Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society)
Applications and Case Studies Improving the Quality of Economic Data: Lessons from the HRS and AHEAD [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 26-04-2003F. Thomas Juster, James P. Smith Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society). 1997. Vol. Vol. 92. No. 440. P. pp. 1268-1278.
Missing data are an increasingly important problem in economic surveys, especially when trying to measure household wealth. However, some relatively simple new survey methods such as follow-up brackets appear to appreciably improve the quality of household economic data. Brackets represent partial responses to asset questions and apparently significantly reduce item nonresponse. Brackets also provide a remedy to deal with nonignorable nonresponse bias, a critical problem with economic survey data.
Balanced Estimates of National Accounts when Measurement Errors are Autocorrelated: The UK, 1920-38 [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 04-11-2004Solomos Solomou, Martin Weale Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society). 1993. Vol. 156. No. 1. P. 89-105.
It is frequently argued that changes in economic variables are measured more reliably than their levels. This may happen if measurement errors are autocorrelated. Autocorrelation should be taken into account in the least squares balancing of national accounts. Formulae are presented for the error structure which is likely to arise from extrapolation away from or interpolation between bench-mark observations. Balanced estimates are presented for the UK national accounts, 1920-38, taking into account the autocorrelation likely to have been generated in data construction.
Опубликовано на портале: 11-09-2003David Bawden Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society). 1986. Vol. Vol. 147. No. 1. . P. pp. 78-86.
The role of computer-based information services, and specifically online literature searching systems, in access to information relevant to applications of statistics are discussed. The available resources for statistics information per se, applications of statistics, and background material on applications areas, are outlined. Particular emphasis is placed on biomedical applications of statistics. The strengths and limitations of this approach, compared with traditional printed sources, are described, and future prospects noted.
Deconstructing Statistical Questions [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 19-07-2004David J. Hand Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society). 1994. Vol. 157. No. 3. P. 317-356.
Too much current statistical work takes a superficial view of the client's research question, adopting techniques which have a solid history, a sound mathematical basis or readily available software, but without considering in depth whether the questions being answered are in fact those which should be asked. Examples, some familiar and others less so, are given to illustrate this assertion. It is clear that establishing the mapping from the client's domain to a statistical question is one of the most difficult parts of a statistical analysis. It is a part in which the responsibility is shared by both client and statistician. A plea is made for more research effort to go in this direction and some suggestions are made for ways to tackle the problem.
Опубликовано на портале: 11-09-2003Roger Davidson Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society). 1995. Vol. Vol. 158. No. 1.. P. pp. 165-173.
This paper explores some of the social and economic forces shaping the development of official labour statistics in Britain a century ago. It examines the competing fears and ideologies that fuelled the demand for intelligence about the labour market and the major constraints on its provision, such as Treasury control, industrial resistance and the lack of co-ordination between the statistical branches of government. The broader impact of official labour statistics on social politics is discussed in both a British and an international context, with particular reference to the problems of industrial unrest, unemployment and low income destitution. The paper uses a historical perspective to demonstrate the continuing significance of past investigations to British labour statistics.
Опубликовано на портале: 19-07-2004Ред.: Peter G. Moore Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society). 1993. Vol. 154. No. 1. P. 23-44.
The Working Party was set up by the Royal Statistical Society because of widespread criticism of UK official statistics collected and reported by the Government Statistical Service. That Service has to be of fine quality, earning and enjoying public confidence and providing accurate, timely and cost-effective data both for governmental and for public use. The Working Party found no evidence of a lack of integrity among government statisticians. However, the organizational and operational framework of the Government Statistical Service is regarded as inadequate. Accordingly four important sets of recommendations are made. Their acceptance is fundamental for the achievement of a high quality of service linked to full public confidence in official statistics.
Опубликовано на портале: 26-04-2003Paul Gregg Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society). 1994. Vol. Vol. 157. No. 2. P. pp. 253-270.
The validity of UK unemployment statistics was the focus of intense debate through the 1980s and again in 1992. This mainly concerned whether they were open to politically motivated manipulation. To some extent this argument has missed a wider point. Frequent changes of coverage and consistency between sources of information which provide measures of unemployment have led to a paucity of data that are suitable for social scientific study with its implied costs to our understanding of unemployment over the last 15 years. It is hoped that an increasing reliance on specifically designed survey techniques, rather than measures based on benefit administration data, will overcome many of these problems for the 1990s. The design of the Labour Force Survey should take on board the questions raised by social scientists. In particular, the shortage of available work should be measured by the broader indicators of social distress as well as the identification of excess labour supply in the labour market.
Present Position and Potential Developments: Some Personal Views: Statistics in Business and Commerce [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 19-07-2004Peter G. Moore Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society). 1984. Vol. 147. No. 2. P. 268-277.
