NBER Working Paper Series
- Выпуск N6384 за 1998 год
- Выпуск N6471 за 1998 год
- Выпуск N6545 за 1998 год
- Выпуск N6564 за 1998 год
- Выпуск N6593 за 1998 год
- Выпуск N6652 за 1998 год
- Выпуск N6726 за 1998 год
- Выпуск N6756 за 1998 год
- Выпуск Nw5433 за 1998 год
- Выпуск Nw6521 за 1998 год
- Выпуск Nw6800 за 1998 год
- Выпуск Nw6857 за 1998 год
Опубликовано на портале: 06-10-2003Lucian Arye Bebchuk, Andrew T. Guzman NBER Working Paper Series. 1998. w6521.
В статье Бебчака и Газмана проводится анализ эффектов, связанных с законодательством о проведении транснациональных банкротств. Сравниваются два режима: территориальный и универсальный. Территориальный режим подразумевает рассмотрение активов фирмы-должника в соответствии с их юрисдикцией, т. е. применение норм того законодательства, где расположены активы фирмы в момент начала процедуры банкротства. Универсальный же режим предполагает, что независимо от местоположения активов фирм применяется единое законодательство. Территориальный режим ведет к неэффективному распределению капитала между странами. В статье анализируется, кто выигрывает от того, что действует режим территориальный, почему действует именно этот режим, ведь он приводит к потерям в совокупном благосостоянии, и что нужно предпринять, чтобы достичь режима универсальности.
Опубликовано на портале: 11-11-2004Sebastian Edwards NBER Working Paper Series. 1998. w6800.
This paper deals with some of the most important aspects of Latin America's experience with capital flows during the last twenty-five years. The paper begins with a historical analysis. I then deal with the sequencing of reform and discuss issues related to the relationship between capital flows, real exchange rates, and international competitiveness. I next concentrate on the role of capital controls as a device for isolating emerging economies from the volatility of international capital markets. I begin by reviewing the policy issues and the current debate on the subject. I then present an empirical analysis of Chile's recent experiences with capital controls and make some comparisons to the recent experiences of Columbia. The analysis of the Chilean experience is particularly important since its practice of imposing reserves requirements on capital inflows has been praised by a number of analysts, including senior staff of the multilateral institutions, as an effective and efficient way of reducing the vulnerability associated with capital flows volatility. The results obtained suggest that capital controls in Chile have had mixed results: while they have allowed the Central Bank to have a greater degree of control over short term interest rates, they have failed in avoiding real exchange rate appreciation. The paper ends with some reflections, based on recent Latin American historical episodes, on the role of banks in intermediating capital inflows and on financial crises.
Explaining Rising Wage Inequality: Explorations with a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model of Labor Earnings with Heterogeneous Agents [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 05-02-2007John H. Cochrane, Christopher R. Taber, Lance Lochner NBER Working Paper Series. 1998. No. 6384.
This paper develops and estimates an overlapping generations general equilibrium model of labor earnings, skill formation and physical capital accumulation with heterogeneous human capital. The model analyzes both schooling choices and post-school on-the-job investment in skills in a framework in which different schooling levels index different skills. A key insight in the model is that accounting for the distinction between skill prices and measured wages is important for analyzing the changing wage structure, as they often move in different directions. New methods are developed and applied to estimate the demand for unobserved human capital and to determine the substitution relationships in aggregate technology among skills and capital. We estimate skill-specific human capital accumulation equations that are consistent with the general equilibrium predictions of the model. Using our estimates, we find that a model of skill-biased technical change with a trend estimated from our aggregate technology is consistent with the central feature of rising wage equality measured by the college-high school wage differential and by the standard deviation of log earnings over the past 15 years. Immigration of low skill workers contributes little to rising wage inequality. When the model is extended to account for the enlarged cohorts of the Baby Boom, we find that the same parameter estimates of the supply functions for human capital that are used the explain the wage history of the last 15 years also explain the last 35 years of wage inequality as documented by Katz and Murphy (1992).
