilibrium models with sticky nominal prices: Obstfeld-Rogoff (1998) and Devereux-Engel (1998). The foreign exchange risk premium in any general equilibrium model arises from the correlation of the exchange rate with consumption. In flexible price models, that requires correlation of monetary and output supply shocks. In sticky-price models, the correlation arises endogenously because monetary shocks cause output and consumption to change. The size of the risk premium depends on how prices are set (in producers' currencies versus consumers' currencies), and on the form of the money demand function. In some cases, the risk premium generated by the model is quite large.
Опубликовано на портале: 05-10-2004Alan J. Auerbach, Kevin A. Hassett NBER Working Paper Series. 2000. No. 7821.
Under the new view' of dividend taxation developed in Auerbach (1979), Bradford (1981) and King (1977) the marginal source of finance for new investment projects is retained earnings. In this case, the tax advantage of retentions precisely offsets the double taxation of subsequent dividends: taxes on dividends have no impact on the investment incentives of firms using retentions as a marginal source of funds and paying dividends with residual cash flows. We find evidence that dividends do respond to investment and cash flow for the nonfinancial corporate sector as a whole in a manner consistent with the new view. We also find that this dividend pattern is weaker for firms with better access to capital markets, as measured by bond rating and the number of analysts following them. Finally, we find that, although new share issues and repurchases respond to the same firm characteristics as dividends do, the pattern of these responses is consistent with a broader interpretation of the new view that preserves the main result of dividend-tax irrelevance with respect to the cost of capital.
Open-Economy Inflation Targeting [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 20-07-2004Lars E.O. Svensson NBER Working Paper Series. 1998. No. 6545.
В статье рассматривается модель малой отрытой экономики. Для построения функций совокупного спроса и предложения используются концепции микроэкономической теории. В работе сравниваются стратегии таргетирования индекса потребительских цен и внутренней инфляции, жесткого и гибкого таргетирования, а также функция реакции инфляционного таргетирования с правилом Тейлора. Стратегия гибкого таргетирования является успешной в ограничении колебаний не только инфляции, но и разрыва выпуска (относительно выпуска при полной занятости), а также реального курса. Для анализа влияния денежно-кредитной политики на совокупный спрос строится индекс (monetary conditions index), который имеет два отличия от аналогичных индексов. В нем, во-первых, комбинируется долгосрочная, а не краткосрочная, реальная ставка процента с реальным курсом. Во-вторых, учитываются ожидаемые, а не текущие значения этих переменных.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003Robert E. Baldwin NBER Working Paper Series. 2003. w9578.
There is still disagreement among economists concerning how a country's international economic policies and its rate of economic growth interact, despite a number of multi-country case studies utilizing comparable analytical frameworks, numerous econometric studies using large cross-country data sets, and important theoretical advances in growth theory. This paper briefly surveys this literature and points out the main reasons for the disagreements. Particular attention is given to an important study by Francisco Rodriguez and Dani Rodrik (2001) criticizing the conclusion of a number of recent multi-country statistical studies that openness is associated with higher growth rates. Rodriguez and Rodrik show that openness simply in the sense of liberal trade policies seems to be no guarantee of faster growth. However, the conclusion of most researchers involved in either country studies or multi-country statistical tests that lower trade barriers in combination with a stable and non-discriminatory exchange-rate system, prudent monetary and fiscal policies and corruption-free administration of economic policies promote economic growth still seems to remain valid.
Опубликовано на портале: 05-10-2004Charles M. Engel NBER Working Paper Series. 2000. No. 7889.
This paper examines optimal exchange-rate policy in two-country sticky-price general equilibrium models in which households and firms optimize over an infinite horizon in an environment of uncertainty. The models are in the vein of the new open-economy macroeconomics' as exemplified by Obstfeld and Rogoff (1995, 1998, 2000). The conditions under which fixed or floating exchange rates yield higher welfare depend on the exact nature of price stickiness and on the degree of risk-sharing opportunities. This paper presents some preliminary empirical evidence on the behavior of consumer prices in Mexico that suggests failures of the law of one price are important. The evidence on price setting and risk-sharing opportunities is not refined enough to make definitive conclusions about the optimal exchange-rate regime for that country.
Опубликовано на портале: 03-05-2005Emmanuel Saez NBER Working Paper Series. 2005. No. 9046.
This paper analyzes optimal progressive capital income taxation in an infinite horizon model where individuals differ only through their initial wealth. We show that, in that context, progressive taxation is a much more powerful and efficient tool to redistribute wealth than linear taxation on which previous literature has focused. We consider progressive capital income tax schedules taking a simple two-bracket form with an exemption bracket at the bottom and a single marginal tax rate above a time varying exemption threshold. Individuals are taxed until their wealth is reduced down to the exemption threshold. When the intertemportal elasticity of substitution is not too large and the top tail of the initial wealth distribution is infinite and thick enough, the optimal exemption threshold converges to a finite limit. As a result, the optimal tax system drives all the large fortunes down a finite level and produces a truncated long-run wealth distribution. A number of numerical simulations illustrate the theoretical result.
Опубликовано на портале: 07-10-2003Josh Lerner NBER Working Paper Series. 2002. No. 8977.
