Journal of International Economics
Are Windfalls a Curse? A Non-Representative Agent Model of the Current Account and Fiscal Policy [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 11-01-2003Aaron Tornell, Philip Lane Journal of International Economics. 1998. Vol. 44. P. 83-112.
In several countries temporary terms of trade improvements have led to a deterioration of the current account. Furthermore, many of these countries failed to attain greater post-boom growth rates. The point we make is that the structure of the fiscal process is critical in determining outcomes. If fiscal control is unitary, then the consumption-smoothing effect is operative, and representative-agent models of the current account have predictive power. However, if control is divided among several fiscal claimants, a voracity effect appears which counteracts the consumption-smoothing effect, leading to a deterioration of the current account in response to a positive shock. We model the interaction among fiscal claimants as a dynamic game, and show that in equilibrium aggregate appropriation increases more than the windfall itself. This results in a deterioration of the current account. We also show that all the windfall is dissipated, with the country experiencing no increase in its growth rate. Lastly, we analyze the experiences of seven countries which have enjoyed large windfalls.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-12-2009Gary G. Hamilton, Robert C. Feenstra, T.H. Yang Journal of International Economics. 1999. Vol. 48. No. 1. P. 71-100 .
We analyze the impact of market structure on the trade performance of South Korea, Taiwan and Japan. South Korea has many large, vertically-integrated business groups known as 'chaebol' whereas business groups in Taiwan are smaller and more specialized in the production of intermediate inputs. We test the hypotheses mat a greater presence of business groups leads to less product variety but higher product quality, using data on exports from these countries to the United States. We find that Taiwan tends to export a greater variety of products to the US than Korea, and this holds particularly for final goods. In addition, Taiwan exports higher-quality intermediate inputs, whereas Korea exports higher-quality final goods. A comparison with Japan is also presented, which has greater product variety in its sales to the US than either Taiwan or Korea, due to its larger size.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-10-2007Richard A. Meese, Kenneth S. Rogoff Journal of International Economics. 1983. Vol. 14. P. 3-24.
This study compares the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of various structural and time series exchange rate models. We find that a random walk model performs as well as any estimated model at one to twelve month horizons for the dollar/pound, dollar/mark, dollar/yen and trade-weighted dollar exchange rates. The candidate structural models include the flexible-price (Frenkel-Bilson) and sticky-price (Dornbusch-Frankel) monetary models, and a sticky-price model which incorporates the current account (Hooper-Morton). The structural models perform poorly despite the fact that we base their forecasts on actual realized values of future explanatory variables
Опубликовано на портале: 31-03-2003Rachel McCulloch, Janet L. Yellen Journal of International Economics. 1980. Vol. 10. No. 2. P. 237-247.
Investigates the implications of factor market monopsony power for the allocation of resources between industries. Characteristic of allocation of factors; Impact of the exercise of monopsony of power on the difference in factor intensity between industries; Relationship between the monopsonist's production level and factor rewards; Violation of the Stolper-Samuelson theorem in the monopsony case. (Из Ebsco)
Опубликовано на портале: 11-11-2004Maurice Obstfeld, Kenneth S. Rogoff Journal of International Economics. 2000. Vol. 50. P. 117-153.
The paper develops a simple stochastic new open economy macroeconomic model based on sticky nominal wages. Explicit solution of the wage-setting problem under uncertainty allows one to analyze the effects of the monetary regime on welfare, expected output, and the expected terms of trade. Despite the potential interplay between imperfections due to sticky wages and monopoly, the optimal monetary policy rule has a closed-form solution. To motivate our model, we show that observed correlations between terms of trade and exchange rates are more consistent with our traditional assumptions about nominal rigidities than with a popular alternative based on local-currency pricing.
Open-Economy Inflation Targeting [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 01-11-2007Lars E.O. Svensson Journal of International Economics. 2000. Vol. 50. No. 1. P. 155–183 .
The paper examines inflation targeting in a small open economy with forward-looking aggregate supply and demand with microfoundations, and with stylized realistic lags in the different monetary-policy transmission channels. The paper compares strict and flexible targeting of CPI and domestic inflation, and inflation-targeting reaction functions and the Taylor rule. Flexible CPI-inflation targeting does not limit the variability of CPI inflation but also the variability of the output gap and the real exchange rate. Negative productivity supply shocks and positive demand shocks have similar effects on inflation and the output gap, and induce similar monetary policy responses.
Опубликовано на портале: 25-10-2007Guillermo A. Calvo, Enrique Gabriel Estrada Mendoza Journal of International Economics. 2000. Vol. 51. No. 1. P. 79-113.
This paper argues that globalization may promote contagion by weakening incentives forgathering costly information and by strengthening incentives for imitating arbitrary market portfolios. In the presence of short-selling constraints, the gain of gathering information at a fixed cost may diminish as markets grow. Moreover, if a portfolio manager's marginal cost for yielding below-market returns exceeds the marginal gain for above-market returns, there is a range of optimal portfolios in which all investors imitate arbitrary market portfolios and this range widens as the market grows. Numerical simulations suggest that these frictions can have significant implications for capital flows in emerging markets
Опубликовано на портале: 22-10-2007Avinash K. Dixit, Luisa Lambertini Journal of International Economics. 2003. Vol. 60. No. 2. P. 235-247.
We consider the interaction between the monetary policy in a monetary union, and the separate fiscal policies of the member countries. We use a Barro–Gordon-type model extended to many countries and fiscal policies. Each country’s fiscal policies inflict externalities on other countries, and the common monetary policy has its time-consistency problem. But if the two types of policymakers agree about the ideal levels of output and inflation, then this ideal is attained despite disagreements about the weights of the objectives, despite ex post monetary accommodation to fiscal profligacy, without fiscal coordination, without monetary commitment, and for any order of moves.
Опубликовано на портале: 25-10-2007Xenia Matschke Journal of International Economics. 2003. No. 61. P. 209-223.
This paper investigates the equivalence of optimal import tariffs and quotas in a Cournot duopoly model when firms have more information about demand than the domestic government. The author considers a screening model in which the government offers the domestic firm different contracts from which to choose. She shows that the availability and cost of obtaining correct information from the firm depends upon the choice of trade policy instrument. Asymmetric information thus destroys the equivalence of tariffs and quotas, which prevails under complete information, and has a profound impact on how government, firms, and consumers rank different trade policy instruments.