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003Jiandong Ju, Kala Krishna NBER Working Paper Series. 1998. w6857.
Authors develop a model to study the behavior of firms in a Free Trade Area with Rules of Origin and the consequences of this behavior on the market equilibrium and outcome. Authors show that firms will choose to specialize, and that an FTA with strict ROOs on the intermediate good raises imports and hence improves market access in the final good market reduces imports and hence harms market access in the intermediate good market. More restrictive ROOs on the final good first raise and then lower imports of the final good lower than raise imports of the intermediate good. Their turning point is common so that imports of the final good are maximized and imports of the intermediate good are minimized at a common level of restrictiveness of the rules of origin. Authors show that our model can be reinterpreted to show that more restrictive ROOs on the final good first improves and then harms the fortunes of labor, and to cast light on a particular policy to improve market access. Other problems with a similar structure could also be analyzed using our techniques; authors expect similar results.
Foundations of Incomplete Contracts [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 31-08-2003Oliver Hart, John Moore NBER Working Paper Series. 1998. No. 6726.
In the last few years a new area has emerged in economic theory, which goes under the heading of "incomplete contracting." However, almost since its inception, the theory has been under attack for its lack of rigorous foundations. In this paper, authors evaluate some of the criticism that have been made of the theory, in particular, those in Maskin and Tirole (1998a). In doing so, Hart and Moore develop a model that provides a rigorous foundation for the idea that contracts are incomplete.
Опубликовано на портале: 10-12-2003Sebastian Edwards NBER Working Paper Series. 1998. No. 6756.
Current debates on globalization have tended to focus on financial market volatility and contagion. In fact, many proponents of the imposition of some form of capital restrictions in emerging markets have argued that these would help reduce or even eliminate spillover across emerging market. Although this has been an old concern among developing economies, it has become more generalized after the Mexican, East Asian and Russian crises. In this paper I use high frequency data on short term nominal interest rates during the 1990s in three Latin American countries Argentina, Chile and Mexico -- to analyze whether there has been volatility contagion from Mexico to the two South American nations. The results obtained from the estimation of augmented GARCH equations indicate, quite strongly, that while there has been volatility contagion from Mexico to Argentina, there has been no volatility contagion from Mexico to Chile. These results also indicate, however, that with the exception of a brief period in 1995, nominal interest rates have been more volatile in Chile than in Argentina. The results reported in this paper also indicate that interest rate differentials with respect to the US have tended to disappear somewhat slowly in both Chile and Argentina. Moreover, the estimation of rolling regressions for Chile indicate that after capital controls on capital inflows were imposed, interest rate differentials became more sluggish and tended to disappear more slowly than during the free capital mobility period.
Investment, Fundamentals and Finance [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 17-09-2004Simon Gilchrist, Charles Himmelberg NBER Working Paper Series. 1998. No. 6652.
Financial variables such as cash flow and cash stocks are robust and quantitatively important explanatory variables for investment at the firm-level. A large body of recent empirical work attributes these findings to capital market imperfections. This interpretation is controversial, however, because even in the absence of capital market imperfections, such financial variables may appear as an explanatory variable for investment if they contain information about the expected marginal value of capital. In this paper, we show how structural models of investment with costly external finance can be used to identify and quantify the fundamental' versus the financial' determinants of investment. Our empirical results show that investment responds significantly to both fundamental and financial factors. Point estimates from our structural model imply that, for the average firm in our sample, financial factors raise the overall response of investment to an expansionary shock by 25%, relative to a baseline case where financial frictions are zero. Consistent with theory, small firms and firms without bond ratings show the strongest response to financial factors, while bond-rated firms show little if any response once we control for investment fundamentals.
Опубликовано на портале: 17-09-2004Matthew B. Canzoneri, Robert E. Cumby, Behzad T. Diba NBER Working Paper Series. 1998. No. 6471.