The activities of statisticians working in industry or commerce are examined under three headings: information handling, experimental statistics and risk management. Some current needs are highlighted and the dilemma between the provision of information and recommendations for decision explored.
Producing Monthly Estimates of Unemployment of Employment Accounting to the International Labour Definition [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 22-09-2003David Steel Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society). 1997. Vol. Vol. 160. No. 1. . P. pp. 5-46..
Monthly unemployment statistics are available in Britain from a monthly count of the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits. There has been considerable debate on the appropriateness of this measure. Unemployment and employment statistics are available quarterly from the Labour Force Survey (LFS), using International Labour Office (ILO) definitions. In this paper various options for producing monthly unemployment estimates according to the ILO definition are examined. Methods considered are a monthly LFS, calculating rolling averages from the quarterly LFS, and methods which combine LFS and claimant count data. It is proposed that a monthly LFS of 60 000 households be introduced which can produce monthly estimates of total unemployment and more detailed estimates quarterly. Such a survey would also fill an important gap by providing monthly employment statistics which are needed to provide a complete picture of the labour market.
Опубликовано на портале: 19-07-2004R. L. Plackett Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society). 1984. Vol. 147. No. 2. P. 140-150.
The progress of the Royal Statistical Society is recorded from 1934 to 1984. After a sketch of the statistical background before 1945, subsequent developments are divided into sections: professional matters, meetings, publications, public policy, management, organization. Finally, a retrospective view is taken over the whole period.
Опубликовано на портале: 19-07-2004Juha M. Alho Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society). 1997. Vol. 160. No. 1. P. 71-85.
Current official population forecasts differ little from those that Whelpton made 50 years ago either in the cohort-component methodology used or in the arguments used to motivate the assumptions. However, Whelpton produced some of the most erroneous forecasts of this century. This suggests that current forecasters should ensure that they give users an assessment of the uncertainty of their forecasts. We show how simple statistical methods can be combined with expert judgment to arrive at an overall predictive distribution for the future population. We apply the methods to a world population forecast that was made in 1994. Accepting that point forecast, we find that the probability is only about 2% that the world population in the year 2030 will be less than the low scenario of 8317 million. The probability that the world population will exceed the high scenario of 10736 million is about 13%. Similarly, the probability is only about 51% that the high-low interval of a recent United Nations (UN) forecast will contain the true population in the year 2025. Even if we consider the UN high-low intervals as conditional on the possible future policies of its member states, they appear to have a relatively small probability of encompassing the future population.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-09-2003David J. Hand Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society). 1996. Vol. 159. No. 3. P. 445-492.
Just as there are different interpretations of probability, leading to different kinds of inferential statements and different conclusions about statistical models and questions, so there are different theories of measurement, which in turn may lead to different kinds of statistical model and possibly different conclusions. This has led to much confusion and a long running debate about when different classes of statistical methods may legitimately be applied. This paper outlines the major theories of measurement and their relationships and describes the different kinds of models and hypotheses which may be formulated within each theory. One general conclusion is that the domains of applicability of the two major theories are typically different, and it is this which helps apparent contradictions to be avoided in most practical applications.
Опубликовано на портале: 22-09-2003Eric J. Thompson Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society). 1995. Vol. Vol. 158. No. 2. . P. pp. 203-240..
This paper describes the 1991 census in England and Wales: how it was planned and implemented and how its results are being assessed. The description brings out the trade-offs that are necessary in undertaking a census, and some respects in which plans for a census in 2001 will need to take account of experience of that in 1991.
What is Statistics? [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 11-09-2003David J. Bartholomew Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society). 1995. Vol. Vol. 158. No. 1. . P. pp. 1-20..
Definitions of statistics abound but many fail to capture adequately the essential interplay of data and theory. It is argued that the ubiquity of variability and uncertainty, which characterize a statistical problem, establish the subject as a major player in science and all rational enquiry. Emphasis is placed on the breadth and unity of the subject and questions are raised for the Royal Statistical Society about its balance, publications and role in education
Опубликовано на портале: 22-09-2003Bill McLennan Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society). 1995. Vol. Vol. 158. No. 3. . P. pp. 467-489..
Since the early 1990s significant developments have occurred in official statistics, including new responsibilities, structures, collections, outputs and policies, and these will be described briefly for each of these separate but related roles. Similarly, many challenges remain relating mainly to effectiveness and cohesion which will be canvassed, together with the plans which are in hand to move the UK official statistical system forwards. The paper also comments on the international dimension of official statistics work, emphasizing in particular current developments with the European statistical system. The future for UK statistics is full of promise and challenges, and the author expresses his confidence that the Government Statistical Service will respond positively.