NBER Working Paper Series
- Выпуск N6956 за 1999 год
- Выпуск N7067 за 1999 год
- Выпуск N7292 за 1999 год
- Выпуск N7337 за 1999 год
- Выпуск N7388 за 1999 год
- Выпуск N7444 за 1999 год
- Выпуск Nw6682 за 1999 год
- Выпуск Nw6899 за 1999 год
- Выпуск Nw7163 за 1999 год
- Выпуск Nw7196 за 1999 год
- Выпуск Nw7228 за 1999 год
- Выпуск Nw7402 за 1999 год
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003Robert E. Lipsey NBER Working Paper Series. 1999. No. 7292.
Since 1977, and in some cases starting before that, most East Asian countries’ export patterns in manufacturing have been transformed from industry distributions typical of developing countries to distributions more like those of advanced countries. The process of change in most cases started with inward FDI to produce for export in the new industries, particularly by U.S. firms in electronics and computer-related machinery. The U.S. firms were followed, in electronics, by Japanese multinationals. Over time, in most cases, the U.S.-owned affiliates turned more to sales in host-country market and their share in host country exports declined, although the host countries’ specializations in the new industries continued. U.S. and Japanese firms played somewhat different roles. U.S. firms’ investments were always distributed more along the lines of U.S. export comparative advantage, far from the previous patterns of the host countries. The industry distribution of Japanese investments initially followed more the lines of the host countries’ comparative advantage and Japanese affiliates were less export-oriented than U.S. affiliates. However, Japanese affiliates have become more like U.S. affiliates in both export orientation and industry composition. Their early concentration in textiles and apparel faded and they are more heavily concentrated than U.S. affiliates and more export-oriented in both electrical machinery and transport equipment.
EMU: Ready, or Not? [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003Maurice Obstfeld NBER Working Paper Series. 1999. w6682.
In this paper I focus on two specific hazard areas in the transition from Stage Two to Stage Three of European economic and monetary union (EMU), as well as on some key problems of Stage Three that EMU's monetary and fiscal structures appear ill-prepared to handle. The transitional hazards are of considerable theoretical as well as policy interest: the best way to coordinate monetary stances and lock exchange parties for a smooth switch from eleven national currencies to a single joint currency. A third problems, one that is central for EMU and to any currency union, lies behind the difficulty of the transition: the possibility of nationally asymmetric real shocks. I review that topic in the context of Ireland's recent experience. The paper goes on to discuss weaknesses in the structure of Stage Three, already much noted, connected with the provision of lender of last resort facilities in the euro zone and the framework for supervising financial institutions. The deficit and debt limits embodies in the excessive deficits procedure of the Maastrich treaty and the subsequent Stability and Growth Pact have been justified by the threat high debts might pose to the stability of the euro zone's financial markets. I consider the past and prospective fiscal adjustments of the EMU 11, and suggest these might pose future difficulties for macroeconomic policy and growth.
Опубликовано на портале: 11-11-2004Sebastian Edwards, Miguel A. Savastano NBER Working Paper Series. 1999. w7228.
Exchange rates have been at the center of economic debates in emerging economies. Issues related to the feasibility of flexible exchange rates, the relationship between exchange rate volatility and growth, and the role of exchange rate overvaluation in recent crises, among other, have been extensively discussed during the last few years. In this paper we address some of the most important exchange rate-related issues in emerging economies. In particular, we deal with: (a) the merits of alternative exchange rate regimes: (b) the extent to which purchasing power parity holds in the long run in these countries; and (c) models to assess real exchange rate overvaluation. We also discuss future areas for research on exchange rates in the emerging nations.
Опубликовано на портале: 27-12-2006Daron K. Acemoglu, Joshua D. Angrist NBER Working Paper Series. 1999. No. 7444.
Average schooling in US states is highly correlated with state wage levels, even after controlling for the direct effect of schooling on individual wages. We use an instrumental variables strategy to determine whether this relationship is driven by social returns to education. The instrumentals for average schooling are derived from information on the child labor laws and compulsory attendance laws that affected men in our Census samples, while quarter of birth is used as an instrument for individual schooling. This results in precisely estimated private returns to education of about seven percent, and small social returns, typically less than one percent, that are not significantly different from zero.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2003Linda Goldberg, Michael W. Klein NBER Working Paper Series. 1999. w7196.
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has been growing rapidly, at a pace far exceeding the growth in international trade. Thus, a full understanding of the relationship between trade in goods and FDI is important for obtaining a complete picture of the extent and sources of international linkages. Autors investigate whether FDI serves as a complement to trade or a substitute for trade based on the effects identified by the Rybczynski theorem whereby an increase in a factor of production used intensively in one sector affects production both in that sector and in other sectors. Using detailed data on bilateral capital and trade flows between the United States and individual Latin American countries, autors examine the linkages between FDI into particular sectors of Latin American economies and the net exports of those and other manufacturing sectors. Autors find that FDI from the United States can lead to significant, and varied, shifts in the composition of activity in many Latin American countries and across many manufacturing industries.
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003James R. Markusen, Keith E. Maskus NBER Working Paper Series. 1999. w7163.