A new theory of price determination suggests that if primary surpluses are independent of the level of debt, the price level has to jump' to assure fiscal solvency. In this regime (which we call Fiscal Dominant), monetary policy has to work through seignorage to control the price level. If on the other hand primary surpluses are expected to respond to the level of debt in a way that assures fiscal solvency (a regime we call Money Dominant), then the price level is determined in more conventional ways. In this paper we develop testable restrictions that differentiate between the two regimes. Using post war data, we present what we think is overwhelming evidence that the United States is in a Money Dominant regime; even the post Reagan data (1980 to 1995) seem to support that contention.
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003Assaf Razin, Chi-Wa Yuen NBER Working Paper Series. 1998. w5433.
Using a human capital based growth model, we show the essential role of labor mobility and cross-country tax harmonization in equalizing income levels of countries that start off from different initial income positions. Knowledge spillovers cum labor mobility are the driving forces behind the income level equalization process. In the absence of tax harmonization within an economic union, equality in income levels is not achievable. Coordination of educational subsidies necessary for the internalization of knowledge spillovers may or may not be necessary. These considerations constitute the basis for our efficient growth agenda for an economic union such as the EU.
Open-Economy Inflation Targeting [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 20-07-2004Lars E.O. Svensson NBER Working Paper Series. 1998. No. 6545.
В статье рассматривается модель малой отрытой экономики. Для построения функций совокупного спроса и предложения используются концепции микроэкономической теории. В работе сравниваются стратегии таргетирования индекса потребительских цен и внутренней инфляции, жесткого и гибкого таргетирования, а также функция реакции инфляционного таргетирования с правилом Тейлора. Стратегия гибкого таргетирования является успешной в ограничении колебаний не только инфляции, но и разрыва выпуска (относительно выпуска при полной занятости), а также реального курса. Для анализа влияния денежно-кредитной политики на совокупный спрос строится индекс (monetary conditions index), который имеет два отличия от аналогичных индексов. В нем, во-первых, комбинируется долгосрочная, а не краткосрочная, реальная ставка процента с реальным курсом. Во-вторых, учитываются ожидаемые, а не текущие значения этих переменных.
The Demand for Money, Financial Innovation, and Welfare Cost of Inflation: An Analysis with Household Data [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 05-10-2004Orazio P. Attanasio, Luigi Guiso, Tullio Jappelli NBER Working Paper Series. 1998. No. 6593.
How far can shoe-leather go in explaining the welfare cost of inflation? Using a unique set of microeconomic data on households, we estimate the parameters of the demand for money derived from the generalized Baumol-Tobin model. Our data set contains information on average holdings of cash, on deposits and other interest bearing accounts, on the number of trips to the bank, on the size of withdrawals and on the ownership and use of ATM cards. We model the adoption of new transaction technologies and use these estimates to correct for the selectivity bias induced by some households choosing to hold no interest bearing assets and some to use an ATM card. The interest rate and expenditureflow elasticities of the demand for cash are close to the tehoretical values implied by standard inventory models. However, we find significant differences between the individuals with an ATM card and those without. The estimates of the demand for cash allow us to calculate a measure of the welfare cost of inflation analogous to Bailey's triangle, but based on a rigorous microeconomic framework. The welfare cost of inflation varies considerably within the population, but never turns out to be very large (about 0.1 percent of consumption or less). Our results are robust to various changes in the specification. In addition tot eh main results based on the average stock of cash held, we provide some evidence based on the number of trips to the bank and on the average withdrawals that confirm our basic findings.
Опубликовано на портале: 21-12-2007Robert E. Hall, Charles I. Jones NBER Working Paper Series. 1998. No. 6564.
Output per worker varies enormously across countries. Why? On an accounting basis, our analysis shows that differences in physical capital and educational attainment can only partially explain the variation in output per worker we find a large amount of variation in the level of the Solow residual across countries. At a deeper level, we document that the differences in capital accumulation, productivity, and therefore output per worker are driven by differences in institutions and government policies, which we call social infrastructure. We treat social infrastructure as endogenous, determined historically by location and other factors captured in part by language.