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Всего публикаций в данном разделе: 142


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Опубликовано на портале: 15-12-2005
Philippe Aghion, Peter Howitt
Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press, 1997
Advanced economies have experienced a tremendous increase in material well- being since the industrial revolution. Modern innovations such as personal computers, laser surgery, jet airplanes, and satellite communication have made us rich and transformed the way we live and work. But technological change has also brought with it a variety of social problems. It has been blamed at various times for increasing wage and income inequality, unemployment, obsolescence of physical and human capital, environmental deterioration, and prolonged recessions.
To understand the contradictory effects of technological change on the economy, one must delve into structural details of the innovation process to analyze how laws, institutions, customs, and regulations affect peoples' incentive and ability to create new knowledge and profit from it. To show how this can be done, Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt make use of Schumpeter's concept of creative destruction, the competitive process whereby entrepreneurs constantly seek new ideas that will render their rivals' ideas obsolete.
Whereas other books on endogenous growth stress a particular aspect, such as trade or convergence, this book provides a comprehensive survey of the theoretical and empirical debates raised by modern growth theory. It develops a powerful engine of analysis that sheds light not only on economic growth per se, but on the many other phenomena that interact with growth, such as inequality, unemployment, capital accumulation, education, competition, natural resources, international trade, economic cycles, and public policy.
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Опубликовано на портале: 28-08-2003
Joshua Aizenman, Ricardo Hausmann
This paper investigates budgetary rules for an economy characterized by inflation and volatile relative prices. We view the budgetary process as a limited contingencies contract between the treasury and the ministers. The budgetary process allows a minister, whose realized real budget falls short of a threshold, to ask for a treasury, the minister obtains the extra funds needed to meet the expenditure threshold level. The contract sets both the projected budget and the threshold real expenditure that justifies budget revisions. We identify the efficient contract and show that for significant state verification costs and for low volatility, the contract is non contingent (i.e., a nominal contract). For volatility significant enough the contract becomes state contingent -- it reduces the initial allocation [i.e., the projected budget,] and reduces the threshold associated with budgetary revisions. Both adjustments imply that in volatile economies the projected revenue understates the realized budget hence the average budget error is positive. As volatility increases, the contract converges to a full ex-post indexation. Hence, one of the costs of inflation is that nominal contracts lose their disciplining role in determining the real allocation. Instead, the economy shifts towards more costly arrangements like ex-post indexation, where discipline is accomplished by constant monitoring The last part of the paper uses the data from 12 Latin American countries to test the model's predictions. Our tests confirm that in an inflationary environment the planned budget is under-predicting the realized one -- higher inflation increases the budget error and the average budget error is positive.

Опубликовано на портале: 25-12-2003
Arega D. Alene, Rashid M. Hassan
Durban, 2003
This paper employed a robust stochastic efficiency decomposition technique that accounts for scale effects to derive the technical, allocative, and overall productive efficiency of two samples of farmers, participants and non-participants in the New Extension Program (NEP), in two agro-climatic zones in eastern Ethiopia. Using data for the 2001/2002 agricultural year, we find that both groups of farmers in the two zones have considerable overall productive inefficiencies. In the wet highlands, although the participants in NEP used a superior technology and have higher technical efficiencies, their allocative efficiencies turned out to be lower than the non-participant farmers, relative to their respective technologies. However, both groups exhibit similar productive efficiencies. In the dry lands, apart from using homogeneous production technologies, the two groups do not have significantly different technical and allocative efficiencies and that they have similar productive efficiencies.

Therefore, we find no empirical evidence of a positive impact of NEP on overall productive efficiency in both agro-climatic zones. An investigation of the influence of several socioeconomic and institutional factors revealed that education, credit, previous participation in extension programs, off-farm income and the share of the leading cropping system have a positive impact on efficiency.
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Опубликовано на портале: 04-01-2004
Sven Anders, Johannes Harshce, Roland Herrmann
Zaragoza, 2002
The objective of this paper is twofold. First, we intend to show how regional impacts of the CAP can be measured in terms of the price and revenue impacts. Second, new empirical evidence will be presented by use of the proposed method for regions in Germany. Data utilized are available over time (1986-99) and across commodities, so that regional support due to the CAP can be aggregated from support for the individual commodities.
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Опубликовано на портале: 08-10-2004
Masahiko Aoki, Yujiro Hayami
Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2000, 419 с.
This volume presents historical, contemporary, and theoretical perspectives on the role of local communities and social norms in the economic development process. Using historical evidence combined with recent developments in institutional economics involving game theory and contracts, it establishes that communities can enhance the development of a market economy under certain circumstances, and sheds light on what those circumstances are.

