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NBER Working Paper Series

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Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003
Edward E. Leamer NBER Working Paper Series. 1994.  w4753.
A free trade agreement supports global free trade since trade barriers tend to divert trade in favor of members, but not reduce imports. The term: 'mutual assured deterrence' is used to refer to a regional free trade association that has the feature that no member can gain individually from the imposition of a barrier against a non- member. Mutual assured deterrence is shown to be possible for a surprisingly rich set of partners. A customs union is compatible with global free trade if the vast majority of trade takes place naturally within the confines of the association. A customs union that is likely to have this property would combine countries to form a nearly exact economic replica of the globe. The economic combination of Mexico and the United States doesn't form a replica of the global economy because, compared with Asia, North America has relatively high capital per worker even after adding the Mexican workforce. However, NAFTA does seem to have the property of mutual assured deterrence, and may for that reason amount to a commitment to global free trade as well as regional free trade.
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Опубликовано на портале: 16-03-2005
Craig A. Burnside, Martin Stewart Eichenbaum NBER Working Paper Series. 1994.  No. 4675.
This paper analyzes the role of variable capital utilization rates in propagating shocks over the business cycle. To this end we formulate and estimate an equilibrium business cycle model in which cyclical capital utilization rates are viewed as a form of factor hoarding. We find that variable capital utilization rates substantially magnify and propagate the impact of shocks to agents' environments. The strength of these propagation effects is evident in the dynamic response functions of various economy wide aggregates to shocks in agents' environments, in the statistics that we construct to summarize the strength of the propagation mechanisms in the model and in the volatility of exogenous technology shocks needed to explain the observed variability in aggregate U.S. output. Other authors have argued that standard Real Business Cycle (RBC) models fail to account for certain features of the data because they do not embody quantitatively important propagation mechanisms. These features include the observed positive serial correlation in the growth rate of output, the shape of the spectrum of the growth rate of real output and the correlation between the forecastable component of real output and various other economic aggregates. Allowing for variable capital utilization rates substantially improves the ability of the model to account for these features of the data.
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Опубликовано на портале: 18-08-2004
William Easterly, Sergio Rebelo NBER Working Paper Series. 1994.  w4499.
This paper describes the empirical regularities relating fiscal policy variables, the level of development and the rate of growth. We employ historical data, recent cross-section data, and newly constructed public investment series. Our main findings are: (i) there is a strong association between the development level and the fiscal structure: poor countries rely heavily on international trade taxes, while income taxes are only important in developed economies; (ii) fiscal policy is influenced by the scale of the economy, measured by its population; (iii) investment in transport and communication is consistently correlated with growth while the effects of taxation are difficult to isolate empirically.
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Опубликовано на портале: 07-10-2003
George A. Akerlof, Paul M. Romer NBER Working Paper Series. 1994.  No. 1869.
Акерлоф и Ромер показали, что возможность использования механизма банкротства для получения прибыли одними (собственниками и менеджерами, преследующими единые цели) в ущерб другим (обществу в целом, т.е. происходит снижение общественного благосостояния) при определенных условиях, и назвали такое поведение собственников предприятий мародерством (looting). Авторы используют термин мародерство, потому что собственники и менеджеры принимают решения, осознавая влияние своих действий на общественное благосостояние. Авторы построили трехпериодную модель, описывающую выбор собственника между стратегией мародерства и стратегией максимизации стоимости фирмы в долгосрочной перспективе (true value of the thrift) при отсутствии неопределенности.
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