An important component of Robert Lipsey's work has been his research on multinational firms, and his careful documentation of their behavior in terms of production and intra-firm trade. In this paper, authors extend recent theory referred to as the knowledge-capital model, which simultaneously generates motives for both horizontal and vertical multinational production. Autors use this model to derive predictions about foreign affiliates' pattern of production for local markets versus production for exports as functions of country characteristics such as market sizes, size differences, and relative endowment differences. These predictions are then taken to data on affiliate production and trade. Results confirm several hypotheses. The ratio of production for export sales to production for local sale by affiliates of foreign multinationals depends negatively on market size, investment and trade costs in the host country, and positively on the relative skilled-labor abundance of the parent country (skilled-labor scarcity of the host country).
Опубликовано на портале: 07-10-2003Oliver Hart, John Moore NBER Working Paper Series. 1999. No. 7388.
Авторы предложили модель иерархии, основанную на распределении власти. Собственники фирмы имеют неограниченную власть в принятии решений, но они ограничены временем и способностью использовать данную власть. Таким образом, рождается цепочка делегирования власти на более низкие ступени организации, т. е. получается, что часть агентов будет вовлечена в координацию, а часть в специализацию. Выдвинутая теория проливает свет на природу организации, оптимальную степень демократии и границы фирмы.
Опубликовано на портале: 05-10-2004Charles M. Engel NBER Working Paper Series. 1999. No. 7067.
This paper investigates the behavior of the foreign exchange risk premium in two recent two-country intertemporal-optimizing general equilibrium models with sticky nominal prices: Obstfeld-Rogoff (1998) and Devereux-Engel (1998). The foreign exchange risk premium in any general equilibrium model arises from the correlation of the exchange rate with consumption. In flexible price models, that requires correlation of monetary and output supply shocks. In sticky-price models, the correlation arises endogenously because monetary shocks cause output and consumption to change. The size of the risk premium depends on how prices are set (in producers' currencies versus consumers' currencies), and on the form of the money demand function. In some cases, the risk premium generated by the model is quite large.
Опубликовано на портале: 05-02-2003Steven Shavell, Tanguy Ypersele NBER Working Paper Series. 1999. No. 6956.
This paper compares reward system to intellectual property rights (patents and copyrights). Under a reward system, innovators are paid for innovations directly by government (possibly on the basis of sales), and innovations pass immediately into the public domain. Thus, reward systems engender incentives to innovate without creating the monopoly power of intellectual property rights, but a principal difficulty with rewards is the information requires for their determination. We conclude in our model that intellectual property rights do not possess a fundamental social advantage over reward system, and that an optional reward system under which innovators choose between rewards and intellectual property rights is superior to intellectual property rights.
Tax Competition and Trade Protection [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 23-12-2003Eckhard Janeba, John D. Wilson NBER Working Paper Series. 1999. w7402.
This paper reconsiders the question of whether tax competition for mobile capital leads to tax rates on capital that are too low or too high from the combined viewpoint of the competing regions (or countries in an economic union). In contrast to standard models of tax competition, both commodity trade and capital mobility is allowed to occur between the competing regions and the rest of the world. A key result of the analysis is that whether the capital taxes are too low or high depends on the degree of external trade protection. When the country's central government is free to set the tariff, tax competition leads to inefficiently low tax rates. But in the absence of a tariff, tax rates can be too high. In particular, regions may choose to subsidize capital in equilibrium as a means of inducing favorable terms-of-trade effects, but the subsidy (i.e., a negative tax) will then be too low because an increase in a single region's subsidy benefits other regions by reducing their relative quantities of subsidized capital. These results are discussed in the context of the European Union's Single Market, where non-EU firms have responded to the 'Fortress of Europe' by increasing foreign direct investment.
Опубликовано на портале: 15-11-2004Richard E. Baldwin, Rikard Forslid NBER Working Paper Series. 1999. w6899.
Traditionally seen only in terms of trade costs, many aspects of economic integration are more naturally viewed as lowering the cost of trading information rather than goods, i.e. as reducing the extent to which learning externalities are localised. Raising learning spillovers is stabilising, so integration may encourage geographic dispersion (the traditional result is that integration tends to encourage agglomeration). This may be useful for evaluating real-world regional policies e.g. subsidisation of universities, technical colleges and high-technology industrial parks in disadvantaged regions that are aimed at combating the localisation of learning externalities. Finally we show that agglomeration of industry is favourable to growth and that this growth effect can mitigate, but not reverse, losses suffered by residents of the periphery when catastrophic agglomeration occurs.
Опубликовано на портале: 16-12-2003M.E.Dominguez Kathryn NBER Working Paper Series. 1999. No. 7337.
One of the great unknowns in international finance is the process by which new information influences exchange rate behavior. This paper focuses on one important source of information to the foreign exchange markets, the intervention operations of the G-3 central banks. Previous studies using daily and weekly foreign exchange rate data suggest that central bank intervention operations can influence both the level and variance of exchange rates, but little is known about how exactly traders learn of these operations and whether intra-daily market conditions influence the effectiveness of central bank interventions. This paper uses high-frequency data to examine the relationship between the efficacy of intervention operations and the 'state of the market' at the moment that the operation is made public to traders. The results indicate that some traders know that a central bank is intervening at least one hour prior to the public release of the information in newswire reports. Also, the evidence suggests that the timing of intervention operations matter interventions that occur during heavy trading volume and that are closely timed to scheduled macro announcements are the most likely to have large effects. Finally, post-intervention mean reversion in both exchange rate returns and volatility indicate that dealer inventories are affected by market reactions to intervention news.