В работе исследуются воздействия на инновации изменений в патентном законодательстве на основе данных по шестидесяти странам за 150 летний период. Анализ показывает, что усиление защиты прав патентообладателей приводило к большим эффектам в странах с низким первоначальным уровнем защиты и более высоким уровнем экономического развития. Эндогенный характер данных изменений моделируется посредством подхода инструментальных переменных.
Опубликовано на портале: 13-04-2004John Y. Campbell, Pierre Perron NBER Working Paper Series. 1991. Vol. 6.
This paper is an introduction to unit root econometrics as applied in macroeconomics. The paper first discusses univariate time series analysis, emphasizing the following topic: alternative representations of unit root processes, unit root testing procedures, the power unit root tests, and the interpretation of unit root econometrics in finite samples. A second part of the paper tackles similar issues in a multivariate context where cointegration is now the central concept. The paper reviews representation, testing, and estimation of multivariate time series models with some unit roots. Two important themes of this paper are first, the importance of correctly specifying deterministic components of the series; and second, the usefulness of unit root tests not as method to uncover some "true relation" but as practical devices that can be used to impose reasonable restrictions on the data and to suggest what asymptotic distribution theory gives the best approximation to the finite-sample distribution of coefficient estimates and test statistics.
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003James R. Tybout NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. w8418.
By relaxing the assumption of perfect competition, the 'new' trade theory has generated a rich body of predictions concerning the effects of commercial policy on price-cost mark-ups, firm sizes, exports, productivity and profitability among domestic producers. This paper critically assesses the plant- and firm-level evidence on these linkages. Several robust findings are identified. First, mark-ups generally fall with import competition, but it is not clear whether this phenomenon reflect the elimination of market power or the creation of negative economic profits. Second, import-competing firms cut back their production levels when foreign competition intensifies, at least in the short run. This suggests that sunk entry or exit costs are important in most sectors. Third, trade rationalizes production in the sense that markets for the most efficient plants are expanded, but large import-competing firms tend to simultaneously contract. Fourth exposure to foreign competition often improves intra-plant efficiency. Fifth, firms that engage in international activities tend to be larger, more productive, and supply higher quality products. However the literature is mixed on whether international activities cause these characteristics or vice versa. Finally, the short-run and long-run effects of commercial policy on exports and market structure can be quite different. Both types of response depend upon initial conditions, sunk entry costs, and the extent of firm heterogeneity.
Population Growth, Technological Adoption and Economic Outcomes: A Theory of Cross-Country Differences for the Information Era [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 14-03-2005William O. Bearden, David Green NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. No. 8149.
The object of this paper is to show how population growth, through its interaction with recent technological and organizational developments, can account for many of the cross-country differences in economic outcome observed among industrialized countries over the last 20 years. In particular, our model illustrates how a large decrease in the price of information technology can create a comparative advantage for high population growth economies to jump ahead in the adoption of computer- and skill-intensive models of production as a means to exploiting their relative abundance of human capital versus physical capital. The predictions of the model are that, over the span of the information revolution, industrial countries with higher population growth rates will experience a more pronounced adoption of new technology, a better performance in terms of increased employment rates, a poorer performance in terms of wage growth for less skilled workers, a larger increase in the service sector and a larger increase in the returns to education. We provide preliminary evidence in suport of the theory based on a comparative study of observed developments in the US, UK and Germany since the mid-seventies, complemented by an examination of broad wage and employment changes for 18 OECD countries over the same period.
Опубликовано на портале: 14-03-2005William D. Nordhaus NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. No. 8096.
The present study is the third in a series of three papers devoted to issues in the measurement of productivity and productivity growth. The major findings are as follows. First, this study shows that the new data set used here, which develops data on total output, business sector output, and 'well-measured' output, and relying on income-side data, provides a useful supplement to existing data sets. Second, there has clearly been a rebound in labor-productivity growth in recent years. All three sectoral definitions show a major acceleration in labor productivity in the last three years of the period (1996 98) relative to the 1978 95 period. The rebound was 1.2 percentage points for GDP, 1.8 percentage points for business sector, and 2.1 percentage points for well-measured output. Third, productivity growth in the new economy sectors has made a significant contribution to economy-wide productivity growth. For the business sector, of the 1.82 percentage point increase in labor-productivity growth in the last three years, 0.65 percentage point was due to the new-economy sectors. Finally, for all three output measures, there has been a substantial upturn in labor-productivity growth outside the new economy. After removing the direct effect of new economy sectors, the productivity acceleration was 0.54 percentage points for total GDP, 0.65 percentage points for business output, and 1.18 percentage points for well-measured output. It is clear that the productivity rebound is not narrowly focused in a few new-economy sectors.
Опубликовано на портале: 16-11-2004Laurence M. Ball, Robert A. Moffitt NBER Working Paper Series. 2001. w8421.
We present a model in which workers' aspirations for wage increases adjust slowly to shifts in productivity growth. The model yields a Phillips curve with a new variable: the gap between productivity growth and an average of past wage growth. Empirically, this variable shows up strongly in the U.S. Phillips curve. Including it explains the otherwise puzzling shift in the unemployment- inflation tradeoff since 1995.