Опубликовано на портале: 31-08-2003
Alan J. Auerbach, Kevin A. Hassett
This paper explores optimal fiscal policy in an overlapping-generations general-equilibrium model under uncertainty and the impact on optimal policy of the introduction of a type of policy stickiness intended to account for the stylized fact that major reforms happen infrequently. In general, our analysis suggests not only that action should not be delayed, but further that action should actually be accelerated. The added realism of restrictions on the frequency of policy changes alters this result in two ways. The prospect of being unable to set policy in the future occasions even more precautionary saving today, if the government acts. However, the government may also choose not to set policy, and its inaction range is very asymmetric. Because the impact of its policies on the current elderly cannot be reversed in the future, the government is much more likely to choose inaction when fiscal tightening is called for. Thus, the optimal policy response over time might best be characterized by great caution in general, but punctuated by occasional periods of apparent irresponsibility.

Опубликовано на портале: 30-11-2003
Bruno Barbier, Robert R. Hearne, Jose Manuel Gonzalez, Andy Nelson
In Honduras, traditional coffee processing is the cause of two major problems: poor coffee quality and contaminated water. In this paper we present a method that determines the trade-off between economic efficiency and contamination in a Honduran sub-watershed. The method is a bioeconomic model based on mathematical programming that simulates the functioning of the interlinked economic and ecological processes in the sub-watershed. We compare various scenarii where the model is given the possibility of replacing traditional coffee processing plants with a network of improved ecological plants. For different levels of contamination the model determines the optimal location and size of new coffee processing plants along river streams by minimizing transport, variable and fixed costs. The restrictions of the system are the volume of wet coffee to be processed, the available stream water, and in the alternative scenarii, investment capital and contaminant concentration in the river. We apply the method to a typical sub-watershed in the hillsides of western Honduras and show that coffee quality can be improved and contamination can be reduced substantially at a relatively low cost.
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Опубликовано на портале: 31-12-2003
Peter J. Barry, Paul N. Ellinger, C.B. Baker, John A. Hopkin
USA: Prentice-Hall, 1999, 682 с.
Учебник по управлению финансами в сельском хозяйстве уровня студентов последнего года обучения в бакалавриате или первого года обучения в магистратуре, имеющими достаточное знакомство с микроэкономическими принципами и статистическими методами анализа данных. В издании рассматриваются прикладные концепции и методы финансового анализа, способы интерпретации финансовых данных и полученных результатов на сельскохозяйственном предприятии.

Опубликовано на портале: 24-12-2003
Catherine Benjamin, Chantal Gueguen, Magalie Houee
Durban, 2003
Previous quantitative assessments of likely impacts of recent reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy (in particular the Agenda 2000) differ across empirical studies. Differences are mainly due to the ways the policy instruments are taken into account (explicit modeling or implicit modeling i.e. using ad-valorem equivalents). The aim of this paper is to assess empirically the impacts of recent reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy and the consequences of the Mid-Term proposals on world cereals markets. We develop an econometric, dynamic, multi-product, partial equilibrium commodity model that focuses on arable crops. Major exporters and major importers are modeled separately, other countries being included in a rest of the world category. For the countries or regions explicitly integrated the model estimates supply, demand and trade. The model we develop has two important features:
i) the parameters estimated in the behavioral equations (supply and demand) satisfy regularity conditions and
ii) the agricultural policy instruments (in particular CAP instruments) are modeled in an explicit way.

