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NBER Working Paper Series

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Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003
Junichi Goto, Koichi Hamada NBER Working Paper Series. 1995.  w5325.
This paper assesses the economic conditions for Asian countries to cope with the formation of EU and NAFTA. Is it desirable for them to form their own trading area? And, if desirable, is it better to have a closed one like the EAEC or a more open one like the APEC? Relying on public economics and the calculus of participation combined with the Dixit-Stiglitz-Krugman framework, we find the following: (i) the development of the EAEC by the leadership of Malaysia would be a natural response of Asian countries against two big blocs in the world, EU and NAFTA; (ii) it is natural for the United States to discourage this move because the formation of an economic bloc in Asia will have a negative economic impact on the non- Asian countries; (iii) it is natural for the U.S. to propose an opposing coalition like the APEC to nullify the possible economic impact of the EAEC; but (iv) perhaps the APEC will be a good roundabout way towards international free trade.
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Опубликовано на портале: 17-09-2004
Michael Bruno, William Easterly NBER Working Paper Series. 1995.  No. 5209.
Recent literature suggests that long-run averages of growth and inflation are only weakly correlated and such correlation is not robust to exclusion of extreme inflation observations; inclusion of time series panel data has improved matters, but an aggregate parametric approach remains inconclusive. We propose a nonparametric definition of high inflation crises as periods when inflation is above 40 percent annually. Excluding countries with high inflation crises, we find no evidence of any consistent relationship between growth and inflation at any frequency. However, we find that growth falls sharply during discrete high inflation crises, then recovers surprisingly strongly after inflation falls. The fall in growth during crisis and recovery of growth after crisis tend to average out to close to zero (even slightly above zero), hence the lack of a robust cross-section correlation. Our findings could be consistent either with trend stationarity of output, in which inflation crises are purely cyclical phenomena, or with models in which crises have a favorable long-run purgative effect. Our findings do not support the view that reduction of high inflation carries heavy short-to-medium run output costs.
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Опубликовано на портале: 13-08-2007
Maurice Obstfeld, Kenneth S. Rogoff NBER Working Paper Series. 1995.  No. 5191.
This paper discusses the profound difficulties of maintaining fixed exchange rates in a world of expanding global capital markets. Contrary to popular wisdom, industrialized-country monetary authorities easily have the resources to defend exchange parities against virtually any private speculative attack. But if their commitment to use those resources lacks credibility with markets, the costs to the broader economy of defending an exchange-rate peg can be very high. The dynamic interplay between credibility and commitment is illustrated by the 1992 Swedish and British crises and the 1994-95 Mexican collapse. We also discuss the small number of successful fixers.
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