Всего публикаций в данном разделе: 2
Martin P. Financial globalization and emerging markets [Текст]. With or without crash? / P. Martin, H. Rey. Cambridge : National Bureau of Economic Research, 2002. 36 p. (NBER working paper series ; 9288 ). [книга]
Опубликовано на портале: 12-08-2004
Authors analyze the impact of financial globalization on asset prices, investment and the possibility of crashes driven by self-fulfilling expectations in emerging markets. In a two-country model with one emerging market (intermediate income level) and one industrialized country (high income level), they show that liberalization of capital flows increases asset prices, investment and income in the emerging market. However, for intermediate levels of international financial transaction costs, authors find that pessimistic expectations can be self-fulfilling, leading to a financial crash. The crash is accompanied by capital flight, a drop in income and investment below the financial autarky level and more market incompleteness. Authors show that emerging markets are more prone to financial crashes simply because they have a lower income level and not because of the existence of market failures (moral hazard or credit constraints), bad monetary policies or exchange rate regimes.
Razin A. A Brazilian debt-crisis model / A. Razin, E. Sadka. Tel Aviv: Tel Aviv University, 2002. (NBER Working Paper; No. 9211). [книга]
Опубликовано на портале: 21-01-2004
Authors develop a model that captures important features of debt crises of the Brazilian type. Its applicability to Brazil lies in the fact that (1) in Brazil the macro fundamentals were sound (e.g., a primary surplus, a relatively low debt/GDP ratio, etc.); and (2) in the Brazilian case the trigger appears to be the forthcoming elections, with an expected regime change.