In the empirical section, attention focuses on the world cereals market. We provide a market outlook through the year 2009 for three different scenarios: baseline projections and two scenarios based on different assumptions regarding the evolution of the Common Agricultural Policy (the Mid-Term Review scenario and the decoupling scenario). Estimated effects of the mid-term scenario on EU crop prices depend on the relationship between EU and world market prices.
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Опубликовано на портале: 24-12-2003
Ayalneh Bogale, Konrad Hagedorn, Benedikt Korf
Durban, 2003
This paper seeks to address the question: why does poverty persist in rural Ethiopia? We argue that it is largely a lack of entitlements to fundamental livelihood assets which urges poor rural farmers into livelihood diversification to make a living. We base our findings on empirical work, which is based on information gathered from a three-round survey of 149 rural households in Ethiopia during 1999/2000 cropping season. The FGT poverty index is employed to examine the extent and severity of rural poverty and reveals that nearly 40% of the sample households live below poverty line with average poverty gap of 0.047. The binary logit estimates shed light on factors behind the persistence of poverty and indicates that rural poverty is strongly linked to entitlement failures to crucial assets such as land, human capital and oxen. The study also reveals that poor households attempt to smooth their consumption and income through livelihood diversification, among which petty trading, charcoal making and fuelwood gathering for sale, brewing and
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Опубликовано на портале: 30-12-2003
Harry B. Bowen, Abraham Hollander, Jean-Marie Viaene
Hampshire: Palgrave Macmillan, 1998, 680 с.
This text is about positive and normative issues in international trade and focuses on methods of applied analysis. It includes essential theory sections and chapters dealing with imperfect competition and other new trade theory topics. It also identifies the implications and weaknesses of the various theories and models in terms of empirical implementation. In summary, the text provides a complete and up-to-date approach to applied international trade analysis.
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Опубликовано на портале: 31-12-2003
Martina Brockmeier, Claudia A. Herok, Oliver von Ledebur, Petra Salamon
Durban, 2003
Enlarging the EU presents a tremendous effort with obstacles for old and new member states especially in the agricultural sector. In this paper, impacts of a new accession round were analyzed with the help of the comparative-static general equilibrium model GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project). The standard version was extended to allow for a better representation of specific instruments of the Common Agriculture Policy and the EU budget.

To capture detailed effects in new member states, simulations were carried out for 12 candidate countries, the EU-15 and the rest of the world. As for products the focus lies on agriculture. Scenarios include an enlargement with and without the transfer of direct payments in the new member states, according to the proposal of the EU commission from January 2002. Simulations in a post-Agenda 2000 environment led to heterogeneous country specific impacts in the accession countries whereas the changes within EU-15 and the rest of the world were negligible. Due to adjustments in tariffs, trade balances of the new member states were deteriorating while welfare effects are positive. Transfer of direct payments led to more pronounced effects, especially with regard to output and trade. Without direct payments accession countries would be net contributors to the EU budget. This would change when they become eligible for this subsidy. In general, the analysis shows the importance of a country specific perspective.
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Опубликовано на портале: 02-09-2003
Gerard Caprio, Patrick Honohan, Joseph E. Stiglitz
Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2001
This volume addresses one of the most topical and controversial issues in banking and financial policy. It explains why governments have felt the need to liberalize banking and finance, for example, by privatizing banks and allowing interest rates to be set by the market. It describes how the consequences have not always been smooth, and considers how financial liberalizations could be approached better in the future. In addition to a clear and concise presentation of current theories and global experience, there are six carefully chosen country case studies.
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Опубликовано на портале: 02-03-2004
Michael P. Clements, David F. Hendry
Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press, 2001
In their second book on economic forecasting, Michael Clements and David Hendry ask why some practices seem to work empirically despite a lack of formal support from theory. After reviewing the conventional approach to economic forecasting, they look at the implications for causal modeling, present a taxonomy of forecast errors, and delineate the sources of forecast failure. They show that forecast-period shifts in deterministic factors--interacting with model misspecification, collinearity, and inconsistent estimation--are the dominant source of systematic failure. They then consider various approaches for avoiding systematic forecasting errors, including intercept corrections, differencing, co-breaking, and modeling regime shifts; they emphasize the distinction between equilibrium correction (based on cointegration) and error correction (automatically offsetting past errors). Their results on forecasting have wider implications for the conduct of empirical econometric research, model formulation, the testing of economic hypotheses, and model-based policy analyses.
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Опубликовано на портале: 12-12-2003
Beatrice I. Conradie, Dana L. Hoag
Durban, 2003
In this paper the incremental values of water are calculated for irrigators in the Fish-Sundays Scheme of South Africa's Eastern Cape province. The socio-political pressure for redistribution of agricultural resources provided the imperative for this study. The model of the Fish-Sundays Scheme reflects a survey of 50 000 ha of fodder and citrus production. It explicitly models the water demand on sixteen typical farms, for five irrigation technologies, six crops and four livestock activities. The existing allocation generates an average value of R0.0423/m3/year, which increases to R0.0681/m3/year if farmer-to-farmer trading is allowed given existing infrastructure. Unrestricted trade raises the average value to R0.0719/m3/year. The marginal cost of additional water in the source basin is R0.05/m3/year for the first 315 million m3 and R1.27/m3/year to extend capacity beyond that.
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