NBER Macroeconomics Annual
Выпуски:
Опубликовано на портале: 17-05-2004
Allan Drazen
NBER Macroeconomics Annual.
2000.
Статья вышла через 25 лет после публикации Нордхауза (W. Nordhaus "The Political
Business Cycle." Review of Economic Studies 1975 Vol. 42: 169-189.), в которой была
предложена первая модель монетарного политико-делового цикла. Аллан Дрейзен дает
обзор теорий политико-деловых циклов и эмпирических проверок, возникших за последние
25 лет. Автор предлагает и тестирует собственную модель цикла, включающую
фискальную и денежную политики в рамках модели AFPM (active fiscal-passive monetary).
Research on the political business cycle since the mid-1970s is surveyed
and assessed. We argue that models based on monetary surprises as the driving force
are unconvincing explanations of either opportunistic or partisan cycles. Research
should concentrate on fiscal policy as the driving force, with monetary effects being
the result of accommodation of fiscal impulses. We present a model political business
cycle model that combines active fiscal policy and passive monetary policy (which
we term the AFPM model), which addresses a number of objections to earlier models,
We present some empirical tests supportive of this model.

