Экономика » Экономика отраслевых рынков » Аграрная экономика » Рынки агропродовольственной продукции
Всего публикаций в данном разделе: 7
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Опубликовано на портале: 30-11-2003
Paul Dorosh, Moataz El-Said, Hans Lofgren
2003
In Uganda, as in much of sub-Saharan Africa, poverty is concentrated in
rural areas. Because agriculture
accounts for a large share of incomes for these households, policies and
external shocks that affect
agriculture, including shifts in world prices, changes in agricultural productivity,
and reductions in marketing
costs, may have significant effects on rural poverty. In this paper, we use a Computable
General Equilibrium
(CGE) model of the Ugandan economy, explicitly designed to capture regional
variations in agricultural
production and household incomes, to examine the implications of these policy changes
and shocks.
Simulation results suggest that a doubling of area planted to coffee (the government.s target) would increase rural consumption by less than 2.0 percent, because of an estimated 10 percent decline in the world price of robusta coffee and an 11.3 percent real exchange rate appreciation of the Ugandan shilling. Smaller productivity increases in food crops may have greater potential to raise rural incomes, provided that markets perform well and producer incentives are maintained. A five percent increase in agricultural productivity raises consumption by 1.3 to 2.1 percent among rural households and lowers food prices by 3.4 to 3.8 percent relative to the CPI, thus benefiting households with high food consumption shares. Reducing agricultural marketing margins by 30 percent leads to increases of 2.3 to 4.1 percent in consumption of farm households, with the largest gains in regions where consumption out of own production is lower.
Simulation results suggest that a doubling of area planted to coffee (the government.s target) would increase rural consumption by less than 2.0 percent, because of an estimated 10 percent decline in the world price of robusta coffee and an 11.3 percent real exchange rate appreciation of the Ugandan shilling. Smaller productivity increases in food crops may have greater potential to raise rural incomes, provided that markets perform well and producer incentives are maintained. A five percent increase in agricultural productivity raises consumption by 1.3 to 2.1 percent among rural households and lowers food prices by 3.4 to 3.8 percent relative to the CPI, thus benefiting households with high food consumption shares. Reducing agricultural marketing margins by 30 percent leads to increases of 2.3 to 4.1 percent in consumption of farm households, with the largest gains in regions where consumption out of own production is lower.


Опубликовано на портале: 30-11-2003
Atanu Ghoshray, Tim Lloyd
2003
This paper brings time series techniques to bear on the relationships between the
prices of the principal types
of wheat traded internationally. In all, the relationships between eleven wheat prices
(categorised by wheat
quality, harvest date and port of despatch) are scrutinised to uncover
the structure of the wheat market
implicit in the behaviour its prices reveal. The statistical evidence supports the
notion of a highly integrated
market that is segmented according to wheat strength . the principal determinant
of end-use. Three segments
are identified: a market for "strong" (bread-making) wheat, another for
"weak" (confectionary products-
making) wheat and a third for medium strength wheat suitable for unleavened breads
and noodles. Whilst
informative, market integration - detected by cointegration among prices . is not
altogether surprising, yet
the presence of cointegration implies a causal structure, which is of more cogent
interest. Among a number
of complementary techniques, linkages are uncovered using an innovative
concept of irreducible
cointegration vectors (Davidson 1998, Barassi et al 2001) which provides new evidence
on price linkages.
Statistical evidence is robust and not test-dependent. Specifically, we find a dominant
price leader in each
sub-market. In terms of its pricing, the EU is found to play a passive role in the
world market, confirming a
widely held view.


Опубликовано на портале: 29-11-2003
Steen Koekebakker, Gudbrand Lien
2002
Empirical evidence suggests that agricultural futures price movements have fat-tailed
distributions and exhibit sudden and unexpected price jumps. There is also evidence
that the
volatility of futures prices contains a term structure depending on both calendar-time
and time to
maturity. This paper extends Bates (1991) jump-diffusion option pricing model by
including both
seasonal and maturity effects in volatility. An in-sample fit to market option prices
on wheat
futures shows that our model outperforms previous models considered in the literature.
A
numerical example illustrates the economic significance of our results for option
valuation.


Опубликовано на портале: 29-11-2003
Markus Lips, Peter Rieder
2002
This paper discusses an approach to implement output quotas in the GTAP model which
permits an endogenous adjustment of both the supplied quantity and the quota rent.
Since the
quota rent is interpreted as additional earnings of the factors used no change of
the worldwide
GTAP data base is required. Several modifications of the GTAP model and two exogenous
coefficients are necessary. Considering uncertain values of one of the coefficients,
systematic
sensitivity analysis is applied.
The abolishment of the raw milk quota in the European Union would lead to a remarkable
decrease in raw milk prices in most member countries. The raw milk production increases
in
Denmark, Ireland, Luxembourg and the Netherlands while it declines in Greece and
Portugal.
In the other member countries the raw milk production changes slightly.


Опубликовано на портале: 30-12-2003
Tim Lloyd, Steve McCorriston, Wyn Morgan, Tony Rayner
Durban, 2003
This paper is concerned with the impact of the BSE crisis in the UK
and focuses on price transmission
between retail and farm prices. From a theoretical perspective we show that market
power has an effect on
price transmission between retail and farm prices following a demand shock. The empirical
results suggest
that the impact of a food scare on farm prices to be more than double that of retail
prices, the direction of this
effect being consistent with the impact of oligopoly dominating the effect (if any)
of oligopsony.
However, important in assessing the full impact of a food scare is the ability of consumers to switch into substitute products. This is also evident following the BSE crisis with the availability of substitutes contributing significantly to the overall impact on price adjustment.
However, important in assessing the full impact of a food scare is the ability of consumers to switch into substitute products. This is also evident following the BSE crisis with the availability of substitutes contributing significantly to the overall impact on price adjustment.


Опубликовано на портале: 04-01-2004
Hermann Lotze, Steffen Noleppa
Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2000, 429-443 с.
The paper discusses the general need for institutional innovation in the Russian
Federation. An attempt to establish a Market Information System for the agro-food
sector in Tula Oblast is taken as an example illustrating specific implementation
problems. From the experience gained in this case, the authors derive some recommendations
for improving institutional change in the process of transition. Important issues
here are the adoption of a more general approach towards human resource development,
the scheduling of longer time horizons in support projects, and improved vertical
and horizontal co-ordination within the institutional network.


Опубликовано на портале: 30-11-2003
Arjan Ruijs, Caspar Schweigman, Clemens Lutz
2003
Reductions in transport and transaction costs are expected to have a major effect
on the functioning of food
markets in developing countries. For many developing countries, this is
a relevant issue as it may have
important consequences for the food markets in urban and rural deficit areas. A partial
equilibrium model is
presented to analyze the effects of reduced costs on cereal price formation, inter-regional
cereal trade, and
farmers' and traders' storage strategies for the case of Burkina Faso. Our results
show that the high
expectations with regard to the direct effects of cost reductions on food prices
and food availability require
some nuance. First, the effects of even a huge reduction of transport costs only
will be small. Secondly, an
element which is often neglected is that constructing a road between two
cities may have unintended
negative consequences on the competitive position of farmers and traders
in other regions. Finally, it is
concluded that only if transport and transaction costs are reduced simultaneously,
both consumers and
farmers will benefit significantly.

