NBER Macroeconomics Annual
Опубликовано на портале: 02-11-2007
John Y. Campbell, Gregory N. Mankiw
NBER Macroeconomics Annual.
1989.
P. 185-216.
This paper proposes that the time-series data on consumption, income, and interest
rates are best viewed as generated not by a single representative consumer but by
two groups of consumers. Half the consumers are forward-looking and consume their
permanent income, but are extremely reluctant to substitute consumption temporarily.
Half the consumers follow the "rule of thumb" of consuming their current incomeThe
paper documents three empirical regularities that, it argues, are best explained
by this medal. First, expected changes in income are associated with expected changes
in consumption. Second, expected real interest rates are not associated with expected
changes in consumption. Third, periods in which consumption is high relative to income
are typically followed by high growth in income. The paper concludes by briefly discussing
the implications of these findings for economic policy and economic research
Optimal Currency Areas [статья]
Опубликовано на портале: 25-10-2007
Alberto Alesina, Robert J. Barro, Silvana Tenreyro
NBER Macroeconomics Annual.
2002.
Vol. 17.
As the number of independent countries increases and their economies become more integrated, we would expect to observe more multi-country currency unions. This paper explores the pros and cons for different countries to adopt as an anchor the dollar, the euro, or the yen. Although there appear to be reasonably well-defined euro and dollar areas, there does not seem to be a yen area. We also address the question of how trade and co-movements of outputs and prices would respond to the formation of a currency union. This response is important because the decision of a country to join a union would depend on how the union affects trade and co-movements
Опубликовано на портале: 17-05-2004
Allan Drazen
NBER Macroeconomics Annual.
2000.
Статья вышла через 25 лет после публикации Нордхауза (W. Nordhaus "The Political
Business Cycle." Review of Economic Studies 1975 Vol. 42: 169-189.), в которой была
предложена первая модель монетарного политико-делового цикла. Аллан Дрейзен дает
обзор теорий политико-деловых циклов и эмпирических проверок, возникших за последние
25 лет. Автор предлагает и тестирует собственную модель цикла, включающую
фискальную и денежную политики в рамках модели AFPM (active fiscal-passive monetary).
Research on the political business cycle since the mid-1970s is surveyed
and assessed. We argue that models based on monetary surprises as the driving force
are unconvincing explanations of either opportunistic or partisan cycles. Research
should concentrate on fiscal policy as the driving force, with monetary effects being
the result of accommodation of fiscal impulses. We present a model political business
cycle model that combines active fiscal policy and passive monetary policy (which
we term the AFPM model), which addresses a number of objections to earlier models,
We present some empirical tests supportive of this model.
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